All tables associated with this report can be downloaded from the NISRA website.

1. Overview

1.1 Key points

The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in September 2023 was 793,700, an increase of 0.3% over the month and an increase of 1.7% over the year.

Employment section 3.3
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,097 in September 2023. This was unchanged over the month and an increase of £132 (6.7%) over the year.

Employment section 3.4
In September 2023, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 37,800 (3.9% of the workforce), an increase of 3.1% from the previous month’s revised figure. The September 2023 claimant count remains 26.5% higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

Unemployment section 2.2
NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 420 redundancies occurred in September 2023. Over the year October 2022 to September 2023, 1,810 redundancies were confirmed, 64.0% more than in the previous 12 months. There were 170 proposed redundancies in September 2023, taking the annual total to 4,390 (over three times more than in the previous 12 months).

Unemployment section 2.3
The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people age 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period June-August 2023 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.3%. This was a decrease of 0.2 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and a decrease of 0.7pps over the year.

Unemployment section 2.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) was unchanged over the quarter and increased by 2.1pps over the year to 72.0%.

Employment section 3.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) increased by 0.3pps over the quarter and decreased by 1.4pps over the year to 26.4%.

Economic inactivity section 4.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The total number of weekly hours worked in NI was estimated at 27.7 million hours, a decrease of 3.1% on the previous quarter and an increase of 3.9% on the equivalent period last year.

Employment section 3.2

1.2 Commentary

Today’s release updates the Labour Market Report published on Tuesday 17th October which contained HMRC Real Time Information data and redundancy data only to now include Labour Force Survey and Claimant Count results.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has taken the decision to not publish the unadjusted June to August 2023 LFS data today, explaining the reason for their decision in this statement. Instead, the ONS will publish a new series using additional data sources to produce adjusted levels and rates for employment, unemployment and inactivity for the latest two 3-monthly periods (May to July 2023 and June to August 2023) at a UK level only.

Response rates to the Northern Ireland Labour Force Survey (LFS) continue to be robust and NISRA considers that the survey in Northern Ireland continues to provide the best possible indicators for the local labour market.

For further information, please see section 1.3 - Things users need to know.

The latest Labour Market release shows that over the year both payrolled employee numbers and earnings have increased. In addition, the Labour Force Survey employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity rates have all shown little change when compared to one year ago.

The latest HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.3% over the month and increased by 1.7% over the year. Payrolled earnings were unchanged over the month and were 6.7% higher than September 2022.

Households reported, via the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a 2.1pps increase in the employment rate over the year to June-August 2023, to 72.0%, while there were decreases over the year to June-August 2023 in both the economic inactivity rate (by 1.4pps to 26.4%) and the unemployment rate (by 0.7pps to 2.3%). The unemployment rate of 2.3% for June-August 2023 is equal to the series low point recorded in September-November 2019. Caution is advised when interpreting these results however as none of the annual changes were statistically significant. At June-August 2023, the unemployment rate was 0.2pps below the pre-pandemic rate recorded in December-February 2020, while the employment rate for June-August 2023 was 0.5pps below the pre-pandemic position. The economic inactivity rate was 0.8pps above the pre-pandemic position recorded in December-February 2020.

The total number of hours worked in June-August 2023 increased by 3.9% over the year, to 27.7 million hours per week. This is 3.3% below the pre-pandemic position recorded in December-February 2020.

There was an increase of 3.1% in the claimant count estimate over the month to September 2023 from the revised figure for August 2023. The claimant count rate also increased, to 3.9%, over the month to September 2023. This is the first month that the claimant count rate has been above 3.8% since March 2022. This increase has been driven by an increase in female claimants over the last twelve months, by 18.9%, compared to a decrease in male claimants, by 1.5%, in this time period.

Finally, the Department was notified of 420 confirmed redundancies in September 2023, which brought the rolling twelve-month total of confirmed redundancies to 1,810. This is the seventh consecutive month that this total has been over 1,000, and equals the highest total recorded since March 2022, although this figure is still well below the long term trend. There were also 170 proposed redundancies notified to the Department in September 2023, bringing the annual total covering October 2022 to September 2023 to 4,390. This is the second-highest rolling twelve-month total since August 2021 and is similar to pre-pandemic levels.

1.3 Things users need to know

Publication of the updated NI labour market statistics publication

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has taken the decision to not publish the unadjusted June to August 2023 LFS data today, explaining the reason for their decision in this statement. Instead, the ONS will publish a new series using additional data sources to produce adjusted levels and rates for employment, unemployment and inactivity for the latest two 3-monthly periods (May to July 2023 and June to August 2023) at a UK level only.

Response rates to the Northern Ireland Labour Force Survey (LFS) continue to be robust and NISRA considers that the survey in Northern Ireland continues to provide the best possible indicators for the local labour market. Accordingly, users are advised that NISRA have published the Northern Ireland LFS results for June to August 2023 today as planned and previously announced on Friday 13th October.

NISRA will continue to work collaboratively with the ONS and other National Statistics Institutes across the UK on the production of key labour market indicators.

Labour Market Statistics – Transformation in Northern Ireland

NISRA aims to provide the most accurate and up-to-date statistics about the local labour market. To achieve this, a number of initiatives are being taken forward including greater use of administrative data sources such as HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Pay As You Earn data and the transformation of the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

Most of our labour market statistics will continue to be obtained from surveys completed by either households or businesses. Using surveys to collect labour market statistics is an effective and proven approach that delivers trusted results. In the next two years, NISRA are working towards transforming how we deliver key labour market surveys.

The transformation of the Labour Force Survey focuses on improving the design of the LFS and quality of its outputs. It will use enhanced address registers, improved sampling, and transform to a respondent led, online first approach supported by telephone collection and “knock to nudge” processes. To account for this, the transformation has also focused on a respondent-centred design of questions.

More details on the transformation plan will be published soon.

The goal of these initiatives is to reduce the time and effort needed to collect survey data, to improve overall response and to provide more accurate and relevant statistics.

Labour Market Statistics Newsletter

The third Labour Market Statistics Newsletter was released on Tuesday 15th August 2023, available on the NISRA website at: Labour Market Statistics Newsletter - August 2023.

