1. Overview

This summary provides key labour market results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the year ending 31st December 2023. Headline employment, unemployment and economic inactivity estimates are included.

1.1 Key points

The Northern Ireland (NI) unemployment rate (aged 16 and over) in 2023 was estimated at 2.2%. The unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous year (2.2%) .The annual change was not statistically significant.

2. Unemployment
The 2023 employment rate (proportion of those aged 16 to 64 in work) in NI was estimated at 73.6%. The employment rate increased from the previous year (71.9%) by 1.7 percentage points (pps). The annual change was statistically significant.

3. Employment
The 2023 economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working nor seeking or available to work) in NI was estimated at 24.7%. The economic inactivity rate decreased from the previous year (26.3%) by 1.6 percentage points (pps). The annual change was statistically significant.

4. Economic inactivity

1.2 Context

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.

1.3 Things users need to know

This publication contains the first release of 2023 annual data for headline economic indicators.

Further breakdowns of annual data are planned for later in the year and users will be kept informed in due course.


2. Unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The Northern Ireland (NI) unemployment rate (aged 16 and over) in 2023 was estimated at 2.2%. The unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous year and decreased significantly by 5.1 percentage points (pps) over the decade.
  • The number of unemployed persons aged 16 and over in 2023 was estimated at 20,000, this figure was unchanged over the year and decreased by 42,000 over the decade.
  • The unemployment rate (16 and over) in 2023 was estimated at 2.8% for males and 1.6% for females.

Of those aged 16 and over who were unemployed in 2023, 65% (13,000) were male and 35% (7,000) were female. The changes by gender included:

  • The male (16 and over) unemployment rate (2.8%) was unchanged over the year.
  • The female (16 and over) unemployment rate (1.6%) decreased by 0.1pps over the year.

Figure 1: The unemployment rate remains unchanged from 2022

Northern Ireland unemployment rate (16 and over), Jan to Dec 2013 to Jan to Dec 2023
Chart
Table
Year Male Unemployment Rate (%) Females Unemployment Rate (%) Northern Ireland Unemployment Rate (%)
2013 9.4 4.8 7.3
2014 7.7 4.9 6.4
2015 7.2 4.6 6.0
2016 6.9 5.1 6.1
2017 5.6 3.1 4.4
2018 4.4 2.9 3.7
2019 2.7 2.4 2.6
2020 2.9 3.0 2.9
2021 4.3 3.1 3.7
2022 2.7 1.7 2.2
2023 2.8 1.6 2.2


Figure 1 shows the unemployment rates for NI and for males and females over the last 10 years. The 2023 unemployment rate for NI is the joint lowest in the series at 2.2%, remaining unchanged from last year (2.2% in 2022). The unemployment rate has been higher for males than for females for the majority of this period. The gap between the unemployment rates for males and females saw a decrease from 4.7pps in 2013 to a minimal difference of less than 0.1pps in 2020, it has widened in the three years since to 1.2pps in 2023.


3. Employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The Northern Ireland (NI) employment rate (aged 16 to 64) in 2023 was estimated at 73.6%, a significant increase of 1.7 percentage points (pps) over the year and a significant increase of 6.5pps over the decade.
  • The number of employed persons aged 16 to 64 in 2023 was estimated at 863,000, an increase of 22,000 over the year and an increase of 86,000 over the decade.
  • The employment rate (16 to 64) for males in 2023 was estimated at 76.6% and the female rate was estimated at 70.7%.

Of those aged 16 to 64 who were employed in 2023, 52% (445,000) were male and 48% (418,000) were female. The changes by gender included:

  • The male (16 to 64) employment rate (76.6%) increased by 1.2pps over the year.
  • The female (16 to 64) employment rate (70.7%) increased by 2.1pps over the year.

Figure 2: The NI employment rate has exceeded prepandemic levels

Northern Ireland employment rate (16 to 64), Jan to Dec 2013 to Jan to Dec 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Year Male Employment Rate (%) Female Employment Rate (%) NI Employment Rate (%)
2013 71.4 62.9 67.1
2014 72.4 63.1 67.7
2015 73.3 63.7 68.4
2016 74.3 64.5 69.4
2017 72.9 65.3 69.1
2018 73.5 66.5 70.0
2019 75.8 68.1 71.9
2020 74.6 65.2 69.8
2021 72.4 68.1 70.2
2022 75.4 68.5 71.9
2023 76.6 70.7 73.6


Figure 2 shows the employment rates for NI and for males and females over the last 10 years. It shows that the NI employment rate in 2023 (73.6%) has exceeded the pre pandemic level of 71.9% in 2019. The employment rate has been higher for males than for females over the whole time period. The employment gap between males and females was the smallest in the series in 2021 (4.3pps) but has since widened to 5.9pps in 2023.


4. Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The Northern Ireland (NI) inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) in 2023 was estimated at 24.7%, a significant decrease of 1.6 percentage points (pps) over the year and a significant decrease of 2.7pps over the decade.
  • The number of inactive persons aged 16 to 64 in 2023 was estimated at 290,000, a decrease of 18,000 over the year and a decrease of 28,000 over the decade.
  • The inactivity rate (16 to 64) for males in 2023 was estimated at 21.2% and the female rate was estimated at 28.2%.

