All tables associated with this report can be downloaded from the NISRA website.

1. Overview

1.1 Key points

The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people aged 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period November-January 2024 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.3%. This was an increase of 0.1 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and unchanged over the year.

Unemployment section 2.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased by 0.5pps over the quarter and increased by 0.5pps over the year to 71.3%.

Employment section 3.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased by 0.7pps over the quarter and decreased by 0.5pps over the year to 27.0%.

Economic inactivity section 4.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The total number of weekly hours worked in NI was estimated at 27.5 million hours, a decrease of 1.8% on the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.3% on the equivalent period last year.

Employment section 3.2
The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in February 2024 was 801,100, an increase of 0.1% over the month and an increase of 1.9% over the year.

Employment section 3.3
Earnings from HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,144 in February 2024, an increase of £8 (0.4%) over the month and an increase of £92 (4.5%) over the year.

Employment section 3.4
In February 2024, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 36,400 (3.8% of the workforce), an increase of 2.1% from the previous month’s revised figure. The February 2024 claimant count remains 22.0% higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

Unemployment section 2.2
NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 60 redundancies occurred in February 2024. Over the year March 2023 to February 2024, 2,430 redundancies were confirmed. There were 360 proposed redundancies in February 2024, taking the annual total to 3,920.

Unemployment section 2.3
Businesses reported that employee jobs decreased over the quarter (0.6%) and increased over the year (0.8%) to 817,780 jobs in December 2023.

Employment section 3.5

1.2 Commentary

Today’s release updates the Labour Market Report published on Tuesday 12th March which contained HMRC Real Time Information data, Quarterly Employment Survey data, Claimant Count data and NI redundancy data, only to now include Labour Force Survey results.

An issue was detected in the ONS’s processing of the weights for the Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for Northern Ireland for the November 2023 to January 2024 period. This issue has now been rectified by ONS and the data has been quality assured by NISRA.

The latest Labour Market release shows that over the year the Labour Force Survey employment and economic inactivity rates have improved, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged. In addition, both payrolled employee numbers and earnings have increased over the year, while employee jobs decreased in December 2023 following ten consecutive quarterly increases.

Households reported, via the Labour Force Survey (LFS), over the year to November-January 2024, a 0.5pps increase in the employment rate, to 71.3%, with a 0.5pps decrease in the economic inactivity rate (to 27.0%). The unemployment rate has remained at 2.3% over the year to November-January 2024. None of these annual changes were statistically significant.

The latest HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.1% over the month and by 1.9% over the year. Payrolled earnings increased by 0.4% over the month and were 4.5% higher than February 2023.

Businesses reported, via the Quarterly Employment Survey, that employee jobs in NI decreased over the quarter but increased over the year to 817,780 jobs in December 2023. Quarterly increases in employee jobs were seen within the construction industry. Other industries jobs remained stable with only marginal change over the quarter to December 2023. Employee jobs decreased over the quarter within the services and manufacturing industries. There were increases in employee jobs over the year within the construction, services and other industries sectors to December 2023. Employee jobs within the manufacturing sector decreased marginally over the year.

In February 2024, the Department was notified of 60 confirmed redundancies, bringing the rolling twelve-month total of confirmed redundancies to 2,430. This was over two and a half times the figure for the previous year (940). There were also 360 proposed redundancies reported to the Department in February 2024, bringing the annual total of proposed redundancies to 3,920, almost double the figure for the previous year (2,180). Although the rolling twelve-month totals of proposed and confirmed redundancies are considerably higher than the previous year, they are both similar to the levels seen in the decade preceding the pandemic.

Finally, there was an increase of 2.1% in the claimant count estimate over the month to February 2024 from the revised figure for January 2024. The claimant count rate at February 2024 was 3.8% - a slight increase from the rate in January 2024 (3.7%) and the twenty third consecutive month that the Claimant Count rate has been within the range 3.6% to 3.8%.

1.3 Things users need to know

Publication of the updated NI labour market statistics publication

Today’s release updates the Labour Market Report published on Tuesday 12th March to now include Labour Force Survey results. The report also includes the previously published updates from HMRC Real Time Information data, Quarterly Employment Survey data, Claimant Count data and NI redundancy data.

An issue was detected in the ONS’s processing of the weights for the Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for Northern Ireland for the November 2023 to January 2024 period, which was due for publication on 12 March 2024. As a consequence, ONS did not publish regional LFS figures as part of their March 2024 release on the 12th March 2024. ONS aim to publish LFS regional data in their April 2024 release. The UK figures for the November 2023 to January 2024 period may be subject to revision. Further information is available in this statement from ONS.

ONS have investigated and corrected the weighting issue in the LFS data for Northern Ireland for the November 2023 to January 2024 period. The data has been quality assured by NISRA. NISRA’s data collection for the November 2023 to January 2024 period is unaffected: the quality and response rates in the data collections are similar to recent periods. NISRA is continuing to work with ONS to ensure that there is no reoccurrence of the issue.

Accordingly, users are advised that NISRA have published the Northern Ireland LFS results for November 2023 to January 2024 today as planned having previously been announced on Tuesday 19th March 2024.

Labour Force Survey reweighting

The February 2024 Labour Market Report contained the first release of reweighted LFS data incorporating the latest estimates of the size and composition of the UK population, improving the representativeness of LFS estimates. More information on this reweighting can be accessed through the Impact of reweighting on Labour Force Survey key indicators: 2024 paper released by ONS on the 5th February 2024.

Labour Market Statistics – Transformation in Northern Ireland

NISRA aims to provide the most accurate and up-to-date statistics about the local labour market. To achieve this, a number of initiatives are being taken forward including greater use of administrative data sources such as HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Pay As You Earn data and the transformation of the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

Most of our labour market statistics will continue to be obtained from surveys completed by either households or businesses. Using surveys to collect labour market statistics is an effective and proven approach that delivers trusted results. In the next two years, NISRA are working towards transforming how we deliver key labour market surveys.

The transformation of the Labour Force Survey focuses on improving the design of the LFS and quality of its outputs. It will use enhanced address registers, improved sampling, and transform to a respondent led, online first approach supported by telephone collection and “knock to nudge” processes. To account for this, the transformation has also focused on a respondent-centred design of questions.

More details on the transformation plan will be published soon.

The goal of these initiatives is to reduce the time and effort needed to collect survey data, to improve overall response and to provide more accurate and relevant statistics.

1.4 Context

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI.

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 (Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page) showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.


2. Unemployment

2.1 Labour Force Survey unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The NI unemployment rate for November-January 2024 increased over the quarter and was unchanged over the year at 2.3%.
  • The most recent UK unemployment rate for November-January 2024 was estimated at 3.9%.

