Executive Summary
This report provides an overview of the number of service users and the caseload i.e. the number of individual Orders and Licences supervised by the Probation Board for Northern Ireland (PBNI) on 31 March 2025, as well as providing comparisons with previous years.
The key findings are as follows:
On 31 March 2025, 4,107 service users were supervised by PBNI, a decrease of 3.5% on the equivalent figure for 31 March 2024 (4,258).
The caseload supervised by PBNI decreased by 2.4% between 31 March 2024 (5,886) and 31 March 2025 (5,743).
Determinate Custodial Sentences (DCS) accounted for the largest proportion of caseload (37.3%) supervised by PBNI in March 2025, followed by Probation Orders (28.4%).
As in previous years, males accounted for the majority of service users being supervised (89.9%).
In March 2025, over one-third (35.4%) of service users supervised by PBNI were aged 30 to 39.
The PBNI Belfast Directorate were supervising the largest proportion of service users in March 2025 (34.3%), followed by the Rural Directorate (29.3%).
Of the service users being supervised by PBNI on 31 March 2025, 28.7% were identified as high risk under the Assessment, Case Management & Evaluation System (ACE).
On 31 March 2025, 661 service users (16.1% of all service users supervised by PBNI) were categorised under the Public Protection Arrangements for Northern Ireland (PPANI).
In March 2025, 4.4% of service users supervised by PBNI (182 service users) were assessed as Significant Risk of Serious Harm to Others (SROSH).
During 2024/25, 6,397 reports were completed by PBNI staff (excluding letters); the corresponding figure for 2023/24 was 6,421.
The number of new victims registered with PBNI during 2024/25 was 387, a 19.8% increase on the 2023/24 figure (323).
The total number of victims registered with PBNI increased by 17.2% from 483 on 31 March 2024 to 566 on 31 March 2025.
Introduction
Context
The Probation Board for Northern Ireland (PBNI) is a Non-Departmental Public Body sponsored by the Department of Justice.
Probation’s aim is to rehabilitate, reintegrate and reduce re-offending, by changing lives for safer communities. To do this Probation works:
In Courts, providing pre-sentence reports to assist Judges to make decisions.
In local communities, supervising community-based Orders and post-custody Licences.
In Prisons, preparing prisoners subject to Licences for release.
Directly with registered victims of crime through the Victim Information Scheme.
About this report
Statistics on PBNI caseload are collated and produced by statisticians seconded to the Probation Board for Northern Ireland (PBNI) from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).
Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards by emailing statsandresearch@probation-ni.gov.uk. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.
This report presents data on the caseload i.e. the number of individual Orders and Licences being supervised by the Probation Board for Northern Ireland (PBNI) as of 31 March 2025 by type of Order/Licence along with comparisons with previous years.
Data are also presented at service user level as individual service users can be under supervision with PBNI for multiple Orders/Licences at any given time. In particular, breakdowns by gender, age and PBNI Directorate are provided. Some detail on the assessment of service users’ likelihood to reoffend and those identified as higher risk, is also included.
The report also presents data on the number of reports completed by PBNI and the number of victims registered with PBNI by gender throughout the financial year.
This report is in a new HTML format which includes interactive graphics and the ability to automatically download the data presented in the charts.
Previously this report included data by offence category, however due to quality concerns relating to how the offence category was assigned when there were multiple offences this information has been removed. This methodology will be kept under review.
Technical notes about the source, presentation and quality of the data are available in Appendix 1. Background information about the different types of Orders/Licences and sentences as well as the different reports completed by PBNI is available in Appendix 2.
Data in all tables and charts in this report are available from the PBNI website.
Service users and caseload supervised by PBNI
On 31 March 2025, 4,107 service users were supervised by PBNI, a decrease of 3.5% on the equivalent figure for 31 March 2024 (4,258). Prior to 2025 this figure had increased year on year from a low of 3,740 following the Covid-19 pandemic.
The caseload i.e. the number of individual Orders and Licences supervised by PBNI decreased by 2.4% between March 2024 (5,886) and March 2025 (5,743). The 2024 figure was the highest level of caseload recorded on 31 March over the last five years.
Figure 1 Service users and caseload supervised by PBNI, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
Types of Order/Licence
Looking at community-based Orders supervised in March 2025, the largest proportion (28.4%) was attributed to Probation Orders (PO), although this is a decrease from a high of 35.5% in March 2022. The proportion of Community Service Orders (CSO) has decreased in the last year to 8.3% while the proportion of Combination Orders as remained at 9.5%. The proportion of Enhanced Combination Orders (ECO) has decreased over the last five years reaching a low of 2.6% in 2025.
Determinate Custodial Sentences (DCS) account for the largest proportion of the post-custody Licences supervised by PBNI. This figure has increased year on year from 29.0% in March 2021 to 37.3% in 2025.
Figure 2 PBNI caseload by type of Order/Licence, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
Service user demographics
In March 2025 males accounted for 89.9% of service users being supervised. This figure has remained largely consistent ranging between 89.9% and 88.6% over the last five years.
