1. Summary Findings
This annual bulletin provides information on the one year proven reoffending rate for offenders who received a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who were released from custody during 2023/24 within Northern Ireland. Information is presented in relation to the full cohort and also disaggregated in relation to adults (those aged 18 and over) and youths (those aged 17 and under).
Of the 20,887 people included in the 2023/24 cohort, 3,606 (17.3%) reoffended during the one year observation period (adults 17.0%, youths 23.0%).
Overall, 18.3% of males and 13.6% of females had reoffended (adult males 18.1% and adult females 13.2%, youth males 23.4% and youth females 21.7%).
In terms of offending history, 63.4% of the cohort had committed previous offences, ranging from one to 469 offences (adults 65.0%, youths 27.0%).
Of those who reoffended, 47.2% committed their first reoffence within the first three months (adults 47.0%, youths 51.0%).
The one year proven reoffending rate for;
• custody releases was 44.0% (adults 44.0%, 3 of 5 youths).
• community disposal (supervision) was 27.4% (adults 26.2%, youths 50.0%).
• community disposal (no supervision) was 16.3% (adults 16.3%, youths 25.5%).
• diversionary disposal was 16.2% (adults 14.8%, youths 21.6%).
The highest reoffending rates were found among those who committed a baseline robbery (20 out of 41) offence, followed by burglary (38.0%) and theft (28.9%). This was the same for adults only (robbery (20 out of 41), burglary (41.3%), theft (29.4%)). For youths, the highest reoffending rates were found among those who committed a baseline offence of public order (15 out of 44), followed by drugs (29.1%) and violence against the person (26.6%).
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2. Measuring Reoffending in Northern Ireland
This report provides information on the one year proven reoffending rate for individuals who received a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who were released from custody during 2023/24. Information is presented in relation to the full cohort and broken down by adults (those aged 18 and over at the time of disposal or release) and youths (those aged 17 and under at the time of disposal or release).
A summary of this methodology, revised in 2013 to bring it more in line with that in England and Wales, is included in Section 8 of this report. Full methodology is available at Department of Justice Reoffending Statistics (opens in new tab). Associated tables can be found in the accompanying spreadsheet Adult and Youth Reoffending in Northern Ireland (opens in a new tab). Corresponding table numbers are included within the report.
Figures reported throughout have not been adjusted to make allowances for factors known to influence reoffending, such as gender, age and criminal history. Therefore, it is inappropriate to compare findings with other results from within Northern Ireland or other jurisdictions.
The current cohort is the second since the pandemic to not overlap with any Covid-related restrictions; however the effects of the pandemic, including delays in case processing times and the impact of Covid recovery, may still have impacted upon numbers recorded in the current bulletin and future releases. This should be taken into consideration when interpreting findings from this publication and publications over the coming years as Covid recovery continues.
Figure 1: Timeline of measurement for the 2023/24 reoffending cohort
The next update covering the 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025 will be published in Autumn 2027. A full ASG Publication Schedule Excel (13KB) (opens in new tab) is available on the Department of Justice website.
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3. Overall Reoffending
The overall proven reoffending rate for the 2023/24 cohort was 17.3%. This represents a 0.3 percentage point decrease in the actual rate of reoffending from 2022/23 (17.6%). Previously the rate has fluctuated between a minimum of 16.5% and a maximum of 19.0%.
Reoffending Rate
A total of 20,887 offenders were included in the 2023/24 cohort. Overall, 17.3% (3,606) committed a proven reoffence within the year following release from custody, receiving a non-custodial court disposal, or a diversionary disposal. This represents a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the previous year (17.6%).
The number of individuals within the cohort and the number who reoffended increased from the previous year (by 514 and 15 respectively) (Figure 2 and Table 1a).
Figure 2: Overall reoffending cohorts, 2010/11 to 2023/24
Demographics
In terms of gender, 78.1% (16,306) of the overall cohort were male and 21.9% (4,581) were female; 18.3% of males (2,984) and 13.6% of females (622) reoffended within one year (Table 2). The male reoffending rate represents a 0.4 percentage point decrease and the female rate has had a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous cohort. Figures for males also include those categorised as ‘other’ (e.g. transgender, non-binary, gender not specified); these individuals make up less than 0.2% of the overall cohort.
