All tables associated with this report can be downloaded from the NISRA website.
1. Overview
1.1 Key points
Employment section 3.3
Employment section 3.4
Unemployment section 2.2
Unemployment section 2.3
Employment section 3.5
Unemployment section 2.1
Employment section 3.1
Economic inactivity section 4.1
Employment section 3.2
1.2 Commentary
The latest labour market release shows that payroll employee numbers and earnings have both increased over the year. Measures of total employment (e.g. employment rate and hours worked), unemployment and economic inactivity continue to show improvement over the year but have not yet returned to their pre-pandemic position.
The latest HMRC payroll data showed that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.3% over the month and are 2.4% above the figure recorded in November 2021. Payrolled earnings also increased over the month, by 1.2% and are 7.5% above the figure recorded in November 2021.
Employee jobs in NI increased over both the quarter and the year to 802,960 jobs in September 2022, to reach a new series high. The quarterly and annual increases in employee jobs in September 2022 were largely driven by the services industry sector. The construction, manufacturing and other industries sectors also reported an increase over the year.
There were 50 redundancies confirmed to the Department in November 2022. Over the most recent twelve-month period, 1,490 redundancies were proposed and 850 were confirmed. The rolling twelve-month total of confirmed redundancies is the lowest total in the time series and is the second consecutive total under 1,000.
The claimant count estimate increased over the month to November 2022 from the revised estimate for October 2022. This is the third consecutive monthly increase following a trend of decreases between March 2021 and August 2022. The claimant count rate however has remained at 3.8% for the seventh consecutive month.
Results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show a statistically significant increase in the employment rate over both the quarter and the year to August-October 2022 to 71.3%. In addition, there were statistically significant decreases in the unemployment rate over the year to 2.7% and economic inactivity rate over the quarter to 26.7%. Despite these changes, the employment rate remains 1.0pps below the pre-pandemic level recorded in November-January 2020, whilst the unemployment rate remains 0.3pps above the pre-pandemic position and the economic inactivity rate 0.8pps above the pre-pandemic rate. The total number of hours worked in August-October 2022 was 3.9% below the pre-pandemic position recorded in November-January 2020.
1.3 Things users need to know
LFS Occupational data
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has identified an issue with the collection of some occupational data in a number of surveys, including the Labour Force Survey (LFS). While we estimate any impacts will be small overall, this would affect the accuracy of the breakdowns in quarterly tables 2.18, 2.29 and 2.39. A decision has therefore been taken to suspend publication of these tables until this issue has been resolved. ONS are aiming to recode the occupations for January 2021 onwards over the coming months, and these will be available in spring 2023. Further details, including a list of the impacts to SOC codes, can be found on the ONS website.
1.4 Context
The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI.
The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 (Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page) showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.
2. Unemployment
2.1 Labour Force Survey unemployment
LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.
Key findings
- The NI unemployment rate for August-October 2022 decreased over both the quarter and the year to 2.7%.
- The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.7%.
Figure 1: NI unemployment rate remains above pre-pandemic rate
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over), Aug-Oct 2007 to Aug-Oct 2022
Chart
Table
Date | Northern Ireland | United Kingdom |
---|---|---|
Aug-Oct 2007 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
Nov-Jan 2008 | 4.2 | 5.2 |
Feb-Apr 2008 | 4.1 | 5.3 |
May-Jul 2008 | 4.1 | 5.5 |
Aug-Oct 2008 | 4.4 | 6.0 |
Nov-Jan 2009 | 5.7 | 6.5 |
Feb-Apr 2009 | 6.3 | 7.3 |
May-Jul 2009 | 6.4 | 7.9 |
Aug-Oct 2009 | 6.5 | 7.9 |
Nov-Jan 2010 | 6.3 | 7.7 |
Feb-Apr 2010 | 7.1 | 8.0 |
May-Jul 2010 | 6.7 | 7.8 |
Aug-Oct 2010 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
Nov-Jan 2011 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
Feb-Apr 2011 | 7.2 | 7.7 |
May-Jul 2011 | 7.4 | 8.0 |
Aug-Oct 2011 | 6.9 | 8.4 |
Nov-Jan 2012 | 6.4 | 8.4 |
Feb-Apr 2012 | 7.0 | 8.2 |
May-Jul 2012 | 8.2 | 8.0 |
Aug-Oct 2012 | 7.8 | 7.9 |
Nov-Jan 2013 | 8.3 | 7.8 |
Feb-Apr 2013 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
May-Jul 2013 | 6.9 | 7.7 |
Aug-Oct 2013 | 7.6 | 7.4 |
Nov-Jan 2014 | 7.4 | 7.2 |
Feb-Apr 2014 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
May-Jul 2014 | 6.6 | 6.1 |
Aug-Oct 2014 | 6.4 | 6.0 |
Nov-Jan 2015 | 6.0 | 5.7 |
Feb-Apr 2015 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
May-Jul 2015 | 6.1 | 5.5 |
Aug-Oct 2015 | 6.2 | 5.2 |
Nov-Jan 2016 | 6.1 | 5.1 |
Feb-Apr 2016 | 5.6 | 5.0 |
May-Jul 2016 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
Aug-Oct 2016 | 5.7 | 4.8 |
Nov-Jan 2017 | 5.8 | 4.7 |
Feb-Apr 2017 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
May-Jul 2017 | 5.0 | 4.3 |
Aug-Oct 2017 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
Nov-Jan 2018 | 3.3 | 4.3 |
Feb-Apr 2018 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
May-Jul 2018 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
Aug-Oct 2018 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
Nov-Jan 2019 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
Feb-Apr 2019 | 3.1 | 3.8 |
May-Jul 2019 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
Aug-Oct 2019 | 2.3 | 3.8 |
Nov-Jan 2020 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
Feb-Apr 2020 | 2.5 | 4.1 |
May-Jul 2020 | 3.2 | 4.3 |
Aug-Oct 2020 | 4.0 | 5.1 |
Nov-Jan 2021 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
Feb-Apr 2021 | 3.6 | 4.9 |
May-Jul 2021 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
Aug-Oct 2021 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
Nov-Jan 2022 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
Feb-Apr 2022 | 2.6 | 3.8 |
May-Jul 2022 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
Aug-Oct 2022 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
Figure 1 shows unemployment rates for NI and the UK over the last 15 years. During this period, the UK rate peaked at 8.4% in late-2011 while the NI rate peaked at 8.3% in late-2012. Following these peaks, both rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019, when the NI rate recorded an all-time low point of 2.3%. The latest UK rate is 0.2pps below the pre-pandemic rate of 3.9% (November-January 2020), whilst the NI rate remains 0.3pps above the November-January 2020 rate of 2.4%.
The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period August-October 2022 was estimated at 2.7%. This was:
- a decrease of 0.2pps over the quarter (not statistically significant)
- a decrease of 1.2pps over the year (statistically significant)
The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 24,000, which was:
- down 1,000 from last quarter; and
- down 10,000 from the same period last year.
UK regional comparison:
- The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 2.7% was 0.9pps below the overall UK rate of 3.7%; and
- the joint-second lowest of the twelve UK regions.
