All tables associated with this report can be downloaded from the NISRA website.

1. Overview

1.1 Key points

The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in July 2023 was 793,000, an increase of 0.4% over the month and an increase of 1.9% over the year.

Employment section 3.3
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,103 in July 2023. This was unchanged over the month and an increase of £147 (7.5%) over the year.

Employment section 3.4
In July 2023, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 37,000 (3.8% of the workforce), an increase of 1.7% from the previous month’s revised figure. The July 2023 claimant count remains 23.8% higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

Unemployment section 2.2
NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 40 redundancies occurred in July 2023. Over the year August 2022 to July 2023, 1,340 redundancies were confirmed, 11.3% more than in the previous 12 months. There were 250 proposed redundancies in July 2023, taking the annual total to 4,370 (almost three and a half times the figure for the previous year).

Unemployment section 2.3
The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people age 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period April-June 2023 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.7%. This was an increase of 0.2 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and was unchanged from the same period last year.

Unemployment section 2.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) decreased by 0.6pps over the quarter and increased by 1.7pps over the year to 71.4%.

Employment section 3.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) increased by 0.4pps over the quarter and decreased by 1.8pps over the year to 26.6%.

Economic inactivity section 4.1
Line chart of seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64) in NI. More detail on the trends is included in the text directly beside the charts and later in the report.
The total number of weekly hours worked in NI was estimated at 28.7 million hours, a decrease of 0.8% on the previous quarter and an increase of 2.9% on the equivalent period last year.

Employment section 3.2

1.2 Commentary

The latest labour market release shows that over the year both payrolled employee numbers and earnings have increased with Labour Force Survey employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity rates remaining relatively steady.

The latest HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.4% over the month and increased by 1.9% over the year. Payrolled earnings were unchanged over the month and were 7.5% higher than July 2022.

Households reported, via the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a 1.7pps increase in the employment rate over the year to April-June 2023, to 71.4%, while there was a 1.8pps decrease in the economic inactivity rate over the year to April-June 2023, to 26.6%. The unemployment rate was unchanged from the position one year ago, at 2.7%. Caution is advised when interpreting these results as none of the annual changes were statistically significant. At April-June 2023, the economic inactivity rate was 0.7pps above the pre-pandemic position recorded in October-December 2019, while the unemployment rate for April-June 2023 was 0.3pps above the pre-pandemic rate. The employment rate for April-June 2023 sat 0.9pps below the pre-pandemic position recorded in October-December 2019.

The total number of hours worked in April-June 2023 increased by 2.9% over the year, to 28.7 million hours per week. This is 1.7% below the pre-pandemic position recorded in October-December 2019.

The Department was notified of 250 proposed redundancies in July 2023, which is almost double the monthly average recorded during 2022 of 130. This month’s proposed redundancies take the latest rolling twelve-month total to 4,370, which is the highest rolling twelve-month total since August 2021 and is almost three and a half times the figure for the previous year (1,260).

The Department was also notified that 40 redundancies had taken place in July 2023. This brought the rolling twelve-month total of confirmed redundancies to 1,340, the fifth consecutive month that the total has been over 1,000, although this figure is still well below the long term trend.

Lastly, the claimant count estimate increased, by 1.7%, over the month to July 2023 from the revised figure for June 2023. The claimant count rate also increased, to 3.8%, however this is the sixteenth consecutive month that the claimant count rate has been within the range 3.6% to 3.8%.

1.3 Things users need to know

Labour Market Statistics – Transformation in Northern Ireland

NISRA aims to provide the most accurate and up-to-date statistics about the local labour market. To achieve this, a number of initiatives are being taken forward including greater use of administrative data sources such as HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Pay As You Earn data and the transformation of the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

Most of our labour market statistics will continue to be obtained from surveys completed by either households or businesses. Using surveys to collect labour market statistics is an effective and proven approach that delivers trusted results. In the next two years, NISRA are working towards transforming how we deliver key labour market surveys.

The transformation of the Labour Force Survey focuses on improving the design of the LFS and quality of its outputs. It will use enhanced address registers, improved sampling, and transform to a respondent led, online first approach supported by telephone collection and “knock to nudge” processes. To account for this, the transformation has also focused on a respondent-centred design of questions.

More details on the transformation plan will be published soon.

The goal of these initiatives is to reduce the time and effort needed to collect survey data, to improve overall response and to provide more accurate and relevant statistics.

LFS Occupational data

On 18 July 2022, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced an issue with the collection of some occupational data. On 26 September 2022, they informed users of the impact of the coding error. ONS undertook a recoding exercise to correct the error and revised the affected Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates alongside their release in July 2023. An article published on 11th July 2023 gives more detail on the new methodology used and its impact.

In addition, ONS have updated Annual Population Survey estimates published on Nomis alongside their August 2023 labour market release.