Figure 3 Service users supervised by PBNI by gender, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
In March 2021 the largest proportion of service users being supervised by PBNI were in the 20 to 29 age group (32.5%). However, in March 2022 the proportion of service users in the 30 to 39 age group (33.8%) surpassed those in the 20 to 29 age group (30.9%). This trend has continued with the proportion of service users in the 20 to 29 age group reaching a low of 26.3% in March 2025. The proportion in the 30 to 39 age group saw a slight decrease from 35.7% in March 2024 to 35.4% in March 2025.
Between March 2021 and March 2025, the proportion of service users in the under 20 age group has decreased whilst the proportions in the older age groups (40 to 49, 50 to 59 and 60 and over) have generally increased.
Figure 4 Service users supervised by PBNI by age, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
Service users by PBNI Directorate
Over the last three years the proportion of service users supervised by each Directorate within PBNI has remained broadly consistent. In March 2025 34.3% were supervised by the PBNI Belfast Directorate, 29.3% by the PBNI Rural Directorate and 22.9% by the PBNI Prison Directorate.
Figure 5 Service users supervised by PBNI by Directorate, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
Assessment, Case Management & Evaluation System (ACE)
The Assessment, Case Management & Evaluation System (ACE) is used to assess the likelihood of re-offending within a two-year period, based on the prevalence of various social, personal, and offending related issues. A scoring system is used to identify the likelihood of re-offending with a score of 0 to 15 indicating a low risk, a score of 16 to 29 indicating a medium risk and a score of 30 or more indicating a high risk.
Of those service users supervised by PBNI on 31 March 2025, 94.8% had an ACE assessment completed. This is a slight increase on the figure for 31 March 2024 (94.2%) which was the lowest proportion seen over the last five years.
In March 2025 over two-fifths (43.4%) of service users were identified as medium risk. This compares to 41.1% in March 2021. The proportion of service users identified as high risk in March 2025 was 28.7%, a slight decrease from March 2024 (28.9%) which saw the highest proportion over the five year period. The proportion of service users identified as low risk increased from 21.9% in 2024, which was the lowest proportion over the five year period, to 22.7% in 2025.
Figure 6 Service users supervised by PBNI by ACE category, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
Public Protection Arrangements for Northern Ireland (PPANI)
Public Protection Arrangements for Northern Ireland (PPANI) provides assessment and management of the risks posed by certain sexual and violent individuals. Service users categorised under PPANI are assigned a category from one to three, with Category 1 indicating low risk and Category 3 indicating high risk.
On 31 March 2025 661 service users (16.1% of all service users supervised by PBNI) were assessed and assigned a PPANI category. The proportion of service users categorised under PPANI has been rising year on year since March 2021 when 11.6% of all service users supervised by PBNI (433 service users) were assigned a PPANI category.
Just over two thirds (67.6%) of service users categorised under PPANI were assigned to Category 1 in March 2025. This is a reduction from 74.1% in March 2024. In contrast the proportion of service users assigned to Category 2 has increased from 21.8% in March 2024 to 27.5% in March 2025. The proportion of service users assigned to Category 3 has remained largely consistent over the last five years.
Figure 7 Service users categorised under PPANI by category, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
Significant Risk of Serious Harm to Others (SROSH)
Service users assessed as Significant Risk of Serious Harm to Others (SROSH), are considered to present a high likelihood of committing a further offence, causing serious harm.
In March 2025 4.4% of service users supervised by PBNI (182 service users) were assessed as SROSH. Prior to 2025 this figure had increased year on year from 3.5% in March 2021 (130 service users). Each year the majority of these service users have been allocated to the PBNI Prison Directorate (81.3% in March 2025).
Figure 8 Service users assessed as SROSH by Directorate, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
Reports Completed by PBNI
PBNI staff fulfil a crucial role at Court. In particular they prepare a wide range of reports which assist the Judge or Magistrate to determine the most suitable type of sentence to impose or notify them of the circumstances surrounding breach of an order. PBNI staff also produce reports for the Parole Commissioners for Northern Ireland (PCNI) in relation to licences/sentences, however due to current recording practices statistics relating to the totality of these reports are not currently available.
During 2024/25, 6,397 reports were completed by PBNI staff. An additional 1,797 letters were prepared and sent to court. There has been a 0.4% reduction in the number of reports (excluding letters) completed between 2023/24 and 2024/25. However, the figure is 51.3% higher than the figure for 2020/21 when the Covid-19 pandemic prevented many Courts from sitting.
Magistrates Court Reports (MCRs) account for the highest proportion of reports completed (excluding letters), however this figure has reduced from 52.2% in 2021/22 to 45.0% in 2024/25. Crown Court Reports (CCR) and Pre Sentence Reports (PSR) have also reduced over the same time period from 21.5% to 18.4%.