Of those aged 16 to 64 who were inactive in 2023, 42% (123,000) were male and 58% (167,000) were female. The changes by gender included:

  • The male (16 to 64) inactivity rate (21.2%) decreased by 1.2pps over the year.
  • The female (16 to 64) inactivity rate (28.2%) decreased by 2.1pps over the year.

Figure 3: Female economic inactivity has been consistently higher than males

Northern Ireland economic inactivity rate (16 to 64), 2013 to Jan to Dec 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Year Male Inactivity Rate (%) Female Inactivity Rate (%) NI Inactivity Rate (%)
2013 21.0 33.8 27.5
2014 21.4 33.6 27.6
2015 20.8 33.2 27.1
2016 20.0 31.9 26.0
2017 22.6 32.5 27.6
2018 23.0 31.4 27.2
2019 22.0 30.2 26.2
2020 23.1 32.7 28.0
2021 24.2 29.7 27.0
2022 22.4 30.3 26.3
2023 21.2 28.2 24.7


Figure 3 shows that the economic inactivity rate has decreased significantly since 2022 by 1.6pps. The NI rate in 2023 (24.7%) is the lowest in the series. The economic inactivity rate for females has been consistently higher than males. The economic inactivity gap between females and males was the smallest in the series in 2021 (5.5pps), it has increased to 7.0pps in 2023, however it is still smaller than the rest of the series.


5. Further information

Background

The LFS annual dataset used for this publication is derived from four consecutive quarters of the LFS.

Individuals in each wave are interviewed in five successive quarters, such that in any quarter, one wave will be receiving their first interview, one wave their second, and so on, with one receiving their fifth and final interview. The annual dataset is created by selecting the relevant cases from each quarter and combining them to create a dataset of unique cases. Selecting all wave one and five interviews allows the maximum number of respondents over a one-year period to be included whilst avoiding double counting. The resulting sample size of the 2023 dataset is approximately 11,000 individuals. The sample size has returned to the pre-pandemic sample size in 2019 (11,000 individuals).

The LFS collects information from a sample of the population living in households. To provide estimates for the entire population, the data must be grossed. This is achieved by creating grossing factors often referred to as weights, that can be applied to each sampled individual so that grossed results match published population data in terms of age distribution, sex and region of residence. Mid-year population estimates and projections are used to ensure that the LFS is grossed to the most up to date population data available.

LFS revisions

LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates. The population totals for January-March 2020 to June-August 2022, however, used projected growth rates from RTI data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used at that time for the LFS therefore did not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates etc. since June 2021 and hence the estimates of levels may have been under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates for this period will, however, be robust.

The latest LFS reweighting was introduced in February 2024, affecting data from July-September 2022 to September-November 2023, to incorporate the latest estimates of the size and composition of the UK population. This reweighting only effected quarterly data.

Since the onset of the pandemic, there have been three LFS reweightings of annual data to improve the estimates. In June 2022, the LFS quarterly estimates were reweighted from January-March 2020 to January-March 2022 using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data. An overview of the Impact of Reweighting on the NI quarterly estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website. This paper also contains the detail on two previous LFS reweightings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in October 2020 and July 2021.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The LFS is a sample survey and, as such, estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability. If we drew many samples each would give a different result.The ranges shown for the LFS data in the headline tables 1.1 to 1.3 represent 95% confidence intervals i.e. we would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value. See the Estimating and Reporting Uncertainty Paper for details.

If the annual change of an estimate is larger than the ‘confidence interval around the change’, the change is statistically significant. If none of the reported changes over the year were statistically significant, then the recorded changes did not exceed the variability expected from a sample survey of this size.

Publication thresholds

Thresholds are used to determine whether LFS data are suitably robust for publication. Estimates under a cell count of 3 are disclosive and therefore suppressed. Shaded estimates are based on a small sample size. This may result in less precise estimates, which should be used with caution, in particular should not be used to make statements on relative size when compared to similar values. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

LFS definitions

Employment: The definition of ILO employed applies to anyone (aged 16 or over) who has carried out at least one hour’s paid work in the week prior to interview, or has a job they are temporarily away from (e.g. on holiday). Also included are people who do unpaid work in a family business and people on Government-supported employment training schemes. In this publication employment estimates are for the working age (16 to 64) population.

Employment rate: The employment rate is the percentage of all working age (16 to 64) people who are employed.

Unemployment: The definition of unemployment used in the LFS is in accordance with that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). ILO unemployed includes those without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate is the percentage of economically active people (16 and over) who are unemployed.

Economic inactivity: Economic inactivity applies to those individuals who are neither in employment nor unemployed on the ILO measure.

Economic inactivity rate: The economic inactivity rate is the percentage of people of working age who are economically inactive.

6. Contacts

If you require further information about the figures contained in this publication or the accompanying tables, or would like to provide feedback on the publication content please contact the Labour Force Survey section using the details below

Holly McAteer

Email: LFS@finance-ni.gov.uk
Web: Labour Force Survey

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5. Accredited Official Statistics Status

These official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for Statistics. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and are therefore labelled as accredited official statistics. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. For further information, please refer to the Office for Statistics Regulation accredited official statistics webpage.

As outlined above, our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards using the details in Section 4.

Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing or via the OSR website.