This newsletter provides users with an overview of things they may have missed since the last user group meeting in September 2022.

Please note that the Labour Market User Group meeting has been rescheduled until Wednesday 15th November 2023, this is with the expectation that we will be able to give a more comprehensive picture of the plans going forward on the NI Labour Market Survey.

LFS Reweighting - Update

The reweighting of the Labour Force Survey originally planned for October 2023 will now not happen. Instead, the Office for National Statistics will be updating the weighting when the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) is introduced in March 2024 to ensure that the most consistent and up-to-date population estimates are used. They intend to use the next population estimates (for mid-year 2022) which will be released on 23 November 2023, in weighting the TLFS.

1.4 Context

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI.

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 (Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page) showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.


2. Unemployment

2.1 Labour Force Survey unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The NI unemployment rate for June-August 2023 decreased over both the quarter and the year to 2.3%.
  • The most recent UK unemployment rate for March-May 2023 was estimated at 4.0%.

Figure 1: NI unemployment rate remains below UK rate

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over), Jun-Aug 2008 to Jun-Aug 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Jun-Aug 2008 4.1 5.7
Sep-Nov 2008 4.3 6.2
Dec-Feb 2009 5.9 6.7
Mar-May 2009 6.3 7.6
Jun-Aug 2009 6.8 7.9
Sep-Nov 2009 6.7 7.8
Dec-Feb 2010 6.5 7.9
Mar-May 2010 7.1 7.9
Jun-Aug 2010 6.9 7.8
Sep-Nov 2010 7.8 7.9
Dec-Feb 2011 7.3 7.8
Mar-May 2011 7.1 7.8
Jun-Aug 2011 7.5 8.2
Sep-Nov 2011 6.7 8.5
Dec-Feb 2012 6.6 8.3
Mar-May 2012 6.9 8.1
Jun-Aug 2012 8.2 7.9
Sep-Nov 2012 7.8 7.8
Dec-Feb 2013 8.1 8.0
Mar-May 2013 7.7 7.8
Jun-Aug 2013 7.4 7.7
Sep-Nov 2013 7.3 7.2
Dec-Feb 2014 7.6 6.9
Mar-May 2014 6.6 6.4
Jun-Aug 2014 6.3 6.0
Sep-Nov 2014 5.9 5.9
Dec-Feb 2015 6.0 5.6
Mar-May 2015 6.2 5.6
Jun-Aug 2015 6.0 5.4
Sep-Nov 2015 6.0 5.1
Dec-Feb 2016 6.3 5.1
Mar-May 2016 5.7 4.9
Jun-Aug 2016 5.4 5.0
Sep-Nov 2016 5.8 4.8
Dec-Feb 2017 5.2 4.6
Mar-May 2017 5.1 4.4
Jun-Aug 2017 4.6 4.3
Sep-Nov 2017 4.0 4.3
Dec-Feb 2018 3.4 4.2
Mar-May 2018 3.4 4.2
Jun-Aug 2018 4.0 4.0
Sep-Nov 2018 3.5 4.0
Dec-Feb 2019 3.0 3.9
Mar-May 2019 3.1 3.8
Jun-Aug 2019 2.9 3.9
Sep-Nov 2019 2.3 3.8
Dec-Feb 2020 2.5 4.0
Mar-May 2020 2.8 4.1
Jun-Aug 2020 3.5 4.6
Sep-Nov 2020 3.3 5.1
Dec-Feb 2021 4.2 5.1
Mar-May 2021 4.2 4.9
Jun-Aug 2021 4.4 4.4
Sep-Nov 2021 3.6 4.1
Dec-Feb 2022 3.0 3.8
Mar-May 2022 2.6 3.8
Jun-Aug 2022 3.0 3.5
Sep-Nov 2022 2.8 3.7
Dec-Feb 2023 2.4 3.8
Mar-May 2023 2.5 4.0
Jun-Aug 2023 2.3 NA


Figure 1 shows the unemployment rates for NI and the UK over the last 15 years. During this period, the UK unemployment rate peaked at 8.5% in late-2011 while the NI unemployment rate peaked at 8.2% in mid-2012. Following these peaks, both unemployment rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019, when a low point was recorded for NI at 2.3%. The UK recorded a low point of 3.5% in June-August 2022. Over the most recent year to June-August 2023, the NI unemployment rate decreased by 0.7pps to 2.3%, on a par with the low point recorded in September-November 2019.

The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period June-August 2023 was estimated at 2.3%. This was:

  • a decrease of 0.2pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • a decrease of 0.7pps over the year (not statistically significant).

The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 21,000, which was:

  • down 2,000 from last quarter; and
  • down 6,000 from the same period last year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 2.3% was 1.7pps below the most recent UK rate of 4.0%.

2.2 Claimant count (experimental)

Claimant Count (experimental) consists of all people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) plus those Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Some claimants are wholly unemployed and seeking work, while others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support.

Key findings

  • Over the month to September 2023, the NI claimant count increased by 3.1% to 37,800.
  • In September 2023, 3.9% of the NI workforce were recorded on the claimant count.

Figure 2: The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate remains higher than the pre-pandemic rate

