All tables associated with this report can be downloaded from the NISRA website.

1. Overview

1.1 Key points

The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in January 2024 was 799,600, an increase of 0.1% over the month and an increase of 1.9% over the year.

Employment section 3.3
Earnings from HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,130 in January 2024, a decrease of £9 (0.4%) over the month and an increase of £94 (4.6%) over the year.

Employment section 3.4
In January 2024, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 35,800 (3.7% of the workforce), a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month’s revised figure. The January 2024 claimant count remains 19.8% higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

Unemployment section 2.2
NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 50 redundancies occurred in January 2024. Over the year February 2023 to January 2024, 2,380 redundancies were confirmed. There were 140 proposed redundancies in January 2024, taking the annual total to 4,000.

Unemployment section 2.3
The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people age 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period October-December 2023 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.6%. This was an increase of 0.4 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and an increase of 0.1pps over the year.

Unemployment section 2.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased by 0.6pps over the quarter and increased by 0.4pps over the year to 71.3%.

Employment section 3.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased by 1.1pps over the quarter and decreased by 0.4pps over the year to 26.8%.

Economic inactivity section 4.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The total number of weekly hours worked in NI was estimated at 27.6 million hours, an increase of 0.7% on the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.7% on the equivalent period last year.

Employment section 3.2

1.2 Commentary

Starting with today’s release, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have reintroduced estimates taken from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), replacing the experimental estimates they have been publishing since October 2023.

In conjunction with the reintroduction of UK estimates taken from the LFS, today’s publication contains the first release of reweighted LFS data incorporating the latest estimates of the size and composition of the UK population, improving the representativeness of LFS estimates.

For further information, please see section 1.3 - Things users need to know.

The latest Labour Market release shows that over the year both payrolled employee numbers and earnings have increased. In addition, the Labour Force Survey employment and economic inactivity rates have moved in a favourable direction when compared to one year ago, while the unemployment rate has increased slightly (by 0.1pps).

The latest HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.1% over the month and by 1.9% over the year. Payrolled earnings decreased by 0.4% over the month and were 4.6% higher than January 2023.

Households reported, via the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a 0.4pps increase in the employment rate over the year to October-December 2023, to 71.3%, while the unemployment rate also increased, slightly, over the year (by 0.1pps to 2.6%). There was a decrease of 0.4pps over the year to October-December 2023 in the economic inactivity rate, to 26.8%. None of these annual changes were statistically significant.

The total number of hours worked in October-December 2023 decreased by 0.7% over the year, to 27.6 million hours per week. This is 5.3% below the pre-pandemic position recorded in October-December 2019.

In addition, the Department was notified of 50 confirmed redundancies in January 2024, which brought the rolling twelve-month total of confirmed redundancies to 2,380. This was almost two and a half times the figure for the previous year (970). There were also 140 proposed redundancies reported to the Department in January 2024, bringing the annual total of proposed redundancies to 4,000, approximately double the figure for the previous year (1,960). Although the rolling twelve-month totals of proposed and confirmed redundancies are considerably higher than the previous year, they are similar to the levels seen in the decade preceding the pandemic.

Finally, there was a small decrease of 0.4% in the claimant count estimate over the month to January 2024 from the revised figure for December 2023. The claimant count rate at January 2024 was 3.7% - the twenty second consecutive month that this rate has been within the range 3.6% to 3.8%.

1.3 Things users need to know

Reintroduction of UK Labour Force Survey estimates

Starting with today’s release, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have reintroduced estimates taken from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), replacing the experimental estimates they have been publishing since October 2023. In the period from October 23 to January 24, NISRA continued to produce indicators based on the LFS as response rates to the Northern Ireland LFS remained robust and NISRA considered that the survey in Northern Ireland continued to provide the best possible indicators for the local labour market. The reintroduction of UK LFS estimates will allow timely comparisons with UK regions and the UK as a whole to be included in this report.

Labour Force Survey reweighting

In conjunction with the reintroduction of UK estimates taken from the LFS, today’s publication contains the first release of reweighted LFS data incorporating the latest estimates of the size and composition of the UK population, improving the representativeness of LFS estimates. More information on this reweighting can be accessed through the Impact of reweighting on Labour Force Survey key indicators: 2024 paper released by ONS on the 5th February 2024. Similar to the impact the reweighting has had for the UK as a whole, the reweighting has decreased the NI employment rate and increased the economic inactivity rate. The changes to the unemployment rate are more variable with the reweighting having caused some periods to increase while others have decreased.

Labour Market Statistics – Transformation in Northern Ireland

NISRA aims to provide the most accurate and up-to-date statistics about the local labour market. To achieve this, a number of initiatives are being taken forward including greater use of administrative data sources such as HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Pay As You Earn data and the transformation of the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

Most of our labour market statistics will continue to be obtained from surveys completed by either households or businesses. Using surveys to collect labour market statistics is an effective and proven approach that delivers trusted results. In the next two years, NISRA are working towards transforming how we deliver key labour market surveys.

The transformation of the Labour Force Survey focuses on improving the design of the LFS and quality of its outputs. It will use enhanced address registers, improved sampling, and transform to a respondent led, online first approach supported by telephone collection and “knock to nudge” processes. To account for this, the transformation has also focused on a respondent-centred design of questions.

More details on the transformation plan will be published soon.

The goal of these initiatives is to reduce the time and effort needed to collect survey data, to improve overall response and to provide more accurate and relevant statistics.

1.4 Context

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI.

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 (Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page) showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.


2. Unemployment

2.1 Labour Force Survey unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The NI unemployment rate for October-December 2023 increased over both the quarter and the year to 2.6%.
  • The most recent UK unemployment rate for October-December 2023 was estimated at 3.8%.

