All tables associated with this report can be downloaded from the NISRA website.

1. Overview

1.1 Key points

The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in September 2022 was 780,800, a decrease of 0.1% over the month and an increase of 2.6% over the year. This was the first monthly decrease in over a year (since August 2021).

Employment section 3.3
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £1,944 in September 2022, a decrease of £31 (1.6%) over the month and an increase of £102 (5.5%) over the year. This was the largest monthly decrease in over a year (since August 2021).

Employment section 3.4
In September 2022, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 35,900 (3.8% of the workforce), which was an increase of 1.3% from the previous month’s revised figure. This was the first monthly increase recorded since February 2021. The September claimant count remains higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020 (by 20.6%).

Unemployment section 2.2
NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 150 redundancies occurred in September 2022. Over the year October 2021 to September 2022, 1,100 redundancies were confirmed, 76.7% less than in the previous 12 months. There were 190 proposed redundancies in September 2022, following low or no redundancies in July and August, taking the annual total to 1,410 (67.2% less than in the previous 12 months.)

Unemployment section 2.3
The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people age 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period June-August 2022 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 3.0%. This was an increase of 0.4 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and a decrease of 1.4pps over the year. The annual change was statistically significant.

Unemployment section 2.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Aged 16+) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) decreased by 0.1pps over the quarter and increased by 0.9pps over the year to 69.9%. Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.

Employment section 3.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16-64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased by 0.2pps over the quarter and increased by 0.1pps over the year to 27.8%. Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.

Economic inactivity section 4.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16-64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The total number of weekly hours worked in NI was estimated at 26.7million, a decrease of 4.5% on the previous quarter and an increase of 1.2% on the equivalent period last year.

Employment section 3.2

1.2 Commentary

The latest labour market release shows that, whilst the majority of indicators continue to report improvements over the year, some indicators are showing a worsening position over the short-term.

Notably all three administrative data sources point to a worsening labour market in the short term with 190 redundancies proposed in September following no or low redundancies over the summer months; the claimant count showing the first substantial increase since February 2021; and HMRC PAYE data showing the first monthly decrease in payrolled earnings, and the largest decrease in monthly earnings, in over a year.

The latest HMRC payroll data showed that payrolled employee numbers are now 3.8% above those recorded in March 2020 pre-COVID and 2.6% higher than September 2021. Payroll earnings are now 11.4% above pre-COVID level, however this is the lowest increase of all 12 UK regions.

The claimant count estimate increased over the month to September 2022 from the revised estimate for August 2022. The claimant count rate however has remained at 3.8% for the fifth consecutive month.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows a statistically significant decrease in the unemployment rate over the year to June-August 2022 to 3.0%. When compared to pre-pandemic levels in December-February 2020, the total number of hours worked in June-August 2022 was 7.0% below, whilst the employment rate was 2.5pps below. The economic inactivity rate remains 2.2pps above the pre-pandemic position and the unemployment rate is 0.5pps above the pre-pandemic period.

1.3 Things users need to know

New Labour Market Report (LMR) format

The October LMR publication marks the second release in HTML format produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP), following the first release of the new format in September. An overview of the changes can be found in the Further Information section.

Labour Market Statistics User Group 2022

The Labour Market Statistics user group took place online on Thursday 29th September 2022. All NISRA presentations are available on the User Group 2022 page of the NISRA website. Other documents relating to the meeting will be added to this page in due course.

During this session, users were provided with a demonstration of the new HTML LMR, where feedback was also sought from users. Positive feedback was received from users, who found the new format more user friendly, interactive and easier to navigate. Users also welcomed the addition of the new mini charts in the key points section of the HTML. Users were advised that previous HTML versions of the monthly LMR publication, from September 2022 onwards, will remain accessible on the Historical Reports section of the NISRA website, similar to the previous PDF version. We welcome further feedback from users on this new development (see Contacts).

1.4 Context

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI.

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 (Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page) showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.