Long-term unemployment:
The percentage of unemployed who have been unemployed for 1 year or more (long-term) in NI was 38.5%. This was:
- a decrease of 1.3pps from the same period last year.
2.2 Claimant count (experimental)
Claimant Count (experimental) consists of all people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) plus those Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Some claimants are wholly unemployed and seeking work, while others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support.
Key findings
- Over the month to November 2022, the NI claimant count increased by 1.2% to 36,200.
- In November 2022, 3.8% of the NI workforce were recorded on the claimant count.
Figure 2: The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate remains higher than the pre-pandemic rate
NI seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, November 2007 to November 2022
Chart
Table
Date | Undercount | Rate |
---|---|---|
Nov 2007 | 2.7 | |
Dec 2007 | 2.7 | |
Jan 2008 | 2.6 | |
Feb 2008 | 2.6 | |
Mar 2008 | 2.6 | |
Apr 2008 | 2.7 | |
May 2008 | 2.8 | |
Jun 2008 | 2.9 | |
Jul 2008 | 3.0 | |
Aug 2008 | 3.1 | |
Sep 2008 | 3.3 | |
Oct 2008 | 3.5 | |
Nov 2008 | 3.9 | |
Dec 2008 | 4.1 | |
Jan 2009 | 4.3 | |
Feb 2009 | 4.7 | |
Mar 2009 | 5.0 | |
Apr 2009 | 5.2 | |
May 2009 | 5.4 | |
Jun 2009 | 5.6 | |
Jul 2009 | 5.7 | |
Aug 2009 | 5.8 | |
Sep 2009 | 5.9 | |
Oct 2009 | 6.0 | |
Nov 2009 | 6.0 | |
Dec 2009 | 6.1 | |
Jan 2010 | 6.1 | |
Feb 2010 | 6.1 | |
Mar 2010 | 6.1 | |
Apr 2010 | 6.1 | |
May 2010 | 6.1 | |
Jun 2010 | 6.2 | |
Jul 2010 | 6.2 | |
Aug 2010 | 6.3 | |
Sep 2010 | 6.4 | |
Oct 2010 | 6.4 | |
Nov 2010 | 6.4 | |
Dec 2010 | 6.4 | |
Jan 2011 | 6.4 | |
Feb 2011 | 6.5 | |
Mar 2011 | 6.5 | |
Apr 2011 | 6.5 | |
May 2011 | 6.5 | |
Jun 2011 | 6.6 | |
Jul 2011 | 6.7 | |
Aug 2011 | 6.7 | |
Sep 2011 | 6.7 | |
Oct 2011 | 6.7 | |
Nov 2011 | 6.7 | |
Dec 2011 | 6.7 | |
Jan 2012 | 6.9 | |
Feb 2012 | 6.9 | |
Mar 2012 | 6.9 | |
Apr 2012 | 7.0 | |
May 2012 | 7.0 | |
Jun 2012 | 7.1 | |
Jul 2012 | 7.2 | |
Aug 2012 | 7.1 | |
Sep 2012 | 7.2 | |
Oct 2012 | 7.2 | |
Nov 2012 | 7.2 | |
Dec 2012 | 7.3 | |
Jan 2013 | 7.2 | |
Feb 2013 | 7.2 | |
Mar 2013 | 7.2 | |
Apr 2013 | 7.2 | |
May 2013 | 7.1 | |
Jun 2013 | 7.0 | |
Jul 2013 | 7.0 | |
Aug 2013 | 7.0 | |
Sep 2013 | 6.9 | |
Oct 2013 | 6.8 | |
Nov 2013 | 6.7 | |
Dec 2013 | 6.6 | |
Jan 2014 | 6.5 | |
Feb 2014 | 6.4 | |
Mar 2014 | 6.3 | |
Apr 2014 | 6.2 | |
May 2014 | 6.1 | |
Jun 2014 | 6.0 | |
Jul 2014 | 5.8 | |
Aug 2014 | 5.8 | |
Sep 2014 | 5.8 | |
Oct 2014 | 5.7 | |
Nov 2014 | 5.6 | |
Dec 2014 | 5.5 | |
Jan 2015 | 5.4 | |
Feb 2015 | 5.2 | |
Mar 2015 | 5.0 | |
Apr 2015 | 4.9 | |
May 2015 | 4.8 | |
Jun 2015 | 4.8 | |
Jul 2015 | 4.7 | |
Aug 2015 | 4.6 | |
Sep 2015 | 4.5 | |
Oct 2015 | 4.4 | |
Nov 2015 | 4.4 | |
Dec 2015 | 4.3 | |
Jan 2016 | 4.2 | |
Feb 2016 | 4.2 | |
Mar 2016 | 4.2 | |
Apr 2016 | 4.1 | |
May 2016 | 4.0 | |
Jun 2016 | 4.0 | |
Jul 2016 | 3.9 | |
Aug 2016 | 3.8 | |
Sep 2016 | 3.8 | |
Oct 2016 | 3.7 | |
Nov 2016 | 3.6 | |
Dec 2016 | 3.6 | |
Jan 2017 | 3.5 | |
Feb 2017 | 3.5 | |
Mar 2017 | 3.4 | |
Apr 2017 | 3.4 | |
May 2017 | 3.4 | |
Jun 2017 | 3.3 | |
Jul 2017 | 3.3 | |
Aug 2017 | 3.3 | |
Sep 2017 | 3.2 | |
Oct 2017 | 3.2 | |
Nov 2017 | 3.1 | |
Dec 2017 | 3.2 | |
Jan 2018 | 3.1 | |
Feb 2018 | 3.2 | |
Mar 2018 | 3.1 | |
Apr 2018 | 3.1 | |
May 2018 | 3.1 | |
Jun 2018 | 3.1 | |
Jul 2018 | 3.0 | |
Aug 2018 | 3.0 | |
Sep 2018 | 3.1 | |
Oct 2018 | 3.1 | |
Nov 2018 | 3.2 | |
Dec 2018 | 3.2 | |
Jan 2019 | 3.1 | |
Feb 2019 | 3.1 | |
Mar 2019 | 3.1 | |
Apr 2019 | 3.1 | |
May 2019 | 3.1 | |
Jun 2019 | 3.1 | |
Jul 2019 | 3.1 | |
Aug 2019 | 3.0 | |
Sep 2019 | 3.1 | |
Oct 2019 | 3.2 | |
Nov 2019 | 3.2 | |
Dec 2019 | 3.2 | |
Jan 2020 | 3.0 | |
Feb 2020 | 3.0 | |
Mar 2020 | 3.0 | |
Apr 2020 | 5.7 | |
May 2020 | 6.5 | |
Jun 2020 | 6.3 | |
Jul 2020 | 6.2 | |
Aug 2020 | 6.3 | |
Sep 2020 | 6.1 | |
Oct 2020 | 6.0 | |
Nov 2020 | 6.0 | |
Dec 2020 | 5.9 | |
Jan 2021 | 5.9 | |
Feb 2021 | 6.1 | |
Mar 2021 | 6.0 | |
Apr 2021 | 5.9 | |
May 2021 | 5.6 | |
Jun 2021 | 5.4 | |
Jul 2021 | 5.2 | |
Aug 2021 | 5.1 | |
Sep 2021 | 5.0 | |
Oct 2021 | 4.9 | |
Nov 2021 | 4.6 | |
Dec 2021 | 4.4 | |
Jan 2022 | 4.2 | |
Feb 2022 | 4.1 | |
Mar 2022 | 4.0 | |
Apr 2022 | 3.9 | |
May 2022 | 3.8 | |
Jun 2022 | 3.8 | |
Jul 2022 | 3.8 | |
Aug 2022 | 3.8 | |
Sep 2022 | 3.8 | |
Oct 2022 | 3.8 | |
Nov 2022 | 3.8 |
In November 2022, 36,200 people were recorded on the NI Claimant Count. This is 43.5% less than the recent peak in May 2020 and 21.4% more than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020. The increases in the claimant count between March 2020 and May 2020 can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced, resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold.