Figure 1: The latest NI unemployment rate remains historically low

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over), Oct-Dec 2008 to Oct-Dec 2023
Chart
Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Oct-Dec 2008 5.2 6.4
Jan-Mar 2009 6.2 7.1
Apr-Jun 2009 6.5 7.8
Jul-Sep 2009 7.0 7.8
Oct-Dec 2009 5.9 7.8
Jan-Mar 2010 6.9 8.0
Apr-Jun 2010 6.6 7.9
Jul-Sep 2010 6.9 7.8
Oct-Dec 2010 7.9 7.9
Jan-Mar 2011 7.3 7.8
Apr-Jun 2011 7.3 7.9
Jul-Sep 2011 7.3 8.3
Oct-Dec 2011 7.0 8.4
Jan-Mar 2012 6.7 8.2
Apr-Jun 2012 7.7 8.0
Jul-Sep 2012 7.7 7.9
Oct-Dec 2012 7.6 7.8
Jan-Mar 2013 8.0 7.9
Apr-Jun 2013 7.3 7.8
Jul-Sep 2013 7.4 7.6
Oct-Dec 2013 7.3 7.2
Jan-Mar 2014 7.1 6.8
Apr-Jun 2014 6.5 6.3
Jul-Sep 2014 6.2 6.0
Oct-Dec 2014 5.8 5.7
Jan-Mar 2015 6.2 5.6
Apr-Jun 2015 6.3 5.7
Jul-Sep 2015 6.0 5.4
Oct-Dec 2015 5.9 5.1
Jan-Mar 2016 6.1 5.1
Apr-Jun 2016 5.8 5.0
Jul-Sep 2016 5.6 4.9
Oct-Dec 2016 5.4 4.8
Jan-Mar 2017 5.3 4.6
Apr-Jun 2017 5.1 4.5
Jul-Sep 2017 4.0 4.3
Oct-Dec 2017 4.1 4.4
Jan-Mar 2018 3.0 4.3
Apr-Jun 2018 3.7 4.1
Jul-Sep 2018 3.8 4.2
Oct-Dec 2018 3.8 4.1
Jan-Mar 2019 2.9 3.9
Apr-Jun 2019 3.1 4.0
Jul-Sep 2019 2.5 3.9
Oct-Dec 2019 2.4 3.9
Jan-Mar 2020 2.5 4.1
Apr-Jun 2020 2.8 4.2
Jul-Sep 2020 3.4 5.0
Oct-Dec 2020 3.8 5.3
Jan-Mar 2021 4.2 5.1
Apr-Jun 2021 4.3 4.8
Jul-Sep 2021 4.3 4.4
Oct-Dec 2021 3.2 4.2
Jan-Mar 2022 2.6 3.9
Apr-Jun 2022 2.7 3.9
Jul-Sep 2022 3.3 3.8
Oct-Dec 2022 2.5 3.9
Jan-Mar 2023 2.4 4.0
Apr-Jun 2023 2.6 4.2
Jul-Sep 2023 2.2 4.1
Oct-Dec 2023 2.6 3.8


Figure 1 shows the unemployment rates for NI and the UK over the last 15 years. During this period, the UK unemployment rate peaked at 8.4% in late-2011 while the NI unemployment rate peaked at 8.0% in early-2013. Following these peaks, both unemployment rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019. After rises during the early part of the pandemic, both rates have since decreased: the UK recorded a low point of 3.8% in July-September 2022, whilst the NI rate reached 2.2% in July-September 2023. Over the most recent year to October-December 2023 the NI unemployment rate increased by 0.1pps to 2.6% while the UK unemployment rate was practically unchanged at 3.8%.

The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period October-December 2023 was estimated at 2.6%. This was:

  • an increase of 0.4pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • an increase of 0.1pps over the year (not statistically significant).

The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 23,000, which was:

  • up 4,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 1,000 from the same period last year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 2.6% was 1.3pps below the most recent UK rate of 3.8%; and
  • the lowest of the twelve UK regions.

2.2 Claimant count (experimental)

Claimant Count (experimental) consists of all people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) plus those Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Some claimants are wholly unemployed and seeking work, while others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support.

Key findings

  • Over the month to January 2024, the NI claimant count decreased by 0.4% to 35,800.
  • In January 2024, 3.7% of the NI workforce were recorded on the claimant count.

Figure 2: The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate has remained relatively stable since April 2022