Figure 1: The latest NI unemployment rate remains historically low

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over), Nov-Jan 2009 to Nov-Jan 2024
Chart
Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Nov-Jan 2009 5.7 6.5
Feb-Apr 2009 6.3 7.3
May-Jul 2009 6.4 7.9
Aug-Oct 2009 6.5 7.9
Nov-Jan 2010 6.3 7.7
Feb-Apr 2010 7.1 8.0
May-Jul 2010 6.7 7.8
Aug-Oct 2010 7.5 7.9
Nov-Jan 2011 7.9 7.9
Feb-Apr 2011 7.2 7.7
May-Jul 2011 7.4 8.0
Aug-Oct 2011 6.9 8.4
Nov-Jan 2012 6.4 8.4
Feb-Apr 2012 7.0 8.2
May-Jul 2012 8.2 8.0
Aug-Oct 2012 7.8 7.9
Nov-Jan 2013 8.3 7.8
Feb-Apr 2013 7.6 7.8
May-Jul 2013 6.9 7.7
Aug-Oct 2013 7.6 7.4
Nov-Jan 2014 7.4 7.2
Feb-Apr 2014 6.7 6.6
May-Jul 2014 6.6 6.2
Aug-Oct 2014 6.4 6.0
Nov-Jan 2015 6.0 5.7
Feb-Apr 2015 6.0 5.5
May-Jul 2015 6.1 5.6
Aug-Oct 2015 6.2 5.2
Nov-Jan 2016 6.1 5.1
Feb-Apr 2016 5.6 5.1
May-Jul 2016 5.3 4.9
Aug-Oct 2016 5.7 4.9
Nov-Jan 2017 5.8 4.8
Feb-Apr 2017 5.3 4.6
May-Jul 2017 5.0 4.4
Aug-Oct 2017 3.9 4.3
Nov-Jan 2018 3.3 4.4
Feb-Apr 2018 3.3 4.3
May-Jul 2018 3.8 4.1
Aug-Oct 2018 3.6 4.1
Nov-Jan 2019 3.5 4.0
Feb-Apr 2019 3.1 3.9
May-Jul 2019 2.8 3.9
Aug-Oct 2019 2.3 3.9
Nov-Jan 2020 2.4 4.0
Feb-Apr 2020 2.5 4.2
May-Jul 2020 3.2 4.4
Aug-Oct 2020 4.0 5.2
Nov-Jan 2021 4.2 5.3
Feb-Apr 2021 3.6 5.0
May-Jul 2021 4.5 4.7
Aug-Oct 2021 4.0 4.3
Nov-Jan 2022 3.2 4.1
Feb-Apr 2022 2.6 4.0
May-Jul 2022 2.9 3.7
Aug-Oct 2022 2.9 3.9
Nov-Jan 2023 2.3 3.8
Feb-Apr 2023 2.4 3.9
May-Jul 2023 2.7 4.3
Aug-Oct 2023 2.2 4.0
Nov-Jan 2024 2.3 3.9


Figure 1 shows the unemployment rates for NI and the UK over the last 15 years. During this period, the UK unemployment rate peaked at 8.4% in late-2011, while the NI unemployment rate peaked at 8.3% in early-2013. Following these peaks, both unemployment rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019. After rises during the early part of the pandemic, both rates have since decreased. Over the most recent year to November-January 2024 the NI unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.3% while the UK unemployment rate increased by 0.1pps to 3.9%.

The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period November-January 2024 was estimated at 2.3%. This was:

  • an increase of 0.1pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • unchanged over the year.

The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 21,000, which was:

  • up 1,000 over the quarter; and
  • unchanged from the same period last year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 2.3% was 1.6pps below the most recent UK rate of 3.9%.

2.2 Claimant count (experimental)

Claimant Count (experimental) consists of all people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) plus those Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Some claimants are wholly unemployed and seeking work, while others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support.

Key findings

  • Over the month to February 2024, the NI claimant count increased by 2.1% to 36,400.
  • In February 2024, 3.8% of the NI workforce were recorded on the claimant count.

Figure 2: The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate has remained relatively stable since April 2022

NI seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, February 2009 to February 2024
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Undercount Rate
Feb 2009 4.7
Mar 2009 5.0
Apr 2009 5.2
May 2009 5.4
Jun 2009 5.6
Jul 2009 5.7
Aug 2009 5.8
Sep 2009 5.9
Oct 2009 6.0
Nov 2009 6.0
Dec 2009 6.1
Jan 2010 6.1
Feb 2010 6.1
Mar 2010 6.1
Apr 2010 6.1
May 2010 6.1
Jun 2010 6.2
Jul 2010 6.2
Aug 2010 6.3
Sep 2010 6.4
Oct 2010 6.4
Nov 2010 6.4
Dec 2010 6.4
Jan 2011 6.4
Feb 2011 6.5
Mar 2011 6.5
Apr 2011 6.5
May 2011 6.5
Jun 2011 6.6
Jul 2011 6.7
Aug 2011 6.7
Sep 2011 6.7
Oct 2011 6.7
Nov 2011 6.7
Dec 2011 6.7
Jan 2012 6.9
Feb 2012 6.9
Mar 2012 6.9
Apr 2012 7.0
May 2012 7.0
Jun 2012 7.1
Jul 2012 7.2
Aug 2012 7.1
Sep 2012 7.2
Oct 2012 7.2
Nov 2012 7.2
Dec 2012 7.3
Jan 2013 7.2
Feb 2013 7.2
Mar 2013 7.2
Apr 2013 7.2
May 2013 7.1
Jun 2013 7.0
Jul 2013 7.0
Aug 2013 7.0
Sep 2013 6.9
Oct 2013 6.8
Nov 2013 6.7
Dec 2013 6.6
Jan 2014 6.5
Feb 2014 6.4
Mar 2014 6.3
Apr 2014 6.2
May 2014 6.1
Jun 2014 6.0
Jul 2014 5.8
Aug 2014 5.8
Sep 2014 5.8
Oct 2014 5.7
Nov 2014 5.6
Dec 2014 5.5
Jan 2015 5.4
Feb 2015 5.2
Mar 2015 5.0
Apr 2015 4.9
May 2015 4.8
Jun 2015 4.8
Jul 2015 4.7
Aug 2015 4.6
Sep 2015 4.5
Oct 2015 4.4
Nov 2015 4.4
Dec 2015 4.3
Jan 2016 4.2
Feb 2016 4.2
Mar 2016 4.2
Apr 2016 4.1
May 2016 4.0
Jun 2016 4.0
Jul 2016 3.9
Aug 2016 3.8
Sep 2016 3.8
Oct 2016 3.7
Nov 2016 3.6
Dec 2016 3.6
Jan 2017 3.5
Feb 2017 3.5
Mar 2017 3.4
Apr 2017 3.4
May 2017 3.4
Jun 2017 3.3
Jul 2017 3.3
Aug 2017 3.3
Sep 2017 3.2
Oct 2017 3.2
Nov 2017 3.1
Dec 2017 3.2
Jan 2018 3.1
Feb 2018 3.2
Mar 2018 3.1
Apr 2018 3.1
May 2018 3.1
Jun 2018 3.1
Jul 2018 3.0
Aug 2018 3.0
Sep 2018 3.1
Oct 2018 3.1
Nov 2018 3.2
Dec 2018 3.2
Jan 2019 3.1
Feb 2019 3.1
Mar 2019 3.1
Apr 2019 3.1
May 2019 3.1
Jun 2019 3.1
Jul 2019 3.1
Aug 2019 3.0
Sep 2019 3.1
Oct 2019 3.2
Nov 2019 3.2
Dec 2019 3.2
Jan 2020 3.0
Feb 2020 3.0
Mar 2020 3.0
Apr 2020 5.7
May 2020 6.5
Jun 2020 6.3
Jul 2020 6.3
Aug 2020 6.3
Sep 2020 6.1
Oct 2020 6.0
Nov 2020 6.0
Dec 2020 5.9
Jan 2021 5.9
Feb 2021 6.1
Mar 2021 6.0
Apr 2021 6.0
May 2021 5.7
Jun 2021 5.4
Jul 2021 5.3
Aug 2021 5.1
Sep 2021 5.0
Oct 2021 4.9
Nov 2021 4.6
Dec 2021 4.4
Jan 2022 4.1
Feb 2022 4.0
Mar 2022 3.9
Apr 2022 3.8
May 2022 3.7
Jun 2022 3.7
Jul 2022 3.7
Aug 2022 3.6
Sep 2022 3.7
Oct 2022 3.7
Nov 2022 3.7
Dec 2022 3.7
Jan 2023 3.7
Feb 2023 3.6
Mar 2023 3.7
Apr 2023 3.8
May 2023 3.7
Jun 2023 3.7
Jul 2023 3.8
Aug 2023 3.8
Sep 2023 3.8
Oct 2023 3.8
Nov 2023 3.7
Dec 2023 3.7
Jan 2024 3.7
Feb 2024 3.8