When looking at the entire cohort by age, reoffending is generally highest among youths, peaking at ages 10 to 13 for males as well as females, before generally declining thereafter. Males and females follow a similar pattern, however reoffending rates for females are lower across most age bands, apart from ages 10 to 13 where it is equal, and higher at ages 14, 17 and 60+ (Figure 3 and Table 2). Please note the number of young people, particularly females, is generally low therefore these reoffending rates are more susceptible to fluctuation.
Figure 3: Reoffending rates by age at baseline and gender, 2023/24
Offending History
Over one-third of individuals (7,644) had no previous offences. The remaining 63.4% (13,243) had committed 233,699 previous offences within their lifetime, ranging from one to 469. As has been the case with previous years, the reoffending rate was highest among those with 11 or more previous offences (33.1%) (Table 3). Note that this only includes offences recorded on an individual’s criminal record.
Age at first recorded offence was calculated for each individual in the cohort. Since 2010/11, the rate of reoffending has generally been higher for those who committed their first recorded offence in their early teenage years; this steadily declines as age increases. As with previous years, within the current cohort, the highest reoffending rates were found among those aged 13 or under at the time of their first recorded offence (35.2%), while the lowest reoffending rates were found among those aged 60 or over (3.6%) at first recorded offence (Table 4).
Time between committing first offence and entering the current cohort was also calculated as an estimate of the length of time each person within the cohort has been engaging in criminal behaviours (Table 5). This represents a very simplistic measure and does not take into consideration the frequency or severity of offending during this period. However, there is a general trend, consistent throughout the time series, indicating that, although rates of reoffending initially increase as length of time between first offence and the date they enter the current cohort increases, after approximately 10 to 20 years reoffending rates decline. As was highlighted in Figure 3, reoffending rates generally decline as age increases so this trend is likely an interaction between ageing and reoffending behaviour.
Reoffences
There were 13,203 proven reoffences committed by 3,606 individuals during the observation year; with adults committing 12,254 and youths committing 949 offences. The number of reoffences per person ranged from one to 50. The greatest proportion of those who reoffended (65.6%) went on to commit one to three proven reoffences within the observation year (Table 6).
Figure 4: Reoffending interval by disposal group, 2023/24 1
- Offenders are counted once per disposal group, however they may
appear in more than one group.
Of those who reoffended, 21.5% (777) did so within the first month of being released from custody or receiving a non-custodial court or diversionary disposal. By three months, 47.2% (1,702) had reoffended. Although all disposal groups followed the same general trend, those released from custody were more likely to reoffend within the first month of release (36.2%). This rose to 64.6% within three months, and 84.1% by six months (Figure 4 and Table 7a).
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4. Adult Reoffending
The proven reoffending rate for adults in the 2023/24 cohort was 17.0%. This represents a 0.3 percentage point decrease in the reoffending rate from the previous year (17.3%). Over the years, the adult reoffending rate has fluctuated between 15.9% and 18.5%.
Reoffending Rate
A total of 19,984 adults were released from custody, given a non-custodial disposal at court or received a diversionary disposal in 2023/24; 17.0% (3,398) reoffended within one year. This represents a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the previous cohort (17.3%). The number of individuals within the cohort and the number who reoffended within one year increased from the previous year (by 529 and 28 respectively) (Figure 5 and Table 1b).
Figure 5: Adult reoffending cohorts, 2010/11 to 2023/24
Demographics
In terms of gender, 78.1% (15,615) of the adult cohort were male and 21.9% (4,369) were female; 18.1% of adult males (2,822) and 13.2% of adult females (576) reoffended within one year. The adult male reoffending rate represents a 0.3 percentage point decrease as well as the adult female rate which has increased by 0.1% from the previous cohort.
The highest reoffending rates for adult males were found among those aged 25-29 years old (23.5%); for adult females the highest reoffending rates were found among those aged 18-19 years old (16.9%) (Table 2).
Offending History
Approximately one-third of adults (6,985) had no previous offences. The remaining 65.0% (12,999) had committed 231,644 previous offences, ranging from one to 469 (based on criminal record only). The reoffending rate for adults with no previous offences was 7.3%, in contrast to 32.8% for adults with 11 or more previous offences (Table 3).
Reoffences
The 3,398 adults who reoffended committed 12,254 reoffences during the observation period, ranging from one to 35 offences per person. Just below one-third of adults who reoffended (31.5%) committed only one further offence within the observation year, while 5.6% committed 11 or more reoffences (Figure 6 and Table 6).
