Background

People with disabilities in Northern Ireland experience poorer outcomes in both the labour market and health compared to those without disabilities. This includes higher levels of economic inactivity1, employment in lower-paying jobs1, and poorer mental health2. As of February 2025, 27% of Northern Ireland’s working-age population were economically inactive (compared to 21% UK-wide)3. Long-term illness or disability accounted for around 40% of the economically inactive group4. Northern Ireland has the lowest disability employment rate in the UK: around two in five5,6 disabled individuals are in work, compared to over half across the UK5. Most existing evidence on disability and employment is based on cross-sectional data from surveys or the Census, which capture information at a single point in time. This limits understanding of how people’s circumstances change. In contrast, a longitudinal analysis, which examines data at different points in time, offers valuable insights into employment patterns and how these are shaped by changes in disability status.

Study overview

This analysis uses the Northern Ireland longitudinal Study (NILS)7, a representative 28% sample of the population, to track changes in disability and employment status over a ten-year period from 2011 to 2021. These preliminary findings focus on individuals aged 25-54 years in 2011, examining how transitions in disability status are associated with employment status. The lower age threshold of 25 years accounts for many younger adults still being in education or otherwise not active in the labour market, while the upper limit of 54 years includes those likely to still be in the workforce in 2021, before the typical retirement age.

Key findings

Figure 1: Transitions in disability and employment status, 2011-2021

Transitions in disability and employment status, 2011-2021 Source: NILS
Note: The categories ‘moved out of employment’ and ‘not employed’ include those economically inactive or unemployed in 2021. Similarly, those who ‘moved into employment’ by 2021 were economically inactive or unemployed in 2011.

Based on a sample of 175,200 individuals (see Figure 1), the analysis found:
Stable employment was strongly associated with not having a disability : Over three quarters (77%) of individuals without a disability in both 2011 and 2021 were employed in both years, compared to 15% of those with a disability in both years.

Persistent disability was linked to ongoing economic inactivity: Nearly two-thirds (65%) of those who reported a disability in both 2011 and 2021 were not employed in either year, compared to 6% among those without a disability in both years.

No longer having a disability was associated with a higher chance of entering employment: Among individuals who reported a disability in 2011 but not in 2021, 26% entered employment, compared to 5% among those who reported a disability in both years.

Onset of disability was associated with a higher chance of leaving employment: Of those who acquired a disability between 2011 and 2021, nearly one in three (32%) had left employment, compared to 10% among those without a disability in either year.

Discussion and next steps

These findings highlight how employment transitions differ based on a person’s disability trajectory. Notably, transitions into or out of disability were associated with changes in employment status. This points to a need for timely and tailored support at key transition points, particularly around the onset of disability. Given that three in ten individuals aged 25-54 (in 2011) experienced a disability at some point during the period 2011 and 2021, even modest improvements in employment outcomes could have a meaningful impact on overall workforce participation and wellbeing.

Our ongoing research will examine:
• The impact of specific health conditions (e.g. poor mental health, neurodivergence) on employment outcomes.

• The influence of when disability was acquired (early versus later in working life) on long-term employment or health trajectories. For example, an early-life onset may affect education and career decisions.

• Detailed profile of groups, such as individuals who acquired a disability between 2011 and 2021, to better understand their characteristics and the factors associated with remaining in or leaving employment.

Policy context

This research supports the Programme for Government 2024-20278 and the Department for the Economy’s (DfE’s) New Economic Vision9 , particularly the priority of delivering good jobs including for people with disabilities. These findings can inform efforts of employers and policymakers to narrow the disability employment gap. The research team, based at the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and Queen’s University Belfast, continues to work closely with policy leads at both DfE and Department for Communities (DfC) to take this research forward.

Research team

John Hughes, Brian Foley, Carmel Colohan and Deborah Lyness (all Administrative Research Unit, NISRA) Professor Duncan McVicar and Dr Aideen Maguire (both Queen’s University Belfast)

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Acknowledgements

The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS. We would also like to thank colleagues in DfE and DfC who are members of the project steering group and contributed to the development of this brief.

Definitions

Economic inactivity: not working or seeking work due to factors like long-term illness or caring duties.
Unemployment: not working but actively seeking employment.
Disability: health problems or disabilities lasting, or expected to last, at least 12 months and which limit daily activities.
Poor mental health: self-reported emotional, psychological or mental health condition (such as depression or schizophrenia).
Neurodivergence (based on Census 2021): includes Autism, Asperger syndrome, or a learning difficulty (e.g. dyslexia).

Note The NILS is representative of 28% of the Northern Ireland population. However, when linking data across Census years, its representativeness decreases. In our linked 2011-2021 dataset, the representativeness for individuals aged 25-54 is 23% (175,200 out of 746,62410 in the population). The main reasons for this reduction, i.e. NILS members present in 2011 but not in 2021, are emigration, death and non-enumeration in the 2021 Census.