In February 2024, 36,400 people were recorded on the NI Claimant Count. This is 43.2% less than the recent peak in May 2020 and 22.0% more than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020. The increases in the claimant count between March 2020 and May 2020 can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced due to COVID, resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold. This is the twenty-third month where the claimant count rate was in the 3.6% to 3.8% range.

The NI seasonally adjusted claimant count was 36,400 (3.8% of the workforce) in February 2024, representing:

  • an increase of 700 (2.1%) over the month
  • an increase of 1,100 (3.0%) over the year, and
  • an increase of 6,600 (22.0%) since March 2020.

Changes by sex:

  • an increase of 1.2% in males and an increase of 3.2% in females over the month, and
  • a decrease of 3.2% in males and an increase of 12.7% in females over the year.

Changes by age:

  • Over the year, there has been a 2.2% decrease in claimants aged 16 to 24, and an increase of 7.1% in claimants aged 25 to 49. The number of claimants aged 50 and over has decreased by 1.9% over the year.
  • Compared to the pre-pandemic counts in March 2020, there have been increases in claimants aged 25 to 49 (+34.0%) and aged 50 and over (+8.4%). The number of claimants aged 16 to 24 has decreased by 1.1% over this period.

Changes by Local Government District:

  • Over the year, the largest increases were seen in Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon (+7.2%) and Mid Ulster (+6.2%).
  • The largest decreases over the year were seen in Mid and East Antrim (-2.1%) and Newry, Mourne and Down (-1.1%).

UK regional comparison:

  • The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 1.1% over the month to 1,585,000 (4.0% of the workforce).
  • The UK count is 41.3% below the recent peak in August 2020 and 28.9% above the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

2.3 Redundancies

Redundancies: Companies must inform the Department of (a) impending redundancies of 20 or more employees and (b) subsequent confirmed redundancies. Since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Key findings

  • 60 redundancies were confirmed in February 2024, taking the annual total to 2,430, which was over two and a half times the figure for the previous year (940).
  • There were 360 proposed redundancies in February 2024, taking the annual total to 3,920, which was nearly double the previous year (2,180).

Figure 3: Latest annual totals of proposed and confirmed redundancies are considerably higher than the previous year

NI confirmed and proposed redundancies, Annual totals, Mar 2008-Feb 2009 to Mar 2023-Feb 2024
Chart
Table
Year Proposed Confirmed
2008/09 4,300 3,230
2009/10 4,690 4,110
2010/11 2,550 1,960
2011/12 2,930 1,870
2012/13 3,750 3,480
2013/14 2,640 2,170
2014/15 4,030 2,130
2015/16 4,360 1,990
2016/17 3,880 3,550
2017/18 3,270 1,820
2018/19 2,660 2,360
2019/20 4,390 3,050
2020/21 10,650 5,780
2021/22 2,040 2,070
2022/23 2,180 940
2023/24 3,920 2,430


Redundancy notification data generally shows a high degree of correlation between proposed and confirmed redundancies when grouped by year. The graph above shows that, generally the number of proposed redundancies is higher than confirmed redundancies indicating that not all proposed redundancies take place.

The number of proposed redundancies in February 2024 (360) is more than double the monthly averages seen in 2021 and 2022 (160 and 130), and in-keeping with the monthly average for 2023 (360). The rolling twelve-month total of 3,920 is the lowest since June 2023, yet remains similar to the trend before the pandemic.

The February 2024 total of confirmed redundancies (60) was well below the monthly averages for 2021 (240) and 2023 (220) and was the same as the monthly average for 2022 (60). The rolling twelve-month total (2,430) is lower than the recent peak in December (2,600), but remains similar to levels seen before the pandemic.

Confirmed redundancies

During February 2024, the Department was notified of:

  • 60 confirmed redundancies, lower than the monthly average (220) during 2023.

Over the latest twelve month period there were:

  • 2,430 confirmed redundancies, which was over two and a half times the figure for the previous year (940).
  • 510 confirmed redundancies (21.0%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 420 confirmed redundancies (17.1%) in the administrative and support service activities sector.
  • 390 confirmed redundancies (15.9%) in the financial and insurance activities sector.

Proposed redundancies

During February 2024, the Department was notified of:

  • 360 proposed redundancies.

Over the last twelve months, to the end of February 2024, there were:

  • 3,920 proposed redundancies, which was nearly double the figure for the previous year (2,180).
  • 780 proposed redundancies (19.8%) in the education sector.
  • 640 proposed redundancies (16.4%) in the financial and insurance activities sector.
  • 390 proposed redundancies (10.0%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.