2. Unemployment

2.1 Labour Force Survey unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The NI unemployment rate for June-August 2022 increased over the quarter and decreased over the year to 3.0%.
  • The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.5%.

Figure 1: NI unemployment rate has been below the UK since 2017

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over), Jun-Aug 2007 to Jun-Aug 2022

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Figure 1 shows unemployment rates for NI and the UK over the last 15 years. During this period, the UK rate peaked at 8.5% in late-2011 while the NI rate peaked at 8.2% in summer 2012. Following these peaks, both rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019, when the NI rate recorded a low point of 2.3%. The latest UK rate is the lowest rate since December-February 1974, whilst the NI rate remains above the low point in 2019 (prior to the pandemic).

The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period June-August 2022 was estimated at 3.0%. This was:

  • an increase of 0.4pps over the quarter (not statistically significant)
  • a decrease of 1.4pps over the year (statistically significant)

The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 26,000, which was:

  • up 4,000 from last quarter; and
  • down 12,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex:

  • the male (age 16 and over) unemployment rate (3.4%) decreased by 2.4pps over the year; and
  • the female (age 16 and over) unemployment rate (2.6%) decreased by 0.5pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 3.0% was 0.5pps below the overall UK rate of 3.5%; and
  • the third lowest of the twelve UK regions.

Long-term unemployment:

The percentage of unemployed who have been unemployed for 1 year or more (long-term) in NI was 40.6%. This was:

  • an increase of 2.6pps from the same period last year.

2.2 Claimant count (experimental)

Claimant Count (experimental) consists of all people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) plus those Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Some claimants are wholly unemployed and seeking work, while others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support.

Key findings

  • Over the month to September 2022, the NI claimant count increased by 1.3% to 35,900, which was the first increase since February 2021.
  • In September 2022, 3.8% of the NI workforce were recorded on the claimant count.

Figure 2: The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate remains higher than the pre-pandemic rate

NI seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, September 2007 to September 2022

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


In September 2022, 35,900 people were recorded on the NI Claimant Count. This is 43.9% less than the recent peak in May 2020 and 20.6% more than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020. The increases in claimant count between March 2020 and May 2020 can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced, resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold.

The NI seasonally adjusted claimant count was 35,900 (3.8% of the workforce) in September 2022, representing:

  • an increase of 500 (1.3%) over the month
  • an increase of 0.8% in males and an increase of 2.1% in females over the month
  • a decrease of 10,900 (23.3%) over the year
  • an increase of 6,100 (20.6%) since March 2020, and
  • the fifth consecutive month that the claimant count rate has remained at 3.8%.

UK regional comparison:

  • The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 1.7% over the month to 1,554,500 (3.9% of the workforce).
  • The UK count is 42.2% below the recent peak in August 2020 and 26.2% above the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

2.3 Redundancies

Redundancies: Companies must inform the Department of (a) impending redundancies of 20 or more employees and (b) subsequent confirmed redundancies. Since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Key findings

  • 150 redundancies were confirmed in September 2022, taking the annual total to 1,100, which was 76.7% less than the previous year (4,730).
  • There were 190 proposed redundancies in September 2022, taking the annual total to 1,410, which was 67.2% less than the previous year (4,310).

Figure 3: Latest twelve month totals of confirmed and proposed redundancies remain low

NI confirmed and proposed redundancies, Annual totals, Oct 2006-Sep 2007 to Oct 2021-Sep 2022


Redundancy notification data generally shows a high degree of correlation between proposed and confirmed redundancies when grouped by year. The graph above shows that, generally the number of proposed redundancies is higher than confirmed redundancies indicating that not all proposed redundancies take place.

Despite the increase in proposed redundancies in September 2022, the latest rolling twelve-month total (1,410) remains below the long-term trend, and was one of the lowest twelve-month totals in the time series (since 2000).

The rolling twelve-month total for confirmed redundancies in the most recent period (1,100) was the second-lowest total in the time series (since 2000). The monthly average of confirmed redundancies so far in 2022 was 60, which was well below the monthly average of 240 during 2021.

