1. Summary Findings

  • This annual bulletin provides information on the one year proven reoffending rate for offenders who received a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who were released from custody during 2022/23 within Northern Ireland. Information is presented in relation to the full cohort and also disaggregated in relation to adults (those aged 18 and over) and youths (those aged 17 and under).

  • Of the 20,373 people included in the 2022/23 cohort, 3,591 (17.6%) reoffended during the one year observation period (adults 17.3%, youths 24.1%).

  • Overall, 18.7% of males and 13.4% of females had reoffended (adult males 18.4% and adult females 13.1%, youth males 25.4% and youth females 19.5%).

  • In terms of offending history, 63.7% of the cohort had committed previous offences, ranging from one to 455 offences (adults 65.5%, youths 27.2%).

  • Of those who reoffended, 46.2% committed their first reoffence within the first three months (adults 46.1%, youths 48.0%).

  • The one year proven reoffending rate for;

    • custody releases was 46.0% (adults 46.0%, 5 of 9 youths).

    • community disposal (supervision) was 28.5% (adults 26.8%, youths 58.3%).

    • community disposal (no supervision) was 16.9% (adults 16.8%, youths 31.8%).

    • diversionary disposal was 16.0% (adults 14.7%, youths 20.8%).

  • The highest reoffending rates were found among those who committed a baseline robbery (35.9%) offence, followed by burglary (35.1%) and theft (30.3%). This was the same for adults only (robbery (36.8%), burglary (36.0%), theft (31.0%)). For youths, the highest reoffending rates were found among those who committed a baseline offence of fraud (3 out of 5), followed by drugs (35.6%) and burglary (31.6%).


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2. Measuring Reoffending in Northern Ireland

This report provides information on the one year proven reoffending rate for individuals who received a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who were released from custody during 2022/23. Information is presented in relation to the full cohort and broken down by adults (those aged 18 and over at the time of disposal or release) and youths (those aged 17 and under at the time of disposal or release).

A summary of this methodology, revised in 2013 to bring it more in line with that in England and Wales, is included in Section 8 of this report. Full methodology is available at Department of Justice Reoffending Statistics (opens in new tab). Associated tables can be found in the accompanying spreadsheet Adult and Youth Reoffending in Northern Ireland (opens in a new tab). Corresponding table numbers are included within the report.

Figures reported throughout have not been adjusted to make allowances for factors known to influence reoffending, such as gender, age and criminal history. Therefore, it is inappropriate to compare findings with other results from within Northern Ireland or other jurisdictions.

The current cohort is the first since the pandemic that does not overlap with any Covid-related restrictions; however the effects of the pandemic, including delays in case processing times and the impact of Covid recovery, may still have impacted upon numbers recorded in the current bulletin and future releases. This should be taken into consideration when interpreting findings from this publication and publications over the coming years as Covid recovery continues.

Figure 1: Timeline of measurement for the 2022/23 reoffending cohort

Infographic displaying timeline of measurement for the reoffending cohort

The next update covering the 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024 will be published in Autumn 2026. A full ASG Publication Schedule Excel (13KB) (opens in new tab) is available on the Department of Justice website.


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3. Overall Reoffending

The overall proven reoffending rate for the 2022/23 cohort was 17.6%. This represents no change in the actual rate of reoffending from 2021/22 (17.6%). Previously the rate has fluctuated between a minimum of 16.5% and a maximum of 19.0%.

Reoffending Rate

A total of 20,373 offenders were included in the 2022/23 cohort. Overall, 17.6% (3,591) committed a proven reoffence within the year following release from custody, receiving a non-custodial court disposal, or a diversionary disposal. This represents no change from the previous year (17.6%).

The number of individuals within the cohort and the number who reoffended increased from the previous year (by 1,177 and 205 respectively) (Figure 2 and Table 1a).

Figure 2: Overall reoffending cohorts, 2010/11 to 2022/23

Demographics

In terms of gender, 79.1% (16,118) of the overall cohort were male and 20.9% (4,255) were female; 18.7% of males (3,019) and 13.4% of females (572) reoffended within one year (Table 2). The male reoffending rate represents no change and the female rate has had no change from the previous cohort. Figures for males also include those categorised as ‘other’ (e.g. transgender, non-binary, gender not specified); these individuals make up less than 0.1% of the overall cohort.

When looking at the entire cohort by age, reoffending is generally highest among teens, peaking at 15 for males and 17 for females, before generally declining thereafter. Males and females follow a similar pattern, however reoffending rates for females are lower across all age bands, apart from aged 60 and over (Figure 3 and Table 2). Please note the number of young people, particularly females, is generally low therefore these reoffending rates are more susceptible to fluctuation.