The NI seasonally adjusted claimant count was 36,200 (3.8% of the workforce) in November 2022, representing:
- an increase of 400 (1.2%) over the month
- an increase of 2.2% in males and a decrease of 0.4% in females over the month
- a decrease of 7,300 (16.8%) over the year
- an increase of 6,400 (21.4%) since March 2020, and
- the seventh consecutive month that the claimant count rate has remained at 3.8%.
UK regional comparison:
- The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 2.0% over the month to 1,556,900 (3.9% of the workforce).
- The UK count is 42.2% below the recent peak in August 2020 and 26.4% above the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.
2.3 Redundancies
Redundancies: Companies must inform the Department of (a) impending redundancies of 20 or more employees and (b) subsequent confirmed redundancies. Since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.
Key findings
- 50 redundancies were confirmed in November 2022, taking the annual total to 850, which was 72.3% less than the previous year (3,070).
- There were 200 proposed redundancies in November 2022, taking the annual total to 1,490, which was 34.7% less than the previous year (2,280).
Figure 3: Latest twelve month totals of confirmed and proposed redundancies remain below long-term trends
NI confirmed and proposed redundancies, Annual totals, Dec 2006-Nov 2007 to Dec 2021-Nov 2022
Chart
Table
Year | Proposed | Confirmed |
---|---|---|
2006/07 | 2,860 | 2,150 |
2007/08 | 2,710 | 2,360 |
2008/09 | 5,810 | 4,700 |
2009/10 | 3,220 | 2,250 |
2010/11 | 1,730 | 1,680 |
2011/12 | 4,590 | 3,330 |
2012/13 | 2,360 | 2,230 |
2013/14 | 4,260 | 2,050 |
2014/15 | 3,630 | 1,950 |
2015/16 | 4,330 | 3,730 |
2016/17 | 2,760 | 1,850 |
2017/18 | 3,930 | 2,640 |
2018/19 | 4,000 | 3,090 |
2019/20 | 10,720 | 4,730 |
2020/21 | 2,280 | 3,070 |
2021/22 | 1,490 | 850 |
Redundancy notification data generally shows a high degree of correlation between proposed and confirmed redundancies when grouped by year. The graph above shows that, generally the number of proposed redundancies is higher than confirmed redundancies indicating that not all proposed redundancies take place.
200 redundancies were proposed in November 2022 taking the latest rolling twelve-month total to 1,490, which remains below the long-term trend and is one of the lowest twelve-month totals in the time series.
The rolling twelve-month total for confirmed redundancies remains historically low. The total in the most recent period (850) was the lowest total in our time series and, following last month, is the second time the rolling twelve-month total has been below 1,000. The monthly average of confirmed redundancies so far in 2022 was 60, which was well below the monthly average of 240 during 2021.
Confirmed redundancies
During November 2022, the Department was notified of:
- 50 confirmed redundancies, (just over a fifth of the monthly average (240) during 2021).
Over the latest twelve month period there were:
- 850 confirmed redundancies, which was 72.3% less than the previous year (3,070).
- 200 confirmed redundancies (23.9%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
- 160 confirmed redundancies (19.0%) in the financial and insurance activities sector.
- 160 confirmed redundancies (19.0%) in the manufacturing sector.
Proposed redundancies
During November 2022, the Department was notified of:
- 200 proposed redundancies, following low or no redundancies in October.
Over the last twelve months to the end of November 2022 there were:
- 1,490 proposed redundancies, which was 34.7% less than the previous year (2,280).
- 330 proposed redundancies (22.0%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
- 210 proposed redundancies (14.0%) in the manufacturing sector.
- 130 proposed redundancies (8.6%) in the administrative and support service activities sector.
3. Employment
3.1 LFS employment
LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.
Key findings
- The NI employment rate for August-October 2022 increased over both the quarter and the year to 71.3%.
- The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.6%.
Figure 4: Similar trend in NI and UK employment rates over the last 15 years
Seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64), Aug-Oct 2007 to Aug-Oct 2022
Chart
Table
Date | Northern Ireland | United Kingdom |
---|---|---|
Aug-Oct 2007 | 68.0 | 72.8 |
Nov-Jan 2008 | 68.1 | 72.9 |
Feb-Apr 2008 | 68.9 | 73.0 |
May-Jul 2008 | 68.3 | 72.8 |
Aug-Oct 2008 | 67.8 | 72.3 |
Nov-Jan 2009 | 66.0 | 72.2 |
Feb-Apr 2009 | 64.6 | 71.4 |
May-Jul 2009 | 64.2 | 70.6 |
Aug-Oct 2009 | 65.2 | 70.6 |
Nov-Jan 2010 | 65.6 | 70.4 |
Feb-Apr 2010 | 66.1 | 70.2 |
May-Jul 2010 | 66.4 | 70.6 |
Aug-Oct 2010 | 65.7 | 70.5 |
Nov-Jan 2011 | 66.0 | 70.5 |
Feb-Apr 2011 | 67.2 | 70.5 |
May-Jul 2011 | 67.1 | 70.2 |
Aug-Oct 2011 | 67.7 | 70.1 |
Nov-Jan 2012 | 68.1 | 70.2 |
Feb-Apr 2012 | 67.1 | 70.5 |
May-Jul 2012 | 66.8 | 71.1 |
Aug-Oct 2012 | 67.3 | 71.1 |
Nov-Jan 2013 | 66.4 | 71.4 |
Feb-Apr 2013 | 67.1 | 71.2 |
May-Jul 2013 | 67.5 | 71.5 |
Aug-Oct 2013 | 66.8 | 71.9 |
Nov-Jan 2014 | 67.6 | 72.1 |
Feb-Apr 2014 | 67.9 | 72.7 |
May-Jul 2014 | 67.9 | 72.8 |
Aug-Oct 2014 | 68.1 | 73.0 |
Nov-Jan 2015 | 67.6 | 73.3 |
Feb-Apr 2015 | 68.3 | 73.4 |
May-Jul 2015 | 67.9 | 73.5 |
Aug-Oct 2015 | 68.5 | 74.0 |
Nov-Jan 2016 | 68.8 | 74.1 |
Feb-Apr 2016 | 69.8 | 74.2 |
May-Jul 2016 | 69.7 | 74.5 |
Aug-Oct 2016 | 69.7 | 74.4 |
Nov-Jan 2017 | 69.1 | 74.5 |
Feb-Apr 2017 | 68.8 | 74.8 |
May-Jul 2017 | 68.3 | 75.3 |
Aug-Oct 2017 | 68.4 | 75.1 |
Nov-Jan 2018 | 69.5 | 75.3 |
Feb-Apr 2018 | 69.8 | 75.6 |
May-Jul 2018 | 70.0 | 75.5 |
Aug-Oct 2018 | 69.5 | 75.7 |
Nov-Jan 2019 | 70.9 | 76.1 |
Feb-Apr 2019 | 71.3 | 76.1 |
May-Jul 2019 | 72.0 | 76.1 |
Aug-Oct 2019 | 72.4 | 76.2 |
Nov-Jan 2020 | 72.3 | 76.5 |
Feb-Apr 2020 | 70.8 | 76.0 |
May-Jul 2020 | 69.8 | 75.6 |
Aug-Oct 2020 | 69.6 | 74.8 |
Nov-Jan 2021 | 67.9 | 74.6 |
Feb-Apr 2021 | 68.4 | 74.7 |
May-Jul 2021 | 68.7 | 75.1 |
Aug-Oct 2021 | 68.4 | 75.4 |
Nov-Jan 2022 | 68.7 | 75.4 |
Feb-Apr 2022 | 70.2 | 75.6 |
May-Jul 2022 | 69.6 | 75.4 |
Aug-Oct 2022 | 71.3 | 75.6 |
Figure 4 shows that, over the last 15 years, the NI employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in NI between 2008 and 2009 (by over 4pps) was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. Similarly, the fall between 2019 and 2021 was steeper for NI than the UK as a whole, following peak rates recorded for both towards the end of 2019. The NI employment rate remains 1.0pps below the pre-pandemic rate of 72.3% recorded in November-January 2020. Similarly, the UK rate is 0.9pps below the rate of 76.5% recorded in November-January 2020.