Confirmed redundancies

During September 2022, the Department was notified of:

  • 150 confirmed redundancies, which was the highest monthly total since December 2021.

Over the latest twelve month period there were:

  • 1,100 confirmed redundancies, which was 76.7% less than the previous year (4,730).
  • 230 confirmed redundancies (20.6%) in the financial and insurance activities sector.
  • 200 confirmed redundancies (18.3%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 200 confirmed redundancies (17.9%) in the manufacturing sector.

Proposed redundancies

During September 2022, the Department was notified of:

  • 190 proposed redundancies, following low or no redundancies in July and August.

Over the last twelve months to the end of September 2022 there were:

  • 1,410 proposed redundancies, which was 67.2% less than the previous year (4,310).
  • 300 proposed redundancies (21.2%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 220 proposed redundancies (15.7%) in the administrative and support service activities sector.
  • 140 proposed redundancies (10.0%) in the manufacturing sector.


3. Employment

3.1 LFS employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The NI employment rate for June-August 2022 decreased over the quarter and increased over the year to 69.9%.
  • The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.5%.

Figure 4: Similar trend in NI and UK employment rates over the last 15 years

Seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64), Jun-Aug 2007 to Jun-Aug 2022

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Figure 4 shows that, over the last 15 years, the NI employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in NI between 2008 and 2009 (by over 5pps) was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. Similarly, the fall between 2019 and 2021 was steeper for NI than the UK as a whole, following peak rates recorded for both towards the end of 2019. The NI rate is 2.5pps below the pre-pandemic rate in December-February 2020 (72.5%), whilst the UK rate is 1.0pps below.

The most recent NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period June-August 2022 was estimated at 69.9%. This was:

  • a decrease of 0.1pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • an increase of 0.9pps over the year (not statistically significant);

The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 851,000, which was:

  • down 4,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 15,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex included:

  • the male (aged 16 to 64) employment rate (73.4%) increased by 3.7pps over the year; and
  • the female (aged 16 to 64) employment rate (66.6%) decreased by 1.8pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 69.9% was 5.6pps less the overall UK rate of 75.5%; and
  • the lowest of the twelve UK regions.

3.2 Total weekly hours

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Key findings

  • The total number of weekly hours worked in June-August 2022 was estimated at 26.7 million hours per week.
  • This was a decrease of 4.5% on the previous quarter and an increase of 1.2% on the same period last year.

Figure 5: Hours worked has not returned to pre-pandemic levels

Total weekly hours worked (Age 16 and over), Jun-Aug 2007 to Jun-Aug 2022

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Figure 5 shows that, like many labour market indicators, total weekly hours worked shows a seasonal pattern. Outside of these seasonal variations a trend of increasing weekly hours worked can be seen between 2009 and 2020 prior to a sharp fall between September-November 2019 and March-May 2020. Following this point, whilst there has been a general increasing trend, hours worked has not recovered to the peak levels in 2019. Hours worked in June-August 2022 were 11.5% below the peak of 30.2 million hours in September-November 2019.

The total number of weekly hours worked in NI in June-August 2022 was estimated at 26.7 million hours, this was:

  • a decrease of 1.3 million hours (4.5%) on the previous quarter;
  • an increase of 0.3 million hours (1.2%) from the same period last year; and
  • 2.0 million hours, or 7.0%, below the pre-pandemic (December-February 2020) figure.

3.3 Employees (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Payrolled employee counts (experimental) from the HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include those who are self-employed. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. As employees who were “furloughed” as part of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme programme should still have had their payments reported through this system, they should feature in these data.

Key findings

  • The number of payrolled employees in NI in September 2022 was 0.1% lower than August 2022 and 2.6% higher than September 2021.
  • This is the first monthly decrease in employee numbers in over a year (since August 2021).
  • In the UK, the number of employees increased by 0.2% over the month and increased by 2.5% over the year to September.

