All tables associated with this report can be downloaded from the NISRA website.

1. Overview

1.1 Key points

The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in October 2022 was 781,300, an increase of 0.2% over the month and an increase of 2.5% over the year.

Employment section 3.3
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £1,967 in October 2022, an increase of £10 (0.5%) over the month and an increase of £117 (6.3%) over the year.

Employment section 3.4
In October 2022, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 36,100 (3.8% of the workforce), which was an increase of 1.4% from the previous month’s revised figure. The October claimant count remains higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020 (by 21.1%).

Unemployment section 2.2
NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 60 redundancies occurred in October 2022, taking the annual total to 940. There were 1,290 redundancies proposed in the twelve months to October 2022. The number of confirmed redundancies in the last twelve months is the lowest in our time series (since 2000).

Unemployment section 2.3
The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people age 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period July-September 2022 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 3.0%. This was an increase of 0.3 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and a decrease of 1.3pps over the year. The annual change was statistically significant.

Unemployment section 2.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Aged 16+) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased by 0.4pps over the quarter and increased by 2.0pps over the year to 70.1%. Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.

Employment section 3.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16-64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased by 0.6pps over the quarter and decreased by 1.0pps over the year to 27.7%. Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.

Economic inactivity section 4.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16-64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The total number of weekly hours worked in NI was estimated at 26.5million, a decrease of 4.7% on the previous quarter and an increase of 1.7% on the equivalent period last year.

Employment section 3.2

1.2 Commentary

The latest labour market release shows that payroll employee numbers and earnings have both increased over the year. Measures of total employment (e.g. employment rate and hours worked), unemployment and economic inactivity continue to show improvement over the year but have not yet returned to their pre-pandemic position.

The latest HMRC payroll data showed that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.2% over the month and are 2.5% above the figure recorded in October 2021. Payroll earnings also increased over the month, by 0.5% and are 6.3% above the figure recorded in October 2021.

There were 60 redundancies confirmed to the Department in October 2022. Over the most recent twelve-month period, 1,290 redundancies were proposed and 940 were confirmed, continuing the trend of decreasing annual confirmed redundancies seen throughout 2022.

The claimant count estimate increased over the month to October 2022 from the revised estimate for September 2022. This is the second consecutive monthly increase following a trend of decreases between March 2021 and August 2022. The claimant count rate however has remained at 3.8% for the sixth consecutive month.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows a statistically significant decrease in the unemployment rate over the year to July-September 2022 to 3.0%. When compared to pre-pandemic levels in October-December 2019, the total number of hours worked in July-September 2022 was 9.0% below, whilst the employment rate was 2.3pps below. The economic inactivity rate remains 1.9pps above the pre-pandemic position and the unemployment rate is 0.6pps above the pre-pandemic period.

1.3 Things users need to know

New Labour Market Report (LMR) format

The November LMR publication marks the third release in HTML format produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP), following the first release of the new format in September. An overview of the changes can be found in the Further Information section.

LFS Occupational data

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has identified an issue with the collection of some occupational data in a number of surveys, including the Labour Force Survey (LFS). While we estimate any impacts will be small overall, this would affect the accuracy of the breakdowns in quarterly tables 2.18, 2.29 and 2.39. A decision has therefore been taken to suspend publication of these tables until this issue has been resolved. ONS are aiming to recode the occupations for January 2021 onwards over the coming months, and these will be available in spring 2023. Further details, including a list of the impacts to SOC codes, can be found on the ONS website.

1.4 Context

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI.

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 (Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page) showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.


2. Unemployment

2.1 Labour Force Survey unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The NI unemployment rate for July-September 2022 increased over the quarter and decreased over the year to 3.0%.
  • The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.6%.

Figure 1: NI unemployment rate reamains above pre-pandemic rate

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over), Jul-Sep 2007 to Jul-Sep 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Jul-Sep 2007 3.9 5.3
Oct-Dec 2007 4.2 5.2
Jan-Mar 2008 4.5 5.2
Apr-Jun 2008 3.9 5.4
Jul-Sep 2008 4.1 5.9
Oct-Dec 2008 5.2 6.4
Jan-Mar 2009 6.2 7.1
Apr-Jun 2009 6.5 7.8
Jul-Sep 2009 7.0 7.8
Oct-Dec 2009 5.9 7.8
Jan-Mar 2010 6.9 8.0
Apr-Jun 2010 6.6 7.9
Jul-Sep 2010 6.9 7.8
Oct-Dec 2010 7.9 7.9
Jan-Mar 2011 7.3 7.8
Apr-Jun 2011 7.3 7.9
Jul-Sep 2011 7.3 8.3
Oct-Dec 2011 7.0 8.4
Jan-Mar 2012 6.7 8.2
Apr-Jun 2012 7.7 8.0
Jul-Sep 2012 7.7 7.9
Oct-Dec 2012 7.6 7.8
Jan-Mar 2013 8.0 7.8
Apr-Jun 2013 7.3 7.7
Jul-Sep 2013 7.4 7.6
Oct-Dec 2013 7.3 7.2
Jan-Mar 2014 7.1 6.8
Apr-Jun 2014 6.5 6.3
Jul-Sep 2014 6.2 6.0
Oct-Dec 2014 5.8 5.7
Jan-Mar 2015 6.2 5.5
Apr-Jun 2015 6.3 5.6
Jul-Sep 2015 6.0 5.3
Oct-Dec 2015 5.9 5.1
Jan-Mar 2016 6.1 5.1
Apr-Jun 2016 5.8 4.9
Jul-Sep 2016 5.6 4.8
Oct-Dec 2016 5.4 4.7
Jan-Mar 2017 5.3 4.6
Apr-Jun 2017 5.1 4.4
Jul-Sep 2017 4.0 4.3
Oct-Dec 2017 4.1 4.4
Jan-Mar 2018 3.0 4.2
Apr-Jun 2018 3.7 4.0
Jul-Sep 2018 3.8 4.1
Oct-Dec 2018 3.8 4.0
Jan-Mar 2019 2.9 3.8
Apr-Jun 2019 3.1 3.9
Jul-Sep 2019 2.5 3.8
Oct-Dec 2019 2.4 3.8
Jan-Mar 2020 2.5 4.0
Apr-Jun 2020 2.8 4.1
Jul-Sep 2020 3.4 4.9
Oct-Dec 2020 3.8 5.2
Jan-Mar 2021 4.2 4.9
Apr-Jun 2021 4.3 4.7
Jul-Sep 2021 4.3 4.3
Oct-Dec 2021 3.2 4.0
Jan-Mar 2022 2.6 3.7
Apr-Jun 2022 2.7 3.8
Jul-Sep 2022 3.0 3.6


