Key findings

This research examined characteristics associated with moving into employment between 2011 and 2021, with a particular focus on disability status, socio-economic conditions and household circumstances.

Overall, the main factors associated with moving into employment were:

  • Being male.
  • Age 20-39 years.
  • Holding qualifications, in particular a degree.
  • Being unemployed or in the other economically inactive category in 2011.
  • Having reported a disability in 2011 but not in 2021.
  • Providing lower levels of unpaid care (1-19 hours per week).

Among females, being separated or divorced and living in northern and eastern areas of Belfast Local Government District were associated with a move into employment.

Note: Age and labour market status refer to baseline characteristics in 2011. Disability status captures changes between 2011 and 2021. All other characteristics reflect status in 2021 and circumstances associated with employment outcomes at the end of this period. Definitions of health, socio-economic, household and area variables are provided in Tables 1 and 2.


Background

Improving labour market participation and reducing economic inactivity are longstanding policy priorities in Northern Ireland (see reference 1). Policy development can be enhanced by gaining a greater understanding of the characteristics associated with transitions into employment over time.

People with disabilities and those with long-term health conditions continue to experience poor labour market outcomes (see reference 2). Having a disability remains one of the strongest predictors of not being in employment. In 2021, only 38% of people with disabilities were in employment in Northern Ireland, compared with 86% of people without disabilities, resulting in a disability employment gap of 48 percentage points (see reference 3).

Using Census data, this analysis examined those who were not in employment in 2011 and were in employment in 2021, focusing on those aged 20–49 in 2011. The analysis explored the health, household and socio-economic factors associated with being more likely to move into employment over this period, supporting government objectives to increase labour market participation. The full research report, along with a complementary policy brief examining factors associated with leaving employment (2011–2021), is available on the NISRA-led research website.

Data source

The analysis used the Northern Ireland Longitudinal study (NILS), a high-quality linked dataset combining Census data from 2011 and 2021, to examine employment transitions. In the linked 2011-2021 dataset, the sample of individuals aged 20-49 in 2011 represented 22% of the 2011 Northern Ireland population (167,784 out of 755,704) (see reference 4).

Results

Descriptive characteristics: who moves?

Detailed results are provided in the research report (Annex 2, Tables 3 and 4), with separate breakdowns by sex provided in Annex 3, Tables 5 and 6.

In the commentary below, the comparison group is those who were not employed in both 2011 and 2021.

Sex, age and marital status

  • Those who moved into employment were more likely to be male (44% vs 37%) and more likely to be married (47% vs 33%), compared with those who were not employed in both 2011 and 2021.
  • Among males aged 20–29, 45% entered employment between 2011 and 2021, compared with 24% who were not employed in both years.
  • Among females, higher proportions entered employment than remained out of employment in the 20–29 (33% vs 23%) and 30–39 (37% vs 30%) age groups.

Education and health

Those who moved into employment were:

  • More likely to hold intermediate-level (54% vs 42%) or degree-level (28% vs 11%) qualifications.
  • More likely to not report a disability in either 2011 or 2021 (73% vs 29%).
  • Less likely to report a health condition in 2021 including poor mental health (9% vs 41%), neurodiversity (3% vs 8%), and a physical health condition (21% vs 56%).

Other
Those who moved into employment were more likely to:

  • Live in owner-occupied housing (61% vs 37%).
  • Have no unpaid caring responsibilities (83% vs 77%).
  • Live outside Belfast and Derry City and Strabane Local Government Districts (73% vs 65%).
  • (For females) live in households where no children had a disability (87% vs 76%).

Modelling moving into employment, 2011 to 2021

Modelling analysis was undertaken to estimate the characteristics associated with moving into employment between 2011 and 2021, while accounting for all other characteristics included in the model. Figure 1 presents the results as odds ratios, highlighting the characteristics most strongly associated with employment entry. Further details on the modelling approach are available in the research report.

Figure 1: Groups most likely to enter employment, 2011-2021 (aged 20-49 years in 2011)

Figure 2 shows which groups had the highest likelihood of entering employment between 2011 and 2021 (odds ratios shown on a log scale).

Note: The ‘rest of Northern Ireland’ refers to areas outside of Belfast and Derry City and Strabane Local Government Districts.

Figure 1: Note and interpretation

Odds ratios (ORs) presented in Figure 1 show how much more likely a group is to enter employment between 2011 and 2021, compared to a reference group, after adjusting for other factors. For example, those with a degree (OR = 3.95) were 3.95 times more likely to move into employment between 2011 and 2021, compared to those with no qualifications.


Key insights


Qualifications

Compared to individuals with no qualifications, those with a degree (3.95 times, OR:3.95) or intermediate level qualifications (2.34 times, OR = 2.34) were more likely to enter employment.

Sex and age

  • Males were 33% more likely to enter employment than females (OR = 1.33).
  • Individuals aged 20-29 years were 2.11 (OR = 2.11) times more likely, and those aged 30-39 years were 1.60 times more likely (OR = 1.60) to move into employment than those aged 40-49 years.