NI seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, January 2009 to January 2024
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Undercount Rate
Jan 2009 4.3
Feb 2009 4.7
Mar 2009 5.0
Apr 2009 5.2
May 2009 5.4
Jun 2009 5.6
Jul 2009 5.7
Aug 2009 5.8
Sep 2009 5.9
Oct 2009 6.0
Nov 2009 6.0
Dec 2009 6.1
Jan 2010 6.1
Feb 2010 6.1
Mar 2010 6.1
Apr 2010 6.1
May 2010 6.1
Jun 2010 6.2
Jul 2010 6.2
Aug 2010 6.3
Sep 2010 6.4
Oct 2010 6.4
Nov 2010 6.4
Dec 2010 6.4
Jan 2011 6.4
Feb 2011 6.5
Mar 2011 6.5
Apr 2011 6.5
May 2011 6.5
Jun 2011 6.6
Jul 2011 6.7
Aug 2011 6.7
Sep 2011 6.7
Oct 2011 6.7
Nov 2011 6.7
Dec 2011 6.7
Jan 2012 6.9
Feb 2012 6.9
Mar 2012 6.9
Apr 2012 7.0
May 2012 7.0
Jun 2012 7.1
Jul 2012 7.2
Aug 2012 7.1
Sep 2012 7.2
Oct 2012 7.2
Nov 2012 7.2
Dec 2012 7.3
Jan 2013 7.2
Feb 2013 7.2
Mar 2013 7.2
Apr 2013 7.2
May 2013 7.1
Jun 2013 7.0
Jul 2013 7.0
Aug 2013 7.0
Sep 2013 6.9
Oct 2013 6.8
Nov 2013 6.7
Dec 2013 6.6
Jan 2014 6.5
Feb 2014 6.4
Mar 2014 6.3
Apr 2014 6.2
May 2014 6.1
Jun 2014 6.0
Jul 2014 5.8
Aug 2014 5.8
Sep 2014 5.8
Oct 2014 5.7
Nov 2014 5.6
Dec 2014 5.5
Jan 2015 5.4
Feb 2015 5.2
Mar 2015 5.0
Apr 2015 4.9
May 2015 4.8
Jun 2015 4.8
Jul 2015 4.7
Aug 2015 4.6
Sep 2015 4.5
Oct 2015 4.4
Nov 2015 4.4
Dec 2015 4.3
Jan 2016 4.2
Feb 2016 4.2
Mar 2016 4.2
Apr 2016 4.1
May 2016 4.0
Jun 2016 4.0
Jul 2016 3.9
Aug 2016 3.8
Sep 2016 3.8
Oct 2016 3.7
Nov 2016 3.6
Dec 2016 3.6
Jan 2017 3.5
Feb 2017 3.5
Mar 2017 3.4
Apr 2017 3.4
May 2017 3.4
Jun 2017 3.3
Jul 2017 3.3
Aug 2017 3.3
Sep 2017 3.2
Oct 2017 3.2
Nov 2017 3.1
Dec 2017 3.2
Jan 2018 3.1
Feb 2018 3.2
Mar 2018 3.1
Apr 2018 3.1
May 2018 3.1
Jun 2018 3.1
Jul 2018 3.0
Aug 2018 3.0
Sep 2018 3.1
Oct 2018 3.1
Nov 2018 3.2
Dec 2018 3.2
Jan 2019 3.1
Feb 2019 3.1
Mar 2019 3.1
Apr 2019 3.1
May 2019 3.1
Jun 2019 3.1
Jul 2019 3.1
Aug 2019 3.0
Sep 2019 3.1
Oct 2019 3.2
Nov 2019 3.2
Dec 2019 3.2
Jan 2020 3.0
Feb 2020 3.0
Mar 2020 3.0
Apr 2020 5.7
May 2020 6.5
Jun 2020 6.3
Jul 2020 6.3
Aug 2020 6.3
Sep 2020 6.1
Oct 2020 6.0
Nov 2020 6.0
Dec 2020 5.9
Jan 2021 5.9
Feb 2021 6.1
Mar 2021 6.0
Apr 2021 6.0
May 2021 5.7
Jun 2021 5.4
Jul 2021 5.3
Aug 2021 5.1
Sep 2021 5.0
Oct 2021 4.9
Nov 2021 4.6
Dec 2021 4.4
Jan 2022 4.1
Feb 2022 4.0
Mar 2022 3.9
Apr 2022 3.8
May 2022 3.7
Jun 2022 3.7
Jul 2022 3.7
Aug 2022 3.6
Sep 2022 3.7
Oct 2022 3.7
Nov 2022 3.7
Dec 2022 3.7
Jan 2023 3.7
Feb 2023 3.6
Mar 2023 3.7
Apr 2023 3.8
May 2023 3.7
Jun 2023 3.7
Jul 2023 3.8
Aug 2023 3.8
Sep 2023 3.8
Oct 2023 3.8
Nov 2023 3.7
Dec 2023 3.7
Jan 2024 3.7


In January 2024, 35,800 people were recorded on the NI Claimant Count. This is 44.2% less than the recent peak in May 2020 and 19.8% more than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020. The increases in the claimant count between March 2020 and May 2020 can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced due to COVID, resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold. This is the twenty-second month where the claimant count rate was in the 3.6% to 3.8% range.

The NI seasonally adjusted claimant count was 35,800 (3.7% of the workforce) in January 2024, representing:

  • a decrease of 100 (0.4%) over the month
  • an increase of 0.1% (less than 100) over the year, and
  • an increase of 5,900 (19.8%) since March 2020.

Changes by sex:

  • a decrease of 0.3% in males and a decrease of 0.5% in females over the month, and
  • a decrease of 5.3% in males and an increase of 8.3% in females over the year.

Changes by age:

  • Over the year, there has been a 1.1% decrease in claimants aged 16 to 24, and an increase of 3.4% in claimants aged 25 to 49. The number of claimants aged 50 and over has decreased by 4.9% over the year.
  • Compared to the pre-pandemic counts in March 2020, there have been increases in claimants aged 25 to 49 (+27.0%) and aged 50 and over (+4.7%). The number of claimants aged 16 to 24 has decreased by 2.0% over this period.

Changes by Local Government District:

  • Over the year, the largest increases were seen in Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon (+5.4%) and Lisburn and Castlereagh (+2.4%).
  • The largest decreases over the year were seen in Mid and East Antrim and Newry, Mourne and Down (both -3.7%).

UK regional comparison:

  • The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 0.9% over the month to 1,579,200 (4.0% of the workforce).
  • The UK count is 41.5% below the recent peak in August 2020 and 28.4% above the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

2.3 Redundancies

Redundancies: Companies must inform the Department of (a) impending redundancies of 20 or more employees and (b) subsequent confirmed redundancies. Since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Key findings

  • 50 redundancies were confirmed in January 2024, taking the annual total to 2,380, which was almost two and a half times the figure for the previous year (970).
  • There were 140 proposed redundancies in January 2024, taking the annual total to 4,000, which was approximately double the previous year (1,960).

Figure 3: Latest annual totals of proposed and confirmed redundancies are considerably higher than the previous year

NI confirmed and proposed redundancies, Annual totals, Feb 2008-Jan 2009 to Feb 2023-Jan 2024
Chart
Table
Year Proposed Confirmed
2008/09 3,530 2,970
2009/10 5,200 4,430
2010/11 2,710 2,020
2011/12 2,500 1,870
2012/13 4,140 3,450
2013/14 2,190 2,030
2014/15 4,470 2,280
2015/16 4,150 1,930
2016/17 3,750 3,600
2017/18 2,910 1,710
2018/19 3,390 2,580
2019/20 4,410 3,050
2020/21 10,640 5,380
2021/22 1,930 2,450
2022/23 1,960 970
2023/24 4,000 2,380


Redundancy notification data generally shows a high degree of correlation between proposed and confirmed redundancies when grouped by year. The graph above shows that, generally the number of proposed redundancies is higher than confirmed redundancies indicating that not all proposed redundancies take place.

The January 2024 total of proposed redundancies of 4,000 is approximately double the equivalent total for the preceding year and similar to the levels seen in the decade preceding the pandemic.

The January 2024 total of confirmed redundancies (50) was below the monthly averages for the previous few years (240 in 2021, 60 in 2022 and 220 in 2023). The rolling twelve-month total (2,380) is lower than in previous months, but remains similar to levels seen before the pandemic.

Confirmed redundancies

During January 2024, the Department was notified of:

  • 50 confirmed redundancies, lower than the monthly average (220) during 2023.