The most recent NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period August-October 2022 was estimated at 71.3%. This was:
- an increase of 1.7pps over the quarter (statistically significant); and
- an increase of 2.9pps over the year (statistically significant);
The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 861,000, which was:
- up 10,000 from last quarter; and
- up 30,000 from the same period last year.
Annual changes by sex included:
- the male (aged 16 to 64) employment rate (75.0%) increased by 5.8pps over the year; and
- the female (aged 16 to 64) employment rate (67.6%) was unchanged over the year.
UK regional comparison:
- The NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 71.3% was 4.3pps below the overall UK rate of 75.6%; and
- the second-lowest of the twelve UK regions.
3.2 Total weekly hours
Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.
Key findings
- The total number of weekly hours worked in August-October 2022 was estimated at 27.7 million hours per week.
- This was an increase of 1.3% on the previous quarter and an increase of 2.7% on the same period last year.
Figure 5: Hours worked has not returned to pre-pandemic levels
Total weekly hours worked (Age 16 and over), Aug-Oct 2007 to Aug-Oct 2022
Chart
Table
Date | Total weekly hours |
---|---|
Aug-Oct 2007 | 26.8 |
Nov-Jan 2008 | 25.9 |
Feb-Apr 2008 | 27.4 |
May-Jul 2008 | 27.2 |
Aug-Oct 2008 | 27.4 |
Nov-Jan 2009 | 25.2 |
Feb-Apr 2009 | 25.7 |
May-Jul 2009 | 25.1 |
Aug-Oct 2009 | 25.8 |
Nov-Jan 2010 | 25.0 |
Feb-Apr 2010 | 26.0 |
May-Jul 2010 | 25.5 |
Aug-Oct 2010 | 25.6 |
Nov-Jan 2011 | 24.8 |
Feb-Apr 2011 | 26.1 |
May-Jul 2011 | 25.8 |
Aug-Oct 2011 | 26.4 |
Nov-Jan 2012 | 25.3 |
Feb-Apr 2012 | 26.2 |
May-Jul 2012 | 26.1 |
Aug-Oct 2012 | 27.1 |
Nov-Jan 2013 | 25.6 |
Feb-Apr 2013 | 26.6 |
May-Jul 2013 | 26.8 |
Aug-Oct 2013 | 27.0 |
Nov-Jan 2014 | 26.0 |
Feb-Apr 2014 | 27.4 |
May-Jul 2014 | 27.2 |
Aug-Oct 2014 | 27.7 |
Nov-Jan 2015 | 26.6 |
Feb-Apr 2015 | 27.4 |
May-Jul 2015 | 26.6 |
Aug-Oct 2015 | 27.5 |
Nov-Jan 2016 | 26.4 |
Feb-Apr 2016 | 27.6 |
May-Jul 2016 | 27.1 |
Aug-Oct 2016 | 27.3 |
Nov-Jan 2017 | 27.3 |
Feb-Apr 2017 | 28.0 |
May-Jul 2017 | 26.8 |
Aug-Oct 2017 | 27.8 |
Nov-Jan 2018 | 28.0 |
Feb-Apr 2018 | 28.1 |
May-Jul 2018 | 28.7 |
Aug-Oct 2018 | 27.9 |
Nov-Jan 2019 | 28.5 |
Feb-Apr 2019 | 29.4 |
May-Jul 2019 | 29.2 |
Aug-Oct 2019 | 29.5 |
Nov-Jan 2020 | 28.8 |
Feb-Apr 2020 | 26.0 |
May-Jul 2020 | 23.6 |
Aug-Oct 2020 | 25.9 |
Nov-Jan 2021 | 24.8 |
Feb-Apr 2021 | 25.4 |
May-Jul 2021 | 26.2 |
Aug-Oct 2021 | 27.0 |
Nov-Jan 2022 | 26.2 |
Feb-Apr 2022 | 27.9 |
May-Jul 2022 | 27.4 |
Aug-Oct 2022 | 27.7 |
Figure 5 shows that, like many labour market indicators, total weekly hours worked shows a seasonal pattern. Outside of these seasonal variations a trend of increasing weekly hours worked can be seen between 2009 and 2020 prior to a sharp fall between November-January 2020 and May-July 2020. Following this point, whilst there has been a general increasing trend, hours worked has not recovered to the peak levels in 2019. Hours worked in August-October 2022 were 5.9% below the peak of 29.5 million hours in August-October 2019.
The total number of weekly hours worked in NI in August-October 2022 was estimated at 27.7 million hours, this was:
- an increase of 0.4 million hours (1.3%) on the previous quarter;
- an increase of 0.7 million hours (2.7%) from the same period last year; and
- 1.1 million hours, or 3.9%, below the pre-pandemic (November-January 2020) figure.
3.3 Employees (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI
Payrolled employee counts (experimental) from the HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include those who are self-employed. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. As employees who were “furloughed” as part of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme programme should still have had their payments reported through this system, they should feature in these data.
Key findings
- The number of payrolled employees in NI in November 2022 was 0.3% higher than October 2022 and 2.4% higher than November 2021.
- In the UK, the number of employees increased by 0.4% over the month and increased by 2.7% over the year to November.