Figure 3: Reoffending rates by age at baseline and gender, 2022/23

Offending History

Over one-third of individuals (7,387) had no previous offences. The remaining 63.7% (12,976) had committed 227,625 previous offences within their lifetime, ranging from one to 455. As has been the case with previous years, the reoffending rate was highest among those with 11 or more previous offences (32.9%) (Table 3). Note that this only includes offences recorded on an individual’s criminal record.

Age at first recorded offence was calculated for each individual in the cohort. Since 2010/11, the rate of reoffending has generally been higher for those who committed their first recorded offence in their early teenage years; this steadily declines as age increases. As with previous years, within the current cohort, the highest reoffending rates were found among those aged 13 or under at the time of their first recorded offence (35.3%), while the lowest reoffending rates were found among those aged 60 or over (3.3%) at first recorded offence (Table 4).

Time between committing first offence and entering the current cohort was also calculated as an estimate of the length of time each person within the cohort has been engaging in criminal behaviours (Table 5). This represents a very simplistic measure and does not take into consideration the frequency or severity of offending during this period. However, there is a general trend, consistent throughout the time series, indicating that, although rates of reoffending initially increase as length of time between first offence and the date they enter the current cohort increases, after approximately 10 to 20 years reoffending rates decline. As was highlighted in Figure 3, reoffending rates generally decline as age increases so this trend is likely an interaction between ageing and reoffending behaviour.

Reoffences

There were 12,895 proven reoffences committed by 3,591 individuals during the observation year; with adults committing 11,741 and youths committing 1,154 offences. The number of reoffences per person ranged from one to 83. The greatest proportion of those who reoffended (68.3%) went on to commit one to three proven reoffences within the observation year (Table 6).

Figure 4: Reoffending interval by disposal group, 2022/23 1

  1. Offenders are counted once per disposal group, however they may appear in more than one group.

Of those who reoffended, 20.6% (740) did so within the first month of being released from custody or receiving a non-custodial court or diversionary disposal. By three months, 46.2% (1,660) had reoffended. Although all disposal groups followed the same general trend, those released from custody were more likely to reoffend within the first month of release (30.2%). This rose to 59.2% within three months, and 81.1% by six months (Figure 4 and Table 7a).


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4. Adult Reoffending

The proven reoffending rate for adults in the 2022/23 cohort was 17.3%.This represents a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the reoffending rate from the previous year (17.4%). Over the years, the adult reoffending rate has fluctuated between 15.9% and 18.5%.

Reoffending Rate

A total of 19,455 adults were released from custody, given a non-custodial disposal at court or received a diversionary disposal in 2022/23; 17.3% (3,370) reoffended within one year. This represents a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous cohort (17.4%). The number of individuals within the cohort and the number who reoffended within one year increased from the previous year (by 1,120 and 186 respectively) (Figure 5 and Table 1b).

Figure 5: Adult reoffending cohorts, 2010/11 to 2022/23

Demographics

In terms of gender, 79.2% (15,410) of the adult cohort were male and 20.8% (4,045) were female; 18.4% of adult males (2,839) and 13.1% of adult females (531) reoffended within one year. The adult male reoffending rate represents no change as well as the adult female rate which has not changed from the previous cohort.

The highest reoffending rates for adult males were found among those aged 25-29 years old (23.1%); for adult females the highest reoffending rates were found among those aged 25-29 years old (19.2%) (Table 2).

Offending History

Approximately one-third of adults (6,729) had no previous offences. The remaining 65.5% (12,726) had committed 225,748 previous offences, ranging from one to 455 (based on criminal record only). The reoffending rate for adults with no previous offences was 7.5%, in contrast to 32.7% for adults with 11 or more previous offences (Table 3).

Reoffences

The 3,370 adults who reoffended committed 11,741 reoffences during the observation period, ranging from one to 44 offences per person. Just below one-third of adults who reoffended (32.6%) committed only one further offence within the observation year, while 5.2% committed 11 or more reoffences (Figure 6 and Table 6).

Figure 6: Reoffending rates by number of proven reoffences, 2022/23

Of the adults who went on to reoffend, 20.9% (703) did so within one month and and 46.1% (1,554) did so within three months. For adults, disposal groups followed the same trend as the overall cohort, with almost half of those who reoffended following release from custody doing so within the first two months post-release (46.5%) (Table 7b).


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5. Youth Reoffending

The proven reoffending rate for youths in the 2022/23 cohort was 24.1%. This represents an increase of 0.6 percentage points in the reoffending rate from 2021/22 (23.5%). The youth reoffending rate has fluctuated between 23.5% and 32.2%. Youths consistently make up a small proportion of the overall cohort.