NI seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, September 2008 to September 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Undercount Rate
Sep 2008 3.3
Oct 2008 3.5
Nov 2008 3.9
Dec 2008 4.1
Jan 2009 4.3
Feb 2009 4.7
Mar 2009 5.0
Apr 2009 5.2
May 2009 5.4
Jun 2009 5.6
Jul 2009 5.7
Aug 2009 5.8
Sep 2009 5.9
Oct 2009 6.0
Nov 2009 6.0
Dec 2009 6.1
Jan 2010 6.1
Feb 2010 6.1
Mar 2010 6.1
Apr 2010 6.1
May 2010 6.1
Jun 2010 6.2
Jul 2010 6.2
Aug 2010 6.3
Sep 2010 6.4
Oct 2010 6.4
Nov 2010 6.4
Dec 2010 6.4
Jan 2011 6.4
Feb 2011 6.5
Mar 2011 6.5
Apr 2011 6.5
May 2011 6.5
Jun 2011 6.6
Jul 2011 6.7
Aug 2011 6.7
Sep 2011 6.7
Oct 2011 6.7
Nov 2011 6.7
Dec 2011 6.7
Jan 2012 6.9
Feb 2012 6.9
Mar 2012 6.9
Apr 2012 7.0
May 2012 7.0
Jun 2012 7.1
Jul 2012 7.2
Aug 2012 7.1
Sep 2012 7.2
Oct 2012 7.2
Nov 2012 7.2
Dec 2012 7.3
Jan 2013 7.2
Feb 2013 7.2
Mar 2013 7.2
Apr 2013 7.2
May 2013 7.1
Jun 2013 7.0
Jul 2013 7.0
Aug 2013 7.0
Sep 2013 6.9
Oct 2013 6.8
Nov 2013 6.7
Dec 2013 6.6
Jan 2014 6.5
Feb 2014 6.4
Mar 2014 6.3
Apr 2014 6.2
May 2014 6.1
Jun 2014 6.0
Jul 2014 5.8
Aug 2014 5.8
Sep 2014 5.8
Oct 2014 5.7
Nov 2014 5.6
Dec 2014 5.5
Jan 2015 5.4
Feb 2015 5.2
Mar 2015 5.0
Apr 2015 4.9
May 2015 4.8
Jun 2015 4.8
Jul 2015 4.7
Aug 2015 4.6
Sep 2015 4.5
Oct 2015 4.4
Nov 2015 4.4
Dec 2015 4.3
Jan 2016 4.2
Feb 2016 4.2
Mar 2016 4.2
Apr 2016 4.1
May 2016 4.0
Jun 2016 4.0
Jul 2016 3.9
Aug 2016 3.8
Sep 2016 3.8
Oct 2016 3.7
Nov 2016 3.6
Dec 2016 3.6
Jan 2017 3.5
Feb 2017 3.5
Mar 2017 3.4
Apr 2017 3.4
May 2017 3.4
Jun 2017 3.3
Jul 2017 3.3
Aug 2017 3.3
Sep 2017 3.2
Oct 2017 3.2
Nov 2017 3.1
Dec 2017 3.2
Jan 2018 3.1
Feb 2018 3.2
Mar 2018 3.1
Apr 2018 3.1
May 2018 3.1
Jun 2018 3.1
Jul 2018 3.0
Aug 2018 3.0
Sep 2018 3.1
Oct 2018 3.1
Nov 2018 3.2
Dec 2018 3.2
Jan 2019 3.1
Feb 2019 3.1
Mar 2019 3.1
Apr 2019 3.1
May 2019 3.1
Jun 2019 3.1
Jul 2019 3.1
Aug 2019 3.0
Sep 2019 3.1
Oct 2019 3.2
Nov 2019 3.2
Dec 2019 3.2
Jan 2020 3.0
Feb 2020 3.0
Mar 2020 3.0
Apr 2020 5.7
May 2020 6.5
Jun 2020 6.3
Jul 2020 6.3
Aug 2020 6.3
Sep 2020 6.1
Oct 2020 6.0
Nov 2020 6.0
Dec 2020 5.9
Jan 2021 5.9
Feb 2021 6.1
Mar 2021 6.0
Apr 2021 6.0
May 2021 5.7
Jun 2021 5.4
Jul 2021 5.3
Aug 2021 5.1
Sep 2021 5.0
Oct 2021 4.9
Nov 2021 4.6
Dec 2021 4.4
Jan 2022 4.1
Feb 2022 4.0
Mar 2022 3.9
Apr 2022 3.8
May 2022 3.7
Jun 2022 3.7
Jul 2022 3.7
Aug 2022 3.6
Sep 2022 3.7
Oct 2022 3.7
Nov 2022 3.7
Dec 2022 3.7
Jan 2023 3.7
Feb 2023 3.6
Mar 2023 3.7
Apr 2023 3.8
May 2023 3.7
Jun 2023 3.7
Jul 2023 3.8
Aug 2023 3.8
Sep 2023 3.9


In September 2023, 37,800 people were recorded on the NI Claimant Count. This is 41.1% less than the recent peak in May 2020 and 26.5% more than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020. The increases in the claimant count between March 2020 and May 2020 can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced due to COVID, resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold.

The NI seasonally adjusted claimant count was 37,800 (3.9% of the workforce) in September 2023, representing:

  • an increase of 1,100 (3.1%) over the month
  • an increase of 2,300 (6.4%) over the year, and
  • an increase of 7,900 (26.5%) since March 2020.

Changes by sex:

  • an increase of 1.6% in males and an increase of 5.2% in females over the month, and
  • a decrease of 1.5% in males and an increase of 18.9% in females over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 1.3% over the month to 1,561,600 (4.0% of the workforce).
  • The UK count is 42.1% below the recent peak in August 2020 and 27.0% above the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

2.3 Redundancies

Redundancies: Companies must inform the Department of (a) impending redundancies of 20 or more employees and (b) subsequent confirmed redundancies. Since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Key findings

  • 420 redundancies were confirmed in September 2023, taking the annual total to 1,810, which was 64.0% more than the previous year (1,100).
  • There were 170 proposed redundancies in September 2023, taking the annual total to 4,390, which was over three times more than the previous year (1,410).

Figure 3: Latest twelve month total of proposed redundancies over three times previous year; confirmed redundancies remain below long-term trend

NI confirmed and proposed redundancies, Annual totals, Oct 2007-Sep 2008 to Oct 2022-Sep 2023
Chart
Table
Year Proposed Confirmed
2008 2,880 1,800
2009 6,380 5,100
2010 3,070 2,650
2011 2,180 1,760
2012 4,290 2,290
2013 2,400 3,260
2014 3,200 2,030
2015 3,610 1,870
2016 5,500 3,490
2017 2,360 1,930
2018 3,790 2,900
2019 4,680 3,130
2020 8,860 2,900
2021 4,310 4,730
2022 1,410 1,100
2023 4,390 1,810


Redundancy notification data generally shows a high degree of correlation between proposed and confirmed redundancies when grouped by year. The graph above shows that, generally the number of proposed redundancies is higher than confirmed redundancies indicating that not all proposed redundancies take place.