Figure 6: Reoffending rates by number of proven reoffences, 2023/24
Of the adults who went on to reoffend, 21.6% (733) did so within one month and and 47.0% (1,596) did so within three months. For adults, disposal groups followed the same trend as the overall cohort, with over half of those who reoffended following release from custody doing so within the first two months post-release (52.3%) (Table 7b).
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5. Youth Reoffending
The proven reoffending rate for youths in the 2023/24 cohort was 23.0%. This represents a decrease of 1.1 percentage points in the reoffending rate from 2022/23 (24.1%). The youth reoffending rate has fluctuated between 23.0% and 32.2%. Youths consistently make up a small proportion of the overall cohort.
Reoffending Rate
Youths have consistently made up a small proportion of the annual cohort, therefore there is likely to be more variation in youth reoffending rates from year-to-year. Currently, youths make up approximately four percent of the annual cohort (903 out of 20,887); 23.0% (208) of this cohort reoffended within one year of being released from custody, being given a non-custodial disposal at court or a diversionary disposal. The number of youths within the cohort decreased by 15 from the previous year while the number who reoffended within one year decreased by 13 (Figure 7 and Table 1c).
Figure 7: Youth reoffending cohorts, 2010/11 to 2023/24
Demographics
In terms of gender, 76.5% (691) of the youth cohort were male and 23.5% (212) were female; 23.4% of young males (162) and 21.7% of young females (46) reoffended within one year. This represents a 2.0 percentage point decrease for young males and a 2.2 percentage point increase for young females when compared to the previous cohort.
For young males, the highest reoffending rates were among those aged 10-13 years old (27.5%). The highest reoffending rates among young females were for those aged 10-13 years old (11 out of 40). (Table 2).
Offending History
Almost three-quarters of youths in the current cohort (659) had no previous offences. The remaining 27.0% (244) had committed 2,055 previous offences, ranging from one to 96 (based on criminal record only). The reoffending rate for youths with no previous offences was 15.9%, in contrast to 30 out of 48 for youths with 11 or more previous offences (Table 3).
Reoffences
The 208 youths who reoffended committed 949 reoffences during the observation year, ranging from one to 50 offences per young person. Almost half of youths who reoffended (47.6%) committed one or two further offences, while 10.1% committed 11 or more (Table 6).
Of the youths who went on to reoffend, 21.2% (44) did so within one month and 51.0% (106) did so within the first three months. By six months, more than three quarters (76.9%) of youths who went on to reoffend had done so (Table 7c).
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6. Disposal & Reoffending
Disposal Group
Disposals are grouped into four main categories:
People released from custody or young offender centre. This includes those released from serving a prison term only and those released under community supervision (e.g. Determinate Custodial Sentences); definitions for custodial sentence types can be found on the NI Direct website (opens in new window);
People given a non-custodial disposal at court that requires supervision in the community (e.g. Probation Order);
People given a non-custodial disposal at court that does not require supervision in the community (e.g. fine or suspended sentence);
People given a diversionary disposal (e.g. caution or informed warning).
Reoffending by Disposal Group
At 44.0%, those released from custody had the highest reoffending rate. This was followed by those given community supervision (27.4%), community other (16.3%) and diversionary disposals (16.2%).
A full breakdown of reoffending rates by baseline disposal for the current cohort can be found within the accompanying ODS file (Table 8). Note that reoffending rates should not be used to measure the comparative success of different disposal types as different offender characteristics, histories and offence types will themselves be related to the type of disposal given. Offender profiles therefore may differ substantially between the different disposal groups and types.
Figure 8: Reoffending rates by disposal group, 5 year trends
Compared with the previous cohort, the reoffending rate for those released from custody decreased by 2.0 percentage points (44.0%), while community supervision decreased by 1.1 percentage points, community other decreased by 0.6 percentage points and diversionary disposals increased by 0.2 percentage points. (Figure 8).
The reoffending rate for adults released from custody was 44.0%, while 3 of 5 youths released from custody also reoffended within one year. For community supervision, community other and diversionary disposals, adult reoffending rates were 26.2%, 16.3% and 14.8% respectively; the corresponding rates for youths were 50.0%, 25.5% and 21.6% respectively.
Reoffending by Custodial Sentence Length
As noted in the previous section, reoffending rates for custody releases are consistently higher than other disposal groups, however custodial reoffending rates can differ substantially depending on length of custodial sentence.