Figure 6: Number of payrolled employees increases over the month
NI payrolled employees (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to November 2022
Chart
Table
Date | Northern Ireland |
---|---|
Jul 2014 | 673,597 |
Aug 2014 | 674,832 |
Sep 2014 | 676,157 |
Oct 2014 | 677,578 |
Nov 2014 | 679,066 |
Dec 2014 | 678,853 |
Jan 2015 | 683,624 |
Feb 2015 | 685,419 |
Mar 2015 | 687,076 |
Apr 2015 | 690,470 |
May 2015 | 691,314 |
Jun 2015 | 693,573 |
Jul 2015 | 695,038 |
Aug 2015 | 696,109 |
Sep 2015 | 698,140 |
Oct 2015 | 698,703 |
Nov 2015 | 699,309 |
Dec 2015 | 699,167 |
Jan 2016 | 700,706 |
Feb 2016 | 701,109 |
Mar 2016 | 702,433 |
Apr 2016 | 702,343 |
May 2016 | 703,161 |
Jun 2016 | 703,289 |
Jul 2016 | 703,885 |
Aug 2016 | 705,663 |
Sep 2016 | 707,253 |
Oct 2016 | 708,446 |
Nov 2016 | 710,756 |
Dec 2016 | 712,074 |
Jan 2017 | 710,897 |
Feb 2017 | 712,529 |
Mar 2017 | 713,720 |
Apr 2017 | 715,510 |
May 2017 | 716,729 |
Jun 2017 | 718,067 |
Jul 2017 | 718,798 |
Aug 2017 | 720,423 |
Sep 2017 | 721,790 |
Oct 2017 | 723,286 |
Nov 2017 | 724,286 |
Dec 2017 | 727,897 |
Jan 2018 | 727,461 |
Feb 2018 | 728,775 |
Mar 2018 | 729,592 |
Apr 2018 | 731,084 |
May 2018 | 732,078 |
Jun 2018 | 733,019 |
Jul 2018 | 734,026 |
Aug 2018 | 735,463 |
Sep 2018 | 736,460 |
Oct 2018 | 738,712 |
Nov 2018 | 739,624 |
Dec 2018 | 740,454 |
Jan 2019 | 741,844 |
Feb 2019 | 742,871 |
Mar 2019 | 744,378 |
Apr 2019 | 745,839 |
May 2019 | 745,734 |
Jun 2019 | 745,065 |
Jul 2019 | 747,225 |
Aug 2019 | 747,627 |
Sep 2019 | 747,936 |
Oct 2019 | 748,101 |
Nov 2019 | 749,634 |
Dec 2019 | 748,961 |
Jan 2020 | 751,026 |
Feb 2020 | 752,236 |
Mar 2020 | 752,503 |
Apr 2020 | 741,924 |
May 2020 | 740,586 |
Jun 2020 | 740,138 |
Jul 2020 | 741,987 |
Aug 2020 | 738,116 |
Sep 2020 | 738,221 |
Oct 2020 | 737,436 |
Nov 2020 | 736,089 |
Dec 2020 | 736,038 |
Jan 2021 | 737,642 |
Feb 2021 | 737,880 |
Mar 2021 | 739,688 |
Apr 2021 | 741,483 |
May 2021 | 747,841 |
Jun 2021 | 755,267 |
Jul 2021 | 760,615 |
Aug 2021 | 760,021 |
Sep 2021 | 761,366 |
Oct 2021 | 762,361 |
Nov 2021 | 765,106 |
Dec 2021 | 767,297 |
Jan 2022 | 769,103 |
Feb 2022 | 769,645 |
Mar 2022 | 771,535 |
Apr 2022 | 773,051 |
May 2022 | 773,804 |
Jun 2022 | 774,317 |
Jul 2022 | 776,557 |
Aug 2022 | 780,327 |
Sep 2022 | 778,938 |
Oct 2022 | 781,094 |
Nov 2022 | 783,544 |
Between 2014 and 2020 the number of payrolled employees had generally been increasing each month. Prior to COVID, payrolled employees peaked at around 753,000 in March 2020. This was followed by a sharp decrease of around 11,000 employees (1.4%) to April 2020. Employee numbers remained around that level until April 2021.
Since April 2021 there has generally been an upward trend in the number of payrolled employees. November 2022 saw a second consecutive increase following a small decrease in September 2022 as well as a 2.4% increase in the number of payrolled employees over the year.
Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:
- 783,500 people were payrolled employees in November 2022, a 0.3% increase from the previous month and a 2.4% increase from November 2021.
- in the UK, there were 29,938,600 payrolled employees at November 2022, an increase of 0.4% over the month and an increase of 2.7% over the year.
- all regions of the UK increased over the year to November 2022, where changes ranged from a 4.2% increase in London to an increase of 2.1% in the North West. NI recorded a lower increase than the UK as a whole (2.4% and 2.7% respectively).
- between March 2020 and November 2022, all regions of the UK recorded an increase in payrolled employees (an increase of 3.3% overall). Northern Ireland recorded the largest increase (4.1%) while Scotland recorded the lowest (2.6%).
3.4 Earnings (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI
Median measures the amount earned by the average employee, i.e. the level of earnings at which half the population are above and half the population are below.
Key findings
- Median monthly pay increased by 1.2% (£23) over the month to November to £1,999 and was 7.5% (£140) higher than the same period last year.
- UK median monthly pay increased by 1.5% (£33) over the month to November to £2,181 and increased by 8.0% (£161) over the year.
