All tables associated with this report can be downloaded from the NISRA website.

1. Overview

1.1 Key points

The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in December 2022 was 783,800, an increase of 0.2% over the month and an increase of 2.0% over the year.

Employment section 3.3
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,021 in December 2022, an increase of £7 (0.3%) over the month and an increase of £119 (6.3%) over the year.

Employment section 3.4
In December 2022, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 36,900 (3.9% of the workforce), which was an increase of 2.1% from the previous month’s revised figure. The December 2022 claimant count remains higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020 by 23.9%.

Unemployment section 2.2
NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 80 redundancies occurred in December 2022. Over the year January 2022 to December 2022, 730 redundancies were confirmed, 74.4% less than in the previous 12 months. There were 80 proposed redundancies in December 2022, taking the annual total to 1,570 (19.3% less than in the previous 12 months).

Unemployment section 2.3
The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people age 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period September-November 2022 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.8%. This was a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and a decrease of 0.8pps over the year.

Unemployment section 2.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Aged 16+) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased by 1.4pps over the quarter and increased by 3.3pps over the year to 71.3%. The annual change was statistically significant.

Employment section 3.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16-64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased by 1.2pps over the quarter and decreased by 2.8pps over the year to 26.6%. The annual change was statistically significant.

Economic inactivity section 4.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16-64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The total number of weekly hours worked in NI was estimated at 28.5million hours, an increase of 6.9% on the previous quarter and an increase of 4.3% on the equivalent period last year.

Employment section 3.2

1.2 Commentary

The latest labour market release shows that payrolled employee numbers and earnings have both increased over the year. Measures of total employment (e.g. employment rate and hours worked), unemployment and economic inactivity continue to show improvement over the year but have not yet returned to their pre-pandemic position.

The latest HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.2% over the month and are 2.0% above the figure recorded in December 2021. Payrolled earnings also increased over the month, by 0.3% and are 6.3% above the figure recorded in December 2021.

There were 80 redundancies confirmed to the Department in December 2022, taking the rolling twelve-month total to 730. This is the lowest twelve-month total in the time series and, following the previous two months, is the third consecutive twelve-month total under 1,000. There were 80 proposed redundancies notified to the Department in December 2022 bringing the rolling twelve-month proposed redundancies total for January-December 2022 to 1,570.

The claimant count estimate increased over the month to December 2022 from the revised estimate for November 2022, the fourth consecutive monthly increase following a trend of decreases between March 2021 and August 2022. The claimant count rate also increased over the month, for the first time since February 2021, from 3.8% to 3.9%.

Results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show a statistically significant increase in the employment rate to 71.3% over the year to September-November 2022, as well as a statistically significant decrease in the economic inactivity rate to 26.6% over the year to September-November 2022. In addition, the unemployment rate for September-November 2022 is 2.8%. Despite these changes, the employment rate remains 1.2pps below the pre-pandemic level recorded in December-February 2020, whilst the unemployment rate remains 0.3pps above the pre-pandemic position and the economic inactivity rate 1.0pps above the pre-pandemic rate. The total number of hours worked in September-November 2022 was 0.6% below the pre-pandemic position recorded in December-February 2020.

1.3 Things users need to know

LFS Occupational data

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has identified an issue with the collection of some occupational data in a number of surveys, including the Labour Force Survey (LFS). While we estimate any impacts will be small overall, this would affect the accuracy of the breakdowns in quarterly tables 2.18, 2.29 and 2.39. A decision has therefore been taken to suspend publication of these tables until this issue has been resolved. ONS are aiming to recode the occupations for January 2021 onwards over the coming months, and these will be available in spring 2023. Further details, including a list of the impacts to SOC codes, can be found on the ONS website.

1.4 Context

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI.

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 (Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page) showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.


2. Unemployment

2.1 Labour Force Survey unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The NI unemployment rate for September-November 2022 decreased over both the quarter and the year to 2.8%.
  • The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.7%.

