Key findings

This research examined the factors associated with leaving employment between 2011 and 2021, with a particular focus on disability status, socio-economic conditions and household circumstances.

Overall, the main factors associated with leaving employment were:

  • Being female.
  • Reporting disability, particularly persistent disability (reported in both 2011 and 2021) or disability acquired during this period.
  • Self-reported poor mental health.
  • Providing high levels of unpaid care (35 or more hours per week).
  • Socio-economic disadvantage, including living in social rented accommodation and in lone-parent households.
  • Age 40-49 years.

Among males, leaving employment was associated with:

  • Being single.
  • Being separated or divorced.
  • Reporting neurodiversity.
  • Having a physical health condition.
  • Living in urban areas of Derry City and Strabane Local Government District or in western and northern areas of Belfast Local Government District.

Among females, having a child with a disability in the household or having three or more dependent children was associated with leaving employment.

Note: Disability status captures changes between 2011 and 2021. Age is referenced to 2011 while all other characteristics reflect 2021 status. Those who left employment due to retirement are excluded. Definitions of health, socio-economic, household and area variables are provided in Tables 1 and 2.


Background

Improving labour market participation and reducing economic inactivity are longstanding policy priorities in Northern Ireland (see reference 1). Policy development can be enhanced by gaining a greater understanding of the characteristics associated with leaving employment over time.

People with disabilities and those with long-term health conditions continue to experience poorer labour market outcomes (see reference 2). Having a disability remains one of the strongest predictors of not being in employment. In 2021, only 38% of people with disabilities were in employment in Northern Ireland, compared to 86% of people without disabilities, resulting in a disability employment gap of 48 percentage points (see reference 3). People with disabilities are also likely to leave employment once in work, highlighting barriers to both labour market entry and retention (see reference 4).

Using Census data, this analysis examined those who were in employment in 2011 and no longer in employment in 2021, focusing on those aged 20–49 in 2011. The analysis explored the health, household and socio-economic factors associated with being more likely to leave employment over this period, supporting government objectives to increase labour market participation. The full research report, along with a complementary policy brief on factors associated with moving into employment (2011–2021), is available on the NISRA-led research website.

Data source

The analysis used the Northern Ireland Longitudinal study (NILS), a high-quality linked dataset combining Census data from 2011 and 2021, to examine employment transitions. In the linked 2011-2021 dataset, the sample of individuals aged 20-49 in 2011 represented 22% of the 2011 Northern Ireland population (167,784 out of 755,704) (see reference 5).

Results

(i) Descriptive characteristics: who moves?

Detailed results are provided in the research report (Annex 2, Tables 3 and 4), with separate breakdowns by sex provided in Annex 3, Tables 5 and 6. See Tables 1 and 2 for definitions of health, socio-economic, household and area variables.

In the commentary below, the comparison group is those who were employed in both 2011 and 2021.

Sex, age and marital status

  • Compared with those who were employed in both 2011 and 2021, those who left employment by 2021 were more likely to be female (62% vs 50%) with a higher proportion aged 40-49 years (39% vs 34%).
  • Those leaving employment were more often single (37% vs 24%) or divorced/separated (19% vs 11%).

Education and health

Those who left employment were more likely to:

  • Have no formal qualifications (27% vs 9%).
  • Report a disability in both 2011 and 2021 (13% vs 2%).
  • Have acquired a disability between 2011 and 2021 (36% vs 9%).
  • Report poor mental health either alone or in combination with other health conditions (29% vs 5%).
  • Have a physical health condition (44% vs 17%).

Other
Those who left employment were more likely to:

  • Live in private-rented (21% vs 11%) or social-rented housing (23% vs 5%).
  • Live in a lone-parent household (22% vs 10%).
  • Provide a high level of unpaid care (35+ hours per week: 14% vs 5%).
  • Live in the 20% most deprived areas within Northern Ireland (23% vs 16%).
  • Live in urban areas (69% vs 63%).

Sex-specific patterns were also evident (see Annex 3, Table 6 of the research report):

  • Males who left employment were more likely to have no dependent children in the household (41% vs 27%), live in a lone-parent household (14% vs 5%) or be living alone or ‘living other’, e.g. unrelated individuals living together, such as young professionals (36% vs 16%).
  • Females who left employment were more likely to have three or more dependent children in the household (16% vs 11%) or have a child with a disability (18% vs 7%).