Given that this issue has now been resolved, quarterly tables 2.18, 2.29 and 2.39 have been reintroduced to the Northern Ireland Labour Market Report beginning with the August 2023 release.

Labour Market Statistics Newsletter

The third Labour Market Statistics Newsletter was released on Tuesday 15th August 2023, available on the NISRA website at: Labour Market Statistics Newsletter - August 2023

This newsletter provides users with an overview of things they may have missed since the last user group meeting in September 2022 and outlines our plans up to the next user group meeting, scheduled for 24th October 2023.

LFS Reweighting

The Office for National Statistics are planning to reweight the Labour Force Survey (LFS) published data using more up-to-date population estimates, drawing on the latest census data alongside their labour market release in October 2023. They intend to publish indicative estimates of the reweighted LFS in an article in September 2023.

1.4 Context

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI.

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 (Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page) showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.


2. Unemployment

2.1 Labour Force Survey unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The NI unemployment rate for April-June 2023 increased over the quarter and was unchanged from the same period last year, at 2.7%.
  • The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 4.2%.

Figure 1: NI unemployment rate remains below UK rate

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (Age 16 and over), Apr-Jun 2008 to Apr-Jun 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Apr-Jun 2008 3.9 5.4
Jul-Sep 2008 4.1 5.9
Oct-Dec 2008 5.2 6.4
Jan-Mar 2009 6.2 7.1
Apr-Jun 2009 6.5 7.8
Jul-Sep 2009 7.0 7.8
Oct-Dec 2009 5.9 7.8
Jan-Mar 2010 6.9 8.0
Apr-Jun 2010 6.6 7.9
Jul-Sep 2010 6.9 7.8
Oct-Dec 2010 7.9 7.9
Jan-Mar 2011 7.3 7.8
Apr-Jun 2011 7.3 7.9
Jul-Sep 2011 7.3 8.3
Oct-Dec 2011 7.0 8.4
Jan-Mar 2012 6.7 8.2
Apr-Jun 2012 7.7 8.0
Jul-Sep 2012 7.7 7.9
Oct-Dec 2012 7.6 7.8
Jan-Mar 2013 8.0 7.8
Apr-Jun 2013 7.3 7.7
Jul-Sep 2013 7.4 7.6
Oct-Dec 2013 7.3 7.2
Jan-Mar 2014 7.1 6.8
Apr-Jun 2014 6.5 6.3
Jul-Sep 2014 6.2 6.0
Oct-Dec 2014 5.8 5.7
Jan-Mar 2015 6.2 5.5
Apr-Jun 2015 6.3 5.6
Jul-Sep 2015 6.0 5.3
Oct-Dec 2015 5.9 5.1
Jan-Mar 2016 6.1 5.1
Apr-Jun 2016 5.8 4.9
Jul-Sep 2016 5.6 4.8
Oct-Dec 2016 5.4 4.7
Jan-Mar 2017 5.3 4.6
Apr-Jun 2017 5.1 4.4
Jul-Sep 2017 4.0 4.3
Oct-Dec 2017 4.1 4.4
Jan-Mar 2018 3.0 4.2
Apr-Jun 2018 3.7 4.0
Jul-Sep 2018 3.8 4.1
Oct-Dec 2018 3.8 4.0
Jan-Mar 2019 2.9 3.8
Apr-Jun 2019 3.1 3.9
Jul-Sep 2019 2.5 3.8
Oct-Dec 2019 2.4 3.8
Jan-Mar 2020 2.5 4.0
Apr-Jun 2020 2.8 4.1
Jul-Sep 2020 3.4 4.9
Oct-Dec 2020 3.8 5.2
Jan-Mar 2021 4.2 4.9
Apr-Jun 2021 4.3 4.7
Jul-Sep 2021 4.3 4.3
Oct-Dec 2021 3.2 4.0
Jan-Mar 2022 2.6 3.7
Apr-Jun 2022 2.7 3.8
Jul-Sep 2022 3.0 3.6
Oct-Dec 2022 2.5 3.7
Jan-Mar 2023 2.5 3.9
Apr-Jun 2023 2.7 4.2


Figure 1 shows unemployment rates for NI and the UK over the last 15 years. During this period, the UK unemployment rate peaked at 8.4% in late-2011 while the NI unemployment rate peaked at 8.0% in early 2013. Following these peaks, both unemployment rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019, when a low point was recorded for NI at 2.4%. The UK recorded a low point of 3.6% in July-September 2022. Over the most recent year to April-June 2023, the NI unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.7%, while the UK unemployment rate increased by 0.4pps to 4.2%.

The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period April-June 2023 was estimated at 2.7%. This was:

  • an increase of 0.2pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • unchanged from the same period last year.