This month’s 170 proposed redundancies take the latest rolling twelve-month total to 4,390. This is the second-highest rolling twelve-month total since August 2021 and is similar to the levels seen before the pandemic.

The September 2023 total of confirmed redundancies (420) was seven times the monthly average seen in 2022 (60) and equals the highest monthly total since December 2020. Whilst the rolling twelve-month total for the most recent period (1,810) remains below the long term trend, it has now been above 1,000 for the last seven months and equals the highest total since March 2022.

Confirmed redundancies

During September 2023, the Department was notified of:

  • 420 confirmed redundancies, seven times the monthly average (60) during 2022.

Over the latest twelve month period there were:

  • 1,810 confirmed redundancies, which was 64.0% more than the previous year (1,100).
  • 470 confirmed redundancies (26.0%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 330 confirmed redundancies (18.3%) in the manufacturing sector.
  • 290 confirmed redundancies (15.8%) in the transportation and storage sector.

Proposed redundancies

During September 2023, the Department was notified of:

  • 170 proposed redundancies.

Over the last twelve months, to the end of September 2023, there were:

  • 4,390 proposed redundancies, which was over three times the figure for the previous year (1,410).
  • 1,240 proposed redundancies (28.1%) in the administrative and support service activities sector.
  • 740 proposed redundancies (16.7%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 510 proposed redundancies (11.6%) in the transportation and storage sector.


3. Employment

3.1 LFS employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The NI employment rate for June-August 2023 was unchanged over the quarter and increased over the year to 72.0%.
  • The most recent UK employment rate for March-May 2023 was estimated at 76.0%.

Figure 4: Similar trend in NI and UK employment rates over the last 15 years

Seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64), Jun-Aug 2008 to Jun-Aug 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Jun-Aug 2008 68.4 72.6
Sep-Nov 2008 67.4 72.3
Dec-Feb 2009 65.4 71.9
Mar-May 2009 63.8 71.0
Jun-Aug 2009 64.1 70.7
Sep-Nov 2009 65.5 70.6
Dec-Feb 2010 66.2 70.3
Mar-May 2010 66.0 70.4
Jun-Aug 2010 66.4 70.6
Sep-Nov 2010 65.2 70.3
Dec-Feb 2011 66.6 70.6
Mar-May 2011 67.9 70.5
Jun-Aug 2011 67.3 70.2
Sep-Nov 2011 67.8 70.1
Dec-Feb 2012 67.7 70.3
Mar-May 2012 67.5 70.7
Jun-Aug 2012 66.7 71.2
Sep-Nov 2012 67.2 71.3
Dec-Feb 2013 66.1 71.2
Mar-May 2013 66.6 71.2
Jun-Aug 2013 66.6 71.5
Sep-Nov 2013 67.4 72.0
Dec-Feb 2014 67.5 72.4
Mar-May 2014 68.1 72.9
Jun-Aug 2014 68.2 73.0
Sep-Nov 2014 67.8 73.0
Dec-Feb 2015 68.4 73.4
Mar-May 2015 67.7 73.3
Jun-Aug 2015 67.9 73.6
Sep-Nov 2015 68.8 74.0
Dec-Feb 2016 68.8 74.1
Mar-May 2016 69.0 74.4
Jun-Aug 2016 70.1 74.5
Sep-Nov 2016 69.2 74.4
Dec-Feb 2017 68.7 74.6
Mar-May 2017 68.8 74.9
Jun-Aug 2017 68.4 75.1
Sep-Nov 2017 69.0 75.3
Dec-Feb 2018 69.4 75.4
Mar-May 2018 70.0 75.6
Jun-Aug 2018 69.8 75.6
Sep-Nov 2018 69.8 75.8
Dec-Feb 2019 71.2 76.1
Mar-May 2019 71.7 76.0
Jun-Aug 2019 71.5 75.9
Sep-Nov 2019 72.6 76.3
Dec-Feb 2020 72.5 76.6
Mar-May 2020 70.6 75.9
Jun-Aug 2020 69.9 75.3
Sep-Nov 2020 69.1 74.9
Dec-Feb 2021 67.4 74.7
Mar-May 2021 67.4 74.8
Jun-Aug 2021 69.0 75.2
Sep-Nov 2021 68.0 75.4
Dec-Feb 2022 69.3 75.5
Mar-May 2022 70.1 75.9
Jun-Aug 2022 69.9 75.5
Sep-Nov 2022 71.3 75.6
Dec-Feb 2023 71.9 75.8
Mar-May 2023 72.0 76.0
Jun-Aug 2023 72.0


Figure 4 shows that, over the last 15 years, the NI employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in NI between 2008 and 2009 (by over 4pps) was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. Similarly, the fall between 2019 and 2021 was steeper for NI than the UK as a whole, following peak rates recorded for both towards the end of 2019. For the most recent period, the NI employment rate was 0.5pps below the pre-pandemic rate of 72.5% recorded in December-February 2020.

The most recent NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period June-August 2023 was estimated at 72.0%. This was:

  • unchanged over the quarter; and
  • an increase of 2.1pps over the year (not statistically significant);

The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 871,000, which was:

  • down 5,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 20,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) included:

  • the male employment rate (75.9%) increased by 2.5pps over the year; and
  • the female employment rate (68.2%) increased by 1.6pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 72.0% was 4.0pps below the most recent UK rate of 76.0%.

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Self-employment:

  • In June-August 2023, there were 105,000 self-employed, 5,000 more than a year ago, and 31,000 lower (22.8%) than the pre-pandemic figure in December-February 2020.
  • The proportion who were self-employed (12.0%) remains below the pre-pandemic proportion (15.5% recorded in December-February 2020).

Employment by Age:

  • In June-August 2023, those aged 25 to 34 had the highest employment rate (81.6%), whilst those aged 16 to 24 had the lowest (56.9%). These rates are similar to the pre-pandemic rates in December-February 2020 (83.0% and 54.9% respectively).

3.2 Total weekly hours

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Key findings

  • The total number of weekly hours worked in June-August 2023 was estimated at 27.7 million hours per week.
  • This was a decrease of 3.1% on the previous quarter and an increase of 3.9% on the same period last year.

