This statistical report provides population estimates for Northern Ireland by age and sex, including those aged 85 and older.

Summary

Northern Ireland population grows to 1.93 million in mid-2024

  • Northern Ireland’s population (30 June 2024) was 1,927,900.

  • The population increased by 7,500 people or 0.4 per cent between mid-2023 and mid-2024.

  • The graph shows the trend from 1999-2024.

Population continues to grow

  • Annual population change has remained positive over the last twenty-five years.

  • Growth over the last year has increased to 0.4 per cent from a recent low of 0.1 per cent in 2020.

  • Over the decade mid-2014 to mid-2024, the population of Northern Ireland increased by a total of 84,700 people with an average year-on-year increase of 0.5 per cent.

Net migration is the main driver of population growth

2023
Population
(1,920,400)

Natural
Change
+1,900

Net
Migration
+5,800

Other
Changes
-200

2024
Population
(1,927,900)

  • Net migration was the main contributor to the population increase over the last year (+5,800).

  • Natural change (births minus deaths) also contributed to the population increase from 2023 to 2024, (+1,900).

The Northern Ireland population continues to age

  • The population pyramid shows the population structure. The ageing of the population from 2014 to 2024 is evident in the increasing population amongst the older ages. This can be seen in the pyramid where the population begins to broaden around age 50.

  • In the year to mid-2024, the number of people aged 65 or more increased by 2.0 per cent from 342,500 to 349,200 people.

By mid-2024, over one in six people in Northern Ireland were aged 65 and over

  • The proportion of the population aged 65 or more has increased from 13.1 per cent in mid-1999 to 18.1 per cent in mid-2024.

  • In contrast, the proportion of the population aged 0 to 15 years has decreased from 24.3 per cent in mid-1999 to 20.0 per cent in mid-2024.

Higher improvement in survival rates among males than females at older ages in recent years

  • Between mid-2014 and mid-2024, the percentage increase in the number of males aged 85 and over (44.1 per cent) has been noticeably higher than that among females (15.4 per cent).

  • In mid-2024, males accounted for 37.1 per cent of those aged 85 and over and females for 62.9 per cent. In mid-2014, the figures were 32.0 per cent and 68.0 per cent.

Note: Throughout the report figures have been presented in a rounded form to ease readability. For example, population figures have been presented to the nearest 100 and percentages have been presented to 1 decimal place. However, all calculations have been undertaken on the basis of unrounded numbers which will, in some instances, give rise to apparent discrepancies.

1. Introduction

This bulletin presents the key findings from the 2024 Mid-Year Population Estimates for Northern Ireland and for areas within Northern Ireland published on 11 September 2025. It provides detailed analyses of the population and migration estimates for Northern Ireland.

Population statistics are used to allocate public funds to the Northern Ireland Executive through the Barnett formula [note 1]. Population estimates are also widely used by Northern Ireland government departments for the planning of services, such as health and education. These statistics are also of interest to those involved in research and academia. They are widely used to express other statistics as a rate, and thus enable comparisons across the United Kingdom and other countries. Furthermore, population estimates form the basis for future population statistics such as population projections [note 2].

Notes

  1. A mechanism used by His Majesty’s Treasury to adjust the amounts of public expenditure allocated to the Devolved Administrations. For more information see the research paper published by the NI Assembly (.pdf, 143 KB).
  2. For the latest Northern Ireland population projections see the 2022-based Population Projections for Northern Ireland on the NISRA website.

2. Background

The population estimates refer to the number of people in the population at 30 June each year. Population estimates for Northern Ireland, sub-national levels and small geographical areas are published annually and approximately one year in arrears. Population estimates are based on the most recent Census of population: each year, the population is ‘aged-on’ by one year with the number of births in the year added and the number of deaths in the year subtracted. An adjustment is also made for migration. Subsequent mid-year population estimates then use the previous year’s figures as the base.