The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 24,000, which was:

  • up 2,000 from last quarter; and
  • unchanged from the same period last year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 2.7% was 1.5pps below the overall UK rate of 4.2%; and
  • the lowest of the twelve UK regions.

2.2 Claimant count (experimental)

Claimant Count (experimental) consists of all people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) plus those Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. Some claimants are wholly unemployed and seeking work, while others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support.

Key findings

  • Over the month to July 2023, the NI claimant count increased by 1.7% to 37,000.
  • In July 2023, 3.8% of the NI workforce were recorded on the claimant count.

Figure 2: The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate remains higher than the pre-pandemic rate

NI seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, July 2008 to July 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Undercount Rate
Jul 2008 3.0
Aug 2008 3.1
Sep 2008 3.3
Oct 2008 3.5
Nov 2008 3.9
Dec 2008 4.1
Jan 2009 4.3
Feb 2009 4.7
Mar 2009 5.0
Apr 2009 5.2
May 2009 5.4
Jun 2009 5.6
Jul 2009 5.7
Aug 2009 5.8
Sep 2009 5.9
Oct 2009 6.0
Nov 2009 6.0
Dec 2009 6.1
Jan 2010 6.1
Feb 2010 6.1
Mar 2010 6.1
Apr 2010 6.1
May 2010 6.1
Jun 2010 6.2
Jul 2010 6.2
Aug 2010 6.3
Sep 2010 6.4
Oct 2010 6.4
Nov 2010 6.4
Dec 2010 6.4
Jan 2011 6.4
Feb 2011 6.5
Mar 2011 6.5
Apr 2011 6.5
May 2011 6.5
Jun 2011 6.6
Jul 2011 6.7
Aug 2011 6.7
Sep 2011 6.7
Oct 2011 6.7
Nov 2011 6.7
Dec 2011 6.7
Jan 2012 6.9
Feb 2012 6.9
Mar 2012 6.9
Apr 2012 7.0
May 2012 7.0
Jun 2012 7.1
Jul 2012 7.2
Aug 2012 7.1
Sep 2012 7.2
Oct 2012 7.2
Nov 2012 7.2
Dec 2012 7.3
Jan 2013 7.2
Feb 2013 7.2
Mar 2013 7.2
Apr 2013 7.2
May 2013 7.1
Jun 2013 7.0
Jul 2013 7.0
Aug 2013 7.0
Sep 2013 6.9
Oct 2013 6.8
Nov 2013 6.7
Dec 2013 6.6
Jan 2014 6.5
Feb 2014 6.4
Mar 2014 6.3
Apr 2014 6.2
May 2014 6.1
Jun 2014 6.0
Jul 2014 5.8
Aug 2014 5.8
Sep 2014 5.8
Oct 2014 5.7
Nov 2014 5.6
Dec 2014 5.5
Jan 2015 5.4
Feb 2015 5.2
Mar 2015 5.0
Apr 2015 4.9
May 2015 4.8
Jun 2015 4.8
Jul 2015 4.7
Aug 2015 4.6
Sep 2015 4.5
Oct 2015 4.4
Nov 2015 4.4
Dec 2015 4.3
Jan 2016 4.2
Feb 2016 4.2
Mar 2016 4.2
Apr 2016 4.1
May 2016 4.0
Jun 2016 4.0
Jul 2016 3.9
Aug 2016 3.8
Sep 2016 3.8
Oct 2016 3.7
Nov 2016 3.6
Dec 2016 3.6
Jan 2017 3.5
Feb 2017 3.5
Mar 2017 3.4
Apr 2017 3.4
May 2017 3.4
Jun 2017 3.3
Jul 2017 3.3
Aug 2017 3.3
Sep 2017 3.2
Oct 2017 3.2
Nov 2017 3.1
Dec 2017 3.2
Jan 2018 3.1
Feb 2018 3.2
Mar 2018 3.1
Apr 2018 3.1
May 2018 3.1
Jun 2018 3.1
Jul 2018 3.0
Aug 2018 3.0
Sep 2018 3.1
Oct 2018 3.1
Nov 2018 3.2
Dec 2018 3.2
Jan 2019 3.1
Feb 2019 3.1
Mar 2019 3.1
Apr 2019 3.1
May 2019 3.1
Jun 2019 3.1
Jul 2019 3.1
Aug 2019 3.0
Sep 2019 3.1
Oct 2019 3.2
Nov 2019 3.2
Dec 2019 3.2
Jan 2020 3.0
Feb 2020 3.0
Mar 2020 3.0
Apr 2020 5.7
May 2020 6.5
Jun 2020 6.3
Jul 2020 6.3
Aug 2020 6.3
Sep 2020 6.1
Oct 2020 6.0
Nov 2020 6.0
Dec 2020 5.9
Jan 2021 5.9
Feb 2021 6.1
Mar 2021 6.0
Apr 2021 6.0
May 2021 5.7
Jun 2021 5.4
Jul 2021 5.3
Aug 2021 5.1
Sep 2021 5.0
Oct 2021 4.9
Nov 2021 4.6
Dec 2021 4.4
Jan 2022 4.1
Feb 2022 4.0
Mar 2022 3.9
Apr 2022 3.8
May 2022 3.7
Jun 2022 3.7
Jul 2022 3.7
Aug 2022 3.6
Sep 2022 3.7
Oct 2022 3.7
Nov 2022 3.7
Dec 2022 3.7
Jan 2023 3.7
Feb 2023 3.6
Mar 2023 3.7
Apr 2023 3.8
May 2023 3.7
Jun 2023 3.7
Jul 2023 3.8


