About this report
The Probation Board for Northern Ireland (PBNI) Annual Caseload Statistics reports provide an overview of the number of service users and the caseload i.e. the number of individual Orders and Licences supervised by PBNI at the end of each financial year, as well as providing comparisons with previous years. The latest annual report and accompanying data tables are available here.
This quarterly series is a subset of the annual information with data provided for key aspects of the work carried out by PBNI. Not all tables presented in the annual report have been replicated quarterly, as in some cases there is minimal change in the figures from quarter to quarter. For example, the gender breakdown of service users and victims remains largely consistent over time.
The quarterly updates for reports completed and victims registered should be treated as provisional as they may be revised when figures are finalised during the production of the end of year annual report.
This publication is in a new HTML format which includes interactive graphics and the ability to automatically download the data presented in the charts.
Statistics on PBNI caseload are collated and produced by statisticians seconded to PBNI from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards by emailing statsandresearch@probation-ni.gov.uk. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.
Background information about the different types of Orders and Licences, as well as the different reports completed by PBNI, is available in Appendix 1. Technical notes about the source, presentation and quality of the data are available in Appendix 2.
Data in all tables and charts in this report are available from the PBNI website.
Key Facts
Point in time data trends
Caseload supervised
Caseload supervised31 December 2024 | Change from previous quarter | Change from equivalent quarter in previous year |
---|---|---|
5,830 | 🡇 1.2% | 🡅 0.4% |
Service users supervised
Service users supervised31 December 2024 | Change from previous quarter | Change from equivalent quarter in previous year |
---|---|---|
4,202 | 🡇 1.6% | 🡇 0.8% |
On 31 December 2024:
4,202 service users were supervised by PBNI, a decrease of 0.8% on the equivalent figure for 31 December 2023 (4,238).
The caseload i.e. the number of individual Orders and Licences supervised by PBNI was 5,830, an increase of 0.4% on the equivalent figure for 31 December 2023 (5,807).
Determinate Custodial Sentences accounted for the largest proportion of caseload (36.7%) supervised by PBNI, followed by Probation Orders (28.9%).
Over one-third (34.7%) of service users supervised by PBNI were aged 30 to 39.
Of the service users being supervised by PBNI, 28% were identified as high risk under the Assessment, Case Management & Evaluation System (ACE).
679 service users (16.2% of all service users supervised by PBNI) were categorised under the Public Protection Arrangements for Northern Ireland (PPANI).
4.2% of service users supervised by PBNI (175 service users) were assessed as Significant Risk of Serious Harm to Others (SROSH).
Quarterly data trends
New caseload
Service users supervisedOctober to December 2024 | Change from previous quarter | Change from equivalent quarter in previous year |
---|---|---|
796 | 🡅 23.6% | 🡇 4.8% |
Reports completed (excluding letters)
Reports completed (excluding letters)October to December 2024 | Change from previous quarter | Change from equivalent quarter in previous year |
---|---|---|
1,599 | 🡅 7.6% | 🡇 3.9% |
New victims registered
New victims registeredOctober to December 2024 | Change from previous quarter | Change from equivalent quarter in previous year |
---|---|---|
94 | 🡅 9.3% | 🡅 13.3% |
Between 1 October 2024 and 31 December 2024:
PBNI commenced supervision of 796 new Orders and Licences. This new caseload involved 683 service users. This is a reduction (4.8%) on the equivalent figure for Quarter 3 2023/24 (836).
1,599 reports were completed by PBNI staff (excluding letters); the corresponding figure for 2023/24 was 1,664. There has been an overall reduction in the number of reports completed by PBNI annually. There were 7,101 reports (excluding letters) completed between 1 April 2022 and 31 March 2023, this compares to 6,421 reports between 1 April 2023 and 31 March 2024.
The number of new victims registered with PBNI was 94, a 13.3% increase on the figure for 1 October 2023 to 31 December 2023 (83).
Point in time data trends
Figure 1 Service users and caseload supervised by PBNI, 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024
Figure 2 Caseload supervised by PBNI by type of supervision, 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024
Figure 3 PBNI caseload by type of Order/Licence, 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024
Figure 4 Service users supervised by PBNI by age, 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024
Figure 5 Service users supervised by PBNI by ACE category, 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024
Assessment, Case Management & Evaluation System (ACE) is used to assess the likelihood of re-offending within a two-year period, based on the prevalence of various social, personal, and offending related issues. A scoring system is used to identify the likelihood of re-offending with a score of 0 to 15 indicating a low risk, a score of 16 to 29 indicating a medium risk and a score of 30 or more indicating a high risk.
Figure 6 Percentage of service users categorised under PPANI, 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024
Public Protection Arrangements for Northern Ireland (PPANI) provides assessment and management of the risks posed by certain sexual and violent individuals. Service users categorised under PPANI are assigned a category from one to three, with Category 1 indicating low risk and Category 3 indicating high risk.
Figure 7 Service users categorised under PPANI by category, 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024
Figure 8 Percentage of service users assessed as SROSH, 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024
Service users assessed as Significant Risk of Serious Harm to Others (SROSH), are considered to present a high likelihood of committing a further offence, causing serious harm.