3. Population Estimates for Northern Ireland

3.1 Northern Ireland’s population continues to increase

Figure 1: Estimated Population of Northern Ireland, mid-1999 to mid-2024 *

At 30 June 2024, Northern Ireland’s population was estimated to be 1.93 million people. Between mid-2023 and mid-2024, the population of Northern Ireland increased by 7,500 people (0.4 per cent). Just over half of the population (50.7 per cent) were female, with 978,100 females compared to 949,800 males (49.3 per cent).

Figure 2: Annual population change for Northern Ireland, mid-1999 to mid-2024

Over the decade mid-2014 to mid-2024, the population of Northern Ireland increased by a total of 84,700 people with an average year-on-year increase of 0.5 per cent.

3.2 Why is the population increasing?

The two main components of population change are natural change and net migration. Natural change is the difference between the number of births and deaths, while net migration is the difference between the number of people entering and leaving Northern Ireland. Other Changes is a third minor component and takes into account changes such as the number of armed forces stationed here.

The latest increase in the Northern Ireland population was a result of (see Figure 3):

  1. Positive natural change of 1,900 people (19,800 births minus 17,900 deaths);
  2. An estimated gain of 5,800 people due to net migration (28,200 people came to live in Northern Ireland and 22,500 people left); and
  3. A slight reduction of 200 people due to other changes.

Figure 3: Contribution of components of change to population increase, mid-2023 to mid-2024

2023
Population
(1,920,400)

Natural
Change
+1,900

Net
Migration
+5,800

Other
Changes
-200

2024
Population
(1,927,900)

In the year between mid-2023 and mid-2024 population change totalled 7,500 people, which was a result of positive natural change and net migration. The main contributor to the increase in population was net migration (i.e. inflows [note 3] minus outflows [note 4]), accounting for 77.2 per cent (5,800) of this growth.

Net migration remains the main driver of population growth in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has also experienced positive natural change (i.e. births minus deaths) over the year with the number of births exceeding deaths by 1,900 (see Figure 4). This represents the lowest natural change in the time series and continues a downward trend in the last decade.

Figure 4: Components of population change (year ending mid-2002 to year ending mid-2024)

Notes

  1. Inflows: the number of people coming to Northern Ireland to live.
  2. Outflows: the number of people leaving Northern Ireland to live elsewhere.

4. Where do migrants come from and go to?

Migration into and out of Northern Ireland can be analysed in two groups, namely:

  • UK migration – Flows of people between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK
  • International migration – Flows of people between Northern Ireland and outside the UK

Figure 5 below shows the number of people migrating into and out of Northern Ireland by type (i.e. whether to/from the UK or International) for the year ending mid-2024.

Figure 5: Migration to and from Northern Ireland by type in the year ending mid-2024

Between the year ending mid-2023 and the year ending mid-2024, the number of people leaving Northern Ireland to live in the rest of the UK decreased by 200 people (1.6 per cent), while the number of people coming to live in Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK decreased by 400 people (3.0 per cent). This led to inflows of 11,400 people and outflows of 11,600 people in the year ending mid-2024 and resulted in an approximately even net UK migration.

During the same time, the number of people leaving Northern Ireland to live outside the UK decreased by 400 (3.2 per cent) to 10,900, while the number of people coming to live in Northern Ireland from outside the UK decreased by 1,900 (10.4 per cent) to 16,900 [note 5]. As a result, in the year ending mid-2024, there was a net migration gain of 6,000 people due to international migration.

Figure 6 shows a time series of net migration by type from the year ending mid-2002 to the year ending mid-2024. Net migration has remained positive since mid-2022.