(ii) Where do they move to?

Figure 1 shows the economic activity status by sex for those leaving employment between 2011 and 2021 (excluding retirees).

Figure 1: Economic activity status in 2021 (%), among those who left employment (2011-2021), by sex

Figure 1 shows the 2021 Economic activity status for males and females among those who left employment between 2011-2021.

Note: Figure 1 is based on a 22% population sample, see study overview.

Among those who were employed in 2011 but were not employed in 2021 (after excluding retirees):

  • Among males, the largest group was long-term sick or disabled (40%), followed by other forms of economic inactivity (26%) and unemployed (19%).
  • Among females, the largest group was looking after home or family (45%), followed by long-term sick or disabled (32%) and other economically inactive (15%).

(iii) Modelling leaving employment, 2011-2021

Modelling analysis was undertaken to estimate the characteristics associated with leaving employment between 2011 and 2021, while accounting for all other characteristics included in the model. Figure 2 presents the results as odds ratios, highlighting the characteristics most strongly associated with employment exit. Further details on the modelling approach are available in the research report.

Figure 2: Groups most likely to leave employment, 2011-2021 (aged 20-49 years in 2011)

Figure 1 shows which groups had the highest likelihood of leaving employment between 2011 and 2021.

Figure 2: Note and interpretation

Odds ratios (ORs) presented in Figure 2 show how much more likely a group is to leave employment between 2011 and 2021 compared to a reference group, after adjusting for other factors. For example, those who acquired a disability between 2011 and 2021 (OR = 4.08) were 4.08 times more likely to leave employment between 2011 and 2021 compared to those with no disability in either year.


Key insights


Overall, females were more likely than males to leave employment (OR: 1.69, +69%).

Health conditions in 2021 and disability change, 2011-2021

The likelihood of leaving employment was higher among those who reported poor mental health alongside other conditions (OR: 3.01, 3 times higher) and reported poor mental health alone (OR: 2.36, 2.36 times higher).

Compared with having no disability in either year, the likelihood of leaving employment was higher among those who:

  • Had a disability in both 2011 and 2021 (OR: 5.49, 5.49 times higher).
  • Acquired a disability between 2011 and 2021 (OR: 4.08, over 4-times higher).
  • Reported a disability in 2011 but not 2021 (OR: 1.46, +46%).

Other

  • Providing 35 or more hours of unpaid care per week (vs. none) was strongly associated with leaving employment (OR = 2.27, 2.27 times).
  • Those living in social-rented (OR = 2.86, 2.86 times) and in private-rented accommodation (OR = 1.88, 1.88 times), had a higher likelihood of leaving employment compared to those living in owner-occupied accommodation.

Sex-specific associations
When the models were run separately for males and females, notable differences emerged (see Annex 4, Table 8 of the research report).

For males, higher associations of leaving employment were found among those who:

  • Were single vs married (OR = 2.22, 2.22 times).
  • Were separated or divorced (OR = 1.62, +62%).
  • Reported neurodiversity (OR = 1.49, +49%).
  • Reported a physical health condition (OR = 1.25, +25%).
  • Lived in a lone-parent household (OR = 1.67, +67%).
  • Resided in urban areas of Derry City and Strabane Local Government District (OR = 1.29, +29%) or in western (OR = 1.26, +26%) and northern areas (OR = 1.25, +25%) of Belfast Local Government District.

For females, higher associations of leaving employment were found among those who:

  • Had three or more dependent children in the household (OR = 2.23, 2.23 times).
  • Had a child with a disability in the household (OR: 1.28, +28%).

Discussion

Between 2011 and 2021, transitions out of employment were more common among females and those with lower levels of educational attainment. Health and disability were key drivers: those who left employment were more likely to report a disability at both time points or to have developed a disability over the decade. They were also more likely to report poor overall, mental, and physical health in 2021. It should be noted that poor mental health is likely to be underreported, particularly among males (see reference 6).