Figure 5: Hours worked similar to pre-pandemic levels

Total weekly hours worked (Age 16 and over), Jun-Aug 2008 to Jun-Aug 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Total weekly hours
Jun-Aug 2008 26.7
Sep-Nov 2008 27.8
Dec-Feb 2009 24.8
Mar-May 2009 25.3
Jun-Aug 2009 24.2
Sep-Nov 2009 26.0
Dec-Feb 2010 25.3
Mar-May 2010 26.0
Jun-Aug 2010 24.6
Sep-Nov 2010 26.2
Dec-Feb 2011 25.3
Mar-May 2011 26.4
Jun-Aug 2011 25.1
Sep-Nov 2011 26.9
Dec-Feb 2012 25.6
Mar-May 2012 26.6
Jun-Aug 2012 25.7
Sep-Nov 2012 27.5
Dec-Feb 2013 25.5
Mar-May 2013 26.7
Jun-Aug 2013 26.0
Sep-Nov 2013 27.3
Dec-Feb 2014 26.3
Mar-May 2014 27.7
Jun-Aug 2014 26.7
Sep-Nov 2014 27.9
Dec-Feb 2015 27.5
Mar-May 2015 27.0
Jun-Aug 2015 25.8
Sep-Nov 2015 28.1
Dec-Feb 2016 26.4
Mar-May 2016 27.3
Jun-Aug 2016 26.6
Sep-Nov 2016 27.9
Dec-Feb 2017 27.1
Mar-May 2017 27.6
Jun-Aug 2017 26.6
Sep-Nov 2017 28.6
Dec-Feb 2018 28.0
Mar-May 2018 28.6
Jun-Aug 2018 27.9
Sep-Nov 2018 28.7
Dec-Feb 2019 28.6
Mar-May 2019 29.6
Jun-Aug 2019 28.7
Sep-Nov 2019 30.2
Dec-Feb 2020 28.7
Mar-May 2020 23.3
Jun-Aug 2020 24.8
Sep-Nov 2020 26.6
Dec-Feb 2021 24.2
Mar-May 2021 25.4
Jun-Aug 2021 26.4
Sep-Nov 2021 27.4
Dec-Feb 2022 26.3
Mar-May 2022 28.0
Jun-Aug 2022 26.7
Sep-Nov 2022 28.5
Dec-Feb 2023 27.8
Mar-May 2023 28.6
Jun-Aug 2023 27.7


Figure 5 illustrates that, like many labour market indicators, total weekly hours worked shows a seasonal pattern. Outside of these seasonal variations, a trend of increasing weekly hours worked can be seen between 2009 and the end of 2019, prior to a sharp fall between December-February 2020 and March-May 2020. From early-2021 onwards, the increasing trend has returned, and at a steeper rate than before the pandemic. Hours worked in June-August 2023 were 8.0% below the peak of 30.2 million hours in September-November 2019.

The total number of weekly hours worked in NI in June-August 2023 was estimated at 27.7 million hours, this was:

  • a decrease of 0.9 million hours (3.1%) on the previous quarter;
  • an increase of 1.0 million hours (3.9%) from the same period last year (not statistically significant); and
  • 1.0 million hours, or 3.3%, below the pre-pandemic (December-February 2020) figure.

The average number of weekly hours worked in June-August 2023 was estimated at 36.0 hours for those in full-time employment, and at 16.4 hours for those in part-time employment (for main jobs only, any second jobs are excluded). By sex:

  • for those in full-time employment, the average weekly hours worked for males was 38.0 hours, whereas for females it was 32.9 hours.
  • for those in part-time employment, the average weekly hours worked for males was 17.7 hours, whereas for females it was 16.0 hours.

3.3 Employees (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Payrolled employee counts (experimental) from the HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include those who are self-employed. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. As employees who were “furloughed” as part of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme programme should still have had their payments reported through this system, they should feature in these data.

Key findings

  • The number of payrolled employees in NI increased by 0.3% over the month and increased by 1.7% over the year to September 2023.
  • In the UK, the number of payrolled employees was unchanged over the month and increased by 1.2% over the year to September 2023.

Figure 6: Number of payrolled employees increased over the month

NI payrolled employees (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to September 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland
Jul 2014 674,091
Aug 2014 675,764
Sep 2014 676,921
Oct 2014 678,040
Nov 2014 679,514
Dec 2014 679,579
Jan 2015 684,251
Feb 2015 686,010
Mar 2015 687,703
Apr 2015 690,546
May 2015 691,443
Jun 2015 693,785
Jul 2015 695,317
Aug 2015 696,839
Sep 2015 699,452
Oct 2015 699,852
Nov 2015 700,574
Dec 2015 700,729
Jan 2016 702,175
Feb 2016 702,582
Mar 2016 703,833
Apr 2016 703,931
May 2016 704,685
Jun 2016 704,769
Jul 2016 705,255
Aug 2016 706,264
Sep 2016 707,904
Oct 2016 709,100
Nov 2016 711,426
Dec 2016 712,933
Jan 2017 711,469
Feb 2017 713,106
Mar 2017 714,347
Apr 2017 715,991
May 2017 717,520
Jun 2017 718,953
Jul 2017 719,408
Aug 2017 721,512
Sep 2017 723,043
Oct 2017 724,215
Nov 2017 725,276
Dec 2017 729,161
Jan 2018 728,411
Feb 2018 729,799
Mar 2018 730,287
Apr 2018 732,100
May 2018 733,124
Jun 2018 733,878
Jul 2018 735,005
Aug 2018 736,625
Sep 2018 738,056
Oct 2018 739,913
Nov 2018 740,535
Dec 2018 741,828
Jan 2019 742,686
Feb 2019 743,830
Mar 2019 745,134
Apr 2019 746,736
May 2019 746,610
Jun 2019 745,526
Jul 2019 747,761
Aug 2019 747,887
Sep 2019 748,469
Oct 2019 748,979
Nov 2019 750,563
Dec 2019 750,521
Jan 2020 752,313
Feb 2020 753,555
Mar 2020 753,779
Apr 2020 743,214
May 2020 742,268
Jun 2020 741,724
Jul 2020 742,942
Aug 2020 738,106
Sep 2020 738,662
Oct 2020 737,906
Nov 2020 736,391
Dec 2020 736,810
Jan 2021 738,779
Feb 2021 738,904
Mar 2021 740,471
Apr 2021 742,196
May 2021 748,364
Jun 2021 755,509
Jul 2021 761,144
Aug 2021 760,465
Sep 2021 761,721
Oct 2021 762,969
Nov 2021 765,523
Dec 2021 767,944
Jan 2022 769,969
Feb 2022 770,733
Mar 2022 772,886
Apr 2022 774,990
May 2022 776,212
Jun 2022 776,257
Jul 2022 778,228
Aug 2022 780,963
Sep 2022 780,567
Oct 2022 781,774
Nov 2022 782,946
Dec 2022 784,485
Jan 2023 784,307
Feb 2023 785,375
Mar 2023 789,188
Apr 2023 787,998
May 2023 788,483
Jun 2023 789,137
Jul 2023 789,887
Aug 2023 791,591
Sep 2023 793,669