Short Adjournment Reports (SAR) were introduced in February 2023 as a pilot scheme. The scheme ran for 18 months, following which the reports were rolled out as part of routine practice. These reports accounted for 7.8% of the total reports completed (excluding letters) in 2024/25.
Table 1 Reports completed by PBNI by type of report, 2020/21 to 2024/25
| Type of Report | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addendum Report | 260 | 791 | 819 | 706 | 711 |
| Breach Report | 275 | 722 | 807 | 656 | 572 |
| Crown Court Report (CCR)/Pre Sentence Report (PSR) | 399 | 1,523 | 1,266 | 1,154 | 1,175 |
| Magistrates’ Court Report (MCR) | 1,607 | 3,706 | 3,615 | 3,040 | 2,877 |
| Letter to Court | 719 | 2,167 | 2,338 | 1,732 | 1,797 |
| Short Adjournment Report (SAR) [Note 1] | z | z | 88 | 438 | 498 |
| Other Reports [Note 2] | 172 | 344 | 373 | 328 | 464 |
| Missing Report Type | 1,516 | 10 | 133 | 99 | 100 |
| Total Reports (including letters) | 4,948 | 9,263 | 9,439 | 8,153 | 8,194 |
| Total Reports (excluding letters) | 4,229 | 7,096 | 7,101 | 6,421 | 6,397 |
[Note 1] Short Adjournment Reports (SARs) were not introduced until 2023.
[Note 2] Other Reports include Probation Officers Report, Recall Report, Substance Misuse Court (SMC) Progress Report, SMC Suitability Report, SMC Assessment & Intervention Report, Revocation and Home Circumstances Report
Victims Registered with PBNI
PBNI operate a Victim Information Scheme to assist victims of crime. This scheme is one of three victim information schemes in Northern Ireland. PBNI’s scheme is managed by Probation’s Victim Information Unit (VIU) with staff working closely with colleagues in the Northern Ireland Prison Service (NIPS) in a co-located team. All schemes are voluntary, so victims won’t receive information about the sentence of the person who has offended unless they have registered.
The purpose of the Victim Information Schemes is to give victims information about the Criminal Justice System and key stages of the sentence of the person who has offended. Within PBNI registered victims will be provided with information on the sentence being supervised by PBNI and will receive this information in a manner which is accessible, understandable and supportive. Victims also have the opportunity to discuss their concerns about the person who has offended, be involved in direct or indirect restorative contact with the person, if they wish, and take part in the preparation of a victim report for the Parole Commissioners.
Further details on all three schemes can be found on the NI Direct website.
The number of new victims registered with PBNI during 2024/25 was 387. This is a 19.8% increase on the 2023/24 figure (323) and a 49.4% increase on the figure for 2020/21 (259).
It should be noted a change was made to the way PBNI contact victims. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic a letter and information leaflet providing details of the scheme were posted to the victim. During the pandemic PBNI moved to contacting victims by telephone with a letter being sent as follow-up. This new approach is currently still in operation.
Figure 9 New victims registered with PBNI, 2020/21 to 2024/25
The total number of victims registered with PBNI increased by 17.2% from 483 on 31 March 2024 to 566 on 31 March 2025. This is the highest number of victims registered over the five year period between March 2021 and March 2025.
In March 2025 females accounted for 71.7% of the total victims registered with PBNI. This figure has fluctuated between 64.7% and 73.0% over the last five years.
Figure 10 Total victims registered with PBNI by gender, 31 March 2021 to 31 March 2025
Appendix 1: Technical Notes
Data Source
In this report the primary data source is the PBNI’s electronic case management system (ECMS), used for the day to day management of cases and orders supervised by PBNI. Prior to April 2020 data was sourced from the Probation Information Management System (PIMS).
Data relating to victims is collated and validated by the PBNI Victim Information Unit and provided to the PBNI Statistics and Research Team on request.
Analysis and Presentation of Statistics
The data used in this report is extracted using the reporting tool within ECMS (Report Studio) and a custom build query tool called ‘the Cube’ which operates within Microsoft Excel. The data is validated, maintained and analysed using a combination of Microsoft Excel and the programming language R.
For ease of use, figures are presented as whole numbers throughout the text, tables and charts. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Data tables are published alongside this bulletin in Microsoft Excel.
Data Quality and Validation
The PBNI’s electronic case management system (ECMS) is a live system with multiple users that relies on staff to input information. Therefore, like many administrative systems, the resultant statistics are potentially subject to error, timely updating of information or to the system not being able to cater for every scenario encountered. As the system is used for the day to day case management, this helps to moderate these issues. A suite of validation reports have been designed to help administrative staff identify errors and make corrections, where possible.
Historical data was revised in the Annual Caseload Statistics Report 2021/22 to ensure records with equivalent case statuses were included. As a result, data published prior to this is not directly comparable.
Data by offence category, previously included within this report, has been removed due to quality concerns relating to how the offence category was assigned when there were multiple offences. This will be kept under review.
Appendix 2: Definitions
See Appendix 2: Definitions here.