Over the latest twelve month period there were:

  • 2,380 confirmed redundancies, which was almost two and a half times the figure for the previous year (970).
  • 490 confirmed redundancies (20.5%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 410 confirmed redundancies (17.3%) in the administrative and support service activities sector.
  • 360 confirmed redundancies (15.2%) in the financial and insurance activities sector.

Proposed redundancies

During January 2024, the Department was notified of:

  • 140 proposed redundancies.

Over the last twelve months, to the end of January 2024, there were:

  • 4,000 proposed redundancies, which was approximately double the figure for the previous year (1,960).
  • 780 proposed redundancies (19.5%) in the education sector.
  • 540 proposed redundancies (13.6%) in the financial and insurance activities sector.
  • 510 proposed redundancies (12.8%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.


3. Employment

3.1 LFS employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The NI employment rate for October-December 2023 increased over both the quarter and year to 71.3%.
  • The most recent UK employment rate for October-December 2023 was estimated at 75.0%.

Figure 4: Similar trend in NI and UK employment rates over the last 15 years

Seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64), Oct-Dec 2008 to Oct-Dec 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Oct-Dec 2008 66.8 72.2
Jan-Mar 2009 64.8 71.7
Apr-Jun 2009 64.0 70.8
Jul-Sep 2009 64.5 70.6
Oct-Dec 2009 65.6 70.6
Jan-Mar 2010 65.9 70.2
Apr-Jun 2010 66.3 70.4
Jul-Sep 2010 66.2 70.7
Oct-Dec 2010 65.9 70.4
Jan-Mar 2011 66.9 70.5
Apr-Jun 2011 67.7 70.5
Jul-Sep 2011 67.3 70.1
Oct-Dec 2011 67.6 70.2
Jan-Mar 2012 67.4 70.4
Apr-Jun 2012 67.0 70.9
Jul-Sep 2012 67.3 71.1
Oct-Dec 2012 67.1 71.3
Jan-Mar 2013 66.4 71.1
Apr-Jun 2013 66.3 71.3
Jul-Sep 2013 67.0 71.6
Oct-Dec 2013 67.6 71.9
Jan-Mar 2014 67.7 72.3
Apr-Jun 2014 68.3 72.7
Jul-Sep 2014 68.4 72.9
Oct-Dec 2014 67.7 73.1
Jan-Mar 2015 68.2 73.3
Apr-Jun 2015 67.8 73.2
Jul-Sep 2015 67.9 73.6
Oct-Dec 2015 68.7 73.9
Jan-Mar 2016 69.2 73.9
Apr-Jun 2016 69.2 74.2
Jul-Sep 2016 70.1 74.2
Oct-Dec 2016 69.8 74.3
Jan-Mar 2017 68.4 74.5
Apr-Jun 2017 69.4 74.8
Jul-Sep 2017 68.3 74.7
Oct-Dec 2017 68.6 74.9
Jan-Mar 2018 69.8 75.3
Apr-Jun 2018 69.6 75.2
Jul-Sep 2018 69.4 75.2
Oct-Dec 2018 70.3 75.5
Jan-Mar 2019 71.3 75.7
Apr-Jun 2019 72.2 75.7
Jul-Sep 2019 72.3 75.7
Oct-Dec 2019 72.4 76.1
Jan-Mar 2020 71.8 75.9
Apr-Jun 2020 69.9 75.3
Jul-Sep 2020 69.9 74.5
Oct-Dec 2020 68.2 74.2
Jan-Mar 2021 67.9 74.2
Apr-Jun 2021 68.7 74.6
Jul-Sep 2021 68.1 74.9
Oct-Dec 2021 68.8 75.0
Jan-Mar 2022 70.6 75.1
Apr-Jun 2022 69.7 75.0
Jul-Sep 2022 69.2 75.0
Oct-Dec 2022 70.9 75.2
Jan-Mar 2023 70.9 75.3
Apr-Jun 2023 70.4 75.2
Jul-Sep 2023 70.7 74.8
Oct-Dec 2023 71.3 75.0


Figure 4 shows that, over the last 15 years, the NI employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in NI between 2019 and 2021 was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. The most recent NI employment rate (71.3%) was the highest rate since January-March 2020, although it remains 1.0pps below the pre-pandemic rate of 72.4% recorded in October-December 2019.

The most recent NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period October-December 2023 was estimated at 71.3%. This was:

  • an increase of 0.6pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • an increase of 0.4pps over the year (not statistically significant);

The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 874,000, which was:

  • up 12,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 6,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) showed that:

  • the male employment rate (75.5%) increased by 0.9pps over the year; and
  • the female employment rate (67.2%) decreased by 0.1pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 71.3% was 3.7pps below the most recent UK rate of 75.0%.
  • the second lowest of the twelve UK regions.

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Self-employment:

  • In October-December 2023, there were 108,000 self-employed, an increase of 8,000 (+8.3%) on a year ago, and 26,000 lower (-19.3%) than the pre-pandemic figure in October-December 2019.
  • The proportion who were self-employed (12.4%) remains below the pre-pandemic proportion (15.3% recorded in October-December 2019).

Employment by Age:

  • In October-December 2023, those aged 25 to 34 had the highest employment rate (81.7%), whilst those aged 16 to 24 had the lowest (53.9%). These rates are similar to the pre-pandemic rates in October-December 2019 (82.2% and 55.7% respectively).

3.2 Total weekly hours

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Key findings

  • The total number of weekly hours worked in October-December 2023 was estimated at 27.6 million hours per week.
  • This was an increase of 0.7% on the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.7% on the same period last year.