Figure 1: NI unemployment rate remains above pre-pandemic rate

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over), Sep-Nov 2007 to Sep-Nov 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Sep-Nov 2007 4.4 5.2
Dec-Feb 2008 4.1 5.2
Mar-May 2008 4.0 5.2
Jun-Aug 2008 4.1 5.7
Sep-Nov 2008 4.3 6.2
Dec-Feb 2009 5.9 6.7
Mar-May 2009 6.3 7.6
Jun-Aug 2009 6.8 7.9
Sep-Nov 2009 6.7 7.8
Dec-Feb 2010 6.5 7.9
Mar-May 2010 7.1 7.9
Jun-Aug 2010 6.9 7.8
Sep-Nov 2010 7.8 7.9
Dec-Feb 2011 7.3 7.8
Mar-May 2011 7.1 7.8
Jun-Aug 2011 7.5 8.2
Sep-Nov 2011 6.7 8.5
Dec-Feb 2012 6.6 8.3
Mar-May 2012 6.9 8.1
Jun-Aug 2012 8.2 7.9
Sep-Nov 2012 7.8 7.8
Dec-Feb 2013 8.1 8.0
Mar-May 2013 7.7 7.8
Jun-Aug 2013 7.4 7.7
Sep-Nov 2013 7.3 7.2
Dec-Feb 2014 7.6 6.9
Mar-May 2014 6.6 6.4
Jun-Aug 2014 6.3 6.0
Sep-Nov 2014 5.9 5.9
Dec-Feb 2015 6.0 5.6
Mar-May 2015 6.2 5.6
Jun-Aug 2015 6.0 5.4
Sep-Nov 2015 6.0 5.1
Dec-Feb 2016 6.3 5.1
Mar-May 2016 5.7 4.9
Jun-Aug 2016 5.4 5.0
Sep-Nov 2016 5.8 4.8
Dec-Feb 2017 5.2 4.6
Mar-May 2017 5.1 4.4
Jun-Aug 2017 4.6 4.3
Sep-Nov 2017 4.0 4.3
Dec-Feb 2018 3.4 4.2
Mar-May 2018 3.4 4.2
Jun-Aug 2018 4.0 4.0
Sep-Nov 2018 3.5 4.0
Dec-Feb 2019 3.0 3.9
Mar-May 2019 3.1 3.8
Jun-Aug 2019 2.9 3.9
Sep-Nov 2019 2.3 3.8
Dec-Feb 2020 2.5 4.0
Mar-May 2020 2.8 4.1
Jun-Aug 2020 3.5 4.6
Sep-Nov 2020 3.3 5.1
Dec-Feb 2021 4.2 5.1
Mar-May 2021 4.2 4.9
Jun-Aug 2021 4.4 4.4
Sep-Nov 2021 3.6 4.1
Dec-Feb 2022 3.0 3.8
Mar-May 2022 2.6 3.8
Jun-Aug 2022 3.0 3.5
Sep-Nov 2022 2.8 3.7


Figure 1 shows unemployment rates for NI and the UK over the last 15 years. During this period, the UK rate peaked at 8.5% in late-2011 while the NI rate peaked at 8.2% in summer 2012. Following these peaks, both rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019, when the NI rate recorded a low point of 2.3%. The latest UK rate is 0.3pps below the pre-pandemic rate of 4.0% (December-February 2020), whilst the NI rate remains 0.3pps above the December-February 2020 rate of 2.5%.

The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period September-November 2022 was estimated at 2.8%. This was:

  • a decrease of 0.3pps over the quarter (not statistically significant)
  • a decrease of 0.8pps over the year (not statistically significant)

The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 25,000, which was:

  • down 2,000 from last quarter; and
  • down 6,000 from the same period last year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 2.8% was 0.9pps below the overall UK rate of 3.7%; and
  • the second lowest of the twelve UK regions.

Long-term unemployment:

The percentage of unemployed who have been unemployed for 1 year or more (long-term) in NI was 43.2%. This was:

  • a decrease of 3.6pps from the same period last year.

2.2 Claimant count (experimental)

Claimant Count (experimental) consists of all people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) plus those Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Some claimants are wholly unemployed and seeking work, while others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support.

Key findings

  • Over the month to December 2022, the NI claimant count increased by 2.1% to 36,900.
  • In December 2022, 3.9% of the NI workforce were recorded on the claimant count.

Figure 2: The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate remains higher than the pre-pandemic rate

NI seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, December 2007 to December 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Undercount Rate
Dec 2007 2.7
Jan 2008 2.6
Feb 2008 2.6
Mar 2008 2.6
Apr 2008 2.7
May 2008 2.8
Jun 2008 2.9
Jul 2008 3.0
Aug 2008 3.1
Sep 2008 3.3
Oct 2008 3.5
Nov 2008 3.9
Dec 2008 4.1
Jan 2009 4.3
Feb 2009 4.7
Mar 2009 5.0
Apr 2009 5.2
May 2009 5.4
Jun 2009 5.6
Jul 2009 5.7
Aug 2009 5.8
Sep 2009 5.9
Oct 2009 6.0
Nov 2009 6.0
Dec 2009 6.1
Jan 2010 6.1
Feb 2010 6.1
Mar 2010 6.1
Apr 2010 6.1
May 2010 6.1
Jun 2010 6.2
Jul 2010 6.2
Aug 2010 6.3
Sep 2010 6.4
Oct 2010 6.4
Nov 2010 6.4
Dec 2010 6.4
Jan 2011 6.4
Feb 2011 6.5
Mar 2011 6.5
Apr 2011 6.5
May 2011 6.5
Jun 2011 6.6
Jul 2011 6.7
Aug 2011 6.7
Sep 2011 6.7
Oct 2011 6.7
Nov 2011 6.7
Dec 2011 6.7
Jan 2012 6.9
Feb 2012 6.9
Mar 2012 6.9
Apr 2012 7.0
May 2012 7.0
Jun 2012 7.1
Jul 2012 7.2
Aug 2012 7.1
Sep 2012 7.2
Oct 2012 7.2
Nov 2012 7.2
Dec 2012 7.3
Jan 2013 7.2
Feb 2013 7.2
Mar 2013 7.2
Apr 2013 7.2
May 2013 7.1
Jun 2013 7.0
Jul 2013 7.0
Aug 2013 7.0
Sep 2013 6.9
Oct 2013 6.8
Nov 2013 6.7
Dec 2013 6.6
Jan 2014 6.5
Feb 2014 6.4
Mar 2014 6.3
Apr 2014 6.2
May 2014 6.1
Jun 2014 6.0
Jul 2014 5.8
Aug 2014 5.8
Sep 2014 5.8
Oct 2014 5.7
Nov 2014 5.6
Dec 2014 5.5
Jan 2015 5.4
Feb 2015 5.2
Mar 2015 5.0
Apr 2015 4.9
May 2015 4.8
Jun 2015 4.8
Jul 2015 4.7
Aug 2015 4.6
Sep 2015 4.5
Oct 2015 4.4
Nov 2015 4.4
Dec 2015 4.3
Jan 2016 4.2
Feb 2016 4.2
Mar 2016 4.2
Apr 2016 4.1
May 2016 4.0
Jun 2016 4.0
Jul 2016 3.9
Aug 2016 3.8
Sep 2016 3.8
Oct 2016 3.7
Nov 2016 3.6
Dec 2016 3.6
Jan 2017 3.5
Feb 2017 3.5
Mar 2017 3.4
Apr 2017 3.4
May 2017 3.4
Jun 2017 3.3
Jul 2017 3.3
Aug 2017 3.3
Sep 2017 3.2
Oct 2017 3.2
Nov 2017 3.1
Dec 2017 3.2
Jan 2018 3.1
Feb 2018 3.2
Mar 2018 3.1
Apr 2018 3.1
May 2018 3.1
Jun 2018 3.1
Jul 2018 3.0
Aug 2018 3.0
Sep 2018 3.1
Oct 2018 3.1
Nov 2018 3.2
Dec 2018 3.2
Jan 2019 3.1
Feb 2019 3.1
Mar 2019 3.1
Apr 2019 3.1
May 2019 3.1
Jun 2019 3.1
Jul 2019 3.1
Aug 2019 3.0
Sep 2019 3.1
Oct 2019 3.2
Nov 2019 3.2
Dec 2019 3.2
Jan 2020 3.0
Feb 2020 3.0
Mar 2020 3.0
Apr 2020 5.7
May 2020 6.5
Jun 2020 6.3
Jul 2020 6.2
Aug 2020 6.3
Sep 2020 6.1
Oct 2020 6.0
Nov 2020 6.0
Dec 2020 5.9
Jan 2021 5.9
Feb 2021 6.1
Mar 2021 6.0
Apr 2021 5.9
May 2021 5.6
Jun 2021 5.4
Jul 2021 5.2
Aug 2021 5.1
Sep 2021 5.0
Oct 2021 4.9
Nov 2021 4.6
Dec 2021 4.4
Jan 2022 4.2
Feb 2022 4.1
Mar 2022 4.0
Apr 2022 3.9
May 2022 3.8
Jun 2022 3.8
Jul 2022 3.8
Aug 2022 3.8
Sep 2022 3.8
Oct 2022 3.8
Nov 2022 3.8
Dec 2022 3.9