Figure 1 shows unemployment rates for NI and the UK over the last 15 years. During this period, the UK rate peaked at 8.4% in late-2011 while the NI rate peaked at 8.0% in spring 2013. Following these peaks, both rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019, when the NI rate recorded a low point of 2.4%. The latest UK rate is the lowest since 1974, whilst the NI rate remains above the low point in 2019 (prior to the pandemic).

The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period July-September 2022 was estimated at 3.0%. This was:

  • an increase of 0.3pps over the quarter (not statistically significant)
  • a decrease of 1.3pps over the year (statistically significant)

The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 26,000, which was:

  • up 2,000 from last quarter; and
  • down 11,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex:

  • the male (age 16 and over) unemployment rate (3.8%) decreased by 2.0pps over the year; and
  • the female (age 16 and over) unemployment rate (2.1%) decreased by 0.7pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 3.0% was 0.6pps below the overall UK rate of 3.6%; and
  • the joint-third lowest of the twelve UK regions.

Long-term unemployment:

The percentage of unemployed who have been unemployed for 1 year or more (long-term) in NI was 36.8%. This was:

  • a decrease of 2.8pps from the same period last year; and
  • the lowest percentage since January-March 2021.

2.2 Claimant count (experimental)

Claimant Count (experimental) consists of all people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) plus those Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Some claimants are wholly unemployed and seeking work, while others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support.

Key findings

  • Over the month to October 2022, the NI claimant count increased by 1.4% to 36,100.
  • In October 2022, 3.8% of the NI workforce were recorded on the claimant count.

Figure 2: The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate remains higher than the pre-pandemic rate

NI seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, October 2007 to October 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Undercount Rate
Oct 2007 2.7
Nov 2007 2.7
Dec 2007 2.7
Jan 2008 2.6
Feb 2008 2.6
Mar 2008 2.6
Apr 2008 2.7
May 2008 2.8
Jun 2008 2.9
Jul 2008 3.0
Aug 2008 3.1
Sep 2008 3.3
Oct 2008 3.5
Nov 2008 3.9
Dec 2008 4.1
Jan 2009 4.3
Feb 2009 4.7
Mar 2009 5.0
Apr 2009 5.2
May 2009 5.4
Jun 2009 5.6
Jul 2009 5.7
Aug 2009 5.8
Sep 2009 5.9
Oct 2009 6.0
Nov 2009 6.0
Dec 2009 6.1
Jan 2010 6.1
Feb 2010 6.1
Mar 2010 6.1
Apr 2010 6.1
May 2010 6.1
Jun 2010 6.2
Jul 2010 6.2
Aug 2010 6.3
Sep 2010 6.4
Oct 2010 6.4
Nov 2010 6.4
Dec 2010 6.4
Jan 2011 6.4
Feb 2011 6.5
Mar 2011 6.5
Apr 2011 6.5
May 2011 6.5
Jun 2011 6.6
Jul 2011 6.7
Aug 2011 6.7
Sep 2011 6.7
Oct 2011 6.7
Nov 2011 6.7
Dec 2011 6.7
Jan 2012 6.9
Feb 2012 6.9
Mar 2012 6.9
Apr 2012 7.0
May 2012 7.0
Jun 2012 7.1
Jul 2012 7.2
Aug 2012 7.1
Sep 2012 7.2
Oct 2012 7.2
Nov 2012 7.2
Dec 2012 7.3
Jan 2013 7.2
Feb 2013 7.2
Mar 2013 7.2
Apr 2013 7.2
May 2013 7.1
Jun 2013 7.0
Jul 2013 7.0
Aug 2013 7.0
Sep 2013 6.9
Oct 2013 6.8
Nov 2013 6.7
Dec 2013 6.6
Jan 2014 6.5
Feb 2014 6.4
Mar 2014 6.3
Apr 2014 6.2
May 2014 6.1
Jun 2014 6.0
Jul 2014 5.8
Aug 2014 5.8
Sep 2014 5.8
Oct 2014 5.7
Nov 2014 5.6
Dec 2014 5.5
Jan 2015 5.4
Feb 2015 5.2
Mar 2015 5.0
Apr 2015 4.9
May 2015 4.8
Jun 2015 4.8
Jul 2015 4.7
Aug 2015 4.6
Sep 2015 4.5
Oct 2015 4.4
Nov 2015 4.4
Dec 2015 4.3
Jan 2016 4.2
Feb 2016 4.2
Mar 2016 4.2
Apr 2016 4.1
May 2016 4.0
Jun 2016 4.0
Jul 2016 3.9
Aug 2016 3.8
Sep 2016 3.8
Oct 2016 3.7
Nov 2016 3.6
Dec 2016 3.6
Jan 2017 3.5
Feb 2017 3.5
Mar 2017 3.4
Apr 2017 3.4
May 2017 3.4
Jun 2017 3.3
Jul 2017 3.3
Aug 2017 3.3
Sep 2017 3.2
Oct 2017 3.2
Nov 2017 3.1
Dec 2017 3.2
Jan 2018 3.1
Feb 2018 3.2
Mar 2018 3.1
Apr 2018 3.1
May 2018 3.1
Jun 2018 3.1
Jul 2018 3.0
Aug 2018 3.0
Sep 2018 3.1
Oct 2018 3.1
Nov 2018 3.2
Dec 2018 3.2
Jan 2019 3.1
Feb 2019 3.1
Mar 2019 3.1
Apr 2019 3.1
May 2019 3.1
Jun 2019 3.1
Jul 2019 3.1
Aug 2019 3.0
Sep 2019 3.1
Oct 2019 3.2
Nov 2019 3.2
Dec 2019 3.2
Jan 2020 3.0
Feb 2020 3.0
Mar 2020 3.0
Apr 2020 5.7
May 2020 6.5
Jun 2020 6.3
Jul 2020 6.2
Aug 2020 6.3
Sep 2020 6.1
Oct 2020 6.0
Nov 2020 6.0
Dec 2020 5.9
Jan 2021 5.9
Feb 2021 6.1
Mar 2021 6.0
Apr 2021 5.9
May 2021 5.6
Jun 2021 5.4
Jul 2021 5.2
Aug 2021 5.1
Sep 2021 5.0
Oct 2021 4.9
Nov 2021 4.6
Dec 2021 4.4
Jan 2022 4.2
Feb 2022 4.1
Mar 2022 4.0
Apr 2022 3.9
May 2022 3.8
Jun 2022 3.8
Jul 2022 3.8
Aug 2022 3.8
Sep 2022 3.8
Oct 2022 3.8