Between 2014 and 2020, the number of payrolled employees had generally been increasing each month, peaking at around 754,000 in March 2020. This was followed by a sharp decrease of almost 11,000 employees (1.4%) to April 2020. Employee numbers then remained at a similar level until April 2021.

Between April 2021 and March 2023, the trend in the number of payrolled employees was generally upward. Since then, the growth in numbers has slowed, but the most recent increase has taken employee numbers to the highest on record once again.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • 793,700 people were payrolled employees in September 2023, a 0.3% increase from the previous month and a 1.7% increase over the year.
  • in the UK, there were 30,122,900 payrolled employees in September 2023, no change from the previous month and a 1.2% increase over the year.
  • all regions of the UK increased over the year to September 2023, where changes ranged from an increase of 0.8% in Yorkshire and the Humber to an increase of 1.7% in Northern Ireland.
  • between March 2020 and September 2023, all regions of the UK recorded an increase in payrolled employees (3.9% overall). Northern Ireland recorded the largest increase (5.3%) while Scotland recorded the lowest (2.8%).

3.4 Earnings (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Median measures the amount earned by the average employee, i.e. the level of earnings at which half the population are above and half the population are below.

Key findings

  • Median monthly pay in NI was unchanged over the month at £2,097 in September 2023 and increased by 6.7% (£132) over the year.
  • UK median monthly pay decreased by 0.7% (£16) over the month to £2,264 in September 2023 and increased by 5.7% (£123) over the year.

Figure 7: Median monthly pay was unchanged over the month in NI and decreased over the month in the UK

Median Monthly Pay (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to September 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland UK
Jul 2014 1490 1598
Aug 2014 1488 1601
Sep 2014 1488 1601
Oct 2014 1494 1605
Nov 2014 1498 1608
Dec 2014 1514 1617
Jan 2015 1500 1620
Feb 2015 1494 1620
Mar 2015 1501 1618
Apr 2015 1500 1614
May 2015 1498 1615
Jun 2015 1492 1616
Jul 2015 1493 1619
Aug 2015 1488 1616
Sep 2015 1494 1618
Oct 2015 1496 1626
Nov 2015 1494 1630
Dec 2015 1497 1631
Jan 2016 1502 1638
Feb 2016 1508 1640
Mar 2016 1516 1646
Apr 2016 1516 1652
May 2016 1514 1652
Jun 2016 1516 1654
Jul 2016 1520 1659
Aug 2016 1526 1659
Sep 2016 1527 1664
Oct 2016 1523 1663
Nov 2016 1530 1666
Dec 2016 1528 1668
Jan 2017 1533 1668
Feb 2017 1535 1677
Mar 2017 1546 1686
Apr 2017 1542 1689
May 2017 1544 1691
Jun 2017 1556 1694
Jul 2017 1555 1693
Aug 2017 1561 1699
Sep 2017 1563 1704
Oct 2017 1565 1706
Nov 2017 1572 1713
Dec 2017 1576 1721
Jan 2018 1570 1724
Feb 2018 1590 1728
Mar 2018 1586 1731
Apr 2018 1592 1730
May 2018 1604 1750
Jun 2018 1613 1755
Jul 2018 1612 1751
Aug 2018 1619 1771
Sep 2018 1620 1761
Oct 2018 1631 1767
Nov 2018 1635 1779
Dec 2018 1632 1772
Jan 2019 1647 1782
Feb 2019 1688 1791
Mar 2019 1660 1801
Apr 2019 1669 1810
May 2019 1680 1817
Jun 2019 1678 1812
Jul 2019 1681 1819
Aug 2019 1682 1824
Sep 2019 1685 1819
Oct 2019 1692 1825
Nov 2019 1687 1831
Dec 2019 1672 1836
Jan 2020 1702 1850
Feb 2020 1710 1861
Mar 2020 1743 1847
Apr 2020 1655 1793
May 2020 1665 1800
Jun 2020 1716 1828
Jul 2020 1742 1858
Aug 2020 1748 1880
Sep 2020 1768 1897
Oct 2020 1778 1912
Nov 2020 1777 1914
Dec 2020 1784 1924
Jan 2021 1783 1928
Feb 2021 1792 1942
Mar 2021 1797 1951
Apr 2021 1813 1965
May 2021 1808 1966
Jun 2021 1834 1975
Jul 2021 1879 1978
Aug 2021 1822 1986
Sep 2021 1849 2003
Oct 2021 1856 2011
Nov 2021 1853 2017
Dec 2021 1904 2035
Jan 2022 1934 2048
Feb 2022 1915 2054
Mar 2022 1931 2078
Apr 2022 1932 2079
May 2022 1944 2090
Jun 2022 1955 2102
Jul 2022 1957 2108
Aug 2022 1974 2118
Sep 2022 1965 2141
Oct 2022 1980 2150
Nov 2022 2006 2193
Dec 2022 2012 2189
Jan 2023 2035 2194
Feb 2023 2051 2207
Mar 2023 2115 2218
Apr 2023 2056 2231
May 2023 2081 2263
Jun 2023 2100 2304
Jul 2023 2089 2268
Aug 2023 2096 2280
Sep 2023 2097 2264


Median employee pay in NI and the UK increased overall between mid-2015 and early 2020. In NI, a sharp increase of 1.9% in median pay was recorded between February and March 2020, followed by a decrease of 5.0% between March and April 2020. The UK also saw a decrease between March and April 2020 of 2.9%. These monthly decreases coincided with decreases in the number of paid employees recorded in April 2020.