In December 2022, 36,900 people were recorded on the NI Claimant Count. This is 42.3% less than the recent peak in May 2020 and 23.9% more than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020. The increases in the claimant count between March 2020 and May 2020 can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced, resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold.

The NI seasonally adjusted claimant count was 36,900 (3.9% of the workforce) in December 2022, representing:

  • an increase of 800 (2.1%) over the month
  • an increase of 1.2% in males and an increase of 3.6% in females over the month
  • a decrease of 4,900 (11.8%) over the year, and
  • an increase of 7,100 (23.9%) since March 2020.

UK regional comparison:

  • The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 1.3% over the month to 1,562,300 (4.0% of the workforce).
  • The UK count is 42.0% below the recent peak in August 2020 and 26.8% above the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

2.3 Redundancies

Redundancies: Companies must inform the Department of (a) impending redundancies of 20 or more employees and (b) subsequent confirmed redundancies. Since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Key findings

  • 80 redundancies were confirmed in December 2022, taking the annual total to 730, which was 74.4% less than the previous year (2,840).
  • There were 80 proposed redundancies in December 2022, taking the annual total to 1,570, which was 19.3% less than the previous year (1,940).

Confirmed redundancies

During December 2022, the Department was notified of:

  • 80 confirmed redundancies, a third of the monthly average (240) during 2021.

Over the latest twelve month period there were:

  • 730 confirmed redundancies, which was 74.4% less than the previous year (2,840).
  • 200 confirmed redundancies (27.8%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 200 confirmed redundancies (27.7%) in the manufacturing sector.
  • 150 confirmed redundancies (20.4%) in the education sector.

Proposed redundancies

During December 2022, the Department was notified of:

  • 80 proposed redundancies, half of the monthly average (160) during 2021.

Over the last twelve months, to the end of December 2022, there were:

  • 1,570 proposed redundancies, which was 19.3% less than the previous year (1,940).
  • 470 proposed redundancies (29.9%) in the education sector.
  • 330 proposed redundancies (20.9%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 210 proposed redundancies (13.3%) in the manufacturing sector.


3. Employment

3.1 LFS employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The NI employment rate for September-November 2022 increased over both the quarter and the year to 71.3%.
  • The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.6%.