In October 2022, 36,100 people were recorded on the NI Claimant Count. This is 43.6% less than the recent peak in May 2020 and 21.1% more than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020. The increases in the claimant count between March 2020 and May 2020 can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced, resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold.

The NI seasonally adjusted claimant count was 36,100 (3.8% of the workforce) in October 2022, representing:

  • an increase of 500 (1.4%) over the month
  • an increase of 0.7% in males and an increase of 2.5% in females over the month
  • a decrease of 9,800 (21.4%) over the year
  • an increase of 6,300 (21.1%) since March 2020, and
  • the sixth consecutive month that the claimant count rate has remained at 3.8%.

UK regional comparison:

  • The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 0.2% over the month to 1,536,200 (3.9% of the workforce).
  • The UK count is 42.9% below the recent peak in August 2020 and 24.7% above the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

2.3 Redundancies

Redundancies: Companies must inform the Department of (a) impending redundancies of 20 or more employees and (b) subsequent confirmed redundancies. Since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Key findings

  • 60 redundancies were confirmed in October 2022, taking the annual total to 940, which was 72.1% less than the previous year (3,370).
  • In the latest 12-month period, there were 1,290 proposed redundancies, which was 64.7% less than the previous year (3,650).

Confirmed redundancies

During October 2022, the Department was notified of:

  • 60 confirmed redundancies, (a quarter of the monthly average (240) during 2021).

Over the latest twelve month period there were:

  • 940 confirmed redundancies, which was 72.1% less than the previous year (3,370).
  • 220 confirmed redundancies (23.6%) in the financial and insurance activities sector.
  • 200 confirmed redundancies (21.7%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 180 confirmed redundancies (19.6%) in the manufacturing sector.

Proposed redundancies

In line with the statistical disclosure control policy to prevent identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. As such, the number of proposed redundancies for the month of October cannot be disclosed.

Over the last twelve months to the end of October 2022 there were:

  • 1,290 proposed redundancies, which was 64.7% less than the previous year (3,650).
  • 300 proposed redundancies (23.2%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 140 proposed redundancies (11.0%) in the manufacturing sector.
  • 130 proposed redundancies (9.9%) in the administrative and support service activities sector.


3. Employment

3.1 LFS employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The NI employment rate for July-September 2022 increased over both the quarter and the year to 70.1%.
  • The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.5%.