3. Employment

3.1 LFS employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The NI employment rate for November-January 2024 increased over both the quarter and year to 71.3%.
  • The most recent UK employment rate for November-January 2024 was estimated at 75.0%.

Figure 4: Similar trend in NI and UK employment rates over the last 15 years

Seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64), Nov-Jan 2009 to Nov-Jan 2024
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Nov-Jan 2009 66.0 72.2
Feb-Apr 2009 64.6 71.4
May-Jul 2009 64.2 70.6
Aug-Oct 2009 65.2 70.6
Nov-Jan 2010 65.6 70.4
Feb-Apr 2010 66.1 70.2
May-Jul 2010 66.4 70.6
Aug-Oct 2010 65.7 70.5
Nov-Jan 2011 66.0 70.5
Feb-Apr 2011 67.2 70.5
May-Jul 2011 67.1 70.2
Aug-Oct 2011 67.7 70.1
Nov-Jan 2012 68.1 70.2
Feb-Apr 2012 67.1 70.5
May-Jul 2012 66.8 71.0
Aug-Oct 2012 67.3 71.0
Nov-Jan 2013 66.4 71.3
Feb-Apr 2013 67.1 71.2
May-Jul 2013 67.5 71.4
Aug-Oct 2013 66.8 71.8
Nov-Jan 2014 67.6 72.0
Feb-Apr 2014 67.9 72.6
May-Jul 2014 67.9 72.7
Aug-Oct 2014 68.1 72.9
Nov-Jan 2015 67.6 73.2
Feb-Apr 2015 68.3 73.3
May-Jul 2015 67.9 73.4
Aug-Oct 2015 68.5 73.8
Nov-Jan 2016 68.8 73.9
Feb-Apr 2016 69.8 74.0
May-Jul 2016 69.7 74.3
Aug-Oct 2016 69.7 74.3
Nov-Jan 2017 69.1 74.3
Feb-Apr 2017 68.8 74.6
May-Jul 2017 68.3 75.1
Aug-Oct 2017 68.4 74.8
Nov-Jan 2018 69.5 75.1
Feb-Apr 2018 69.8 75.3
May-Jul 2018 70.0 75.2
Aug-Oct 2018 69.5 75.4
Nov-Jan 2019 70.9 75.8
Feb-Apr 2019 71.3 75.8
May-Jul 2019 72.0 75.8
Aug-Oct 2019 72.4 75.8
Nov-Jan 2020 72.3 76.1
Feb-Apr 2020 70.8 75.6
May-Jul 2020 69.8 75.2
Aug-Oct 2020 69.6 74.4
Nov-Jan 2021 67.9 74.1
Feb-Apr 2021 68.4 74.3
May-Jul 2021 68.7 74.7
Aug-Oct 2021 68.4 74.9
Nov-Jan 2022 68.7 75.0
Feb-Apr 2022 70.2 75.2
May-Jul 2022 69.6 74.9
Aug-Oct 2022 70.4 75.0
Nov-Jan 2023 70.7 75.2
Feb-Apr 2023 71.1 75.4
May-Jul 2023 69.8 74.9
Aug-Oct 2023 70.8 75.1
Nov-Jan 2024 71.3 75.0


Figure 4 shows that, over the last 15 years, the NI employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in NI between 2019 and 2021 was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. The most recent NI employment rate (71.3%) was the highest rate since the pre-pandemic rate of 72.3% recorded in November-January 2020.

The most recent NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period November-January 2024 was estimated at 71.3%. This was:

  • an increase of 0.5pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • an increase of 0.5pps over the year (not statistically significant);

The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 872,000, which was:

  • up 9,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 7,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) showed that:

  • the male employment rate (74.5%) decreased by 0.1pps over the year; and
  • the female employment rate (68.1%) increased by 1.2pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 71.3% was 3.7pps below the most recent UK rate of 75.0%.

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Self-employment:

  • In November-January 2024, there were 105,000 self-employed, an increase of 9,000 (+9.9%) on a year ago, and 32,000 lower (-23.3%) than the pre-pandemic figure in November-January 2020.
  • The proportion who were self-employed (12.0%) remains below the pre-pandemic proportion (15.5% recorded in November-January 2020).

Employment by Age:

  • In November-January 2024, those aged 35 to 49 had the highest employment rate (82.8%), whilst those aged 16 to 24 had the lowest (50.2%).
  • Compared to the pre-pandemic rates in November-January 2020, the rates for all age bands decreased, with those aged 16 to 24 seeing the largest decrease (from 56.4% to 50.2%).

3.2 Total weekly hours

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Key findings

  • The total number of weekly hours worked in November-January 2024 was estimated at 27.5 million hours per week.
  • This was a decrease of 1.8% on the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.3% on the same period last year.

Figure 5: Hours worked similar to the level one year ago

Total weekly hours worked (Age 16 and over), Nov-Jan 2009 to Nov-Jan 2024
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Total weekly hours
Nov-Jan 2009 25.2
Feb-Apr 2009 25.7
May-Jul 2009 25.1
Aug-Oct 2009 25.8
Nov-Jan 2010 25.0
Feb-Apr 2010 26.0
May-Jul 2010 25.5
Aug-Oct 2010 25.6
Nov-Jan 2011 24.8
Feb-Apr 2011 26.1
May-Jul 2011 25.8
Aug-Oct 2011 26.4
Nov-Jan 2012 25.3
Feb-Apr 2012 26.2
May-Jul 2012 26.1
Aug-Oct 2012 27.1
Nov-Jan 2013 25.6
Feb-Apr 2013 26.6
May-Jul 2013 26.8
Aug-Oct 2013 27.0
Nov-Jan 2014 26.0
Feb-Apr 2014 27.4
May-Jul 2014 27.2
Aug-Oct 2014 27.7
Nov-Jan 2015 26.6
Feb-Apr 2015 27.4
May-Jul 2015 26.6
Aug-Oct 2015 27.5
Nov-Jan 2016 26.4
Feb-Apr 2016 27.6
May-Jul 2016 27.1
Aug-Oct 2016 27.3
Nov-Jan 2017 27.3
Feb-Apr 2017 28.0
May-Jul 2017 26.8
Aug-Oct 2017 27.8
Nov-Jan 2018 28.0
Feb-Apr 2018 28.1
May-Jul 2018 28.7
Aug-Oct 2018 27.9
Nov-Jan 2019 28.5
Feb-Apr 2019 29.4
May-Jul 2019 29.2
Aug-Oct 2019 29.5
Nov-Jan 2020 28.8
Feb-Apr 2020 26.0
May-Jul 2020 23.6
Aug-Oct 2020 25.9
Nov-Jan 2021 24.8
Feb-Apr 2021 25.4
May-Jul 2021 26.2
Aug-Oct 2021 27.0
Nov-Jan 2022 26.2
Feb-Apr 2022 27.9
May-Jul 2022 27.4
Aug-Oct 2022 27.7
Nov-Jan 2023 27.6
Feb-Apr 2023 28.6
May-Jul 2023 27.4
Aug-Oct 2023 28.0
Nov-Jan 2024 27.5


Figure 5 illustrates that, like many labour market indicators, total weekly hours worked shows a seasonal pattern. Outside of these seasonal variations, a trend of increasing weekly hours worked can be seen between 2009 and the end of 2019, prior to a sharp fall between November-January 2020 and May-July 2020. From early-2021 onwards, the increasing trend returned at a steeper rate than before the pandemic. Hours worked in November-January 2024 remained 6.7% below the peak of 29.5 million hours in August-October 2019.