Figure 4: Similar trend in NI and UK employment rates over the last 15 years

Seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64), Sep-Nov 2007 to Sep-Nov 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Sep-Nov 2007 67.9 72.8
Dec-Feb 2008 68.5 73.0
Mar-May 2008 69.2 73.0
Jun-Aug 2008 68.4 72.6
Sep-Nov 2008 67.4 72.3
Dec-Feb 2009 65.4 71.9
Mar-May 2009 63.8 71.0
Jun-Aug 2009 64.1 70.7
Sep-Nov 2009 65.5 70.6
Dec-Feb 2010 66.2 70.3
Mar-May 2010 66.0 70.4
Jun-Aug 2010 66.4 70.6
Sep-Nov 2010 65.2 70.3
Dec-Feb 2011 66.6 70.6
Mar-May 2011 67.9 70.5
Jun-Aug 2011 67.3 70.2
Sep-Nov 2011 67.8 70.1
Dec-Feb 2012 67.7 70.3
Mar-May 2012 67.5 70.7
Jun-Aug 2012 66.7 71.2
Sep-Nov 2012 67.2 71.3
Dec-Feb 2013 66.1 71.2
Mar-May 2013 66.6 71.2
Jun-Aug 2013 66.6 71.5
Sep-Nov 2013 67.4 72.0
Dec-Feb 2014 67.5 72.4
Mar-May 2014 68.1 72.9
Jun-Aug 2014 68.2 73.0
Sep-Nov 2014 67.8 73.0
Dec-Feb 2015 68.4 73.4
Mar-May 2015 67.7 73.3
Jun-Aug 2015 67.9 73.6
Sep-Nov 2015 68.8 74.0
Dec-Feb 2016 68.8 74.1
Mar-May 2016 69.0 74.4
Jun-Aug 2016 70.1 74.5
Sep-Nov 2016 69.2 74.4
Dec-Feb 2017 68.7 74.6
Mar-May 2017 68.8 74.9
Jun-Aug 2017 68.4 75.1
Sep-Nov 2017 69.0 75.3
Dec-Feb 2018 69.4 75.4
Mar-May 2018 70.0 75.6
Jun-Aug 2018 69.8 75.6
Sep-Nov 2018 69.8 75.8
Dec-Feb 2019 71.2 76.1
Mar-May 2019 71.7 76.0
Jun-Aug 2019 71.5 75.9
Sep-Nov 2019 72.6 76.3
Dec-Feb 2020 72.5 76.6
Mar-May 2020 70.6 75.9
Jun-Aug 2020 69.9 75.3
Sep-Nov 2020 69.1 74.9
Dec-Feb 2021 67.4 74.7
Mar-May 2021 67.4 74.8
Jun-Aug 2021 69.0 75.2
Sep-Nov 2021 68.0 75.4
Dec-Feb 2022 69.3 75.5
Mar-May 2022 70.1 75.9
Jun-Aug 2022 69.9 75.5
Sep-Nov 2022 71.3 75.6


Figure 4 shows that, over the last 15 years, the NI employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in NI between 2008 and 2009 (by over 5pps) was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. Similarly, the fall between 2019 and 2021 was steeper for NI than the UK as a whole, following peak rates recorded for both towards the end of 2019. The NI employment rate remains 1.2pps below the pre-pandemic rate of 72.5% recorded in December-February 2020. Similarly, the UK rate is 1.0pps below the rate of 76.6% recorded in December-February 2020.

The most recent NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period September-November 2022 was estimated at 71.3%. This was:

  • an increase of 1.4pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • an increase of 3.3pps over the year (statistically significant);

The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 866,000, which was:

  • up 15,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 38,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex included:

  • the male (aged 16 to 64) employment rate (75.0%) increased by 5.6pps over the year; and
  • the female (aged 16 to 64) employment rate (67.7%) increased by 1.0pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 71.3% was 4.3pps below the overall UK rate of 75.6%; and
  • the lowest of the twelve UK regions.

3.2 Total weekly hours

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Key findings

  • The total number of weekly hours worked in September-November 2022 was estimated at 28.5 million hours per week.
  • This was an increase of 6.9% on the previous quarter and an increase of 4.3% on the same period last year.

Figure 5: Hours worked has not returned to pre-pandemic levels

Total weekly hours worked (Age 16 and over), Sep-Nov 2007 to Sep-Nov 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Total weekly hours
Sep-Nov 2007 27.1
Dec-Feb 2008 26.2
Mar-May 2008 27.6
Jun-Aug 2008 26.7
Sep-Nov 2008 27.8
Dec-Feb 2009 24.8
Mar-May 2009 25.3
Jun-Aug 2009 24.2
Sep-Nov 2009 26.0
Dec-Feb 2010 25.3
Mar-May 2010 26.0
Jun-Aug 2010 24.6
Sep-Nov 2010 26.2
Dec-Feb 2011 25.3
Mar-May 2011 26.4
Jun-Aug 2011 25.1
Sep-Nov 2011 26.9
Dec-Feb 2012 25.6
Mar-May 2012 26.6
Jun-Aug 2012 25.7
Sep-Nov 2012 27.5
Dec-Feb 2013 25.5
Mar-May 2013 26.7
Jun-Aug 2013 26.0
Sep-Nov 2013 27.3
Dec-Feb 2014 26.3
Mar-May 2014 27.7
Jun-Aug 2014 26.7
Sep-Nov 2014 27.9
Dec-Feb 2015 27.5
Mar-May 2015 27.0
Jun-Aug 2015 25.8
Sep-Nov 2015 28.1
Dec-Feb 2016 26.4
Mar-May 2016 27.3
Jun-Aug 2016 26.6
Sep-Nov 2016 27.9
Dec-Feb 2017 27.1
Mar-May 2017 27.6
Jun-Aug 2017 26.6
Sep-Nov 2017 28.6
Dec-Feb 2018 28.0
Mar-May 2018 28.6
Jun-Aug 2018 27.9
Sep-Nov 2018 28.7
Dec-Feb 2019 28.6
Mar-May 2019 29.6
Jun-Aug 2019 28.7
Sep-Nov 2019 30.2
Dec-Feb 2020 28.7
Mar-May 2020 23.3
Jun-Aug 2020 24.8
Sep-Nov 2020 26.6
Dec-Feb 2021 24.2
Mar-May 2021 25.4
Jun-Aug 2021 26.4
Sep-Nov 2021 27.4
Dec-Feb 2022 26.3
Mar-May 2022 28.0
Jun-Aug 2022 26.7
Sep-Nov 2022 28.5