From April 2020, median employee pay has shown an upward trend, however in recent months some volatility has been seen in the NI results. An increase of 3.1% was recorded in March 2023, followed by a decrease of 2.8% in April 2023. These changes were driven by a backdated local pay award paid in March 2023, which caused a significantly large increase (29.4%) in March 2023 and significantly large decrease (22.7%) in April 2023 in Health and social work sector earnings. Whilst earnings have been generally increasing since April, the most recent month was still below the peak recorded in March 2023. The latest earnings (£2,097) are now 20.3% higher than the pre-pandemic level recorded in March 2020 (£1,743).

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • NI had a median monthly pay of £2,097 in September 2023, which was unchanged from the previous month and an increase of 6.7% from September 2022.
  • UK had a median monthly pay of £2,264 in September 2023, which was a decrease of 0.7% on the previous month and an increase of 5.7% from September 2022.
  • NI had the second largest annual increase of the 12 UK regions, and has the second lowest median monthly pay in the UK. London had the highest median pay (£2,706).
  • Since March 2020, earnings in NI have increased by 20.3%, 2.3pps lower than the increase in the UK (22.6%) and the lowest of all the UK regions.


4. Economic inactivity

4.1 LFS Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The economic inactivity rate increased over the quarter and decreased over the year to 26.4%.
  • The most recent UK economic inactivity rate for March-May 2023 was estimated at 20.8%.

Figure 8: NI economic inactivity consistently above UK average

Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64), Jun-Aug 2008 to Jun-Aug 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Jun-Aug 2008 28.6 23.0
Sep-Nov 2008 29.6 22.9
Dec-Feb 2009 30.5 22.8
Mar-May 2009 31.8 23.0
Jun-Aug 2009 31.1 23.2
Sep-Nov 2009 29.7 23.4
Dec-Feb 2010 29.1 23.6
Mar-May 2010 28.9 23.4
Jun-Aug 2010 28.6 23.3
Sep-Nov 2010 29.1 23.5
Dec-Feb 2011 28.1 23.3
Mar-May 2011 26.8 23.4
Jun-Aug 2011 27.0 23.4
Sep-Nov 2011 27.2 23.2
Dec-Feb 2012 27.4 23.2
Mar-May 2012 27.4 23.0
Jun-Aug 2012 27.2 22.6
Sep-Nov 2012 27.0 22.5
Dec-Feb 2013 27.9 22.5
Mar-May 2013 27.7 22.6
Jun-Aug 2013 27.9 22.4
Sep-Nov 2013 27.1 22.3
Dec-Feb 2014 26.8 22.1
Mar-May 2014 26.9 22.0
Jun-Aug 2014 27.1 22.2
Sep-Nov 2014 27.8 22.3
Dec-Feb 2015 27.0 22.1
Mar-May 2015 27.7 22.2
Jun-Aug 2015 27.6 22.1
Sep-Nov 2015 26.6 21.9
Dec-Feb 2016 26.4 21.8
Mar-May 2016 26.7 21.7
Jun-Aug 2016 25.7 21.5
Sep-Nov 2016 26.4 21.7
Dec-Feb 2017 27.4 21.6
Mar-May 2017 27.4 21.5
Jun-Aug 2017 28.2 21.4
Sep-Nov 2017 28.0 21.2
Dec-Feb 2018 28.1 21.2
Mar-May 2018 27.4 21.0
Jun-Aug 2018 27.2 21.2
Sep-Nov 2018 27.5 21.0
Dec-Feb 2019 26.6 20.7
Mar-May 2019 25.9 20.9
Jun-Aug 2019 26.4 21.0
Sep-Nov 2019 25.7 20.6
Dec-Feb 2020 25.6 20.2
Mar-May 2020 27.4 20.8
Jun-Aug 2020 27.4 21.0
Sep-Nov 2020 28.4 21.0
Dec-Feb 2021 29.7 21.2
Mar-May 2021 29.6 21.4
Jun-Aug 2021 27.7 21.2
Sep-Nov 2021 29.4 21.3
Dec-Feb 2022 28.4 21.5
Mar-May 2022 28.0 21.1
Jun-Aug 2022 27.8 21.7
Sep-Nov 2022 26.6 21.5
Dec-Feb 2023 26.2 21.1
Mar-May 2023 26.1 20.8
Jun-Aug 2023 26.4


Figure 8 shows that, over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in NI has been consistently higher than the UK average with more variability in economic inactivity in NI than the UK. Economic inactivity in NI peaked during this time-period in 2009 at almost 32%, compared to the lower peak in the UK rate of almost 24% at the beginning of 2010.

During the ten years to 2019, the trend for both the UK and NI economic inactivity rates was generally downward. From the onset of the COVID pandemic, both UK and NI economic inactivity rates increased.

The economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for June-August 2023 was estimated at 26.4%, which was:

  • an increase of 0.3pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • a decrease of 1.4pps over the year (not statistically significant).

The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 597,000, which was:

  • up 10,000 from last quarter; and
  • down 10,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) included:

  • a decrease of 2.2pps over the year in the male economic inactivity rate to 21.8%; and
  • a decrease of 0.6pps over the year in the female economic inactivity rate to 31.0%.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 26.4% was 5.6pps above the overall UK rate of 20.8%; and

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Reasons for inactivity:

  • In June-August 2023, the most common reason for economic inactivity among the working age population was ‘long-term sick’. There were 125,000 ‘long-term sick’, accounting for 41.0% of the total economically inactive (aged 16 to 64), or 10.6% of the working age population. This was 5,000 (+4.4%) higher than the same period last year and 26,000 (+25.7%) higher than the pre-pandemic figure in December-February 2020.
  • Compared to the pre-pandemic figures in December-February 2020, there has been an increase in the number of ‘long-term sick’ (+26,000) and ‘student’ (+3,000), however the totals for ‘family and home care’ (-10,000) and ‘retired’ (-4,000) have decreased.