The total number of weekly hours worked in NI in November-January 2024 was estimated at 27.5 million hours, this was:

  • a decrease of 0.5 million hours (1.8%) on the previous quarter;
  • a decrease of 0.1 million hours (0.3%) from the same period last year (not statistically significant); and
  • 1.4 million hours, or 4.7%, below the pre-pandemic (November-January 2020) figure.

The average number of weekly hours worked in November-January 2024 was estimated at 36.2 hours for those in full-time employment, and at 16.5 hours for those in part-time employment (for main jobs only, any second jobs are excluded). By sex:

  • for those in full-time employment, the average weekly hours worked for males was 38.1 hours, whereas for females it was 33.3 hours.
  • for those in part-time employment, the average weekly hours worked for males was 16.7 hours, whereas for females it was 16.5 hours.

3.3 Employees (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Payrolled employee counts (experimental) from the HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include those who are self-employed. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. As employees who were “furloughed” as part of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme programme should still have had their payments reported through this system, they should feature in these data.

Key findings

  • The number of payrolled employees in NI increased by 0.1% over the month and increased by 1.9% over the year to February 2024.
  • In the UK, the number of payrolled employees increased by 0.1% over the month and increased by 1.2% over the year to February 2024.

Figure 6: Number of payrolled employees increased over the month

NI payrolled employees (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to February 2024
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland
Jul 2014 674,103
Aug 2014 675,779
Sep 2014 676,935
Oct 2014 678,046
Nov 2014 679,521
Dec 2014 679,538
Jan 2015 684,263
Feb 2015 686,011
Mar 2015 687,704
Apr 2015 690,559
May 2015 691,457
Jun 2015 693,799
Jul 2015 695,322
Aug 2015 696,848
Sep 2015 699,459
Oct 2015 699,851
Nov 2015 700,572
Dec 2015 700,678
Jan 2016 702,177
Feb 2016 702,575
Mar 2016 703,839
Apr 2016 703,934
May 2016 704,698
Jun 2016 704,792
Jul 2016 705,262
Aug 2016 706,274
Sep 2016 707,911
Oct 2016 709,101
Nov 2016 711,421
Dec 2016 712,879
Jan 2017 711,467
Feb 2017 713,098
Mar 2017 714,328
Apr 2017 716,020
May 2017 717,534
Jun 2017 718,984
Jul 2017 719,422
Aug 2017 721,528
Sep 2017 723,041
Oct 2017 724,211
Nov 2017 725,263
Dec 2017 729,098
Jan 2018 728,398
Feb 2018 729,777
Mar 2018 730,319
Apr 2018 732,090
May 2018 733,134
Jun 2018 733,927
Jul 2018 735,026
Aug 2018 736,648
Sep 2018 738,041
Oct 2018 739,903
Nov 2018 740,507
Dec 2018 741,757
Jan 2019 742,655
Feb 2019 743,794
Mar 2019 745,174
Apr 2019 746,742
May 2019 746,627
Jun 2019 745,603
Jul 2019 747,801
Aug 2019 747,926
Sep 2019 748,430
Oct 2019 748,945
Nov 2019 750,492
Dec 2019 750,425
Jan 2020 752,267
Feb 2020 753,545
Mar 2020 753,790
Apr 2020 743,236
May 2020 742,317
Jun 2020 741,836
Jul 2020 742,993
Aug 2020 738,173
Sep 2020 738,555
Oct 2020 737,758
Nov 2020 736,284
Dec 2020 736,693
Jan 2021 738,705
Feb 2021 739,032
Mar 2021 740,387
Apr 2021 742,236
May 2021 748,474
Jun 2021 755,666
Jul 2021 761,205
Aug 2021 760,552
Sep 2021 761,530
Oct 2021 762,687
Nov 2021 765,366
Dec 2021 767,828
Jan 2022 769,864
Feb 2022 771,081
Mar 2022 772,656
Apr 2022 775,175
May 2022 776,448
Jun 2022 776,479
Jul 2022 778,339
Aug 2022 781,128
Sep 2022 780,352
Oct 2022 781,378
Nov 2022 782,791
Dec 2022 784,421
Jan 2023 784,187
Feb 2023 786,035
Mar 2023 788,930
Apr 2023 788,107
May 2023 788,725
Jun 2023 789,623
Jul 2023 790,340
Aug 2023 792,030
Sep 2023 794,688
Oct 2023 797,376
Nov 2023 798,200
Dec 2023 799,452
Jan 2024 799,955
Feb 2024 801,119


Please note:

  1. The flash estimate for the latest period is based on early data and is therefore more likely to be subject to revisions.

Between 2014 and 2020, the number of payrolled employees had generally been increasing each month, peaking at around 754,000 in March 2020. This was followed by a decrease of almost 11,000 employees (1.4%) to April 2020. Employee numbers then remained at a similar level until April 2021 when they returned to a general upward trend once again. With increases recorded for ten consecutive months, the most recent employee numbers are the highest on record.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • 801,100 people were payrolled employees in February 2024, a 0.1% increase from the previous month and a 1.9% increase over the year.
  • in the UK, there were 30,354,000 payrolled employees in February 2024, an increase of 0.1% over the month and an increase of 1.2% over the year.
  • all regions of the UK increased over the year to February 2024, where changes ranged from an increase of 0.9% in Wales to an increase of 1.9% in Northern Ireland.
  • between March 2020 and February 2024, all regions of the UK recorded an increase in payrolled employees (4.7% overall). Northern Ireland recorded the largest increase (6.3%) while Scotland recorded the lowest (3.5%).

3.4 Earnings (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Median measures the amount earned by the average employee, i.e. the level of earnings at which half the population are above and half the population are below.

Key findings

  • Median monthly pay in NI increased by 0.4% (£8) over the month to £2,144 in February 2024 and increased by 4.5% (£92) over the year.
  • UK median monthly pay decreased by 0.1% (£2) over the month to £2,331 in February 2024 and increased by 5.5% (£122) over the year.