Figure 6: Estimated net migration by type (year ending mid-2002 to year ending mid-2024)

Notes

  1. This figure includes asylum seekers and those who arrived as part of the humanitarian response to the war in Ukraine.

5. The age structure of Northern Ireland’s population

5.1 The population of Northern Ireland is ageing

Figure 7: Population by age and sex (mid-2014 and mid-2024)

Age composition is one of the most important aspects of the population since changes in different age groups will have varied social and economic impacts. Figure 7 shows the population split by age and sex for mid-2014 and mid-2024 in the form of a population pyramid. This particular data representation allows for a more visual idea of how the numbers of people have ‘aged on’ in the decade to the year ending mid-2024 with the pyramid beginning to broaden around age 50 and over.

Over the three decades from the year ending mid-1994 to the year ending mid-2024 the median age (i.e. the age at which half the population is older and half is younger) of the Northern Ireland population has increased from 32.0 to 40.3 years.

5.2 How is the age structure of the population changing?

Over the 25 year period (from 1999 to 2024) Northern Ireland has seen changes in the proportion of the population in key age groups. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over has experienced the largest increase over the 25 year period, with a distinct accelerated growth in this population occurring from mid-2007. As a result, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over has increased by 38.2 per cent from mid-1999 to mid-2024. Conversely, the proportion of children (i.e. people aged 0 to 15 years) in Northern Ireland has decreased since mid-1999 by 17.7 per cent to mid-2024. The proportion of the population who are of working age (i.e. people aged 16 to 64 years) has remained relatively stable over the period.

Figure 8: Index of population change for key age groups in Northern Ireland, mid-1999 to mid-2024

Figure 9 shows how the rate of change between these three age groups translates into the makeup of the Northern Ireland population as a whole. The population has gradually become older with the proportion of the older population (aged 65 years and over) increasing throughout this period from 13.1 per cent in mid-1999 to 18.1 per cent in mid-2024. Conversely, the proportion of the of children has decreased from 24.3 per cent of the population in mid-1999 to 20.0 per cent of the population in mid-2024.

Figure 9: Age structure of Northern Ireland’s population, mid-1999 to mid-2024

5.3 Change in age structure over the year

Children (0 to 15 years)

In mid-2024, one in five (20.0 per cent) people in Northern Ireland were children

In the year ending mid-2024, the number of children decreased by 3,500 people (from 388,200 to 384,700), representing 20.0 per cent of the population.

This decrease of 3,500 children was a result of:

2023
Population
(388,200)

Births
+19,800

‘Ageing out’
[note 6]
-26,000

Net Migration
+2,800

Deaths
-100

2024
Population
(384,700)

Notes

6. ‘Ageing out’ refers to the cohort of people ageing from one group into the next. In this case, people who are aged 15 in mid-2023 will turn 16 by mid-2024 and therefore ‘age out’ of the Children (0 to 15 years) age group.

Working age population (16 to 64 years)

In the year ending mid-2024 the working age population [note 7] increased by 0.4 per cent (from 1,189,700 to 1,194,000), representing 61.9 per cent of the population.

This increase of 4,300 people was a result of:

2023
Population
(1,189,700)

‘Ageing in’
[note 8]
+26,000

‘Ageing out’
[note 9]
-22,100

Net Migration
+3,600

Deaths
-3,000

2024
Population
(1,194,000)

Over the same period, the younger working age population (i.e. people aged 16 to 39 years) is estimated to have increased by 0.6 per cent from 567,800 people to 571,200 people, representing 29.6 per cent of the population. This population increase of 3,400 people in the younger working age group was a result of:

  • more people ‘ageing into’ this age group (26,000) than ‘ageing out’ (25,600);
  • a net increase of 3,500 in this population age group due to migration; and
  • a relatively small number of deaths (400)

The older working age population (i.e. people aged 40 to 64 years) grew by 0.1 per cent in the year ending mid-2023 (from 621,900 to 622,800), representing 32.3 per cent of the population. This growth of 900 was a result of:

  • more people ‘ageing into’ this age group (25,600) than ‘ageing out’ (22,100);
  • a net gain of 100 in this population age group due to migration; and
  • a total of 2,500 deaths among people in this age group