Figure 5: Hours worked are lower than pre-pandemic levels

Total weekly hours worked (Age 16 and over), Oct-Dec 2008 to Oct-Dec 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Total weekly hours
Oct-Dec 2008 26.1
Jan-Mar 2009 25.7
Apr-Jun 2009 25.8
Jul-Sep 2009 24.3
Oct-Dec 2009 25.4
Jan-Mar 2010 25.8
Apr-Jun 2010 26.2
Jul-Sep 2010 24.5
Oct-Dec 2010 24.7
Jan-Mar 2011 26.7
Apr-Jun 2011 26.6
Jul-Sep 2011 25.3
Oct-Dec 2011 25.3
Jan-Mar 2012 26.5
Apr-Jun 2012 26.4
Jul-Sep 2012 26.1
Oct-Dec 2012 26.2
Jan-Mar 2013 26.6
Apr-Jun 2013 26.7
Jul-Sep 2013 26.5
Oct-Dec 2013 26.4
Jan-Mar 2014 27.2
Apr-Jun 2014 27.6
Jul-Sep 2014 27.2
Oct-Dec 2014 27.1
Jan-Mar 2015 27.8
Apr-Jun 2015 27.1
Jul-Sep 2015 26.1
Oct-Dec 2015 25.9
Jan-Mar 2016 27.5
Apr-Jun 2016 28.4
Jul-Sep 2016 26.5
Oct-Dec 2016 27.5
Jan-Mar 2017 28.0
Apr-Jun 2017 28.0
Jul-Sep 2017 26.7
Oct-Dec 2017 27.6
Jan-Mar 2018 28.3
Apr-Jun 2018 28.8
Jul-Sep 2018 27.6
Oct-Dec 2018 28.3
Jan-Mar 2019 29.3
Apr-Jun 2019 29.6
Jul-Sep 2019 28.9
Oct-Dec 2019 29.1
Jan-Mar 2020 28.5
Apr-Jun 2020 22.9
Jul-Sep 2020 25.4
Oct-Dec 2020 24.6
Jan-Mar 2021 25.1
Apr-Jun 2021 26.6
Jul-Sep 2021 26.1
Oct-Dec 2021 26.3
Jan-Mar 2022 28.0
Apr-Jun 2022 27.8
Jul-Sep 2022 26.5
Oct-Dec 2022 27.8
Jan-Mar 2023 28.5
Apr-Jun 2023 28.2
Jul-Sep 2023 27.4
Oct-Dec 2023 27.6


Figure 5 illustrates that, like many labour market indicators, total weekly hours worked shows a seasonal pattern. Outside of these seasonal variations, a trend of increasing weekly hours worked can be seen between 2009 and the end of 2019, prior to a sharp fall between January-March 2020 and April-June 2020. From early-2021 onwards, the increasing trend returned at a steeper rate than before the pandemic. Hours worked in October-December 2023 remained 6.9% below the peak of 29.6 million hours in April-June 2019.

The total number of weekly hours worked in NI in October-December 2023 was estimated at 27.6 million hours, this was:

  • an increase of 0.2 million hours (0.7%) on the previous quarter;
  • a decrease of 0.2 million hours (0.7%) from the same period last year (not statistically significant); and
  • 1.5 million hours, or 5.3%, below the pre-pandemic (October-December 2019) figure.

The average number of weekly hours worked in October-December 2023 was estimated at 36.2 hours for those in full-time employment, and at 16.4 hours for those in part-time employment (for main jobs only, any second jobs are excluded). By sex:

  • for those in full-time employment, the average weekly hours worked for males was 38.1 hours, whereas for females it was 33.2 hours.
  • for those in part-time employment, the average weekly hours worked for males was 15.9 hours, whereas for females it was 16.6 hours.

3.3 Employees (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Payrolled employee counts (experimental) from the HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include those who are self-employed. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. As employees who were “furloughed” as part of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme programme should still have had their payments reported through this system, they should feature in these data.

Key findings

  • The number of payrolled employees in NI increased by 0.1% over the month and increased by 1.9% over the year to January 2024.
  • In the UK, the number of payrolled employees increased by 0.2% over the month and increased by 1.4% over the year to January 2024.

Figure 6: Number of payrolled employees increased over the month

NI payrolled employees (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to January 2024
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland
Jul 2014 674,102
Aug 2014 675,773
Sep 2014 676,940
Oct 2014 678,058
Nov 2014 679,524
Dec 2014 679,527
Jan 2015 684,256
Feb 2015 686,012
Mar 2015 687,704
Apr 2015 690,548
May 2015 691,452
Jun 2015 693,792
Jul 2015 695,324
Aug 2015 696,843
Sep 2015 699,465
Oct 2015 699,862
Nov 2015 700,589
Dec 2015 700,667
Jan 2016 702,172
Feb 2016 702,578
Mar 2016 703,840
Apr 2016 703,927
May 2016 704,693
Jun 2016 704,778
Jul 2016 705,262
Aug 2016 706,267
Sep 2016 707,914
Oct 2016 709,109
Nov 2016 711,453
Dec 2016 712,862
Jan 2017 711,466
Feb 2017 713,100
Mar 2017 714,335
Apr 2017 716,010
May 2017 717,527
Jun 2017 718,962
Jul 2017 719,409
Aug 2017 721,528
Sep 2017 723,037
Oct 2017 724,210
Nov 2017 725,337
Dec 2017 729,073
Jan 2018 728,401
Feb 2018 729,782
Mar 2018 730,309
Apr 2018 732,088
May 2018 733,121
Jun 2018 733,892
Jul 2018 734,993
Aug 2018 736,652
Sep 2018 738,035
Oct 2018 739,890
Nov 2018 740,623
Dec 2018 741,730
Jan 2019 742,673
Feb 2019 743,799
Mar 2019 745,159
Apr 2019 746,727
May 2019 746,606
Jun 2019 745,557
Jul 2019 747,745
Aug 2019 747,925
Sep 2019 748,421
Oct 2019 748,927
Nov 2019 750,664
Dec 2019 750,417
Jan 2020 752,311
Feb 2020 753,550
Mar 2020 753,759
Apr 2020 743,211
May 2020 742,284
Jun 2020 741,775
Jul 2020 742,921
Aug 2020 738,156
Sep 2020 738,547
Oct 2020 737,745
Nov 2020 736,472
Dec 2020 736,749
Jan 2021 738,808
Feb 2021 739,011
Mar 2021 740,328
Apr 2021 742,209
May 2021 748,469
Jun 2021 755,591
Jul 2021 761,119
Aug 2021 760,524
Sep 2021 761,520
Oct 2021 762,673
Nov 2021 765,569
Dec 2021 767,933
Jan 2022 770,040
Feb 2022 771,019
Mar 2022 772,541
Apr 2022 775,189
May 2022 776,563
Jun 2022 776,474
Jul 2022 778,316
Aug 2022 781,140
Sep 2022 780,401
Oct 2022 781,433
Nov 2022 782,994
Dec 2022 784,563
Jan 2023 784,466
Feb 2023 785,960
Mar 2023 788,797
Apr 2023 787,759
May 2023 788,546
Jun 2023 789,095
Jul 2023 789,868
Aug 2023 791,563
Sep 2023 794,253
Oct 2023 796,936
Nov 2023 797,851
Dec 2023 798,873
Jan 2024 799,621


Please note:

  1. The flash estimate for the latest period is based on early data and is therefore more likely to be subject to revisions.