Figure 6: Number of payrolled employees decreases for the first time in over a year

NI payrolled employees (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to September 2022

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Between 2014 and 2020 the number of payrolled employees had generally been increasing each month. Prior to COVID, payrolled employees peaked at around 752,000 in March 2020. This was followed by a sharp decrease of around 10,000 employees (1.4%) to April 2020. Employee numbers remained around that level until April 2021.

Since April 2021 there has generally been an upward trend in the number of payrolled employees, however, this month saw the second decrease during the period. The September 2022 total is now 2.6% above the level one year earlier.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • 780,800 people were payrolled employees in September 2022, a 0.1% decrease from the previous month and a 2.6% increase from September 2021.
  • in the UK, there were 29,739,700 payrolled employees at September 2022, an increase of 0.2% over the month and an increase of 2.5% over the year.
  • all regions of the UK increased over the year to September 2022, where changes ranged from a 3.8% increase in London to an increase of 1.9% for North West. NI recorded a similar increase to the UK as a whole (2.6% and 2.5% respectively).
  • between March 2020 and September 2022, all regions of the UK recorded an increase in payrolled employees (an increase of 2.6% overall). Northern Ireland recorded the largest increase (3.8%) while London and Scotland recorded the lowest (1.9%).

3.4 Earnings (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Median measures the amount earned by the average employee, i.e. the level of earnings at which half the population are above and half the population are below.

Key findings

  • Median monthly pay decreased by 1.6% (£31) over the month to September to £1,944 and was 5.5% (£102) higher than the same period last year.
  • UK median monthly pay increased by 0.7% (£14) over the month to September to £2,131 and increased by 6.3% (£126) over the year.
  • NI was the only region of the UK to record a decrease over the month to September.

Figure 7: UK median monthly pay continues on an upward trend, while NI recorded largest monthly decrease in over a year in the latest month

Median Monthly Pay (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to September 2022

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Median employee pay in NI and the UK was generally on an increasing trend between mid-2015 and early 2020. A sharp increase in median pay of 2.2% was seen between February and March 2020 in NI, followed by a decrease of 5.0% in NI and 2.9% in the UK between March and April 2020. This coincided with decreases in the number of paid employees between March and April.

From April 2020, median employee pay has shown an upward trend, however in recent months some volatility has been seen in the NI results, and September 2022 saw the largest monthly decrease in over a year (since August 2021). Latest earnings (£1,944) remain 11.4% higher than the pre-pandemic level in March 2020 (£1,745).

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • NI had a median monthly pay of £1,944 in September 2022, which was a decrease of 1.6% on the previous month and an increase of 5.5% from September 2021.
  • UK had a median monthly pay of £2,131 in September 2022, which was an increase of 0.7% on the previous month and an increase of 6.3% from September 2021.
  • NI was the only UK region to record a decrease over the month and had the 2nd smallest annual increase of the 12 regions. It has the lowest median earnings in the UK, while London has the highest median pay (£2,574).
  • Since March 2020, earnings in NI have increased by 11.4%, lowest of all the UK regions, and 4pps lower than the UK, which increased by 15.4%.


4. Economic inactivity

4.1 LFS Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The economic inactivity rate decreased over the quarter and increased over the year to 27.8%.
  • The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21.7%.

Figure 8: NI economic inactivity consistently above UK average

Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64), Jun-Aug 2007 to Jun-Aug 2022

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Figure 8 shows that, over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in NI has been consistently higher than the UK average. Economic inactivity in NI peaked during this time-period in 2009 at almost 32%, compared to the peak in the UK rate of almost 24% at the beginning of 2010.

During the ten years to 2019, both the UK and NI economic inactivity rates were generally showing a downward trend, albeit the rate for NI has shown more variability than the UK. Whilst the NI rate has continued to show more variability than the UK since the onset of the COVID pandemic, there has been a general increasing trend for both. The NI and UK rates remain higher than the pre-pandemic period (December-February 2020), by 2.2pps and 1.4pps respectively.

The economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for June-August 2022 was estimated at 27.8%, which was:

  • a decrease of 0.2pps over the quarter (not statistically significant);
  • an increase of 0.1pps over the year (not statistically significant)

The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 607,000, which was:

  • up 3,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 2,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex included:

  • the male (aged 16 to 64) economic inactivity rate (23.9%) decreased by 2.0pps over the year; and
  • the female (aged 16 to 64) economic inactivity rate (31.6%) increased by 2.2pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 27.8% was 6.2pps above the overall UK rate of 21.7%; and
  • the highest of the twelve UK regions.


5. Further Information

General Information

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), claimant count, redundancies counts, and HMRC PAYE statistics. The LMR also contains an overview from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in March, June, September and December. More information about the data sources can be found in the LMR Supplementary Document.

New Labour Market Report (LMR) format

The September 2022 LMR publication marked the first release in HTML format, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP). The content and format of the report and monthly tables have changed to make them more user friendly and interactive, enhancing accessibility, and increasing automation in their production. As the tables have changed, a mapping document has been created showing the relationship between the old and new tables.

In addition, the LMR, data tables and supplementary documents are now available on one webpage. Individual data source pages contain links directing users to the most recent data on the LMR publication page.

We welcome feedback from users on this new development (see Contacts).

Comparison between data sources

Although the broad concepts are similar across sources contained within this release, differences in reference periods, definitions, and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics. Additional information can be found in the LMR supplementary document, including:

  • LFS unemployment and experimental claimant count
  • LFS employment and the number of paid employees from HMRC PAYE RTI
  • LFS employment and QES employee jobs
  • HMRC PAYE RTI and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
  • Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and HMRC PAYE RTI

More information is also available in the comparison of labour market data sources article by ONS.

Seasonal adjustment

All estimates discussed in this report are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar and allows comparison over months or quarters.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a sample survey. Estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability which means if we drew many samples, each would give a different result. Table 1 shows the sampling variability of the estimates, and quarterly and annual changes using 95% confidence intervals. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value.

Table 1: Sampling variability of labour market estimates

Labour market status Estimate Confidence interval: estimate Change over quarter Confidence interval: quarterly change Change over year Confidence interval: annual change Confidence interval around change
Unemployment (age 16 and over) 26,000 +/- 6,000 4,000 +/- 5,000 -12,000 +/- 9,000 +/- 9,000
Employment (age 16 and over) 851,000 +/- 20,000 -4,000 +/- 18,000 15,000 +/- 27,000 +/- 29,000
Economically inactive (age 16 and over) 607,000 +/- 19,000 3,000 +/- 17,000 2,000 +/- 26,000 +/- 28,000
Unemployment rate (age 16 and over) 3.0% +/- 0.7pps 0.4pps +/- 0.6pps -1.4pps +/- 1.0pps +/- 1.1pps
Employment rate (aged 16 to 64) 69.9% +/- 1.6pps -0.1pps +/- 1.4pps 0.9pps +/- 2.2pps +/- 2.4pps
Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) 27.8% +/- 1.6pps -0.2pps +/- 1.4pps 0.1pps +/- 2.1pps +/- 2.3pps


Alternative release time

The NI Labour Market Report is released at 7am. This is an ‘alternative release time’ agreed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and differs from the standard 9.30am release time for the majority of statistical reports.

Labour Force Survey

Response rates

The total eligible sample for the April-June 2022 LFS consisted of 5,570 addresses (1,191 chosen at random from the Land and Property Services (LPS) list of domestic properties and 4,379 carried forward from the previous quarter). A random start, fixed interval sampling technique of the addresses, which are ordered by Council Area and Ward, is used. This ensures a proportional representation across the Council Areas in Northern Ireland.

Only private household addresses were eligible and every selected address is interviewed on five successive occasions over five quarters. This means there is an 80% sample overlap between quarters.

Table 2 is updated on a quarterly basis – additional information can be found in the supplementary document. The achieved sample size has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Table 2: Response rates, April-June 2022

Statistic Figure
Fully and partially responding 2,885
Eligible sample 5,570
Response rate (%) 51.8%

LFS revisions

LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates.