In 2023/24, 1,560 individuals were released from custody in Northern Ireland. Those released from sentences of 12 months or more reoffended at a substantially lower rate (22.6%) than those serving sentences of less than 12 months (48.6%). This latter figure includes individuals with sentences of up to 3 months, who have consistently had the highest reoffending rates throughout the time series (Figure 9 and Table 9).
Figure 9: Reoffending rates by custodial sentence length, 5 year trends
The current reoffending rate for sentences of less than 12 months (48.6%) decreased by 3.8 percentage points compared with the previous cohort (52.4%); sentences of 12 months or more increased by 3.3 percentage points (19.3% previously compared with 22.6% in the current cohort). Once again, care should be taken when interpreting these findings as these rates do not control for known differences in offender characteristics.
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7. Offence Type & Reoffending
Baseline Offence Category
Overall, reoffending rates were highest among those with a baseline offence category of robbery (20 out of 41), burglary (38.0%) or theft (28.9%) (Figure 10 and Table 10). This was the same for adults only (robbery (20 out of 41), burglary (41.3%), theft (29.4%)). Youth reoffending rates were highest for those whose baseline offence was public order (15 out of 44), drugs (29.1%) and violence against the person (26.6%). Those with a baseline sexual offence had the lowest overall reoffending rate (5.5%), a pattern that was also the same for adults. For youths, those with a baseline offence of possession of weapons had the lowest reoffending rate (3 out of 30).
It is interesting to note that, overall and for adults and youths, for those who committed a baseline offence relating to motoring, drugs, violence against the person (VAP) and theft, the largest proportion of first reoffences were for offences in the same category (Tables 11a, 11b and 11c).
Figure 10: Reoffending rates by baseline offence, 2023/24
Specified and Serious Offences
Overall, 11.3% (2,352) of the cohort had committed a baseline specified offence; 23.0% of these individuals (542) went on to reoffend, with 111 committing a further specified offence. When examined separately, 11.1% of the adult cohort (2,218) had committed a baseline specified offence; 23.2% (515) went on to reoffend, with 106 committing a further specified offence. For youths, 14.8% (134) had committed a specified offence, with 20.1% (27) reoffending, including 5 individuals who committed a further specified offence (Tables 12a and 12b).
A smaller proportion of the cohort (2.7%; 561) had committed a serious offence, of which 15.2% (85) reoffended, with 0 individuals committing a further serious offence.
In total, 2.6% of adults (523) had committed a baseline serious offence; 15.7% (82) reoffended, with 0 committing a further serious offence. For youths, 4.2% (38) had committed a serious offence; 3 reoffended but none committed a further serious offence (Tables 12a and 12b). See Section 8 for further information on specified and serious offences.
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8. Further Information
Methodology and Counting Rules
This section provides a brief summary of the methodology and counting rules used in the production of the Northern Ireland reoffending rates. For more detailed methodologies and glossaries providing definitions of key terms please refer to the two published methodology papers on the ‘Methodology and Quality Assurance’ section of the Department of Justice Reoffending Statistics webpage (opens in new window).
Who is included in the cohort?
The cohort is made up of all adults and youths who have been given a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who have been released from custody during the given financial year. An adult is defined as someone aged 18 or over at the time of community disposal or release from custody and a youth is defined as anyone aged 17 or under at this point. Information in this report is presented for the overall cohort (adults and youths combined) and separately for adults and youths.
It should be noted that ‘custody releases’ includes those released from custody following the completion of a sentence and excludes fine defaulters, those bailed or released following a period on remand, or those subject to extradition or transfer to another secure hospital facility.
What are the baseline date, offence and disposal?
The baseline date is the date of entry into the cohort (i.e. the date that a non-custodial sentence is given at court, a diversionary disposal imposed or an individual is released from custody). This date forms the starting point for the observation period.
The baseline offence is the principal offence associated with the baseline date. A review of offence categories was conducted in early 2020; figures for the 2019/20 cohort onwards are reported in line with revised offence categorisations.
Following user consultation, it has been agreed that an offender will be counted once within each relevant disposal category, including the initial baseline disposal associated with their entry into the cohort and also disposal categories associated within any subsequent proven reoffences.
What are the observation and follow up periods?
The observation period is the window of time over which a person is observed following receipt of a diversionary or non-custodial disposal at court or release from custody. A balance needs to be struck between the need for timely information and the need to make the reoffending rate as informative and meaningful as possible. For one year reoffending, the observation period is one year and the follow up period is six months.