Reoffending Rate

Youths have consistently made up a small proportion of the annual cohort, therefore there is likely to be more variation in youth reoffending rates from year-to-year. Currently, youths make up approximately five percent of the annual cohort (918 out of 20,373); 24.1% (221) of this cohort reoffended within one year of being released from custody, being given a non-custodial disposal at court or a diversionary disposal. The number of youths within the cohort increased by 57 from the previous year while the number who reoffended within one year increased by 19 (Figure 7 and Table 1c).

Figure 7: Youth reoffending cohorts, 2010/11 to 2022/23

Demographics

In terms of gender, 77.1% (708) of the youth cohort were male and 22.9% (210) were female; 25.4% of young males (180) and 19.5% of young females (41) reoffended within one year. This represents a 1.1 percentage point increase for young males and a 0.9 percentage point decrease for young females when compared to the previous cohort.

For young males, the highest reoffending rates were among those aged 15 years old (27.6%). The highest reoffending rates among young females were for those aged 17 years old (25.5%). (Table 2).

Offending History

Almost three-quarters of youths in the current cohort (668) had no previous offences. The remaining 27.2% (250) had committed 1,877 previous offences, ranging from one to 130 (based on criminal record only). The reoffending rate for youths with no previous offences was 16.3%, in contrast to 60.5% for youths with 11 or more previous offences (Table 3).

Reoffences

The 221 youths who reoffended committed 1,154 reoffences during the observation year, ranging from one to 83 offences per young person. Almost half of youths who reoffended (48.0%) committed one or two further offences, while 11.8% committed 11 or more (Table 6).

Of the youths who went on to reoffend, 16.7% (37) did so within one month and 48.0% (106) did so within the first three months. By six months, more than three quarters (76.0%) of youths who went on to reoffend had done so (Table 7c).


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6. Disposal & Reoffending

Disposal Group

Disposals are grouped into four main categories:

  1. People released from custody or young offender centre. This includes those released from serving a prison term only and those released under community supervision (e.g. Determinate Custodial Sentences); definitions for custodial sentence types can be found on the NI Direct website (opens in new window);

  2. People given a non-custodial disposal at court that requires supervision in the community (e.g. Probation Order);

  3. People given a non-custodial disposal at court that does not require supervision in the community (e.g. fine or suspended sentence);

  4. People given a diversionary disposal (e.g. caution or informed warning).

Reoffending by Disposal Group

At 46.0%, those released from custody had the highest reoffending rate. This was followed by those given community supervision (28.5%), community other (16.9%) and diversionary disposals (16.0%).

A full breakdown of reoffending rates by baseline disposal for the current cohort can be found within the accompanying ODS file (Table 8). Note that reoffending rates should not be used to measure the comparative success of different disposal types as different offender characteristics, histories and offence types will themselves be related to the type of disposal given. Offender profiles therefore may differ substantially between the different disposal groups and types.

Reoffending by Custodial Sentence Length

As noted in the previous section, reoffending rates for custody releases are consistently higher than other disposal groups, however custodial reoffending rates can differ substantially depending on length of custodial sentence.

In 2022/23, 1,357 individuals were released from custody in Northern Ireland. Those released from sentences of 12 months or more reoffended at a substantially lower rate (19.3%) than those serving sentences of less than 12 months (52.4%). This latter figure includes individuals with sentences of up to 3 months, who have consistently had the highest reoffending rates throughout the time series (Figure 9 and Table 9).

7. Offence Type & Reoffending

Baseline Offence Category

Overall, reoffending rates were highest among those with a baseline offence category of robbery (35.9%), burglary (35.1%) or theft (30.3%) (Figure 10 and Table 10). This was the same for adults only (robbery (36.8%), burglary (36.0%), theft (31.0%)). Youth reoffending rates were highest for those whose baseline offence was fraud (3 out of 5), drugs (35.6%) and burglary (31.6%). Those with a baseline sexual offence had the lowest overall reoffending rate (8.1%), a pattern that was also the same for adults and youths.

It is interesting to note that, overall and for adults and youths, for those who committed a baseline offence relating to motoring, drugs, violence against the person (VAP) and theft, the largest proportion of first reoffences were for offences in the same category (Tables 11a, 11b and 11c).

Figure 10: Reoffending rates by baseline offence, 2022/23

Specified and Serious Offences

Overall, 11.4% (2,330) of the cohort had committed a baseline specified offence; 23.4% of these individuals (545) went on to reoffend, with 160 committing a further specified offence. When examined separately, 11.1% of the adult cohort (2,160) had committed a baseline specified offence; 23.4% (511) went on to reoffend, with 153 committing a further specified offence. For youths, 18.5% (170) had committed a specified offence, with 20.0% (34) reoffending, including 7 individuals who committed a further specified offence (Tables 12a and 12b).