Figure 5 shows that, like many labour market indicators, total weekly hours worked shows a seasonal pattern. Outside of these seasonal variations a trend of increasing weekly hours worked can be seen between 2009 and the end of 2019, prior to a sharp fall between December-February 2020 and March-May 2020. Following this point, whilst there has been a general increasing trend, hours worked has not recovered to the peak levels in 2019. Hours worked in September-November 2022 were 5.4% below the peak of 30.2 million hours in September-November 2019.

The total number of weekly hours worked in NI in September-November 2022 was estimated at 28.5 million hours, this was:

  • an increase of 1.8 million hours (6.9%) on the previous quarter;
  • an increase of 1.2 million hours (4.3%) from the same period last year (not statistically significant); and
  • 0.2 million hours, or 0.6%, below the pre-pandemic (December-February 2020) figure.

3.3 Employees (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Payrolled employee counts (experimental) from the HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include those who are self-employed. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. As employees who were “furloughed” as part of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme programme should still have had their payments reported through this system, they should feature in these data.

Key findings

  • The number of payrolled employees in NI in December 2022 was 0.2% higher than November 2022 and 2.0% higher than December 2021.
  • In the UK, the number of employees increased by 0.1% over the month and increased by 2.3% over the year to December.

Figure 6: Number of payrolled employees increases over the month

NI payrolled employees (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to December 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland
Jul 2014 673,593
Aug 2014 674,835
Sep 2014 676,152
Oct 2014 677,554
Nov 2014 679,042
Dec 2014 678,927
Jan 2015 683,723
Feb 2015 685,389
Mar 2015 687,052
Apr 2015 690,407
May 2015 691,287
Jun 2015 693,561
Jul 2015 695,037
Aug 2015 696,117
Sep 2015 698,137
Oct 2015 698,685
Nov 2015 699,280
Dec 2015 699,244
Jan 2016 700,808
Feb 2016 701,096
Mar 2016 702,424
Apr 2016 702,257
May 2016 703,137
Jun 2016 703,276
Jul 2016 703,880
Aug 2016 705,669
Sep 2016 707,246
Oct 2016 708,431
Nov 2016 710,716
Dec 2016 712,168
Jan 2017 710,975
Feb 2017 712,554
Mar 2017 713,746
Apr 2017 715,376
May 2017 716,701
Jun 2017 718,032
Jul 2017 718,809
Aug 2017 720,404
Sep 2017 721,772
Oct 2017 723,284
Nov 2017 724,213
Dec 2017 728,027
Jan 2018 727,518
Feb 2018 728,835
Mar 2018 729,689
Apr 2018 730,902
May 2018 732,020
Jun 2018 732,948
Jul 2018 734,049
Aug 2018 735,397
Sep 2018 736,424
Oct 2018 738,746
Nov 2018 739,531
Dec 2018 740,621
Jan 2019 741,895
Feb 2019 742,969
Mar 2019 744,595
Apr 2019 745,602
May 2019 745,651
Jun 2019 744,956
Jul 2019 747,254
Aug 2019 747,512
Sep 2019 747,873
Oct 2019 748,191
Nov 2019 749,508
Dec 2019 749,172
Jan 2020 751,098
Feb 2020 752,334
Mar 2020 752,810
Apr 2020 741,617
May 2020 740,451
Jun 2020 739,974
Jul 2020 741,975
Aug 2020 737,946
Sep 2020 738,117
Oct 2020 737,570
Nov 2020 735,960
Dec 2020 736,292
Jan 2021 737,763
Feb 2021 738,041
Mar 2021 740,106
Apr 2021 741,967
May 2021 748,541
Jun 2021 755,947
Jul 2021 761,472
Aug 2021 760,693
Sep 2021 761,911
Oct 2021 763,133
Nov 2021 765,509
Dec 2021 768,147
Jan 2022 769,773
Feb 2022 770,380
Mar 2022 772,619
Apr 2022 773,670
May 2022 774,632
Jun 2022 775,113
Jul 2022 777,594
Aug 2022 780,957
Sep 2022 779,285
Oct 2022 780,661
Nov 2022 782,239
Dec 2022 783,790


Between 2014 and 2020 the number of payrolled employees had generally been increasing each month. Prior to COVID, payrolled employees peaked at around 753,000 in March 2020. This was followed by a sharp decrease of around 11,000 employees (1.5%) to April 2020. Employee numbers remained around that level until April 2021.

Since April 2021 there has generally been an upward trend in the number of payrolled employees. December 2022 saw a third consecutive increase following a small decrease in September 2022 as well as a 2.0% increase in the number of payrolled employees over the year.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • 783,800 people were payrolled employees in December 2022, a 0.2% increase from the previous month and a 2.0% increase from December 2021.
  • in the UK, there were 29,898,200 payrolled employees at December 2022, an increase of 0.1% over the month and an increase of 2.3% over the year.
  • all regions of the UK increased over the year to December 2022, where changes ranged from a 3.6% increase in London to an increase of 1.8% in the North West. NI recorded a lower increase than the UK as a whole (2.0% and 2.3% respectively).
  • between March 2020 and December 2022, all regions of the UK recorded an increase in payrolled employees (an increase of 3.1% overall). Northern Ireland recorded the largest increase (4.1%) while Scotland recorded the lowest (2.5%).