Between 2014 and 2020, the number of payrolled employees had generally been increasing each month, peaking at around 754,000 in March 2020. This was followed by a decrease of almost 11,000 employees (1.4%) to April 2020. Employee numbers then remained at a similar level until April 2021 when they returned to a general upward trend once again. With increases recorded for nine consecutive months, the most recent employee numbers are the highest on record.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • 799,600 people were payrolled employees in January 2024, a 0.1% increase from the previous month and a 1.9% increase over the year.
  • in the UK, there were 30,357,800 payrolled employees in January 2024, an increase of 0.2% over the month and an increase of 1.4% over the year.
  • all regions of the UK increased over the year to January 2024, where changes ranged from an increase of 1.0% in Yorkshire and the Humber to an increase of 1.9% in Northern Ireland.
  • between March 2020 and January 2024, all regions of the UK recorded an increase in payrolled employees (4.7% overall). Northern Ireland recorded the largest increase (6.1%) while Scotland recorded the lowest (3.6%).

3.4 Earnings (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Median measures the amount earned by the average employee, i.e. the level of earnings at which half the population are above and half the population are below.

Key findings

  • Median monthly pay in NI decreased by 0.4% (£9) over the month to £2,130 in January 2024 and increased by 4.6% (£94) over the year.
  • UK median monthly pay increased by 0.4% (£10) over the month to £2,334 in January 2024 and increased by 6.4% (£141) over the year.

Figure 7: Over the month median monthly pay decreased in NI and increased in the UK

Median Monthly Pay (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to January 2024
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland UK
Jul 2014 1490 1598
Aug 2014 1488 1601
Sep 2014 1488 1601
Oct 2014 1494 1605
Nov 2014 1498 1608
Dec 2014 1514 1617
Jan 2015 1500 1620
Feb 2015 1495 1620
Mar 2015 1501 1618
Apr 2015 1500 1614
May 2015 1498 1615
Jun 2015 1492 1616
Jul 2015 1493 1620
Aug 2015 1488 1616
Sep 2015 1494 1618
Oct 2015 1497 1626
Nov 2015 1494 1630
Dec 2015 1497 1631
Jan 2016 1502 1638
Feb 2016 1508 1640
Mar 2016 1516 1646
Apr 2016 1516 1652
May 2016 1514 1652
Jun 2016 1516 1654
Jul 2016 1520 1659
Aug 2016 1526 1659
Sep 2016 1527 1664
Oct 2016 1523 1663
Nov 2016 1530 1666
Dec 2016 1528 1668
Jan 2017 1533 1668
Feb 2017 1535 1677
Mar 2017 1546 1686
Apr 2017 1542 1689
May 2017 1544 1690
Jun 2017 1556 1694
Jul 2017 1555 1693
Aug 2017 1561 1699
Sep 2017 1563 1704
Oct 2017 1565 1706
Nov 2017 1572 1713
Dec 2017 1576 1721
Jan 2018 1570 1724
Feb 2018 1590 1728
Mar 2018 1586 1731
Apr 2018 1592 1730
May 2018 1605 1749
Jun 2018 1612 1755
Jul 2018 1612 1751
Aug 2018 1619 1771
Sep 2018 1620 1761
Oct 2018 1631 1767
Nov 2018 1635 1778
Dec 2018 1632 1772
Jan 2019 1647 1782
Feb 2019 1688 1791
Mar 2019 1660 1801
Apr 2019 1669 1810
May 2019 1681 1816
Jun 2019 1678 1812
Jul 2019 1680 1819
Aug 2019 1682 1824
Sep 2019 1685 1819
Oct 2019 1692 1825
Nov 2019 1687 1831
Dec 2019 1672 1835
Jan 2020 1702 1850
Feb 2020 1710 1861
Mar 2020 1743 1847
Apr 2020 1656 1793
May 2020 1666 1799
Jun 2020 1716 1828
Jul 2020 1742 1858
Aug 2020 1748 1880
Sep 2020 1768 1897
Oct 2020 1779 1913
Nov 2020 1777 1915
Dec 2020 1783 1924
Jan 2021 1784 1927
Feb 2021 1791 1942
Mar 2021 1796 1950
Apr 2021 1815 1965
May 2021 1808 1965
Jun 2021 1833 1974
Jul 2021 1878 1978
Aug 2021 1823 1986
Sep 2021 1850 2003
Oct 2021 1857 2012
Nov 2021 1854 2020
Dec 2021 1902 2033
Jan 2022 1935 2048
Feb 2022 1914 2054
Mar 2022 1929 2077
Apr 2022 1935 2080
May 2022 1944 2088
Jun 2022 1954 2101
Jul 2022 1957 2108
Aug 2022 1975 2119
Sep 2022 1966 2140
Oct 2022 1983 2152
Nov 2022 2006 2196
Dec 2022 2009 2186
Jan 2023 2036 2193
Feb 2023 2050 2207
Mar 2023 2111 2217
Apr 2023 2060 2231
May 2023 2080 2259
Jun 2023 2098 2302
Jul 2023 2088 2266
Aug 2023 2097 2279
Sep 2023 2099 2267
Oct 2023 2108 2285
Nov 2023 2127 2337
Dec 2023 2139 2324
Jan 2024 2130 2334


Please note:

  1. The flash estimate for the latest period is based on early data and is therefore more likely to be subject to revisions.
  2. In this month’s publication estimates for median pay in Northern Ireland for November and December have seen larger revisions than usual. This is due to additional imputation being run on schemes where HMRC have identified partially missing data in those scheme’s submissions. There is potential for further revision for this period.