Higher levels of unpaid caring responsibilities, renting, and living alone or in lone-parent households were also associated with leaving employment. Distinct sex-specific patterns were evident. For females, leaving employment was strongly associated with having three or more children or having a child with a disability. For males, leaving employment was associated with being single, reporting neurodiversity or physical health conditions, and living in northern and western areas of Belfast Local Government District, as well as in urban areas of Derry City and Strabane Local Government District.

Overall, disability, poor mental and physical health, and caring responsibilities play a central role in leaving employment. The findings highlight different underlying drivers for males and females. For females, family size and caring-related constraints appear to be particularly important, pointing to the potential value of policies that support childcare provision, caring responsibilities and flexible working arrangements. For males, the results suggest a stronger role for health, disability and skills-related factors in sustaining employment, indicating the importance of targeted health interventions, skills development and employability support. More broadly, this points to the need for coordinated policies to support those with health conditions, disabilities or caring responsibilities to remain in work and reduce the risk of long-term economic inactivity.

Policy context

Northern Ireland’s strategies addressing economic inactivity, employment among people with disabilities and improving wellbeing outcomes for people out of work due to ill/health or disability include:

  • Disability and Work Strategy for Northern Ireland (see reference 7).
  • Economic Vision (see reference 8).
  • Programme for Government (2024-2027) (see reference 1).

The NISRA research team, continues to work with Queen’s University Belfast and policy leads at the Department for Communities and the Department for the Economy to maximise the policy impact of this research.

Building on this analysis, future research could explore whether certain areas in Northern Ireland exhibit higher or lower levels of economic inactivity than would be expected based on their population characteristics, to assess whether additional neighbourhood or area‑based factors influence the likelihood of economic inactivity.

Further information

Definitions

Table 1: Health definitions

Category Definition
Disability Aligned with the Disability Discrimination Act (DDA). Respondents were asked: “Are your day-to-day activities limited because of a health problem or disability which has lasted, or is expected to last, at least 12 months?” (No; Yes, limited a little; Yes, limited a lot).
Disability change
(2011–2021)
  1. No disability in 2011 or 2021.
  2. Acquired a disability between 2011 and 2021.
  3. Disability in 2011 but not 2021.
  4. Disability in both 2011 and 2021.
Neurodiversity The definition of neurodiversity used is based on respondents self-reporting Autism, Asperger syndrome, or a learning difficulty (e.g. dyslexia) on the 2021 Census. This represents a bespoke classification created for this analysis and should not be interpreted as an official or exhaustive definition. An official definition of neurodiversity is provided by the Royal College of Nursing (see reference 9).
Physical health condition Long-term pain or discomfort, breathing difficulty, mobility/dexterity difficulty, or other long-term condition (e.g. cancer, diabetes, heart disease).
Poor mental health Self-reported emotional, psychological, or mental health condition (e.g. depression, schizophrenia).


Table 2: Other definitions

Category Definition
Living other Unrelated individuals living together, such as young professionals.
Urban/rural residence Based on the 2021 Census, settlements (see reference 10) with a population of greater than or equal to 5,000 were classified as urban while settlements with a population of less than 5,000 were classified as rural.
Area deprivation The Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure (NIMDM) (see reference 11) assessed deprivation across seven domains. In this study, the 2017 Income NIMDM domain grouped individuals into deprivation quintiles based on their place of residence. Analysis compared those in the most deprived quintile, ‘the top 20% of deprived areas’ with those in the remaining four quintiles, ‘the bottom 80% of deprived areas’.
Local Government District (LGD) A person’s area of residence within one of 11 LGD’s introduced in 2015 (see reference 12). Belfast LGD was subdivided into four areas (northern, eastern, southern and western) using lower level geographical areas called District Electoral Areas (DEA) (see reference 13). In addition, Derry City and Strabane LGD was separated into urban and rural areas.

Note: see research report for full definitions.

Acknowledgements

The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. We also thank colleagues in NISRA, the Department for the Economy (DfE) and the Department for Communities (DfC) who contributed to the development of this brief.

Research team

John Hughes, Brian Foley, Carmel Colohan and Deborah Lyness (all Administrative Research Unit, NISRA) Professor Duncan McVicar and Dr Aideen Maguire (both Queen’s University Belfast)

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