3.4 Earnings (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Median measures the amount earned by the average employee, i.e. the level of earnings at which half the population are above and half the population are below.

Key findings

  • Median monthly pay increased by 0.3% (£7) over the month to December to £2,021 and was 6.3% (£119) higher than December 2021.
  • UK median monthly pay decreased by 0.3% (£6) over the month to December to £2,194 and increased by 7.8% (£158) over the year.

Figure 7: Median monthly pay increases over month in NI but decreases in the UK

Median Monthly Pay (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to December 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland UK
Jul 2014 1490 1598
Aug 2014 1488 1601
Sep 2014 1488 1601
Oct 2014 1494 1605
Nov 2014 1498 1608
Dec 2014 1514 1617
Jan 2015 1500 1620
Feb 2015 1494 1620
Mar 2015 1500 1618
Apr 2015 1499 1614
May 2015 1498 1615
Jun 2015 1491 1616
Jul 2015 1492 1620
Aug 2015 1488 1616
Sep 2015 1494 1618
Oct 2015 1496 1626
Nov 2015 1493 1630
Dec 2015 1497 1631
Jan 2016 1502 1638
Feb 2016 1508 1640
Mar 2016 1516 1646
Apr 2016 1516 1652
May 2016 1514 1652
Jun 2016 1517 1654
Jul 2016 1519 1659
Aug 2016 1526 1659
Sep 2016 1527 1664
Oct 2016 1523 1663
Nov 2016 1529 1666
Dec 2016 1528 1668
Jan 2017 1533 1668
Feb 2017 1534 1677
Mar 2017 1546 1686
Apr 2017 1541 1689
May 2017 1544 1691
Jun 2017 1556 1694
Jul 2017 1554 1693
Aug 2017 1560 1699
Sep 2017 1562 1704
Oct 2017 1564 1706
Nov 2017 1571 1713
Dec 2017 1576 1721
Jan 2018 1569 1724
Feb 2018 1589 1728
Mar 2018 1585 1730
Apr 2018 1591 1730
May 2018 1603 1750
Jun 2018 1612 1756
Jul 2018 1611 1751
Aug 2018 1618 1771
Sep 2018 1619 1761
Oct 2018 1629 1767
Nov 2018 1634 1778
Dec 2018 1632 1772
Jan 2019 1645 1782
Feb 2019 1688 1791
Mar 2019 1660 1801
Apr 2019 1668 1810
May 2019 1680 1817
Jun 2019 1678 1812
Jul 2019 1680 1819
Aug 2019 1682 1824
Sep 2019 1683 1819
Oct 2019 1690 1825
Nov 2019 1687 1831
Dec 2019 1671 1835
Jan 2020 1701 1849
Feb 2020 1710 1860
Mar 2020 1744 1846
Apr 2020 1656 1793
May 2020 1664 1801
Jun 2020 1716 1830
Jul 2020 1740 1859
Aug 2020 1748 1880
Sep 2020 1765 1897
Oct 2020 1775 1910
Nov 2020 1777 1915
Dec 2020 1782 1925
Jan 2021 1782 1927
Feb 2021 1792 1941
Mar 2021 1798 1949
Apr 2021 1815 1965
May 2021 1806 1968
Jun 2021 1835 1977
Jul 2021 1875 1979
Aug 2021 1824 1986
Sep 2021 1846 2003
Oct 2021 1854 2009
Nov 2021 1856 2020
Dec 2021 1902 2036
Jan 2022 1934 2046
Feb 2022 1917 2053
Mar 2022 1933 2076
Apr 2022 1937 2082
May 2022 1941 2093
Jun 2022 1958 2106
Jul 2022 1953 2110
Aug 2022 1978 2119
Sep 2022 1962 2141
Oct 2022 1979 2147
Nov 2022 2014 2200
Dec 2022 2021 2194


Median employee pay in NI and the UK was generally on an increasing trend between mid-2015 and early 2020. In NI a sharp increase in median pay of 2.0% was seen between February and March 2020 followed by a decrease of 5.0% between March and April 2020. In the UK there was a decrease of 2.9% in the UK between March and April 2020. This coincided with decreases in the number of paid employees between March and April.

From April 2020, median employee pay has shown an upward trend, however in recent months some volatility has been seen in the NI results. Latest earnings (£2,021) remain 15.9% higher than the pre-pandemic level in March 2020 (£1,744).

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • NI had a median monthly pay of £2,021 in December 2022, which was an increase of 0.3% on the previous month and an increase of 6.3% from December 2021.
  • UK had a median monthly pay of £2,194 in December 2022, which was a decrease of 0.3% on the previous month and an increase of 7.8% from December 2021.
  • NI had the smallest annual increase of the 12 regions. It has the lowest median earnings in the UK, while London has the highest median pay (£2,642).
  • Since March 2020, earnings in NI have increased by 15.9%, lowest of all the UK regions, and 3.0pps lower than the UK, which increased by 18.9%.


4. Economic inactivity

4.1 LFS Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The economic inactivity rate decreased over both the quarter and the year to 26.6%.
  • The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21.5%.