Median monthly pay in NI and the UK increased overall between mid-2015 and early 2020. In NI, an increase of 1.9% in median pay was recorded between February and March 2020, followed by a decrease of 5.0% between March and April 2020. The UK also saw a decrease between March and April 2020 of 2.9%. These monthly decreases coincided with decreases in the number of paid employees recorded in April 2020.

From April 2020, median employee pay has shown an upward trend in both NI and the UK. The most recent data shows that NI pay decreased by 0.4% over the month compared to an increase of 0.4% in the UK. Over the year, NI saw an increase of 4.6% compared to 6.4% in the UK as a whole. In January 2024, NI had the lowest pay, as well as the lowest monthly and annual growth of the 12 UK government regions.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • NI had a median monthly pay of £2,130 in January 2024, which was a decrease of 0.4% on the previous month and an increase of 4.6% over the year.
  • UK had a median monthly pay of £2,334 in January 2024, which was an increase of 0.4% on the previous month and an increase of 6.4% over the year.
  • NI had the smallest annual increase of the 12 UK regions, and remains the lowest earning region in the UK. London had the highest median pay (£2,778).
  • Since March 2020, earnings in NI have increased by 22.2%, 4.2pps lower than the increase in the UK (26.4%) and the lowest of all the UK regions.


4. Economic inactivity

4.1 LFS Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The NI economic inactivity rate decreased over both the quarter and the year to 26.8%.
  • The most recent UK economic inactivity rate for October-December 2023 was estimated at 21.9%.

Figure 8: NI economic inactivity consistently above UK average

Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64), Oct-Dec 2008 to Oct-Dec 2023
Chart
Note: graph has a non-zero axis
Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Oct-Dec 2008 29.5 22.9
Jan-Mar 2009 30.8 22.8
Apr-Jun 2009 31.5 23.1
Jul-Sep 2009 30.6 23.3
Oct-Dec 2009 30.1 23.4
Jan-Mar 2010 29.2 23.6
Apr-Jun 2010 28.9 23.5
Jul-Sep 2010 28.8 23.2
Oct-Dec 2010 28.3 23.5
Jan-Mar 2011 27.8 23.4
Apr-Jun 2011 26.8 23.3
Jul-Sep 2011 27.3 23.4
Oct-Dec 2011 27.2 23.2
Jan-Mar 2012 27.6 23.1
Apr-Jun 2012 27.3 22.8
Jul-Sep 2012 27.0 22.7
Oct-Dec 2012 27.2 22.4
Jan-Mar 2013 27.7 22.7
Apr-Jun 2013 28.3 22.6
Jul-Sep 2013 27.5 22.4
Oct-Dec 2013 27.0 22.4
Jan-Mar 2014 27.0 22.3
Apr-Jun 2014 26.8 22.3
Jul-Sep 2014 27.0 22.3
Oct-Dec 2014 28.0 22.4
Jan-Mar 2015 27.1 22.3
Apr-Jun 2015 27.4 22.3
Jul-Sep 2015 27.6 22.1
Oct-Dec 2015 26.9 22.0
Jan-Mar 2016 26.1 22.0
Apr-Jun 2016 26.4 21.8
Jul-Sep 2016 25.6 21.8
Oct-Dec 2016 26.1 21.8
Jan-Mar 2017 27.6 21.8
Apr-Jun 2017 26.8 21.6
Jul-Sep 2017 28.8 21.8
Oct-Dec 2017 28.4 21.6
Jan-Mar 2018 27.9 21.3
Apr-Jun 2018 27.6 21.4
Jul-Sep 2018 27.7 21.4
Oct-Dec 2018 26.8 21.2
Jan-Mar 2019 26.5 21.1
Apr-Jun 2019 25.5 21.0
Jul-Sep 2019 25.8 21.1
Oct-Dec 2019 25.8 20.8
Jan-Mar 2020 26.4 20.7
Apr-Jun 2020 28.0 21.3
Jul-Sep 2020 27.5 21.5
Oct-Dec 2020 29.0 21.6
Jan-Mar 2021 29.2 21.7
Apr-Jun 2021 28.1 21.6
Jul-Sep 2021 28.7 21.6
Oct-Dec 2021 28.9 21.7
Jan-Mar 2022 27.5 21.8
Apr-Jun 2022 28.3 21.8
Jul-Sep 2022 28.3 22.0
Oct-Dec 2022 27.2 21.7
Jan-Mar 2023 27.4 21.5
Apr-Jun 2023 27.8 21.4
Jul-Sep 2023 27.8 21.9
Oct-Dec 2023 26.8 21.9


Figure 8 shows that, over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in NI has been consistently higher than the UK average with more variability in economic inactivity in NI than the UK. Economic inactivity in NI peaked during this time-period in 2009 at over 31%, compared to the lower peak in the UK rate of almost 24% at the beginning of 2010.

During the ten years to 2019, the trend for both the UK and NI economic inactivity rates was generally downward. From the onset of the COVID pandemic, both UK and NI economic inactivity rates increased. Compared to the pre-pandemic period (October-December 2019), the most recent NI rate of 26.8% is higher by 1.0pps, whilst the most recent UK rate of 21.9% is 1.1pps higher. Over the last year, the economic inactivity rate in NI has seen a decrease of 0.4pps whilst the UK rate has seen an increase of 0.2pps.

The economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for October-December 2023 was estimated at 26.8%, which was:

  • a decrease of 1.1pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • a decrease of 0.4pps over the year (not statistically significant).

The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 612,000, which was:

  • down 13,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 1,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) showed:

  • a decrease of 0.5pps over the year in the male economic inactivity rate to 22.1%; and
  • a decrease of 0.3pps over the year in the female economic inactivity rate to 31.4%.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 26.8% was 4.9pps above the most recent UK rate of 21.9%; and
  • the highest of the twelve UK regions.

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Reasons for inactivity:

  • In October-December 2023, the most common reason for economic inactivity among the working age population was ‘long-term sick’. There were 130,000 ‘long-term sick’, accounting for 41.0% of the total economically inactive (aged 16 to 64), or 11.0% of the working age population. This was an increase of 0.4% from the same period last year and 26,000 (+25.0%) higher than the pre-pandemic figure in October-December 2019.
  • Compared to the pre-pandemic figures in October-December 2019, there has been an increase in the number of ‘long-term sick’ (+26,000), ‘retired’ (+2,000) and ‘student’ (+9,000), however the total for ‘family and home care’ (-15,000) has decreased.