Notes

  1. The working age population is defined by the age at 30 June 2024 and is not based on the age for entitlement to state pension. Following the Pensions Act 2007 and 2011, the State Pension Age (SPA) for women increased gradually to 65 in November 2018.
  2. ‘Ageing in’ refers to the cohort of people ageing from one group into the next. In this case, people who are aged 15 in mid-2023 will turn 16 by mid-2024 and therefore ‘age in’ to the ‘working age’ group (16 to 64 years).
  3. ‘Ageing out’ refers to the cohort of people ageing from one group into the next. In this case, people who are aged 64 in mid-2023 will turn 65 by mid-2024 and therefore ‘age out’ of the working age group and ‘age in’ to the ‘older population’ group (65 years and over) age group.

The older population (65 years and over)

In mid-2024, over one in six (18.1 per cent) people in Northern Ireland were aged 65 and over

In the year mid-2023 to mid-2024, the population aged 65 and over increased by 2.0 per cent (from 342,500 to 349,200), representing 18.1 per cent of the population.

This increase of 6,700 was due to:

2023
Population
(342,500)

‘Ageing in’
[note 10]
+22,100

Deaths
–14,800

Net Migration
-700

2024
Population
(349,200)

The population aged 85 and over an increase of by 2.4 per cent (from 41,900 to 42,900) between mid-2023 and mid-2024, representing 2.2 per cent of the population. The growth of 1,000 people in this age group was a result of:

2023
Population
(41,900)

‘Ageing in’
[note 11]
+7,700

Deaths
-6,700

Net Migration
-100

2024
Population
(42,900)

Notes

  1. ‘Ageing in’ refers to the cohort of people ageing from one group into the next. In this case, people who are aged 64 in mid-2023 will turn 65 by mid-2024 and therefore ‘age in’ to the 65 years and over group.
  2. ‘Ageing in’ refers to the cohort of people ageing from one group into the next. In this case, people who are aged 84 in mid-2023 will turn 85 by mid-2024 and therefore ‘age in’ to the 85 years and over group.

6. Population aged 85 and over

6.1 Population aged 85 and over

The population aged 85 and over increased by 24.6 per cent in the decade since mid-2014, a rate over five times higher than the population as a whole

It is estimated that there were 42,900 people aged 85 and over living in Northern Ireland at 30 June 2024, an increase of 1,000 people (2.4 per cent) since mid-2023. Figure 10 illustrates the trend in the population aged 85 and over, from mid-2014 to mid-2024.

Figure 10: Population aged 85 and over by sex (mid-2014 to mid-2024)

Between mid-2023 and mid-2024, net migration of people aged 85 and over, to and from Northern Ireland, was -100 people. In the same period, more people aged into this group (7,700) than left through mortality (6,700). This resulted in an overall increase of 1,000 people aged 85 and over from mid-2023 to mid-2024. This pattern of marginal migration effects is consistent with estimated population changes in previous years.

Deaths in the population aged 85 and over decreased by 1.8 per cent (from 6,800 deaths to 6,700 deaths) in the year ending mid-2024.

Between mid-2014 and mid-2024, the percentage increase in the number of males aged 85 and over (44.1 per cent) has been noticeably higher than that among females (15.4 per cent). Over the past decade, numbers of males aged 85 and over increased on average by 3.7 per cent each year, while females aged 85 and over increased on average by 1.4 per cent each year.

In mid-2024, males accounted for 37.1 per cent of those aged 85 and over and females for 62.9 per cent, whereas 10 years previously, in mid-2014, the figures were 32.0 per cent and 68.0 per cent respectively. This compositional change, which is illustrated in Figure 11, is indicative of higher improvement in survival rates among males than females at older ages in recent years.

Figure 11: Proportion of population aged 85 and over by sex (mid-2014 to mid-2024)

6.2 Population aged 90-99

In the period mid-2014 to mid-2024, the Northern Ireland population aged 90 to 99 increased by 21.9 per cent

It is estimated that there were 14,400 people aged between 90 and 99 in Northern Ireland at 30 June 2024, this represents an increase of 200 people (1.6 per cent) since mid-2023.