Figure 7: Over the month median monthly pay increased in NI and decreased in the UK

Median Monthly Pay (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to February 2024
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland UK
Jul 2014 1490 1598
Aug 2014 1488 1601
Sep 2014 1488 1601
Oct 2014 1494 1605
Nov 2014 1498 1608
Dec 2014 1514 1617
Jan 2015 1500 1620
Feb 2015 1495 1620
Mar 2015 1501 1618
Apr 2015 1500 1614
May 2015 1498 1615
Jun 2015 1492 1616
Jul 2015 1493 1619
Aug 2015 1488 1616
Sep 2015 1494 1618
Oct 2015 1497 1626
Nov 2015 1494 1630
Dec 2015 1497 1631
Jan 2016 1502 1638
Feb 2016 1508 1640
Mar 2016 1516 1646
Apr 2016 1516 1652
May 2016 1514 1652
Jun 2016 1516 1654
Jul 2016 1520 1659
Aug 2016 1526 1659
Sep 2016 1527 1664
Oct 2016 1523 1663
Nov 2016 1530 1666
Dec 2016 1528 1668
Jan 2017 1533 1668
Feb 2017 1535 1677
Mar 2017 1546 1686
Apr 2017 1542 1689
May 2017 1544 1690
Jun 2017 1556 1694
Jul 2017 1555 1693
Aug 2017 1561 1699
Sep 2017 1563 1704
Oct 2017 1565 1706
Nov 2017 1572 1713
Dec 2017 1576 1721
Jan 2018 1570 1724
Feb 2018 1590 1728
Mar 2018 1586 1731
Apr 2018 1592 1730
May 2018 1604 1749
Jun 2018 1613 1755
Jul 2018 1612 1751
Aug 2018 1619 1771
Sep 2018 1620 1761
Oct 2018 1631 1767
Nov 2018 1635 1778
Dec 2018 1632 1772
Jan 2019 1647 1782
Feb 2019 1688 1791
Mar 2019 1660 1801
Apr 2019 1669 1810
May 2019 1680 1816
Jun 2019 1678 1811
Jul 2019 1680 1819
Aug 2019 1682 1824
Sep 2019 1685 1819
Oct 2019 1692 1825
Nov 2019 1687 1831
Dec 2019 1672 1835
Jan 2020 1702 1850
Feb 2020 1710 1861
Mar 2020 1743 1847
Apr 2020 1655 1793
May 2020 1665 1799
Jun 2020 1716 1828
Jul 2020 1742 1858
Aug 2020 1748 1880
Sep 2020 1768 1897
Oct 2020 1779 1912
Nov 2020 1777 1915
Dec 2020 1783 1923
Jan 2021 1784 1927
Feb 2021 1791 1942
Mar 2021 1796 1950
Apr 2021 1814 1966
May 2021 1808 1965
Jun 2021 1833 1973
Jul 2021 1879 1978
Aug 2021 1823 1987
Sep 2021 1850 2003
Oct 2021 1857 2012
Nov 2021 1853 2019
Dec 2021 1902 2033
Jan 2022 1935 2047
Feb 2022 1915 2055
Mar 2022 1929 2078
Apr 2022 1935 2081
May 2022 1944 2089
Jun 2022 1954 2100
Jul 2022 1957 2108
Aug 2022 1975 2120
Sep 2022 1966 2140
Oct 2022 1982 2151
Nov 2022 2006 2196
Dec 2022 2008 2186
Jan 2023 2037 2192
Feb 2023 2052 2209
Mar 2023 2112 2217
Apr 2023 2059 2232
May 2023 2081 2261
Jun 2023 2097 2298
Jul 2023 2088 2266
Aug 2023 2097 2280
Sep 2023 2099 2267
Oct 2023 2108 2285
Nov 2023 2125 2336
Dec 2023 2137 2322
Jan 2024 2136 2333
Feb 2024 2144 2331


Please note:

  1. The flash estimate for the latest period is based on early data and is therefore more likely to be subject to revisions.
  2. Partially missing data in the submissions of some schemes in Northern Ireland has caused unusual patterns in pay for the region. Additional imputation has been applied to these schemes from November 2023 onwards. This imputation brings overall estimates for Northern Ireland in line with the expected trend, but once corrected data is received, estimates may be subject to some further small revisions.

Median monthly pay in NI and the UK increased overall between mid-2015 and early 2020. In NI, an increase of 1.9% in median pay was recorded between February and March 2020, followed by a decrease of 5.0% between March and April 2020. The UK also saw a decrease between March and April 2020 of 2.9%. These monthly decreases coincided with decreases in the number of paid employees recorded in April 2020.

From April 2020, median employee pay has shown an upward trend in both NI and the UK. The most recent data shows that NI pay increased by 0.4% over the month compared to a decrease of 0.1% in the UK. Over the year, NI saw an increase of 4.5% compared to 5.5% in the UK as a whole. In February 2024, NI had the lowest pay, as well as the lowest growth since March 2020 of the 12 UK government regions.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • NI had a median monthly pay of £2,144 in February 2024, which was an increase of 0.4% on the previous month and an increase of 4.5% over the year.
  • UK had a median monthly pay of £2,331 in February 2024, which was a decrease of 0.1% on the previous month and an increase of 5.5% over the year.
  • NI had the third smallest annual increase of the 12 UK regions, and remains the lowest earning region in the UK. London had the highest median pay (£2,767).
  • Since March 2020, earnings in NI have increased by 23.0%, 3.2pps lower than the increase in the UK (26.2%) and the lowest of all the UK regions.

3.5 Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)

Survey date 04 December 2023

QES employee: anyone aged 16 years or over that is directly paid from a business’s payroll for carrying out a full-time or part-time job or being on a training scheme in NI. The QES counts the number of jobs rather than the number of persons with jobs.

Key findings

  • Employee jobs in NI decreased over the quarter but increased over the year to 817,780 jobs in December 2023.
  • December 2023 marks the first decrease following ten consecutive quarterly increases since June 2021.

Figure 8: Employee jobs decrease following ten consecutive quarterly increases since June 2021.