Figure 7: Median monthly pay increases over month in both NI and the UK
Median Monthly Pay (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to November 2022
Chart
Table
Date | Northern Ireland | UK |
---|---|---|
Jul 2014 | 1490 | 1598 |
Aug 2014 | 1488 | 1601 |
Sep 2014 | 1488 | 1601 |
Oct 2014 | 1494 | 1605 |
Nov 2014 | 1498 | 1608 |
Dec 2014 | 1514 | 1617 |
Jan 2015 | 1500 | 1620 |
Feb 2015 | 1494 | 1620 |
Mar 2015 | 1500 | 1618 |
Apr 2015 | 1499 | 1614 |
May 2015 | 1498 | 1615 |
Jun 2015 | 1491 | 1616 |
Jul 2015 | 1492 | 1619 |
Aug 2015 | 1488 | 1616 |
Sep 2015 | 1494 | 1618 |
Oct 2015 | 1496 | 1626 |
Nov 2015 | 1493 | 1630 |
Dec 2015 | 1497 | 1631 |
Jan 2016 | 1502 | 1638 |
Feb 2016 | 1508 | 1640 |
Mar 2016 | 1516 | 1646 |
Apr 2016 | 1516 | 1652 |
May 2016 | 1514 | 1652 |
Jun 2016 | 1517 | 1654 |
Jul 2016 | 1519 | 1659 |
Aug 2016 | 1526 | 1659 |
Sep 2016 | 1526 | 1664 |
Oct 2016 | 1523 | 1663 |
Nov 2016 | 1529 | 1666 |
Dec 2016 | 1528 | 1668 |
Jan 2017 | 1533 | 1668 |
Feb 2017 | 1534 | 1677 |
Mar 2017 | 1546 | 1686 |
Apr 2017 | 1542 | 1689 |
May 2017 | 1544 | 1691 |
Jun 2017 | 1556 | 1694 |
Jul 2017 | 1554 | 1693 |
Aug 2017 | 1560 | 1699 |
Sep 2017 | 1562 | 1704 |
Oct 2017 | 1564 | 1706 |
Nov 2017 | 1571 | 1714 |
Dec 2017 | 1576 | 1721 |
Jan 2018 | 1569 | 1724 |
Feb 2018 | 1589 | 1728 |
Mar 2018 | 1585 | 1730 |
Apr 2018 | 1591 | 1730 |
May 2018 | 1603 | 1750 |
Jun 2018 | 1612 | 1756 |
Jul 2018 | 1611 | 1751 |
Aug 2018 | 1618 | 1771 |
Sep 2018 | 1619 | 1760 |
Oct 2018 | 1629 | 1767 |
Nov 2018 | 1634 | 1779 |
Dec 2018 | 1632 | 1772 |
Jan 2019 | 1645 | 1782 |
Feb 2019 | 1688 | 1791 |
Mar 2019 | 1661 | 1801 |
Apr 2019 | 1668 | 1810 |
May 2019 | 1680 | 1817 |
Jun 2019 | 1678 | 1812 |
Jul 2019 | 1680 | 1819 |
Aug 2019 | 1681 | 1824 |
Sep 2019 | 1683 | 1819 |
Oct 2019 | 1690 | 1825 |
Nov 2019 | 1688 | 1831 |
Dec 2019 | 1670 | 1835 |
Jan 2020 | 1701 | 1849 |
Feb 2020 | 1710 | 1860 |
Mar 2020 | 1744 | 1846 |
Apr 2020 | 1656 | 1793 |
May 2020 | 1664 | 1801 |
Jun 2020 | 1717 | 1830 |
Jul 2020 | 1740 | 1859 |
Aug 2020 | 1747 | 1880 |
Sep 2020 | 1764 | 1896 |
Oct 2020 | 1774 | 1911 |
Nov 2020 | 1780 | 1915 |
Dec 2020 | 1780 | 1925 |
Jan 2021 | 1782 | 1927 |
Feb 2021 | 1792 | 1941 |
Mar 2021 | 1798 | 1949 |
Apr 2021 | 1815 | 1965 |
May 2021 | 1805 | 1967 |
Jun 2021 | 1835 | 1977 |
Jul 2021 | 1875 | 1979 |
Aug 2021 | 1823 | 1986 |
Sep 2021 | 1844 | 2002 |
Oct 2021 | 1852 | 2010 |
Nov 2021 | 1859 | 2020 |
Dec 2021 | 1898 | 2036 |
Jan 2022 | 1933 | 2046 |
Feb 2022 | 1917 | 2054 |
Mar 2022 | 1934 | 2076 |
Apr 2022 | 1936 | 2081 |
May 2022 | 1941 | 2092 |
Jun 2022 | 1958 | 2106 |
Jul 2022 | 1953 | 2110 |
Aug 2022 | 1977 | 2118 |
Sep 2022 | 1959 | 2140 |
Oct 2022 | 1976 | 2148 |
Nov 2022 | 1999 | 2181 |
Median employee pay in NI and the UK was generally on an increasing trend between mid-2015 and early 2020. A sharp increase in median pay of 2.0% was seen between February and March 2020 in NI, followed by a decrease of 5.0% in NI and 2.9% in the UK between March and April 2020. This coincided with decreases in the number of paid employees between March and April.
From April 2020, median employee pay has shown an upward trend, however in recent months some volatility has been seen in the NI results. Latest earnings (£1,999) remain 14.6% higher than the pre-pandemic level in March 2020 (£1,744).
Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:
- NI had a median monthly pay of £1,999 in November 2022, which was an increase of 1.2% on the previous month and an increase of 7.5% from November 2021.
- UK had a median monthly pay of £2,181 in November 2022, which was an increase of 1.5% on the previous month and an increase of 8.0% from November 2021.
- NI had the 4th smallest annual increase of the 12 regions. It has the lowest median earnings in the UK, while London has the highest median pay (£2,604).
- Since March 2020, earnings in NI have increased by 14.6%, lowest of all the UK regions, and 3.5pps lower than the UK, which increased by 18.1%.
3.5 Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)
QES employee: anyone aged 16 years or over that is directly paid from a business’s payroll for carrying out a full-time or part-time job or being on a training scheme in NI. The QES counts the number of jobs rather than the number of persons with jobs.
Key findings
- Employee jobs in NI increased over both the quarter and the year to 802,960 jobs in September 2022.
- September 2022 estimates reported a fourth consecutive quarter of annualized growth (+3.0%) following four quarters of decline.
Figure 8: Employee jobs are increasing
NI index of employee jobs, September 2007 to September 2022 (Quarter 3)
Chart
Table
Quarter | NI | UK |
---|---|---|
Q3 2007 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Q4 2007 | 100.4 | 100.1 |
Q1 2008 | 100.9 | 100.2 |
Q2 2008 | 101.0 | 100.5 |
Q3 2008 | 100.2 | 100.5 |
Q4 2008 | 99.4 | 99.7 |
Q1 2009 | 98.5 | 98.8 |
Q2 2009 | 97.9 | 98.3 |
Q3 2009 | 97.5 | 97.6 |
Q4 2009 | 98.1 | 97.2 |
Q1 2010 | 97.7 | 96.9 |
Q2 2010 | 97.5 | 97.0 |
Q3 2010 | 97.1 | 96.9 |
Q4 2010 | 96.6 | 96.8 |
Q1 2011 | 96.4 | 97.1 |
Q2 2011 | 96.1 | 96.9 |
Q3 2011 | 95.9 | 97.1 |
Q4 2011 | 95.4 | 97.3 |
Q1 2012 | 95.2 | 98.1 |
Q2 2012 | 95.6 | 97.7 |
Q3 2012 | 95.7 | 97.5 |
Q4 2012 | 95.9 | 97.6 |
Q1 2013 | 95.9 | 98.2 |
Q2 2013 | 96.5 | 98.6 |
Q3 2013 | 97.2 | 98.9 |
Q4 2013 | 97.2 | 99.7 |
Q1 2014 | 97.9 | 100.4 |
Q2 2014 | 97.9 | 101.5 |
Q3 2014 | 99.4 | 102.1 |
Q4 2014 | 99.5 | 102.6 |
Q1 2015 | 99.7 | 103.4 |
Q2 2015 | 100.2 | 103.7 |
Q3 2015 | 100.8 | 104.2 |
Q4 2015 | 100.6 | 104.6 |
Q1 2016 | 100.7 | 105.2 |
Q2 2016 | 101.2 | 105.7 |
Q3 2016 | 101.4 | 105.9 |
Q4 2016 | 102.0 | 106.0 |
Q1 2017 | 102.6 | 106.7 |
Q2 2017 | 103.4 | 106.7 |
Q3 2017 | 103.5 | 107.1 |
Q4 2017 | 104.7 | 107.0 |
Q1 2018 | 105.0 | 107.2 |
Q2 2018 | 105.5 | 107.2 |
Q3 2018 | 105.7 | 107.8 |
Q4 2018 | 106.6 | 108.0 |
Q1 2019 | 106.7 | 108.4 |
Q2 2019 | 106.8 | 108.7 |
Q3 2019 | 107.3 | 109.2 |
Q4 2019 | 107.5 | 109.1 |
Q1 2020 | 107.2 | 109.5 |
Q2 2020 | 107.1 | 108.5 |
Q3 2020 | 106.3 | 107.1 |
Q4 2020 | 106.1 | 107.1 |
Q1 2021 | 105.9 | 107.8 |
Q2 2021 | 106.1 | 108.9 |
Q3 2021 | 107.3 | 110.1 |
Q4 2021 | 107.9 | 110.7 |
Q1 2022 | 109.4 | 111.6 |
Q2 2022 | 110.1 | 112.6 |
Q3 2022 | 110.6 | 113.0 |
Figure 8 shows estimated seasonally adjusted employee jobs, indexed to allow comparison between NI and the UK. The UK reached a low point in December 2010, more than a year before the NI low in March 2012. There are now 111,870 more employee jobs in NI since the lowest point in March 2012, and 4,592,000 more jobs in the UK since December 2010.