What counts as a reoffence?
Under one year proven reoffending methodology an offence is counted as a reoffence if it:
occurs within the one year observation period;
has been committed within Northern Ireland;
is prosecuted via the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) and not a third party (e.g. the Department of Communities can bring some cases of benefit fraud);
is not a breach offence (e.g. breach of a probation order); and
has been ‘proven’, meaning that a court conviction or diversionary disposal has been imposed within the observation year or by the end of the 6 month follow up period.
What are serious and specified offences?
A number of offences have been designated as serious or specified, as per the Criminal Justice (NI) Order 2008 (opens in new window). These are the most serious of offences, for which the severity can justify an enhanced sentence, and will remain on an individual’s criminal record. Examples of serious and specified offences include murder, manslaughter, rape, kidnap, money laundering, violence, sexual crimes and safeguarding or child protection matters.
During September 2016 there was an internal Department of Justice exercise which made a small number of changes to offence classifications designated as specified or serious. This had a limited impact on the number of offences designated as ‘serious’. However, those offences designated as ‘specified’ have increased substantially. This should not be interpreted as an increase in such offences, but has resulted from the inclusion of additional offence types in this classification. As such, no comparison with years prior to the 2013/14 cohort can be made.
Data Source and Coverage
In Northern Ireland, the Causeway Data Sharing Mechanism is the main data source used to measure reoffending rates. The information used is primarily created from an extract of records held on the Criminal Records Viewer (CRV) on Causeway. It uses data which originated from PSNI, along with data from Northern Ireland Courts and Tribunals Service. Causeway is an interconnected information system, launched as a joint undertaking by the Criminal Justice Organisations in Northern Ireland. Information, regarding releases from custody, is also provided from the Northern Ireland Prison Service case management system (PRISM) and the Youth Justice Agency. Information on these offenders is matched to information taken from CRV.
Full details of data relevance, accuracy, timeliness, accessibility, coherence, user need, cost and confidentiality is available in the accompanying Background Quality Report PDF (273KB) (opens in new window). Details of the data quality checks and processes that DoJ has in place are available at Quality Assurance of Administrative Data (QAAD) PDF (502KB) (opens in new window).
Interpreting Trends
The ability to compare and discuss trends in reoffending is important to its usefulness as a performance target within government. However, differences in the offending related characteristics of those included in each cohort make comparing reoffending rates problematic, across both time and jurisdictions. In bulletins prior to 2017/18, reoffending figures were provided alongside adjusted reoffending rates for adults and the overall cohort, to help provide an estimate of change in reoffending. Following consultation with key users, the decision was taken to exclude this from future publications to avoid confusion in the interpretation of findings. We will continue to explore statistical techniques that could be employed to control for differences within the cohorts, meanwhile, care should be taken to understand the wider context within which offending and reoffending has occurred.
In addition, reoffending rates should not be used routinely to measure the comparative success of the different disposal types. As no adjustments have been made to control for offender characteristics or factors relating to variations in sentencing, such comparisons would be misleading.
Since 2015, there has been a consistent decline in the number of cases prosecuted and also in corresponding guilty findings. This has resulted in a further reduction in the size of the reoffending cohort. A further distorting factor for 2017/18 may be the significant reduction in disposals at the Crown Court. The introduction of new rules in May 2015 in relation to legal aid remuneration resulted in a number of solicitors and counsel withdrawing their representation from a range of court cases. This affected defendants’ access to legal aid representation and had an impact on disposals and delay within the Crown Court process during the period.
During September 2016 there was an internal Department of Justice exercise which made a small number of changes to offence classifications designated as specified or serious, as per the Criminal Justice (NI) Order 2008. This had a limited impact on the number of offences designated as ‘serious’. However, those offences designated as ‘specified’ have increased substantially. This should not be interpreted as an increase in such offences, but has resulted from the inclusion of additional offence types in this classification. As such, no comparison with years prior to the 2013/14 cohort can be made.
Contact
This bulletin is produced by Analytical Services Group, Department of Justice and is available in HTML format on the Department of Justice webpage (opens in new window). Alternatively, a PDF file can be provided upon request.
For further information contact:
Analytical Services Group, Financial Services Division, Department of Justice, Level 4, Block C, Castle Buildings, Stormont Estate, Belfast, BT4 3SG
Email: statistics.research@justice-ni.gov.uk
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