Figure 8: NI economic inactivity consistently above UK average

Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64), Sep-Nov 2007 to Sep-Nov 2022
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Sep-Nov 2007 28.9 23.1
Dec-Feb 2008 28.5 22.9
Mar-May 2008 27.9 22.9
Jun-Aug 2008 28.6 23.0
Sep-Nov 2008 29.6 22.9
Dec-Feb 2009 30.5 22.8
Mar-May 2009 31.8 23.0
Jun-Aug 2009 31.1 23.2
Sep-Nov 2009 29.7 23.4
Dec-Feb 2010 29.1 23.6
Mar-May 2010 28.9 23.4
Jun-Aug 2010 28.6 23.3
Sep-Nov 2010 29.1 23.5
Dec-Feb 2011 28.1 23.3
Mar-May 2011 26.8 23.4
Jun-Aug 2011 27.0 23.4
Sep-Nov 2011 27.2 23.2
Dec-Feb 2012 27.4 23.2
Mar-May 2012 27.4 23.0
Jun-Aug 2012 27.2 22.6
Sep-Nov 2012 27.0 22.5
Dec-Feb 2013 27.9 22.5
Mar-May 2013 27.7 22.6
Jun-Aug 2013 27.9 22.4
Sep-Nov 2013 27.1 22.3
Dec-Feb 2014 26.8 22.1
Mar-May 2014 26.9 22.0
Jun-Aug 2014 27.1 22.2
Sep-Nov 2014 27.8 22.3
Dec-Feb 2015 27.0 22.1
Mar-May 2015 27.7 22.2
Jun-Aug 2015 27.6 22.1
Sep-Nov 2015 26.6 21.9
Dec-Feb 2016 26.4 21.8
Mar-May 2016 26.7 21.7
Jun-Aug 2016 25.7 21.5
Sep-Nov 2016 26.4 21.7
Dec-Feb 2017 27.4 21.6
Mar-May 2017 27.4 21.5
Jun-Aug 2017 28.2 21.4
Sep-Nov 2017 28.0 21.2
Dec-Feb 2018 28.1 21.2
Mar-May 2018 27.4 21.0
Jun-Aug 2018 27.2 21.2
Sep-Nov 2018 27.5 21.0
Dec-Feb 2019 26.6 20.7
Mar-May 2019 25.9 20.9
Jun-Aug 2019 26.4 21.0
Sep-Nov 2019 25.7 20.6
Dec-Feb 2020 25.6 20.2
Mar-May 2020 27.4 20.8
Jun-Aug 2020 27.4 21.0
Sep-Nov 2020 28.4 21.0
Dec-Feb 2021 29.7 21.2
Mar-May 2021 29.6 21.4
Jun-Aug 2021 27.7 21.2
Sep-Nov 2021 29.4 21.3
Dec-Feb 2022 28.4 21.5
Mar-May 2022 28.0 21.1
Jun-Aug 2022 27.8 21.7
Sep-Nov 2022 26.6 21.5


Figure 8 shows that, over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in NI has been consistently higher than the UK average. Economic inactivity in NI peaked during this time-period in 2009 at almost 32%, compared to the lower peak in the UK rate of almost 24% at the beginning of 2010.

During the ten years to 2019, both the UK and NI economic inactivity rates were generally showing a downward trend, albeit the rate for NI has shown more variability than the UK. From the onset of the COVID pandemic, both UK and NI economic inactivity rates increased, again the rate for NI has shown more variability than the UK. Although both NI and UK rates remain higher than the pre-pandemic period (December-February 2020), by 1.0pps and 1.3pps respectively, NI has seen a decrease of 2.8pps over the year whilst the UK rate has increased by 0.2pps over the year.

The economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for September-November 2022 was estimated at 26.6%, which was:

  • a decrease of 1.2pps over the quarter (not statistically significant);
  • a decrease of 2.8pps over the year (statistically significant)

The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 595,000, which was:

  • down 12,000 from last quarter; and
  • down 27,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex included:

  • the male (aged 16 to 64) economic inactivity rate (21.9%) decreased by 5.4pps over the year; and
  • the female (aged 16 to 64) economic inactivity rate (31.2%) decreased by 0.1pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 26.6% was 5.1pps above the overall UK rate of 21.5%; and
  • the highest of the twelve UK regions.


5. Further Information

General Information

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), claimant count, redundancies counts, and HMRC PAYE statistics. The LMR also contains an overview from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in March, June, September and December. More information about the data sources can be found in the LMR Supplementary Document.

New Labour Market Report (LMR) format

The September 2022 LMR publication marked the first release in HTML format, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP). The content and format of the report and monthly tables have changed to make them more user friendly and interactive, enhancing accessibility, and increasing automation in their production. As the tables have changed, a mapping document has been created showing the relationship between the old and new tables.

In addition, the LMR, data tables and supplementary documents are now available on one webpage. Individual data source pages contain links directing users to the most recent data on the LMR publication page.

We welcome feedback from users on this new development (see Contacts).

Comparison between data sources

Although the broad concepts are similar across sources contained within this release, differences in reference periods, definitions, and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics. Additional information can be found in the LMR supplementary document, including comparisons between:

  • LFS unemployment and experimental claimant count
  • LFS employment and the number of paid employees from HMRC PAYE RTI
  • LFS employment and QES employee jobs
  • HMRC PAYE RTI and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
  • Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and HMRC PAYE RTI

More information is also available in the comparison of labour market data sources article by ONS.