Quarterly data trends
Figure 9 New caseload supervised by PBNI and count of service users involved, Quarter 3 2022/23 to Quarter 3 2024/25
Table 1 New caseload supervised by PBNI by type of Order/Licence, Quarter 3 2022/23 to Quarter 3 2024/25
Type of Order/Licence | Oct- Dec 22 | Jan- Mar 23 | Apr- Jun 23 | Jul- Sep 23 | Oct- Dec 23 | Jan- Mar 24 | Apr- Jun 24 | Jul- Sep 24 | Oct- Dec 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Combination Order | 74 | 100 | 91 | 85 | 102 | 106 | 106 | 92 | 102 |
Community Services Order (CSO) | 122 | 150 | 120 | 132 | 171 | 206 | 175 | 157 | 138 |
Probation Order (PO) | 274 | 341 | 315 | 250 | 329 | 298 | 293 | 228 | 279 |
Enhanced Combination Order (ECO) | 21 | 32 | 27 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 35 | 13 | 33 |
Determinate Custodial Sentence (DCS) | 144 | 209 | 248 | 104 | 179 | 183 | 203 | 124 | 204 |
All Other Orders/Licences [Note 1] | 27 | 18 | 33 | 19 | 34 | 17 | 19 | 30 | 40 |
New caseload | 662 | 850 | 834 | 610 | 836 | 833 | 831 | 644 | 796 |
[Note 1] Other Orders/Licences include Custody Probation Orders, Extended Custodial Sentences (ECS), GB Transfer Licences, Indeterminate Custodial Sentences (ICS), Juvenile Justice Centre Orders (JJCO), Life Sentence Licences, Sex Offender Licences, Supervised Activity Orders and Non Statutory Orders.
Figure 10 Reports completed (excluding letters) by PBNI, Quarter 3 2022/23 to Quarter 3 2024/25
Table 2 Reports completed by PBNI by type of report, Quarter 3 2022/23 to Quarter 3 2024/25
Type of Report | Oct- Dec 22 | Jan- Mar 23 | Apr- Jun 23 | Jul- Sep 23 | Oct- Dec 23 | Jan- Mar 24 | Apr- Jun 24 | Jul- Sep 24 | Oct- Dec 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Addendum Report | 205 | 210 | 203 | 150 | 189 | 164 | 182 | 179 | 157 |
Breach Report | 197 | 194 | 184 | 164 | 158 | 150 | 128 | 140 | 159 |
Crown Court Report (CCR)/Pre-Sentence Report (PSR) | 321 | 337 | 327 | 193 | 319 | 315 | 341 | 217 | 373 |
Magistrates’ Court Report (MCR) | 897 | 843 | 739 | 749 | 776 | 776 | 762 | 730 | 641 |
Short Adjournment Report (SAR) [Note 2] | z | 88 | 107 | 65 | 133 | 133 | 131 | 107 | 129 |
Other Reports [Note 3] | 116 | 86 | 104 | 86 | 57 | 81 | 108 | 94 | 119 |
Letter to Court | 584 | 658 | 477 | 415 | 442 | 398 | 480 | 406 | 442 |
Missing Report Type | 29 | 98 | 27 | 22 | 32 | 18 | 28 | 19 | 21 |
Total Reports (including letters) | 2,349 | 2,514 | 2,168 | 1,844 | 2,106 | 2,035 | 2,160 | 1,892 | 2,041 |
Total Reports (excluding letters) | 1,765 | 1,856 | 1,691 | 1,429 | 1,664 | 1,637 | 1,680 | 1,486 | 1,599 |
[Note 2] Short Adjournment Reports (SARs) were not introduced until 2023.
[Note 3] Other Reports include Probation Officers Report, Recall Report, Substance Misuse Court (SMC) Progress Report, SMC Suitability Report, SMC Assessment & Intervention Report, Revocation and Home Circumstances Report
Figure 11 Victims registered with PBNI, Quarter 3 2022/23 to Quarter 3 2024/25
PBNI operate a Victim Information Scheme to assist victims of crime. This scheme is one of three victim information schemes in Northern Ireland. PBNI’s scheme is managed by Probation’s Victim Information Unit (VIU) with staff working closely with colleagues in the Northern Ireland Prison Service (NIPS) in a co-located team. All schemes are voluntary, so victims won’t receive information about the sentence of the person who has offended unless they have registered. Further details on all three schemes can be found on NI Direct’s website.
Appendix 1: Technical Notes
Data Source
In this report the primary data source is the PBNI’s electronic case management system (ECMS), used for the day to day management of cases and orders supervised by PBNI. Prior to April 2020 data was sourced from the Probation Information Management System (PIMS).
Data relating to victims is collated and validated by the PBNI Victim Information Unit and provided to the PBNI Statistics and Research Team on request.
Analysis and Presentation of Statistics
The data used in this report is extracted using the reporting tool within ECMS (Report Studio) and a custom build query tool called ‘the Cube’ which operates within Microsoft Excel. The data is validated, maintained and analysed using a combination of Microsoft Excel and the programming language R.
For ease of use, figures are presented as whole numbers throughout the text, tables and charts. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Data tables are published alongside this bulletin in Microsoft Excel.
Data Quality and Validation
The PBNI’s electronic case management system (ECMS) is a live system with multiple users that relies on staff to input information. Therefore, like many administrative systems, the resultant statistics are potentially subject to error, timely updating of information or to the system not being able to cater for every scenario encountered. As the system is used for the day to day case management, this helps to moderate these issues. A suite of validation reports have been designed to help administrative staff identify errors and make corrections, where possible.
Appendix 2: Definitions
See Appendix 2: Definitions here.