NI index of employee jobs, December 2008 to December 2023 (Quarter 4)
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Quarter NI UK
Q4 2008 100.0 100.0
Q1 2009 99.0 99.2
Q2 2009 98.4 98.6
Q3 2009 98.1 98.0
Q4 2009 98.6 97.5
Q1 2010 98.3 97.3
Q2 2010 98.0 97.4
Q3 2010 97.7 97.2
Q4 2010 97.2 97.1
Q1 2011 96.9 97.4
Q2 2011 96.5 97.2
Q3 2011 96.5 97.4
Q4 2011 95.8 97.6
Q1 2012 95.7 98.5
Q2 2012 96.1 98.1
Q3 2012 96.3 97.8
Q4 2012 96.4 97.9
Q1 2013 96.4 98.5
Q2 2013 97.0 98.9
Q3 2013 97.8 99.3
Q4 2013 97.6 100.0
Q1 2014 98.5 100.8
Q2 2014 98.4 101.9
Q3 2014 100.0 102.4
Q4 2014 99.9 103.0
Q1 2015 100.3 103.8
Q2 2015 100.7 104.1
Q3 2015 101.4 104.5
Q4 2015 101.1 104.9
Q1 2016 101.3 105.6
Q2 2016 101.7 106.0
Q3 2016 102.0 106.3
Q4 2016 102.5 106.3
Q1 2017 103.2 107.0
Q2 2017 104.0 107.0
Q3 2017 104.1 107.5
Q4 2017 105.2 107.4
Q1 2018 105.6 107.5
Q2 2018 106.0 107.6
Q3 2018 106.2 108.1
Q4 2018 107.2 108.4
Q1 2019 107.4 108.8
Q2 2019 107.4 109.1
Q3 2019 107.8 109.6
Q4 2019 108.0 109.4
Q1 2020 108.0 109.9
Q2 2020 107.6 108.9
Q3 2020 106.9 107.4
Q4 2020 106.7 107.4
Q1 2021 106.7 108.0
Q2 2021 106.7 109.0
Q3 2021 107.8 110.2
Q4 2021 108.4 110.8
Q1 2022 110.4 111.6
Q2 2022 110.8 112.4
Q3 2022 111.2 112.8
Q4 2022 112.4 113.6
Q1 2023 112.8 114.7
Q2 2023 113.0 114.9
Q3 2023 114.0 115.5
Q4 2023 113.3 115.8


Figure 8 shows estimated seasonally adjusted employee jobs, indexed to allow comparison between NI and the UK. The UK reached a low point in December 2010, more than a year before the NI low in March 2012. There are now 126,690 more employee jobs in NI since the lowest point in March 2012, and 5,263,000 more jobs in the UK since December 2010.

The seasonally adjusted employee jobs total in Northern Ireland at December 2023 was 817,780, which was:

  • a decrease of 0.6% (5,050 jobs) over the quarter from the revised September 2023 estimate of 822,830; and
  • an increase of 0.8% (6,400 jobs) over the year from the revised December 2022 estimate of 811,380.
  • Neither the quarterly nor annual changes in employee jobs were statistically significant.


4. Economic inactivity

4.1 LFS Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The NI economic inactivity rate decreased over both the quarter and the year to 27.0%.
  • The most recent UK economic inactivity rate for November-January 2024 was estimated at 21.8%.

Figure 9: NI economic inactivity consistently above UK average

Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64), Nov-Jan 2009 to Nov-Jan 2024
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Nov-Jan 2009 30.0 22.7
Feb-Apr 2009 31.0 22.9
May-Jul 2009 31.3 23.3
Aug-Oct 2009 30.2 23.3
Nov-Jan 2010 30.0 23.6
Feb-Apr 2010 28.7 23.6
May-Jul 2010 28.7 23.3
Aug-Oct 2010 28.8 23.3
Nov-Jan 2011 28.2 23.3
Feb-Apr 2011 27.5 23.5
May-Jul 2011 27.4 23.5
Aug-Oct 2011 27.2 23.3
Nov-Jan 2012 27.2 23.2
Feb-Apr 2012 27.7 23.1
May-Jul 2012 27.0 22.6
Aug-Oct 2012 26.9 22.8
Nov-Jan 2013 27.5 22.5
Feb-Apr 2013 27.2 22.6
May-Jul 2013 27.4 22.5
Aug-Oct 2013 27.5 22.3
Nov-Jan 2014 26.9 22.3
Feb-Apr 2014 27.0 22.1
May-Jul 2014 27.1 22.4
Aug-Oct 2014 27.1 22.3
Nov-Jan 2015 28.0 22.3
Feb-Apr 2015 27.2 22.3
May-Jul 2015 27.5 22.2
Aug-Oct 2015 26.9 22.0
Nov-Jan 2016 26.6 22.0
Feb-Apr 2016 25.9 21.9
May-Jul 2016 26.3 21.7
Aug-Oct 2016 25.9 21.8
Nov-Jan 2017 26.5 21.8
Feb-Apr 2017 27.2 21.7
May-Jul 2017 27.9 21.4
Aug-Oct 2017 28.7 21.7
Nov-Jan 2018 28.0 21.4
Feb-Apr 2018 27.7 21.2
May-Jul 2018 27.1 21.5
Aug-Oct 2018 27.8 21.2
Nov-Jan 2019 26.4 21.0
Feb-Apr 2019 26.4 21.0
May-Jul 2019 25.8 21.1
Aug-Oct 2019 25.9 21.1
Nov-Jan 2020 25.9 20.7
Feb-Apr 2020 27.3 21.0
May-Jul 2020 27.8 21.2
Aug-Oct 2020 27.4 21.4
Nov-Jan 2021 29.0 21.6
Feb-Apr 2021 29.0 21.7
May-Jul 2021 27.9 21.5
Aug-Oct 2021 28.7 21.6
Nov-Jan 2022 28.9 21.8
Feb-Apr 2022 27.8 21.7
May-Jul 2022 28.2 22.1
Aug-Oct 2022 27.4 21.9
Nov-Jan 2023 27.5 21.7
Feb-Apr 2023 27.1 21.4
May-Jul 2023 28.2 21.6
Aug-Oct 2023 27.7 21.8
Nov-Jan 2024 27.0 21.8


Figure 9 shows that, over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in NI has been consistently higher than the UK average with more variability in economic inactivity in NI than the UK. Economic inactivity in NI peaked during this time-period in 2009 at over 31%, compared to the lower peak in the UK rate of almost 24% at the beginning of 2010.

During the ten years to 2019, the trend for both the UK and NI economic inactivity rates was generally downward. From the onset of the COVID pandemic, both UK and NI economic inactivity rates increased. Compared to the pre-pandemic period (November-January 2020), the most recent economic inactivity rates for NI (27.0%) and the UK (21.8%) were both 1.2pps higher than their pre-pandemic equivalents in November-January 2020. Over the last year, the economic inactivity rate in NI has seen a decrease of 0.5pps whilst the UK rate has seen an increase of 0.1pps.

The economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for November-January 2024 was estimated at 27.0%, which was:

  • a decrease of 0.7pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • a decrease of 0.5pps over the year (not statistically significant).

The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 617,000, which was:

  • down 7,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 2,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) showed:

  • a decrease of 0.4pps over the year in the male economic inactivity rate to 23.3%; and
  • a decrease of 1.3pps over the year in the female economic inactivity rate to 30.7%.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 27.0% was 5.2pps above the most recent UK rate of 21.8%.