Figure 4: Similar trend in NI and UK employment rates over the last 15 years

Seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64), Jul-Sep 2007 to Jul-Sep 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Jul-Sep 2007 68.1 72.7
Oct-Dec 2007 68.1 72.9
Jan-Mar 2008 68.2 73.0
Apr-Jun 2008 68.7 72.9
Jul-Sep 2008 68.1 72.4
Oct-Dec 2008 66.8 72.2
Jan-Mar 2009 64.8 71.7
Apr-Jun 2009 64.0 70.8
Jul-Sep 2009 64.5 70.6
Oct-Dec 2009 65.6 70.6
Jan-Mar 2010 65.9 70.2
Apr-Jun 2010 66.3 70.4
Jul-Sep 2010 66.2 70.7
Oct-Dec 2010 65.9 70.4
Jan-Mar 2011 66.9 70.5
Apr-Jun 2011 67.7 70.5
Jul-Sep 2011 67.3 70.1
Oct-Dec 2011 67.6 70.2
Jan-Mar 2012 67.4 70.5
Apr-Jun 2012 67.0 70.9
Jul-Sep 2012 67.3 71.1
Oct-Dec 2012 67.1 71.4
Jan-Mar 2013 66.4 71.2
Apr-Jun 2013 66.3 71.3
Jul-Sep 2013 67.0 71.7
Oct-Dec 2013 67.6 72.0
Jan-Mar 2014 67.7 72.5
Apr-Jun 2014 68.3 72.8
Jul-Sep 2014 68.4 73.0
Oct-Dec 2014 67.7 73.2
Jan-Mar 2015 68.2 73.4
Apr-Jun 2015 67.8 73.4
Jul-Sep 2015 67.9 73.8
Oct-Dec 2015 68.7 74.1
Jan-Mar 2016 69.2 74.1
Apr-Jun 2016 69.2 74.4
Jul-Sep 2016 70.1 74.4
Oct-Dec 2016 69.8 74.6
Jan-Mar 2017 68.4 74.8
Apr-Jun 2017 69.4 75.1
Jul-Sep 2017 68.3 75.0
Oct-Dec 2017 68.6 75.2
Jan-Mar 2018 69.8 75.6
Apr-Jun 2018 69.6 75.5
Jul-Sep 2018 69.4 75.6
Oct-Dec 2018 70.3 75.8
Jan-Mar 2019 71.3 76.1
Apr-Jun 2019 72.2 76.1
Jul-Sep 2019 72.3 76.0
Oct-Dec 2019 72.4 76.5
Jan-Mar 2020 71.8 76.3
Apr-Jun 2020 69.9 75.7
Jul-Sep 2020 69.9 74.9
Oct-Dec 2020 68.2 74.6
Jan-Mar 2021 67.9 74.7
Apr-Jun 2021 68.7 75.0
Jul-Sep 2021 68.1 75.3
Oct-Dec 2021 68.8 75.5
Jan-Mar 2022 70.6 75.6
Apr-Jun 2022 69.7 75.5
Jul-Sep 2022 70.1 75.5


Figure 4 shows that, over the last 15 years, the NI employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in NI between 2008 and 2009 (by almost 5pps) was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. Similarly, the fall between 2019 and 2021 was steeper for NI than the UK as a whole, following peak rates recorded for both towards the end of 2019. The NI rate is 2.3pps below the pre-pandemic rate in October-December 2019 (72.4%), whilst the UK rate is 1.0pps below.

The most recent NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period July-September 2022 was estimated at 70.1%. This was:

  • an increase of 0.4pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • an increase of 2.0pps over the year (not statistically significant);

The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 851,000, which was:

  • down 1,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 22,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex included:

  • the male (aged 16 to 64) employment rate (73.2%) increased by 5.0pps over the year; and
  • the female (aged 16 to 64) employment rate (67.0%) decreased by 1.0pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 70.1% was 5.4pps below the overall UK rate of 75.5%; and
  • the lowest of the twelve UK regions.

3.2 Total weekly hours

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Key findings

  • The total number of weekly hours worked in July-September 2022 was estimated at 26.5 million hours per week.
  • This was a decrease of 4.7% on the previous quarter and an increase of 1.7% on the same period last year.

Figure 5: Hours worked has not returned to pre-pandemic levels

Total weekly hours worked (Age 16 and over), Jul-Sep 2007 to Jul-Sep 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Total weekly hours
Jul-Sep 2007 26.2
Oct-Dec 2007 27.3
Jan-Mar 2008 26.1
Apr-Jun 2008 27.7
Jul-Sep 2008 26.5
Oct-Dec 2008 26.1
Jan-Mar 2009 25.7
Apr-Jun 2009 25.8
Jul-Sep 2009 24.3
Oct-Dec 2009 25.4
Jan-Mar 2010 25.8
Apr-Jun 2010 26.2
Jul-Sep 2010 24.5
Oct-Dec 2010 24.7
Jan-Mar 2011 26.7
Apr-Jun 2011 26.6
Jul-Sep 2011 25.3
Oct-Dec 2011 25.3
Jan-Mar 2012 26.5
Apr-Jun 2012 26.4
Jul-Sep 2012 26.1
Oct-Dec 2012 26.2
Jan-Mar 2013 26.6
Apr-Jun 2013 26.7
Jul-Sep 2013 26.5
Oct-Dec 2013 26.4
Jan-Mar 2014 27.2
Apr-Jun 2014 27.6
Jul-Sep 2014 27.2
Oct-Dec 2014 27.1
Jan-Mar 2015 27.8
Apr-Jun 2015 27.1
Jul-Sep 2015 26.1
Oct-Dec 2015 25.9
Jan-Mar 2016 27.5
Apr-Jun 2016 28.4
Jul-Sep 2016 26.5
Oct-Dec 2016 27.5
Jan-Mar 2017 28.0
Apr-Jun 2017 28.0
Jul-Sep 2017 26.7
Oct-Dec 2017 27.6
Jan-Mar 2018 28.3
Apr-Jun 2018 28.8
Jul-Sep 2018 27.6
Oct-Dec 2018 28.3
Jan-Mar 2019 29.3
Apr-Jun 2019 29.6
Jul-Sep 2019 28.9
Oct-Dec 2019 29.1
Jan-Mar 2020 28.5
Apr-Jun 2020 22.9
Jul-Sep 2020 25.4
Oct-Dec 2020 24.6
Jan-Mar 2021 25.1
Apr-Jun 2021 26.6
Jul-Sep 2021 26.1
Oct-Dec 2021 26.3
Jan-Mar 2022 28.0
Apr-Jun 2022 27.8
Jul-Sep 2022 26.5