Inactivity by Age:

  • In October-December 2023, those aged 65 and over (297,000) made up the highest proportion (48.4%) of the total economically inactive (age 16 and over), with those aged 25 to 34 (35,000) making up the lowest proportion (5.7%) across the age groups.
  • Those aged 65 and over had the highest economic inactivity rate (89.8%), whilst those aged 25 to 34 had the lowest (15.0%). These rates are similar to the pre-pandemic rates in October-December 2019 (90.1% and 15.8% respectively).


5. Further Information

General Information

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), claimant count, redundancies counts, and HMRC PAYE statistics. The LMR also contains an overview from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in March, June, September and December. More information about the data sources can be found in the LMR Supplementary Document.

Comparison between data sources

Although the broad concepts are similar across sources contained within this release, differences in reference periods, definitions, and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics. Additional information can be found in the LMR supplementary document, including comparisons between:

  • LFS unemployment and experimental claimant count
  • LFS employment and the number of paid employees from HMRC PAYE RTI
  • LFS employment and QES employee jobs
  • HMRC PAYE RTI and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
  • Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and HMRC PAYE RTI

More information is also available in the comparison of labour market data sources article by ONS.

Seasonal adjustment

All estimates discussed in this report are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar and allows comparison over months or quarters.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a sample survey. Estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability which means if we drew many samples, each would give a different result. The sampling variability of the Northern Ireland estimates can be found in Table 2.49 of the LFS monthly tables, published alongside this report on the NISRA website. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value.

Alternative release time

The NI Labour Market Report is released at 7am. This is an ‘alternative release time’ agreed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and differs from the standard 9.30am release time for the majority of statistical reports.

Labour Force Survey

Response rates

The methodology for determining the response rate for the NI LFS has been revised to follow the same methodology as that used in ONS. This allows for the comparability of the response rate against the UK.

The achieved sample size for the Northern Ireland Labour Force Survey during July to September 2023 was 2,362, a decrease of 7.7% from the same period last year.

Table 1: LFS Response rates, July-September 2021 to July-September 2023

Period NI Response Rate (%) UK Response Rate (%)
July-September 2021 24.6 26.8
October-December 2021 28.2 26.6
January-March 2022 33.3 27.2
April-June 2022 43.3 27.8
July-September 2022 46.4 26.1
October-December 2022 47.4 23.6
January-March 2023 48.0 21.5
April-June 2023 47.4 19.6
July-September 2023 50.5 21.3

Please note, response rates are updated quarterly.

LFS revisions

LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates. The population totals for January-March 2020 to June-August 2022, however, used projected growth rates from RTI data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used at that time for the LFS therefore did not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates etc. since June 2021 and hence the estimates of levels may have been under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates for this period will, however, be robust.

The latest LFS reweighting was introduced in February 2024, affecting data from July-September 2022 to September-November 2023, to incorporate the latest estimates of the size and composition of the UK population. Previous reweightings occured in October 2020, July 2021 and June 2022 and an overview of the impact of reweighting on the NI estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website.

LFS comparisons

Estimates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity are derived from the LFS. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates over separate three-month periods, commonly known as 3 month rolling averages. For example, estimates relating to October-December 2023 should be compared with the estimates for July-September 2023. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for September-November 2023, as the October and November data are included within both estimates. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the NI population over a three-month period, not for a single month period.

Suppression and shading

Estimates based on fewer than 3 events are suppressed to prevent disclosure. In tables, shading is used to draw attention to lower statistical quality/precision of estimates that are based on a smaller sample size. Shaded estimates still provide the best estimate of the size of a group but comparison across time or between groups with similar values should be avoided. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

Due to the small sample sizes and the effect this may have on the precision of the figures, estimates for long-term unemployment, youth unemployment and annual changes in unemployment by sex have not been included in this bulletin this month.

Claimant Count

Experimental claimant count

This measure is categorised as experimental as the statistics are in the testing phase and not yet fully developed. ONS have produced a useful Guide to Experimental Statistics, and an FAQ document explaining the difference between the previous measure and this experimental measure is available on the changes to the claimant count page.

Claimant count revisions

Seasonally adjusted estimates are revised on a regular basis. Each month the previous estimate is revised in line with the current seasonal adjustment model, giving the best estimate of change for the latest period.

Also, a seasonal adjustment review takes place once a year. Typically, the last 3 years are revised and this takes the most recent year of data into account when determining the seasonal adjustment model. These revisions affect only the seasonally adjusted data.

Claimant count undercount correction note

A number of claims across the UK to the UC element of the Claimant Count were coded to incorrect locations for data relating to December 2018 to November 2019. This has been corrected for December 2019 onwards, but previous periods remain affected. The impact of the revision on NI for December 2019 was an increase of fewer than 1,000 cases.

Percentage of workforce

The number of claimants as a percentage of workforce jobs plus claimants. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs, self-employment jobs, HM Forces, and government-supported trainees. This measure is only available at the NI level.

Redundancies

To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the NISRA website.

HMRC PAYE Real Time Information

Age breakdowns are published in January, April, July and October, and industry sector breakdowns published in February, May, August and November. Data are subject to revisions.

Further information on UK monthly pay, UK pay distribution, methodology, data source, collection, and coverage of PAYE RTI data, as well as information on imputation and revisions can be found on the Earnings and employment from PAYE page.


The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for their co-operation in agreeing to take part in the surveys and for facilitating the collection of the relevant data.


6. Contacts

For further information contact:

Labour Force Survey, Claimant Count, and Redundancies

Mark McFetridge
Email:

HMRC PAYE

Ashleigh Warwick
Email:


Web: Labour Market and Social Welfare
Twitter: NISRA

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7. Accredited Official Statistics Status

These official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for Statistics. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and are therefore labelled as accredited official statistics. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. For further information, please refer to the Office for Statistics Regulation accredited official statistics webpage.

As outlined above, our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards using the details in Section 6.

Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing or via the OSR website.