Seasonal adjustment

All estimates discussed in this report are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar and allows comparison over months or quarters.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a sample survey. Estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability which means if we drew many samples, each would give a different result. The sampling variability of the Northern Ireland estimates can be found in Table 2.49 of the LFS monthly tables, published alongside this report on the NISRA website. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value.

Alternative release time

The NI Labour Market Report is released at 7am. This is an ‘alternative release time’ agreed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and differs from the standard 9.30am release time for the majority of statistical reports.

Labour Force Survey

Response rates

The total eligible sample for the July-September 2022 LFS consisted of 3,947 addresses (1,198 chosen at random from the Land and Property Services (LPS) list of domestic properties and 2,749 carried forward from the previous quarter). A random start, fixed interval sampling technique of the addresses, which are ordered by Council Area and Ward, is used. This ensures a proportional representation across the Council Areas in Northern Ireland. Only private household addresses were eligible and every selected address is interviewed on five successive occasions over five quarters. This means there is an 80% sample overlap between quarters. The achieved sample size has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Table 1 is updated on a quarterly basis – additional information can be found in the supplementary document.

Table 1: Response rates, July-September 2022

Statistic Figure
Fully and partially responding 2,544
Eligible sample 3,947
Response rate (%) 64.5%

LFS revisions

LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates. The population totals used for the latest LFS estimates use projected growth rates from RTI data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used for the LFS therefore does not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates etc. since June 2021 and hence levels estimates may be under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates will, however, be robust.

In June 2022, the LFS estimates were reweighted from January-March 2020 to January-March 2022 using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data. An overview of the impact of reweighting on the NI estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website. This webpage also contains the detail on two previous LFS reweightings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in October 2020 and July 2021.

LFS comparisons

Estimates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity are derived from the LFS. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates over separate three-month periods, commonly known as 3 month rolling averages. For example, estimates relating to September-November 2022 should be compared with the estimates for June-August 2022. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for August-October 2022, as the September and October data are included within both estimates. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the NI population over a three-month period, not for a single month period.

Suppression and shading

Estimates based on fewer than 3 events are suppressed to prevent disclosure. In tables, shading is used to draw attention to lower statistical quality/precision of estimates that are based on a smaller sample size. Shaded estimates still provide the best estimate of the size of a group but comparison across time or between groups with similar values should be avoided. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

Due to the small sample sizes and the effect this has on the precision of the figures, estimates for youth unemployment have not been included in this bulletin this month.

Claimant Count

Experimental claimant count

The measure is categorised as experimental as the statistics are in the testing phase and not yet fully developed. ONS have produced a useful Guide to Experimental Statistics, and an FAQ document explaining the difference between the previous measure and this experimental measure is available on the changes to the claimant count page.

Claimant count revisions

Seasonally adjusted estimates are revised on a regular basis. Each month the previous estimate is revised in line with the current seasonal adjustment model, giving the best estimate of change for the latest period.

Claimant count undercount correction note

A number of claims across the UK to the UC element of the Claimant Count were coded to incorrect locations for data relating to December 2018 to November 2019. This has been corrected for December 2019 onwards, but previous periods remain affected. The impact of the revision on NI for December 2019 was an increase of fewer than 1,000 cases.

Percentage of workforce

The number of claimants as a percentage of workforce jobs plus claimants. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs, self-employment jobs, HM Forces, and government-supported trainees. This measure is only available at the NI level.

Redundancies

To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the NISRA website.

HMRC PAYE Real Time Information

Age breakdowns are published in January, April, July and October, and industry sector breakdowns published in February, May, August and November. Data are subject to revisions.

Further information on UK monthly pay, UK pay distribution, methodology, data source, collection, and coverage of PAYE RTI data, as well as information on imputation and revisions can be found on the Earnings and employment from PAYE page.


The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for their co-operation in agreeing to take part in the surveys and for facilitating the collection of the relevant data.


6. Contacts

For further information contact:

Labour Force Survey, Claimant Count, and Redundancies

Mark McFetridge
Email:

HMRC PAYE

Ashleigh Warwick
Email:


Web: Labour Market and Social Welfare
Twitter: NISRA

National Statistics logo

7. National Statistics Status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics were designated as National Statistics in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for statistics. A compliance check in March 2020 recommended the continued designation of the report as a National Statistic. These statistics were considered as part of a wider assessment of the UK employment and jobs statistics.

Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

  • New HTML Labour Market Report and monthly tables, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP) to enhance usability and accessibility (in line with regulations) and increase automation of production;
  • Providing more context to results by setting recent changes within context of longer term trends;
  • Removed pre-release access to enhance trustworthiness, and brought forward the publication date as a result;
  • Improved timeliness of quarterly labour force survey tables (ranging from 1 week to 3 months) by incorporating quarterly tables in the main Labour Market Report Publication;
  • Improved quality of the LFS data by boosting the sample size and improving precision around headline estimates (Please note, sample sizes decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to difficulty of collecting survey information from households, but have since returned to pre-pandemic levels);
  • Reviewed and updated quality protocols for release for LFS data;
  • Improved accessibility of labour market statistics by changing the release dates of statistics to avoid public holidays;
  • Included additional administrative sources of labour market data to provide a fuller picture of the labour market;
  • Changed the timing of release in line with change in ONS release practices in response to COVID-19 where the exemption has now been transferred to an alternative release time of 7am as agreed by the OSR.