The seasonally adjusted employee jobs total in Northern Ireland at September 2022 was 802,960, which was:
- an increase of 0.5% (3,700 jobs) over the quarter from the revised June 2022 estimate of 799,250; and
- an increase of 3.1% (24,400 jobs) over the year from the revised September 2021 estimate of 778,560.
- While the quarterly change in employee jobs was not found to be statistically significant, the change over the year was statistically significant.
4. Economic inactivity
4.1 LFS Economic inactivity
Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.
Key findings
- The economic inactivity rate decreased over both the quarter and the year to 26.7%.
- The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21.5%.
Figure 9: NI economic inactivity consistently above UK average
Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64), Aug-Oct 2007 to Aug-Oct 2022
Chart
Table
Date | Northern Ireland | United Kingdom |
---|---|---|
Aug-Oct 2007 | 29.0 | 23.1 |
Nov-Jan 2008 | 28.8 | 23.0 |
Feb-Apr 2008 | 28.1 | 22.9 |
May-Jul 2008 | 28.6 | 22.9 |
Aug-Oct 2008 | 29.0 | 23.1 |
Nov-Jan 2009 | 30.0 | 22.7 |
Feb-Apr 2009 | 31.0 | 22.9 |
May-Jul 2009 | 31.3 | 23.3 |
Aug-Oct 2009 | 30.2 | 23.3 |
Nov-Jan 2010 | 30.0 | 23.6 |
Feb-Apr 2010 | 28.7 | 23.6 |
May-Jul 2010 | 28.7 | 23.3 |
Aug-Oct 2010 | 28.8 | 23.3 |
Nov-Jan 2011 | 28.2 | 23.3 |
Feb-Apr 2011 | 27.5 | 23.5 |
May-Jul 2011 | 27.4 | 23.5 |
Aug-Oct 2011 | 27.2 | 23.3 |
Nov-Jan 2012 | 27.2 | 23.2 |
Feb-Apr 2012 | 27.7 | 23.1 |
May-Jul 2012 | 27.0 | 22.6 |
Aug-Oct 2012 | 26.9 | 22.7 |
Nov-Jan 2013 | 27.5 | 22.4 |
Feb-Apr 2013 | 27.2 | 22.6 |
May-Jul 2013 | 27.4 | 22.4 |
Aug-Oct 2013 | 27.5 | 22.3 |
Nov-Jan 2014 | 26.9 | 22.2 |
Feb-Apr 2014 | 27.0 | 22.1 |
May-Jul 2014 | 27.1 | 22.3 |
Aug-Oct 2014 | 27.1 | 22.2 |
Nov-Jan 2015 | 28.0 | 22.2 |
Feb-Apr 2015 | 27.2 | 22.2 |
May-Jul 2015 | 27.5 | 22.1 |
Aug-Oct 2015 | 26.9 | 21.9 |
Nov-Jan 2016 | 26.6 | 21.8 |
Feb-Apr 2016 | 25.9 | 21.8 |
May-Jul 2016 | 26.3 | 21.6 |
Aug-Oct 2016 | 25.9 | 21.7 |
Nov-Jan 2017 | 26.5 | 21.7 |
Feb-Apr 2017 | 27.2 | 21.6 |
May-Jul 2017 | 27.9 | 21.3 |
Aug-Oct 2017 | 28.7 | 21.5 |
Nov-Jan 2018 | 28.0 | 21.2 |
Feb-Apr 2018 | 27.7 | 21.0 |
May-Jul 2018 | 27.1 | 21.2 |
Aug-Oct 2018 | 27.8 | 21.0 |
Nov-Jan 2019 | 26.4 | 20.7 |
Feb-Apr 2019 | 26.4 | 20.8 |
May-Jul 2019 | 25.8 | 20.8 |
Aug-Oct 2019 | 25.9 | 20.8 |
Nov-Jan 2020 | 25.9 | 20.4 |
Feb-Apr 2020 | 27.3 | 20.7 |
May-Jul 2020 | 27.8 | 20.9 |
Aug-Oct 2020 | 27.4 | 21.1 |
Nov-Jan 2021 | 29.0 | 21.3 |
Feb-Apr 2021 | 29.0 | 21.4 |
May-Jul 2021 | 27.9 | 21.2 |
Aug-Oct 2021 | 28.7 | 21.3 |
Nov-Jan 2022 | 28.9 | 21.4 |
Feb-Apr 2022 | 27.8 | 21.3 |
May-Jul 2022 | 28.2 | 21.7 |
Aug-Oct 2022 | 26.7 | 21.5 |
Figure 9 shows that, over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in NI has been consistently higher than the UK average. Economic inactivity in NI peaked during this time-period in 2009 at over 31%, compared to the lower peak in the UK rate of almost 24% at the beginning of 2010.
During the ten years to 2019, both the UK and NI economic inactivity rates were generally showing a downward trend, albeit the rate for NI has shown more variability than the UK. Whilst the NI rate has continued to show more variability than the UK since the onset of the COVID pandemic, there has been a general increasing trend for both. The NI and UK rates remain higher than the pre-pandemic period (November-January 2020), by 0.8pps and 1.1pps respectively.
The economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for August-October 2022 was estimated at 26.7%, which was:
- a decrease of 1.6pps over the quarter (statistically significant);
- a decrease of 2.0pps over the year (not statistically significant)
The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 600,000, which was:
- down 7,000 from last quarter; and
- down 15,000 from the same period last year.
Annual changes by sex included:
- the male (aged 16 to 64) economic inactivity rate (21.9%) decreased by 5.0pps over the year; and
- the female (aged 16 to 64) economic inactivity rate (31.3%) increased by 0.9pps over the year.
UK regional comparison:
- The NI economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 26.7% was 5.2pps above the overall UK rate of 21.5%; and
- the highest of the twelve UK regions.