Figure 12 shows there has consistently been more females aged 90 to 99 than males since mid-2014. In mid-2024, 68.3 per cent of those aged 90 to 99 were females (9,800) and 31.7 per cent were males (4,600). Ten years previously in mid-2014, females accounted for 72.5 per cent of those aged 90 to 99 and males accounted for 27.5 per cent.

Figure 12: Population aged 90 to 99 by sex (mid-2014 to mid-2024)

However, looking at percentage growth, the increase in the number of males aged 90 to 99 (40.8 per cent) was noticeably higher than that of females (14.8 per cent) over the decade, mid-2014 to mid-2024. This compositional change, which is illustrated in Figure 13, is indicative of higher improvement in survival rates among males than females in the population aged 90 to 99 in recent years.

Figure 13: Proportion of population aged 90 to 99 by sex (mid-2014 to mid-2024)

Previous reports demonstrated the impact which the First World War had on births occurring at that time, and how that has had knock-on effects on the number of persons aged 90 and over in recent years [note 12]. Figure 14 shows the population aged 90 to 99 from mid-2001 to mid-2024, and highlights those born in the years ending mid-1917 and mid-1920.

The peak in the number of births in 1920 is still visible in the population estimates for those aged 90 in mid-2010, those aged 91 in mid-2011, and so on right through to those aged 99 in mid-2019. The low number of births in 1917 can still be observed in the dips in population estimates for those aged 90 in mid-2007 through to those aged 92 in mid-2009, albeit to a lesser extent. Beyond this the impact of low births in 1917 on the population estimates becomes less evident.

Figure 14: Population aged 90-99, Northern Ireland (mid-2001 to mid-2024)

Notes

  1. Historical births data are available from the Vital Statistics section of the NISRA website.

6.3 Number of centenarians (aged 100 and over)

The vast majority of centenarians were female (81.3 per cent) in mid-2024

It is estimated that there were 294 centenarians living in Northern Ireland on 30 June 2024. Figure 15 shows how the size and sex composition of the relatively small centenarian group has changed over the ten year period mid-2014 to mid-2024. The centenarian group has increased in size from 265 centenarians in mid-2014 to 294 centenarians in mid-2024, with the number of females consistently, and notably, exceeding the number of males.

Figure 15: Population aged 100 and over by sex (mid-2014 to mid-2024)

As a result of the relatively small number of people in the centenarian age group, small changes in the number of males and females can result in large changes in the proportional representation of males and females (see Figure 16).

Figure 16: Proportion of population aged 100 and over by sex (mid-2014 to mid-2024)

7. Population Estimates for areas within Northern Ireland

7.1 How has the population changed for Local Government Districts?

The estimated population for the 11 Local Government Districts (LGDs) in mid-2024 ranged from 117,700 people in Fermanagh & Omagh LGD to 352,400 in Belfast LGD. The mid-2024 population estimates by LGD are shown in Map 1.

Derry City and Strabane LGD experienced the largest population growth over the year (1.0 per cent)

Figure 17 presents the overall percentage population change for LGDs and the effect the components of change have had on the population. The population in 10 of the 11 LGDs increased in the year ending mid-2024. Derry City and Strabane LGD experienced the largest percentage increase in population (1.0 per cent), with positive net migration and other changes (0.9 per cent) being the main driver of population growth in this area. Newry, Mourne and Down LGD saw a slight net drop in population, with negative net migration and other changes (-0.4 per cent) greater than positive natural change (+0.2 per cent) over the year.

Figure 17: Components of population change by Local Government District, mid-2023 to mid-2024 (ordered by population change)

Map 1: Population estimates by Local Government District (mid-2024)

Population change in Local Government Districts over the decade

Figure 18 presents the overall percentage population change for LGDs in the decade between mid-2014 and mid-2024 and shows that all LGDs increased in population over the ten year period. Over the decade, population growth ranged from 0.4 per cent in Causeway Coast and Glens LGD to 9.0 per cent in Lisburn and Castlereagh LGD.