In June 2022, the LFS estimates were reweighted from January-March 2020 to January-March 2022 using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data. An overview of the impact of reweighting on the NI estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website. This paper also contains the detail on two previous LFS reweightings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in October 2020 and July 2021.

LFS comparisons

Estimates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity are derived from the LFS. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates over separate three-month periods, commonly known as 3 month rolling averages. For example, estimates relating to June-August 2022 should be compared with the estimates for March-May 2022. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for May-July 2022, as the June and July data are included within both estimates. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the NI population over a three-month period, not for a single month period.

Suppression and shading

Estimates based on fewer than 3 events are suppressed to prevent disclosure. In tables, shading is used to draw attention to lower statistical quality/precision of estimates that are based on a smaller sample size. Shaded estimates still provide the best estimate of the size of a group but comparison across time or between groups with similar values should be avoided. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

Due to the small sample sizes and the effect this has on the precision of the figures, estimates for youth unemployment have not been included in this bulletin this month.

Claimant Count

Experimental claimant count

The measure is categorised as experimental as the statistics are in the testing phase and not yet fully developed. ONS have produced a useful Guide to Experimental Statistics, and an FAQ document explaining the difference between the previous measure and this experimental measure is available on the changes to the claimant count page.

Claimant count revisions

Seasonally adjusted estimates are revised on a regular basis. Each month the previous estimate is revised in line with the current seasonal adjustment model, giving the best estimate of change for the latest period.

Claimant count undercount correction note

A number of claims across the UK to the UC element of the Claimant Count were coded to incorrect locations for data relating to December 2018 to November 2019. This has been corrected for December 2019 onwards, but previous periods remain affected. The impact of the revision on NI for December 2019 was an increase of fewer than 1,000 cases.

Percentage of workforce

The number of claimants as a percentage of workforce jobs plus claimants. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs, self-employment jobs, HM Forces, and government-supported trainees. This measure is only available at the NI level.

Redundancies

To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the NISRA website.

HMRC PAYE Real Time Information

Age breakdowns are published in January, April, July and October, and industry sector breakdowns published in February, May, August and November. Data are subject to revisions.

Further information on UK monthly pay, UK pay distribution, methodology, data source, collection, and coverage of PAYE RTI data, as well as information on imputation and revisions can be found on the Earnings and employment from PAYE page.


The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for their co-operation in agreeing to take part in the surveys and for facilitating the collection of the relevant data.


6. Contacts

For further information contact:

Labour Force Survey, Claimant Count, and Redundancies

Mark McFetridge
Email:

HMRC PAYE

Ashleigh Warwick
Email:


Web: Labour Market and Social Welfare
Twitter: NISRA

National Statistics logo

7. National Statistics Status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics were designated as National Statistics in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for statistics. A compliance check in March 2020 recommended the continued designation of the report as a National Statistic. These statistics were considered as part of a wider assessment of the UK employment and jobs statistics.

Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

  • New HTML Labour Market Report and monthly tables, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP) to enhance usability and accessibility (in line with regulations) and increase automation of production;
  • Providing more context to results by setting recent changes within context of longer term trends;
  • Removed pre-release access to enhance trustworthiness, and brought forward the publication date as a result;
  • Improved timeliness of quarterly labour force survey tables (ranging from 1 week to 3 months) by incorporating quarterly tables in the main Labour Market Report Publication;
  • Improved quality of the LFS data by boosting the sample size and improving precision around headline estimates (Please note, sample sizes decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to difficulty of collecting survey information from households, but have since returned to pre-pandemic levels);
  • Reviewed and updated quality protocols for release for LFS data;
  • Improved accessibility of labour market statistics by changing the release dates of statistics to avoid public holidays;
  • Included additional administrative sources of labour market data to provide a fuller picture of the labour market;
  • Changed the timing of release in line with change in ONS release practices in response to COVID-19 where the exemption has now been transferred to an alternative release time of 7am as agreed by the OSR.