Figure 5 shows that, like many labour market indicators, total weekly hours worked shows a seasonal pattern. Outside of these seasonal variations a trend of increasing weekly hours worked can be seen between 2009 and 2020 prior to a sharp fall between October-December 2019 and April-June 2020. Following this point, whilst there has been a general increasing trend, hours worked has not recovered to the peak levels in 2019. Hours worked in July-September 2022 were 10.5% below the peak of 29.6 million hours in April-June 2019.

The total number of weekly hours worked in NI in July-September 2022 was estimated at 26.5 million hours, this was:

  • a decrease of 1.3 million hours (4.7%) on the previous quarter;
  • an increase of 0.4 million hours (1.7%) from the same period last year; and
  • 2.6 million hours, or 9.0%, below the pre-pandemic (October-December 2019) figure.

3.3 Employees (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Payrolled employee counts (experimental) from the HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include those who are self-employed. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. As employees who were “furloughed” as part of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme programme should still have had their payments reported through this system, they should feature in these data.

Key findings

  • The number of payrolled employees in NI in October 2022 was 0.2% higher than September 2022 and 2.5% higher than October 2021.
  • In the UK, the number of employees increased by 0.2% over the month and increased by 2.7% over the year to October.

Figure 6: Number of payrolled employees increases over the month

NI payrolled employees (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to October 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland
Jul 2014 673,600
Aug 2014 674,839
Sep 2014 676,159
Oct 2014 677,567
Nov 2014 679,064
Dec 2014 678,834
Jan 2015 683,685
Feb 2015 685,403
Mar 2015 687,069
Apr 2015 690,476
May 2015 691,314
Jun 2015 693,571
Jul 2015 695,041
Aug 2015 696,117
Sep 2015 698,142
Oct 2015 698,692
Nov 2015 699,304
Dec 2015 699,149
Jan 2016 700,759
Feb 2016 701,096
Mar 2016 702,407
Apr 2016 702,358
May 2016 703,151
Jun 2016 703,296
Jul 2016 703,881
Aug 2016 705,666
Sep 2016 707,248
Oct 2016 708,435
Nov 2016 710,745
Dec 2016 712,058
Jan 2017 710,936
Feb 2017 712,523
Mar 2017 713,701
Apr 2017 715,510
May 2017 716,717
Jun 2017 718,084
Jul 2017 718,816
Aug 2017 720,414
Sep 2017 721,773
Oct 2017 723,279
Nov 2017 724,283
Dec 2017 727,891
Jan 2018 727,494
Feb 2018 728,777
Mar 2018 729,557
Apr 2018 731,108
May 2018 732,049
Jun 2018 733,052
Jul 2018 734,067
Aug 2018 735,419
Sep 2018 736,417
Oct 2018 738,706
Nov 2018 739,618
Dec 2018 740,443
Jan 2019 741,889
Feb 2019 742,872
Mar 2019 744,349
Apr 2019 745,825
May 2019 745,689
Jun 2019 745,101
Jul 2019 747,291
Aug 2019 747,537
Sep 2019 747,822
Oct 2019 748,149
Nov 2019 749,627
Dec 2019 748,953
Jan 2020 751,115
Feb 2020 752,265
Mar 2020 752,526
Apr 2020 741,931
May 2020 740,565
Jun 2020 740,230
Jul 2020 742,100
Aug 2020 738,026
Sep 2020 738,068
Oct 2020 737,566
Nov 2020 736,070
Dec 2020 736,008
Jan 2021 737,729
Feb 2021 737,859
Mar 2021 739,620
Apr 2021 741,387
May 2021 748,105
Jun 2021 755,625
Jul 2021 761,020
Aug 2021 760,173
Sep 2021 761,162
Oct 2021 762,541
Nov 2021 765,012
Dec 2021 767,232
Jan 2022 769,036
Feb 2022 769,485
Mar 2022 771,364
Apr 2022 773,346
May 2022 774,032
Jun 2022 774,632
Jul 2022 777,088
Aug 2022 780,764
Sep 2022 779,967
Oct 2022 781,262


Between 2014 and 2020 the number of payrolled employees had generally been increasing each month. Prior to COVID, payrolled employees peaked at around 752,000 in March 2020. This was followed by a sharp decrease of around 10,000 employees (1.4%) to April 2020. Employee numbers remained around that level until April 2021.