Figure 18: Percentage population change by Local Government District (mid-2014 to mid-2024) (ordered by population change)

7.2 What is the age structure of the population in Local Government Districts?

Almost one in four people (23.3 per cent) living in Ards and North Down in mid-2024 were estimated to be aged 65 and over

Some general themes can be observed when looking at the age distribution of Local Government Districts. Figure 19 shows that in mid-2024, Mid Ulster LGD had the highest proportion of children (i.e. people aged 0 to 15 years) among its population (22.7 per cent) and the second lowest proportion of population aged 65 and over (15.9 per cent). Conversely, Ards and North Down LGD had the lowest proportion of children (17.6 per cent) and the highest proportion of people aged 65 and over (23.3 per cent) in its population.

Belfast LGD had the highest proportion of the working age population (i.e. people aged 16 to 64 years) among its population (66.1 per cent), particularly at the younger working ages (people aged 16 to 39 years) (36.6 per cent). This may be attributable, in part, to Belfast being the primary centre for third-level education in Northern Ireland. Belfast LGD also had the lowest proportion of population aged 65 and over (15.2 per cent).

Figure 19: Age structure of Local Government Districts (mid-2024) (ordered alphabetically)

Median Age at Local Government District level

The differences in age distribution across the Local Government Districts can also be demonstrated using the median age [note 13]. The median age in mid-2024 ranged from 36.4 years in Belfast LGD to 45.3 years in Ards and North Down LGD. In addition, the median in all eleven LGDs has steadily increased over the decade from mid-2014. For example, the median age in Newry, Mourne and Down (37.0 years to 40.5 years), Derry City and Strabane (36.6 years to 40.0 years), Fermanagh and Omagh (38.5 years to 41.8 years) and Mid Ulster (35.2 years to 38.4 years) has increased by over 3.0 years from mid-2014 to mid-2024 respectively.

Notes

  1. The median age is the age of the person in the middle of the group, such that one half of the group is younger than that person and the other half is older.

9. Accredited Official Statistics

Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. Accredited Official Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards

Population Estimates for Northern Ireland last underwent a full assessment by the Statistics Authority against the Code of Practice in July 2015. The assessment report can be found on the NISRA website. Following the Statistics Authority assessment the continued designation of these statistics as National Statistics was confirmed in August 2016 by the UKSA designation paper.

Accredited Official Statistics status was confirmed subject to NISRA implementing six specific requirements. An action plan outlining how and when NISRA addressed each of these requirements can be found on the NISRA website.

An action plan checklist with supporting documentation can also be found on the Population Estimates and Projections for Northern Ireland section of the NISRA website.

In 2019, UK National Population Projections were subject to a compliance check by the UK Statistics Authority. As a result of this compliance check, it was confirmed that National Population Projections should continue to be designated as Accredited Official Statistics

Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued to comply with the code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

  • Improved clarity and insight by redesigning the statistical bulletin to include a key point’s summary for users. In addition, key point headlines have been included throughout the commentary, so users are alerted to key messages.

  • The associated data tables for mid-year population estimates are disseminated in a more innovative way by including a flat file and tabular format which users can interact with.

  • We improved the accessibility of mid-year population estimates and we are publishing data in 3* open data format on the NISRA Data Portal. We will publish the mid-2024 population estimates on the data on the NISRA data portal shortly. We have also included a new ‘Links to related statistics’ section within the bulletin so users can explore the whole population statistics package, including older person estimates, population projections, small area population estimates and a range of other material.

  • Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR)11. OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing or via the OSR website.