A smaller proportion of the cohort (2.7%; 560) had committed a serious offence, of which 13.8% (77) reoffended, with 3 individuals committing a further serious offence.

In total, 2.7% of adults (518) had committed a baseline serious offence; 14.3% (74) reoffended, with 3 committing a further serious offence. For youths, 4.6% (42) had committed a serious offence; 3 reoffended but none committed a further serious offence (Tables 12a and 12b). See Section 8 for further information on specified and serious offences.


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8. Further Information

Methodology and Counting Rules

This section provides a brief summary of the methodology and counting rules used in the production of the Northern Ireland reoffending rates. For more detailed methodologies and glossaries providing definitions of key terms please refer to the two published methodology papers on the ‘Methodology and Quality Assurance’ section of the Department of Justice Reoffending Statistics webpage (opens in new window).

Who is included in the cohort?

The cohort is made up of all adults and youths who have been given a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who have been released from custody during the given financial year. An adult is defined as someone aged 18 or over at the time of community disposal or release from custody and a youth is defined as anyone aged 17 or under at this point. Information in this report is presented for the overall cohort (adults and youths combined) and separately for adults and youths.

It should be noted that ‘custody releases’ includes those released from custody following the completion of a sentence and excludes fine defaulters, those bailed or released following a period on remand, or those subject to extradition or transfer to another secure hospital facility.

What are the baseline date, offence and disposal?

The baseline date is the date of entry into the cohort (i.e. the date that a non-custodial sentence is given at court, a diversionary disposal imposed or an individual is released from custody). This date forms the starting point for the observation period.

The baseline offence is the principal offence associated with the baseline date. A review of offence categories was conducted in early 2020; figures for the 2019/20 cohort onwards are reported in line with revised offence categorisations.

Following user consultation, it has been agreed that an offender will be counted once within each relevant disposal category, including the initial baseline disposal associated with their entry into the cohort and also disposal categories associated within any subsequent proven reoffences.

What are the observation and follow up periods?

The observation period is the window of time over which a person is observed following receipt of a diversionary or non-custodial disposal at court or release from custody. A balance needs to be struck between the need for timely information and the need to make the reoffending rate as informative and meaningful as possible. For one year reoffending, the observation period is one year and the follow up period is six months.

What counts as a reoffence?

Under one year proven reoffending methodology an offence is counted as a reoffence if it:

  • occurs within the one year observation period;

  • has been committed within Northern Ireland;

  • is prosecuted via the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) and not a third party (e.g. the Department of Communities can bring some cases of benefit fraud);

  • is not a breach offence (e.g. breach of a probation order); and

  • has been ‘proven’, meaning that a court conviction or diversionary disposal has been imposed within the observation year or by the end of the 6 month follow up period.

What are serious and specified offences?

A number of offences have been designated as serious or specified, as per the Criminal Justice (NI) Order 2008 (opens in new window). These are the most serious of offences, for which the severity can justify an enhanced sentence, and will remain on an individual’s criminal record. Examples of serious and specified offences include murder, manslaughter, rape, kidnap, money laundering, violence, sexual crimes and safeguarding or child protection matters.

During September 2016 there was an internal Department of Justice exercise which made a small number of changes to offence classifications designated as specified or serious. This had a limited impact on the number of offences designated as ‘serious’. However, those offences designated as ‘specified’ have increased substantially. This should not be interpreted as an increase in such offences, but has resulted from the inclusion of additional offence types in this classification. As such, no comparison with years prior to the 2013/14 cohort can be made.

Data Source and Coverage

In Northern Ireland, the Causeway Data Sharing Mechanism is the main data source used to measure reoffending rates. The information used is primarily created from an extract of records held on the Criminal Records Viewer (CRV) on Causeway. It uses data which originated from PSNI, along with data from Northern Ireland Courts and Tribunals Service. Causeway is an interconnected information system, launched as a joint undertaking by the Criminal Justice Organisations in Northern Ireland. Information, regarding releases from custody, is also provided from the Northern Ireland Prison Service case management system (PRISM) and the Youth Justice Agency. Information on these offenders is matched to information taken from CRV.

Full details of data relevance, accuracy, timeliness, accessibility, coherence, user need, cost and confidentiality is available in the accompanying Background Quality Report PDF (273KB) (opens in new window). Details of the data quality checks and processes that DoJ has in place are available at Quality Assurance of Administrative Data (QAAD) PDF (502KB) (opens in new window).

Contact

This bulletin is produced by Analytical Services Group, Department of Justice and is available in HTML format or downloadable via PDF on the Department of Justice webpage (opens in new window).

For further information contact:

Analytical Services Group, Financial Services Division, Department of Justice, Level 4, Block C, Castle Buildings, Stormont Estate, Belfast, BT4 3SG

Email: statistics.research@justice-ni.gov.uk

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