Inactivity by Age:

  • In June-August 2023, those aged 65 and over (286,000) made up the highest proportion (48.4%) of the total economically inactive (age 16 and over), with those aged 25 to 34 (40,000) making up the lowest proportion (6.7%) across the age groups.
  • Those aged 65 and over had the highest economic inactivity rate (90.6%), whilst those aged 25 to 34 had the lowest (16.4%). These rates are similar to the pre-pandemic rates in December-February 2020 (90.0% and 14.6% respectively).


5. Further Information

General Information

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), claimant count, redundancies counts, and HMRC PAYE statistics. The LMR also contains an overview from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in March, June, September and December. More information about the data sources can be found in the LMR Supplementary Document.

Comparison between data sources

Although the broad concepts are similar across sources contained within this release, differences in reference periods, definitions, and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics. Additional information can be found in the LMR supplementary document, including comparisons between:

  • LFS unemployment and experimental claimant count
  • LFS employment and the number of paid employees from HMRC PAYE RTI
  • LFS employment and QES employee jobs
  • HMRC PAYE RTI and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
  • Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and HMRC PAYE RTI

More information is also available in the comparison of labour market data sources article by ONS.

Seasonal adjustment

All estimates discussed in this report are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar and allows comparison over months or quarters.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a sample survey. Estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability which means if we drew many samples, each would give a different result. The sampling variability of the Northern Ireland estimates can be found in Table 2.49 of the LFS monthly tables, published alongside this report on the NISRA website. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value.

Alternative release time

The NI Labour Market Report is released at 7am. This is an ‘alternative release time’ agreed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and differs from the standard 9.30am release time for the majority of statistical reports.

Labour Force Survey

Response rates

The methodology for determining the response rate for the NI LFS has been revised to follow the same methodology as that used in ONS. This allows for the comparability of the response rate against GB.

The achieved sample size for the Northern Ireland Labour Force Survey during April to June 2023 was 2,590, a decrease of -10.9% from the same period last year.

Table 1: LFS Response rates, July-September 2021 to April-June 2023

Period NI Response Rate (%) UK Response Rate (%)
July-September 2021 24.6 26.8
October-December 2021 28.2 26.6
January-March 2022 33.3 27.2
April-June 2022 43.3 27.8
July-September 2022 46.4 26.1
October-December 2022 47.4 23.6
January-March 2023 48.0 21.5
April-June 2023 47.4 19.6

Please note, response rates are updated quarterly.

LFS revisions

LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates. The population totals used for the latest LFS estimates use projected growth rates from RTI data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used for the LFS therefore does not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates etc. since June 2021 and hence levels estimates may be under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates will, however, be robust.

In June 2022, the LFS estimates were reweighted from January-March 2020 to January-March 2022 using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data. An overview of the impact of reweighting on the NI estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website. This webpage also contains the detail on two previous LFS reweightings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in October 2020 and July 2021.

LFS comparisons

Estimates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity are derived from the LFS. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates over separate three-month periods, commonly known as 3 month rolling averages. For example, estimates relating to June-August 2023 should be compared with the estimates for March-May 2023. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for May-July 2023, as the June and July data are included within both estimates. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the NI population over a three-month period, not for a single month period.

Suppression and shading

Estimates based on fewer than 3 events are suppressed to prevent disclosure. In tables, shading is used to draw attention to lower statistical quality/precision of estimates that are based on a smaller sample size. Shaded estimates still provide the best estimate of the size of a group but comparison across time or between groups with similar values should be avoided. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

Due to the small sample sizes and the effect this may have on the precision of the figures, estimates for long-term unemployment, youth unemployment and annual changes in unemployment by sex have not been included in this bulletin this month.

Claimant Count

Experimental claimant count

This measure is categorised as experimental as the statistics are in the testing phase and not yet fully developed. ONS have produced a useful Guide to Experimental Statistics, and an FAQ document explaining the difference between the previous measure and this experimental measure is available on the changes to the claimant count page.

Claimant count revisions

Seasonally adjusted estimates are revised on a regular basis. Each month the previous estimate is revised in line with the current seasonal adjustment model, giving the best estimate of change for the latest period.

Also, a seasonal adjustment review takes place once a year. Typically, the last 3 years are revised and this takes the most recent year of data into account when determining the seasonal adjustment model. These revisions affect only the seasonally adjusted data.

Claimant count undercount correction note

A number of claims across the UK to the UC element of the Claimant Count were coded to incorrect locations for data relating to December 2018 to November 2019. This has been corrected for December 2019 onwards, but previous periods remain affected. The impact of the revision on NI for December 2019 was an increase of fewer than 1,000 cases.

Percentage of workforce

The number of claimants as a percentage of workforce jobs plus claimants. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs, self-employment jobs, HM Forces, and government-supported trainees. This measure is only available at the NI level.

Redundancies

To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the NISRA website.

HMRC PAYE Real Time Information

Age breakdowns are published in January, April, July and October, and industry sector breakdowns published in February, May, August and November. Data are subject to revisions.

Further information on UK monthly pay, UK pay distribution, methodology, data source, collection, and coverage of PAYE RTI data, as well as information on imputation and revisions can be found on the Earnings and employment from PAYE page.


The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for their co-operation in agreeing to take part in the surveys and for facilitating the collection of the relevant data.


6. Contacts

For further information contact:

Labour Force Survey, Claimant Count, and Redundancies

Mark McFetridge
Email:

HMRC PAYE

Ashleigh Warwick
Email:


Web: Labour Market and Social Welfare
Twitter: NISRA

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7. Accredited Official Statistics Status

These official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for Statistics. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and are therefore labelled as accredited official statistics. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. For further information, please refer to the Office for Statistics Regulation accredited official statistics webpage.

As outlined above, our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards using the details in Section 6.

Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing or via the OSR website.