10. Background Notes

10.1 Population coverage

Mid-year population estimates relate to the usually resident population on 30 June of the reference year and ages relate to a person’s age at this mid-year period. Long term international migrants are included in population estimates; however, short term migrants are not. The definition of a long-term migrant which has been adopted from the United Nations is, ‘a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence’. Other changes include changes in armed forces personnel stationed in Northern Ireland.

10.2 Methodology

Population estimates for 2012-2020 contained within this report have been revised in line with the most recent Census 2021 population estimates. This was carried out by examining the difference between the rolled-forward 2011-based estimates for mid-2021 and the Census 2021-based estimates. A weighted cohort model was used to apply changes to the series from 2012 to 2020 at a Northern Ireland level initially. From there we have distributed to Local Government Districts (LGDs) up to mid-year 2020. A period adjustment was also applied to people of student age at LGD level, again up to mid-year 2020. The majority of the adjustment to this series was applied to international outward migration with some other changes applied to within Northern Ireland migration and ‘other’ unattributable changes.

10.3 Quality of administrative data

Population estimates are produced using a range of administrative data sources, the quality of which have been assessed in detail within the Population Estimates and Projections Data Quality Document. In addition, population estimates are compared to several administrative data sources including, active medical cards, electoral register, benefit claimants and National Insurance Number registrations to assure the quality of outputs. Any significant differences are examined further. NISRA also works closely with colleagues in the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and National Records of Scotland (NRS) to assure the quality of population estimates across the UK. A paper comparing the methodological approaches adopted by producers of population statistics across the UK is available on the ONS website.

10.4 Census 2021 and Rebasing Exercise of 2012-2020

The decennial census population estimate forms the baseline for the mid-year population estimates going forward. As each year from the baseline passes the accuracy of the population estimates slightly diminishes. Following the 2021 mid-year population estimates (published 29 November 2022) which were based on the results of the 2021 census, a reconciliation process, which looked at the intercensal drift between 2011 and 2021 was carried out. The rebased population estimates for this period are included in the 2011-2021 Rebased Mid-Year Population Estimates for Northern Ireland publication.

11. Limitations

Migration is the most difficult component of population change to measure due to the absence of an administrative dataset designed specifically for measuring migration. NISRA uses the medical card register as the source in the production of migration estimates, however, there are known deficiencies with this approach. For example, it is recognised that the medical card register is deficient in recording the movements of young adult males; therefore, the age distribution for movements of young adult males is adjusted to be similar to the age distribution for the movements of young adult females. Furthermore, not all outflows are measured fully by the medical card register and therefore outflows are scaled up by an additional 67 per cent. It is assumed only 3 out of 5 people will de register with their GP if they are leaving Northern Ireland (see Methodology Report for more detail).

England, Wales and Scotland previously used the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for producing official migration statistics. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced in August 2020 that they would not return to producing official migration statistics from the IPS and instead shift to a new approach that will rely on administrative data first and foremost (admin-based migration estimates (ABMEs)). This shift means that they currently base their estimates on actual patterns of migration, derived from Home Office visa applications, rather than relying on potential migrants to respond to survey questions about whether they are planning to remain in or out of the UK in the next 12 months. Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) works closely with ONS to ensure comprehensive and coherent UK and country level migration statistics.

While this means there is a methodological difference for the international migration estimates of Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, NISRA and ONS are content that the methods used for Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK yield robust estimates for the UK as a whole. Furthermore, Northern Ireland migration statistics have been previously assessed by UKSA, who found them to be fit for purpose [note 14].

Notes

  1. For more detail see the UKSA assessment on the NISRA website.

12. Enquiries and suggestions

Published by: Census Office, Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency

Lead Statistician: Shauna Dunlop

Telephone: 028 9025 5156

Email: census@nisra.gov.uk

Accessibility contact

Please contact Dissemination Branch for assistance with accessibility requirements or alternative formats. Contact details are:

Email:

Telephone: +44 (0)300 200 7836

Dissemination Branch
NISRA
Colby House
Stranmillis Court
BELFAST
BT9 5RR