Since April 2021 there has generally been an upward trend in the number of payrolled employees, this month saw an increase following a small decrease in the previous month. The October 2022 total is now 2.5% above the level one year earlier.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • 781,300 people were payrolled employees in October 2022, a 0.2% increase from the previous month and a 2.5% increase from October 2021.
  • in the UK, there were 29,839,500 payrolled employees at October 2022, an increase of 0.2% over the month and an increase of 2.7% over the year.
  • all regions of the UK increased over the year to October 2022, where changes ranged from a 4.3% increase in London to an increase of 2.0% for North West. NI recorded a similar increase to the UK as a whole (2.5% and 2.7% respectively).
  • between March 2020 and October 2022, all regions of the UK recorded an increase in payrolled employees (an increase of 2.9% overall). Northern Ireland recorded the largest increase (3.8%) while Scotland recorded the lowest (2.2%).

3.4 Earnings (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Median measures the amount earned by the average employee, i.e. the level of earnings at which half the population are above and half the population are below.

Key findings

  • Median monthly pay increased by 0.5% (£10) over the month to October to £1,967 and was 6.3% (£117) higher than the same period last year.
  • UK median monthly pay decreased by 0.5% (£11) over the month to October to £2,131 and increased by 6.0% (£121) over the year.

Figure 7: NI median monthly pay increases over month, while UK recorded first monthly decrease in over two years

Median Monthly Pay (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to October 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland UK
Jul 2014 1490 1598
Aug 2014 1488 1601
Sep 2014 1488 1601
Oct 2014 1494 1605
Nov 2014 1498 1608
Dec 2014 1514 1617
Jan 2015 1500 1620
Feb 2015 1494 1620
Mar 2015 1500 1618
Apr 2015 1499 1614
May 2015 1498 1615
Jun 2015 1491 1616
Jul 2015 1492 1619
Aug 2015 1488 1616
Sep 2015 1494 1618
Oct 2015 1496 1626
Nov 2015 1493 1630
Dec 2015 1497 1631
Jan 2016 1502 1638
Feb 2016 1508 1640
Mar 2016 1516 1646
Apr 2016 1516 1652
May 2016 1514 1652
Jun 2016 1516 1654
Jul 2016 1519 1658
Aug 2016 1526 1659
Sep 2016 1526 1664
Oct 2016 1523 1663
Nov 2016 1529 1666
Dec 2016 1528 1668
Jan 2017 1533 1668
Feb 2017 1535 1677
Mar 2017 1546 1686
Apr 2017 1542 1689
May 2017 1544 1690
Jun 2017 1555 1694
Jul 2017 1553 1693
Aug 2017 1560 1699
Sep 2017 1562 1704
Oct 2017 1564 1706
Nov 2017 1571 1714
Dec 2017 1576 1721
Jan 2018 1569 1724
Feb 2018 1589 1728
Mar 2018 1586 1731
Apr 2018 1592 1730
May 2018 1603 1749
Jun 2018 1612 1755
Jul 2018 1611 1750
Aug 2018 1618 1770
Sep 2018 1618 1761
Oct 2018 1629 1767
Nov 2018 1634 1779
Dec 2018 1632 1772
Jan 2019 1646 1782
Feb 2019 1688 1791
Mar 2019 1661 1801
Apr 2019 1668 1810
May 2019 1680 1817
Jun 2019 1678 1812
Jul 2019 1679 1818
Aug 2019 1681 1823
Sep 2019 1682 1819
Oct 2019 1689 1825
Nov 2019 1689 1832
Dec 2019 1670 1836
Jan 2020 1702 1850
Feb 2020 1710 1860
Mar 2020 1745 1846
Apr 2020 1656 1793
May 2020 1665 1800
Jun 2020 1717 1829
Jul 2020 1739 1858
Aug 2020 1746 1878
Sep 2020 1762 1897
Oct 2020 1773 1911
Nov 2020 1782 1916
Dec 2020 1781 1926
Jan 2021 1783 1927
Feb 2021 1791 1941
Mar 2021 1799 1949
Apr 2021 1815 1965
May 2021 1805 1967
Jun 2021 1835 1976
Jul 2021 1874 1978
Aug 2021 1822 1984
Sep 2021 1841 2003
Oct 2021 1850 2010
Nov 2021 1863 2022
Dec 2021 1898 2038
Jan 2022 1935 2047
Feb 2022 1915 2053
Mar 2022 1935 2077
Apr 2022 1937 2081
May 2022 1942 2092
Jun 2022 1959 2105
Jul 2022 1952 2109
Aug 2022 1975 2116
Sep 2022 1957 2142
Oct 2022 1967 2131


Median employee pay in NI and the UK was generally on an increasing trend between mid-2015 and early 2020. A sharp increase in median pay of 2.0% was seen between February and March 2020 in NI, followed by a decrease of 5.1% in NI and 2.9% in the UK between March and April 2020. This coincided with decreases in the number of paid employees between March and April.

From April 2020, median employee pay has shown an upward trend, however in recent months some volatility has been seen in the NI results. Latest earnings (£1,967) remain 12.7% higher than the pre-pandemic level in March 2020 (£1,745).

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • NI had a median monthly pay of £1,967 in October 2022, which was an increase of 0.5% on the previous month and an increase of 6.3% from October 2021.
  • UK had a median monthly pay of £2,131 in October 2022, which was a decrease of 0.5% on the previous month and an increase of 6.0% from October 2021.
  • NI had the 6th smallest annual increase of the 12 regions. It has the lowest median earnings in the UK, while London has the highest median pay (£2,564).
  • Since March 2020, earnings in NI have increased by 12.7%, lowest of all the UK regions, and 2.7pps lower than the UK, which increased by 15.4%.


4. Economic inactivity

4.1 LFS Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The economic inactivity rate decreased over both the quarter and the year to 27.7%.
  • The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21.6%.