5. Further Information
General Information
The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), claimant count, redundancies counts, and HMRC PAYE statistics. The LMR also contains an overview from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in March, June, September and December. More information about the data sources can be found in the LMR Supplementary Document.
New Labour Market Report (LMR) format
The September 2022 LMR publication marked the first release in HTML format, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP). The content and format of the report and monthly tables have changed to make them more user friendly and interactive, enhancing accessibility, and increasing automation in their production. As the tables have changed, a mapping document has been created showing the relationship between the old and new tables.
In addition, the LMR, data tables and supplementary documents are now available on one webpage. Individual data source pages contain links directing users to the most recent data on the LMR publication page.
We welcome feedback from users on this new development (see Contacts).
Comparison between data sources
Although the broad concepts are similar across sources contained within this release, differences in reference periods, definitions, and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics. Additional information can be found in the LMR supplementary document, including comparisons between:
- LFS unemployment and experimental claimant count
- LFS employment and the number of paid employees from HMRC PAYE RTI
- LFS employment and QES employee jobs
- HMRC PAYE RTI and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
- Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and HMRC PAYE RTI
More information is also available in the comparison of labour market data sources article by ONS.
Seasonal adjustment
All estimates discussed in this report are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar and allows comparison over months or quarters.
Reporting change and sampling variability
Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a sample survey. Estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability which means if we drew many samples, each would give a different result. The sampling variability of the Northern Ireland estimates can be found in Table 2.49 of the LFS monthly tables, published alongside this report on the NISRA website. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value.
Alternative release time
The NI Labour Market Report is released at 7am. This is an ‘alternative release time’ agreed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and differs from the standard 9.30am release time for the majority of statistical reports.
Labour Force Survey
Response rates
The total eligible sample for the July-September 2022 LFS consisted of 3,947 addresses (1,198 chosen at random from the Land and Property Services (LPS) list of domestic properties and 2,749 carried forward from the previous quarter). A random start, fixed interval sampling technique of the addresses, which are ordered by Council Area and Ward, is used. This ensures a proportional representation across the Council Areas in Northern Ireland. Only private household addresses were eligible and every selected address is interviewed on five successive occasions over five quarters. This means there is an 80% sample overlap between quarters. The achieved sample size has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Table 1 is updated on a quarterly basis – additional information can be found in the supplementary document.
Table 1: Response rates, July-September 2022
Statistic | Figure |
---|---|
Fully and partially responding | 2,544 |
Eligible sample | 3,947 |
Response rate (%) | 64.5% |
LFS revisions
LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates. The population totals used for the latest LFS estimates use projected growth rates from RTI data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used for the LFS therefore does not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates etc. since June 2021 and hence levels estimates may be under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates will, however, be robust.
In June 2022, the LFS estimates were reweighted from January-March 2020 to January-March 2022 using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data. An overview of the impact of reweighting on the NI estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website. This webpage also contains the detail on two previous LFS reweightings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in October 2020 and July 2021.
LFS comparisons
Estimates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity are derived from the LFS. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates over separate three-month periods, commonly known as 3 month rolling averages. For example, estimates relating to August-October 2022 should be compared with the estimates for May-July 2022. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for July-September 2022, as the August and September data are included within both estimates. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the NI population over a three-month period, not for a single month period.
Suppression and shading
Estimates based on fewer than 3 events are suppressed to prevent disclosure. In tables, shading is used to draw attention to lower statistical quality/precision of estimates that are based on a smaller sample size. Shaded estimates still provide the best estimate of the size of a group but comparison across time or between groups with similar values should be avoided. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.
Due to the small sample sizes and the effect this has on the precision of the figures, estimates for youth unemployment have not been included in this bulletin this month.
Claimant Count
Experimental claimant count
The measure is categorised as experimental as the statistics are in the testing phase and not yet fully developed. ONS have produced a useful Guide to Experimental Statistics, and an FAQ document explaining the difference between the previous measure and this experimental measure is available on the changes to the claimant count page.
Claimant count revisions
Seasonally adjusted estimates are revised on a regular basis. Each month the previous estimate is revised in line with the current seasonal adjustment model, giving the best estimate of change for the latest period.
Claimant count undercount correction note
A number of claims across the UK to the UC element of the Claimant Count were coded to incorrect locations for data relating to December 2018 to November 2019. This has been corrected for December 2019 onwards, but previous periods remain affected. The impact of the revision on NI for December 2019 was an increase of fewer than 1,000 cases.
Percentage of workforce
The number of claimants as a percentage of workforce jobs plus claimants. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs, self-employment jobs, HM Forces, and government-supported trainees. This measure is only available at the NI level.
Redundancies
To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the NISRA website.
Redundancy legal requirements
Further information on redundancies can be found in the Redundancies Background Information page and Confirmed Redundancies Trend Tables.
HMRC PAYE Real Time Information
Age breakdowns are published in January, April, July and October, and industry sector breakdowns published in February, May, August and November. Data are subject to revisions.
Further information on UK monthly pay, UK pay distribution, methodology, data source, collection, and coverage of PAYE RTI data, as well as information on imputation and revisions can be found on the Earnings and employment from PAYE page.
Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)
QES revisions
QES estimates are revised quarterly to reflect the latest information provided to the Department by employers. The June 2022 seasonally adjusted estimate first published in September 2022 has subsequently been revised up by 0.2%. For further details, please see the Quarterly Employment Survey revisions page.
The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households and businesses for their co-operation in agreeing to take part in the surveys and for facilitating the collection of the relevant data.
6. Contacts
For further information contact:
Labour Force Survey, Claimant Count, and Redundancies
Mark McFetridge
Email: LFS@finance-ni.gov.uk
Quarterly Employment Survey
Ciaran Kerr
Email: economicstats@nisra.gov.uk
HMRC PAYE
Ashleigh Warwick
Email: economicstats@nisra.gov.uk
Web: Labour Market and Social Welfare
Twitter: NISRA
7. National Statistics Status
National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.
These statistics were designated as National Statistics in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for statistics. A compliance check in March 2020 recommended the continued designation of the report as a National Statistic. These statistics were considered as part of a wider assessment of the UK employment and jobs statistics.
Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:
- New HTML Labour Market Report and monthly tables, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP) to enhance usability and accessibility (in line with regulations) and increase automation of production;
- Providing more context to results by setting recent changes within context of longer term trends;
- Removed pre-release access to enhance trustworthiness, and brought forward the publication date as a result;
- Improved timeliness of quarterly labour force survey tables (ranging from 1 week to 3 months) by incorporating quarterly tables in the main Labour Market Report Publication;
- Improved quality of the LFS data by boosting the sample size and improving precision around headline estimates (Please note, sample sizes decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to difficulty of collecting survey information from households, but have since returned to pre-pandemic levels);
- Reviewed and updated quality protocols for release for LFS data;
- Improved accessibility of labour market statistics by changing the release dates of statistics to avoid public holidays;
- Included additional administrative sources of labour market data to provide a fuller picture of the labour market;
- Changed the timing of release in line with change in ONS release practices in response to COVID-19 where the exemption has now been transferred to an alternative release time of 7am as agreed by the OSR.