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Reasons for inactivity:

  • In November-January 2024, the most common reason for economic inactivity among the working age population was ‘long-term sick’. There were 130,000 ‘long-term sick’, accounting for 40.6% of the total economically inactive (aged 16 to 64), or 11.0% of the working age population. This was unchanged from the same period last year and 27,000 (+26.7%) higher than the pre-pandemic figure in November-January 2020.
  • Compared to the pre-pandemic figures in November-January 2020, there has been an increase in the number of ‘long-term sick’ (+27,000), and ‘student’ (+16,000), however the total for ‘family and home care’ (-17,000) has decreased. The number inactive due to retirement has remained unchanged over this period.

Inactivity by Age:

  • In November-January 2024, those aged 65 and over (299,000) made up the highest proportion (48.2%) of the total economically inactive (age 16 and over), with those aged 25 to 34 (34,000) making up the lowest proportion (5.6%) across the age groups.
  • Those aged 65 and over had the highest economic inactivity rate (90.2%), whilst those aged 25 to 34 had the lowest (14.6%). These rates are similar to the pre-pandemic rates in November-January 2020 (89.6% and 15.4% respectively).


5. Further Information

General Information

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), claimant count, redundancies counts, and HMRC PAYE statistics. The LMR also contains an overview from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in March, June, September and December. More information about the data sources can be found in the LMR Supplementary Document.

Comparison between data sources

Although the broad concepts are similar across sources contained within this release, differences in reference periods, definitions, and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics. Additional information can be found in the LMR supplementary document, including comparisons between:

  • LFS unemployment and experimental claimant count
  • LFS employment and the number of paid employees from HMRC PAYE RTI
  • LFS employment and QES employee jobs
  • HMRC PAYE RTI and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
  • Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and HMRC PAYE RTI

More information is also available in the comparison of labour market data sources article by ONS.

Seasonal adjustment

All estimates discussed in this report are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar and allows comparison over months or quarters.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a sample survey. Estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability which means if we drew many samples, each would give a different result. The sampling variability of the Northern Ireland estimates can be found in Table 2.49 of the LFS monthly tables, published alongside this report on the NISRA website. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value.

Labour Force Survey

Response rates

The methodology for determining the response rate for the NI LFS has been revised to follow the same methodology as that used in ONS. This allows for the comparability of the response rate against the UK.

The achieved sample size for the Northern Ireland Labour Force Survey during October to December 2023 was 2,362, a decrease of 7.7% from the same period last year.

Table 1: LFS Response rates, October-December 2021 to October-December 2023

Period NI Response Rate (%) UK Response Rate (%)
October-December 2021 28.2 26.6
January-March 2022 33.3 27.2
April-June 2022 43.3 27.8
July-September 2022 46.4 26.1
October-December 2022 47.4 23.6
January-March 2023 48.0 21.5
April-June 2023 47.4 19.6
July-September 2023 43.9 17.4
October-December 2023 41.9 18.8

Please note, response rates are updated quarterly.

LFS revisions

LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates. The population totals for January-March 2020 to June-August 2022, however, used projected growth rates from RTI data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used at that time for the LFS therefore did not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates etc. since June 2021 and hence the estimates of levels may have been under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates for this period will, however, be robust.

The latest LFS reweighting was introduced in February 2024, affecting data from July-September 2022 to September-November 2023, to incorporate the latest estimates of the size and composition of the UK population. Previous reweightings occured in October 2020, July 2021 and June 2022 and an overview of the impact of reweighting on the NI estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website.

LFS comparisons

Estimates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity are derived from the LFS. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates over separate three-month periods, commonly known as 3 month rolling averages. For example, estimates relating to November-January 2024 should be compared with the estimates for August-October 2023. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for October-December 2023, as the November and December data are included within both estimates. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the NI population over a three-month period, not for a single month period.

Suppression and shading

Estimates based on fewer than 3 events are suppressed to prevent disclosure. In tables, shading is used to draw attention to lower statistical quality/precision of estimates that are based on a smaller sample size. Shaded estimates still provide the best estimate of the size of a group but comparison across time or between groups with similar values should be avoided. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

Due to the small sample sizes and the effect this may have on the precision of the figures, estimates for long-term unemployment, youth unemployment and annual changes in unemployment by sex have not been included in this bulletin this month.

Claimant Count

Experimental claimant count

This measure is categorised as experimental as the statistics are in the testing phase and not yet fully developed. ONS have produced a useful Guide to Experimental Statistics, and an FAQ document explaining the difference between the previous measure and this experimental measure is available on the changes to the claimant count page.

Claimant count revisions

Seasonally adjusted estimates are revised on a regular basis. Each month the previous estimate is revised in line with the current seasonal adjustment model, giving the best estimate of change for the latest period.

Also, a seasonal adjustment review takes place once a year. Typically, the last 3 years are revised and this takes the most recent year of data into account when determining the seasonal adjustment model. These revisions affect only the seasonally adjusted data.

Claimant count undercount correction note

A number of claims across the UK to the UC element of the Claimant Count were coded to incorrect locations for data relating to December 2018 to November 2019. This has been corrected for December 2019 onwards, but previous periods remain affected. The impact of the revision on NI for December 2019 was an increase of fewer than 1,000 cases.

Percentage of workforce

The number of claimants as a percentage of workforce jobs plus claimants. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs, self-employment jobs, HM Forces, and government-supported trainees. This measure is only available at the NI level.

Redundancies

To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the NISRA website.

HMRC PAYE Real Time Information

Age breakdowns are published in January, April, July and October, and industry sector breakdowns published in February, May, August and November. Data are subject to revisions.

Further information on UK monthly pay, UK pay distribution, methodology, data source, collection, and coverage of PAYE RTI data, as well as information on imputation and revisions can be found on the Earnings and employment from PAYE page.

Quarterly Employment Survey

QES revisions

QES estimates are revised quarterly to reflect the latest information provided to the Department by employers. The September 2023 seasonally adjusted estimate first published in December 2023 has remained unchanged. For further details, please see the Quarterly Employment Survey revisions page.


The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households and businesses for their co-operation in agreeing to take part in the surveys and for facilitating the collection of the relevant data.


6. Contacts

For further information contact:

Labour Force Survey, Claimant Count, and Redundancies

Mark McFetridge
Email:

Quarterly Employment Survey

Ciaran Kerr
Email:

HMRC PAYE

Ashleigh Warwick
Email:


Web: Labour Market and Social Welfare
Twitter: NISRA

National Statistics logo

7. Accredited Official Statistics Status

These official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for Statistics. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and are therefore labelled as accredited official statistics. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. For further information, please refer to the Office for Statistics Regulation accredited official statistics webpage.

As outlined above, our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards using the details in Section 6.

Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing or via the OSR website.