Figure 8: NI economic inactivity consistently above UK average

Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64), Jul-Sep 2007 to Jul-Sep 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Jul-Sep 2007 29.1 23.2
Oct-Dec 2007 28.9 23.1
Jan-Mar 2008 28.5 23.0
Apr-Jun 2008 28.5 22.9
Jul-Sep 2008 28.9 23.0
Oct-Dec 2008 29.5 22.9
Jan-Mar 2009 30.8 22.8
Apr-Jun 2009 31.5 23.1
Jul-Sep 2009 30.6 23.3
Oct-Dec 2009 30.1 23.4
Jan-Mar 2010 29.2 23.6
Apr-Jun 2010 28.9 23.5
Jul-Sep 2010 28.8 23.2
Oct-Dec 2010 28.3 23.5
Jan-Mar 2011 27.8 23.4
Apr-Jun 2011 26.8 23.3
Jul-Sep 2011 27.3 23.4
Oct-Dec 2011 27.2 23.2
Jan-Mar 2012 27.6 23.1
Apr-Jun 2012 27.3 22.8
Jul-Sep 2012 27.0 22.7
Oct-Dec 2012 27.2 22.4
Jan-Mar 2013 27.7 22.6
Apr-Jun 2013 28.3 22.5
Jul-Sep 2013 27.5 22.3
Oct-Dec 2013 27.0 22.3
Jan-Mar 2014 27.0 22.2
Apr-Jun 2014 26.8 22.2
Jul-Sep 2014 27.0 22.2
Oct-Dec 2014 28.0 22.3
Jan-Mar 2015 27.1 22.1
Apr-Jun 2015 27.4 22.1
Jul-Sep 2015 27.6 22.0
Oct-Dec 2015 26.9 21.8
Jan-Mar 2016 26.1 21.8
Apr-Jun 2016 26.4 21.6
Jul-Sep 2016 25.6 21.7
Oct-Dec 2016 26.1 21.6
Jan-Mar 2017 27.6 21.6
Apr-Jun 2017 26.8 21.3
Jul-Sep 2017 28.8 21.6
Oct-Dec 2017 28.4 21.3
Jan-Mar 2018 27.9 21.1
Apr-Jun 2018 27.6 21.2
Jul-Sep 2018 27.7 21.1
Oct-Dec 2018 26.8 20.9
Jan-Mar 2019 26.5 20.8
Apr-Jun 2019 25.5 20.7
Jul-Sep 2019 25.8 20.8
Oct-Dec 2019 25.8 20.5
Jan-Mar 2020 26.4 20.4
Apr-Jun 2020 28.0 21.0
Jul-Sep 2020 27.5 21.1
Oct-Dec 2020 29.0 21.2
Jan-Mar 2021 29.2 21.4
Apr-Jun 2021 28.1 21.2
Jul-Sep 2021 28.7 21.2
Oct-Dec 2021 28.9 21.3
Jan-Mar 2022 27.5 21.4
Apr-Jun 2022 28.3 21.4
Jul-Sep 2022 27.7 21.6


Figure 8 shows that, over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in NI has been consistently higher than the UK average. Economic inactivity in NI peaked during this time-period in 2009 at over 31%, compared to the peak in the UK rate of almost 24% at the beginning of 2010.

During the ten years to 2019, both the UK and NI economic inactivity rates were generally showing a downward trend, albeit the rate for NI has shown more variability than the UK. Whilst the NI rate has continued to show more variability than the UK since the onset of the COVID pandemic, there has been a general increasing trend for both. The NI and UK rates remain higher than the pre-pandemic period (October-December 2019), by 1.9pps and 1.2pps respectively.

The economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for July-September 2022 was estimated at 27.7%, which was:

  • a decrease of 0.6pps over the quarter (not statistically significant);
  • a decrease of 1.0pps over the year (not statistically significant)

The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 608,000, which was:

  • up 3,000 from last quarter; and
  • down 6,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex included:

  • the male (aged 16 to 64) economic inactivity rate (23.8%) decreased by 3.7pps over the year; and
  • the female (aged 16 to 64) economic inactivity rate (31.5%) increased by 1.6pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 27.7% was 6.1pps above the overall UK rate of 21.6%; and
  • the highest of the twelve UK regions.


5. Further Information

General Information

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), claimant count, redundancies counts, and HMRC PAYE statistics. The LMR also contains an overview from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in March, June, September and December. More information about the data sources can be found in the LMR Supplementary Document.

New Labour Market Report (LMR) format

The September 2022 LMR publication marked the first release in HTML format, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP). The content and format of the report and monthly tables have changed to make them more user friendly and interactive, enhancing accessibility, and increasing automation in their production. As the tables have changed, a mapping document has been created showing the relationship between the old and new tables.

In addition, the LMR, data tables and supplementary documents are now available on one webpage. Individual data source pages contain links directing users to the most recent data on the LMR publication page.

We welcome feedback from users on this new development (see Contacts).

Comparison between data sources

Although the broad concepts are similar across sources contained within this release, differences in reference periods, definitions, and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics. Additional information can be found in the LMR supplementary document, including:

  • LFS unemployment and experimental claimant count
  • LFS employment and the number of paid employees from HMRC PAYE RTI
  • LFS employment and QES employee jobs
  • HMRC PAYE RTI and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
  • Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and HMRC PAYE RTI

More information is also available in the comparison of labour market data sources article by ONS.