Economic activity status in 2011

Compared with individuals who were long-term sick or disabled in 2011:

  • Those unemployed in 2011 were over two times more likely to be in employment in 2021 (OR = 2.04).
  • Those classified as ‘other economically inactive’ in 2011 were 54% more likely to be in employment in 2021 (OR = 1.54).

Caring responsibilities

  • Providing 1-19 hours of unpaid care per week in 2021 (compared with having no unpaid care responsibilities) was associated with a 37% greater likelihood (OR = 1.37) of moving into employment between 2011 and 2021.

Disability change

  • Having a disability in 2011 but not 2021 (compared with having no disability in either year) was associated with a 31% greater likelihood of entering employment (OR = 1.31).

Female-specific associations
When the models were run separately for males and females, notable differences emerged (see Annex 4, Table 7 of the research report):

  • Females who were divorced or separated (compared with married), were 40% more likely to enter employment (OR = 1.40).
  • Females living in northern (31%: OR 1.31) and eastern areas (20%: OR = 1.20) of Belfast Local Government District had a higher likelihood of entering employment compared to the rest of Northern Ireland.


Discussion

Between 2011 and 2021, transitions into employment were more common among males, those aged 20–39 years, and those with higher educational attainment. Improvements in disability status were particularly important, while lower levels of unpaid care (1–19 hours per week) and being unemployed or ‘other economically inactive’ in 2011 (including temporary sickness or unspecified inactivity) were also associated with entering employment.

Among females, entry into employment was more likely for those who were separated or divorced, and for those living in northern and eastern areas of Belfast Local Government District.

Overall, disability, mental and physical health, educational attainment and caring responsibilities play a central role in moving into employment. The findings highlight the importance of improving health outcomes, supporting skills and qualifications, and reducing barriers related to caring responsibilities.

More broadly, the results point to the value of targeted and coordinated interventions to support people to enter work and sustain participation in the labour market.

Policy context

Northern Ireland’s strategies addressing economic inactivity, employment among people with disabilities and improving wellbeing outcomes for people out of work due to ill/health or disability include:

  • Disability and Work Strategy for Northern Ireland (see reference 5).
  • Economic Vision (see reference 6).
  • Programme for Government (2024-2027) (see reference 1).

The NISRA research team continues to work with Queen’s University Belfast and policy leads at the Department for Communities and the Department for the Economy to maximise the policy impact of this research.

Building on this analysis, future research could explore whether certain areas in Northern Ireland exhibit higher or lower levels of economic inactivity than would be expected based on their population characteristics, to assess whether additional neighbourhood or area‑based factors influence the likelihood of economic inactivity.

Further information

Definitions

Table 1: Health definitions

Category Definition
Disability Aligned with the Disability Discrimination Act (DDA). Respondents were asked: “Are your day-to-day activities limited because of a health problem or disability which has lasted, or is expected to last, at least 12 months?” (No; Yes, limited a little; Yes, limited a lot).
Disability change
(2011–2021)
  1. No disability in 2011 or 2021.
  2. Acquired a disability between 2011 and 2021.
  3. Disability in 2011 but not 2021.
  4. Disability in both 2011 and 2021.
Neurodiversity The definition of neurodiversity used is based on respondents self-reporting Autism, Asperger syndrome, or a learning difficulty (e.g. dyslexia) on the 2021 Census. This represents a bespoke classification created for this analysis and should not be interpreted as an official or exhaustive definition. An official definition of neurodiversity is provided by the Royal College of Nursing (see reference 7).
Physical health condition Long-term pain or discomfort, breathing difficulty, mobility/dexterity difficulty, or other long-term condition (e.g. cancer, diabetes, heart disease).
Poor mental health Self-reported emotional, psychological, or mental health condition (e.g. depression, schizophrenia).


Table 2: Other definitions

Category Definition
Economic activity group
  1. Economically active: employed.
  2. Economically active: unemployed.
  3. Economically inactive: looking after home/family.
  4. Economically inactive: long-term sick/disabled.
  5. Other economically inactive: individuals not seeking work for reasons other than looking after home/family or long-term sickness/disability. This group included people discouraged from seeking employment, those who gave no specific reason for their inactivity and individuals temporarily sick/disabled.
Intermediate level qualification School-level qualification, other vocational qualification or apprenticeship.
Local Government District (LGD) A person’s area of residence within one of 11 LGD’s introduced in 2015 (see reference 8). Belfast LGD was subdivided into four areas (northern, eastern, southern and western) using lower level geographical areas called District Electoral Areas (DEA) (see reference 9). In addition, Derry City and Strabane LGD was separated into urban and rural areas.

Note: see research report for full definitions.

Acknowledgements

The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. We also thank colleagues in NISRA, the Department for the Economy (DfE) and the Department for Communities (DfC) who contributed to the development of this brief.

Research team

John Hughes, Brian Foley, Carmel Colohan and Deborah Lyness (all Administrative Research Unit, NISRA) Professor Duncan McVicar and Dr Aideen Maguire (both Queen’s University Belfast)

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