Seasonal adjustment

All estimates discussed in this report are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar and allows comparison over months or quarters.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a sample survey. Estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability which means if we drew many samples, each would give a different result. The sampling variability of the Northern Ireland estimates can be found in Table 2.49 of the LFS monthly tables, published alongside this report on the NISRA website. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value.

Alternative release time

The NI Labour Market Report is released at 7am. This is an ‘alternative release time’ agreed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and differs from the standard 9.30am release time for the majority of statistical reports.

Labour Force Survey

Response rates

The total eligible sample for the July-September 2022 LFS consisted of 3,947 addresses (1,198 chosen at random from the Land and Property Services (LPS) list of domestic properties and 2,749 carried forward from the previous quarter). A random start, fixed interval sampling technique of the addresses, which are ordered by Council Area and Ward, is used. This ensures a proportional representation across the Council Areas in Northern Ireland. Only private household addresses were eligible and every selected address is interviewed on five successive occasions over five quarters. This means there is an 80% sample overlap between quarters. The achieved sample size has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Table 1 is updated on a quarterly basis – additional information can be found in the supplementary document.

Table 1: Response rates, July-September 2022

Statistic Figure
Fully and partially responding 2,544
Eligible sample 3,947
Response rate (%) 64.5%

LFS revisions

LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates. The population totals used for the latest LFS estimates use projected growth rates from RTI data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used for the LFS therefore does not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates etc. since June 2021 and hence levels estimates may be under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates will, however, be robust.

In June 2022, the LFS estimates were reweighted from January-March 2020 to January-March 2022 using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data. An overview of the impact of reweighting on the NI estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website. This webpage also contains the detail on two previous LFS reweightings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in October 2020 and July 2021.

LFS comparisons

Estimates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity are derived from the LFS. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates over separate three-month periods, commonly known as 3 month rolling averages. For example, estimates relating to July-September 2022 should be compared with the estimates for April-June 2022. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for June-August 2022, as the July and August data are included within both estimates. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the NI population over a three-month period, not for a single month period.

Suppression and shading

Estimates based on fewer than 3 events are suppressed to prevent disclosure. In tables, shading is used to draw attention to lower statistical quality/precision of estimates that are based on a smaller sample size. Shaded estimates still provide the best estimate of the size of a group but comparison across time or between groups with similar values should be avoided. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

Due to the small sample sizes and the effect this has on the precision of the figures, estimates for youth unemployment have not been included in this bulletin this month.

Claimant Count

Experimental claimant count

The measure is categorised as experimental as the statistics are in the testing phase and not yet fully developed. ONS have produced a useful Guide to Experimental Statistics, and an FAQ document explaining the difference between the previous measure and this experimental measure is available on the changes to the claimant count page.

Claimant count revisions

Seasonally adjusted estimates are revised on a regular basis. Each month the previous estimate is revised in line with the current seasonal adjustment model, giving the best estimate of change for the latest period.

Claimant count undercount correction note

A number of claims across the UK to the UC element of the Claimant Count were coded to incorrect locations for data relating to December 2018 to November 2019. This has been corrected for December 2019 onwards, but previous periods remain affected. The impact of the revision on NI for December 2019 was an increase of fewer than 1,000 cases.

Percentage of workforce

The number of claimants as a percentage of workforce jobs plus claimants. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs, self-employment jobs, HM Forces, and government-supported trainees. This measure is only available at the NI level.

Redundancies

To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the NISRA website.

HMRC PAYE Real Time Information

Age breakdowns are published in January, April, July and October, and industry sector breakdowns published in February, May, August and November. Data are subject to revisions.

Further information on UK monthly pay, UK pay distribution, methodology, data source, collection, and coverage of PAYE RTI data, as well as information on imputation and revisions can be found on the Earnings and employment from PAYE page.


The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for their co-operation in agreeing to take part in the surveys and for facilitating the collection of the relevant data.


6. Contacts

For further information contact:

Labour Force Survey, Claimant Count, and Redundancies

Mark McFetridge
Email:

HMRC PAYE

Ashleigh Warwick
Email:


Web: Labour Market and Social Welfare
Twitter: NISRA

National Statistics logo

7. National Statistics Status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics were designated as National Statistics in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for statistics. A compliance check in March 2020 recommended the continued designation of the report as a National Statistic. These statistics were considered as part of a wider assessment of the UK employment and jobs statistics.

Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

  • New HTML Labour Market Report and monthly tables, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP) to enhance usability and accessibility (in line with regulations) and increase automation of production;
  • Providing more context to results by setting recent changes within context of longer term trends;
  • Removed pre-release access to enhance trustworthiness, and brought forward the publication date as a result;
  • Improved timeliness of quarterly labour force survey tables (ranging from 1 week to 3 months) by incorporating quarterly tables in the main Labour Market Report Publication;
  • Improved quality of the LFS data by boosting the sample size and improving precision around headline estimates (Please note, sample sizes decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to difficulty of collecting survey information from households, but have since returned to pre-pandemic levels);
  • Reviewed and updated quality protocols for release for LFS data;
  • Improved accessibility of labour market statistics by changing the release dates of statistics to avoid public holidays;
  • Included additional administrative sources of labour market data to provide a fuller picture of the labour market;
  • Changed the timing of release in line with change in ONS release practices in response to COVID-19 where the exemption has now been transferred to an alternative release time of 7am as agreed by the OSR.