In July 2023, 37,000 people were recorded on the NI Claimant Count. This is 42.4% less than the recent peak in May 2020 and 23.8% more than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020. The increases in the claimant count between March 2020 and May 2020 can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced due to COVID, resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold.

The NI seasonally adjusted claimant count was 37,000 (3.8% of the workforce) in July 2023, representing:

  • a increase of 600 (1.7%) over the month
  • an increase of 0.5% in males and an increase of 3.4% in females over the month
  • an increase of 1,300 (3.7%) over the year, and
  • an increase of 7,100 (23.8%) since March 2020.

UK regional comparison:

  • The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 1.9% over the month to 1,571,900 (4.0% of the workforce).
  • The UK count is 41.8% below the recent peak in August 2020 and 27.8% above the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

2.3 Redundancies

Redundancies: Companies must inform the Department of (a) impending redundancies of 20 or more employees and (b) subsequent confirmed redundancies. Since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Key findings

  • 40 redundancies were confirmed in July 2023, taking the annual total to 1,340, which was 11.3% more than the previous year (1,200).
  • There were 250 proposed redundancies in July 2023, taking the annual total to 4,370, which was almost three and a half times the figure for the previous year (1,260).

Figure 3: Latest twelve month total of proposed redundancies almost three and a half times previous year; confirmed redundancies remain below long-term trend

NI confirmed and proposed redundancies, Annual totals, Aug 2007-Jul 2008 to Aug 2022-Jul 2023
Chart
Table
Year Proposed Confirmed
2008 2,910 1,640
2009 5,980 4,680
2010 3,550 3,030
2011 2,420 1,960
2012 3,710 2,120
2013 2,810 3,190
2014 3,130 2,100
2015 3,540 1,910
2016 4,890 3,230
2017 2,980 2,240
2018 3,570 2,910
2019 3,520 1,790
2020 8,790 3,180
2021 6,090 5,760
2022 1,260 1,200
2023 4,370 1,340


Redundancy notification data generally shows a high degree of correlation between proposed and confirmed redundancies when grouped by year. The graph above shows that, generally the number of proposed redundancies is higher than confirmed redundancies indicating that not all proposed redundancies take place.

250 redundancies were proposed in July 2023. This month’s proposed redundancies take the latest rolling twelve-month total to 4,370. This is the highest rolling twelve-month total since August 2021 and is similar to the trend seen before the pandemic.

The July 2023 total of confirmed redundancies (40) was below the monthly average seen in 2022 (60). Whilst the rolling twelve-month total for the most recent period (1,340) remains below the long term trend, it has now been above 1,000 for the last five months.

Confirmed redundancies

During July 2023, the Department was notified of:

  • 40 confirmed redundancies, two thirds of the monthly average (60) during 2022.

Over the latest twelve month period there were:

  • 1,340 confirmed redundancies, which was 11.3% more than the previous year (1,200).
  • 320 confirmed redundancies (24.0%) in the manufacturing sector.
  • 290 confirmed redundancies (21.6%) in the transportation and storage sector.
  • 220 confirmed redundancies (16.3%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.

Proposed redundancies

During July 2023, the Department was notified of:

  • 250 proposed redundancies, almost double the monthly average (130) during 2022.

Over the last twelve months, to the end of July 2023, there were:

  • 4,370 proposed redundancies, which was almost three and a half times the figure for the previous year (1,260).
  • 1,240 proposed redundancies (28.3%) in the administrative and support service activities sector.
  • 800 proposed redundancies (18.3%) in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector.
  • 510 proposed redundancies (11.7%) in the transportation and storage sector.


3. Employment

3.1 LFS employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The NI employment rate for April-June 2023 decreased over the quarter and increased over the year to 71.4%.
  • The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.7%.

Figure 4: Similar trend in NI and UK employment rates over the last 15 years

Seasonally adjusted employment rate (Aged 16 to 64), Apr-Jun 2008 to Apr-Jun 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Apr-Jun 2008 68.7 72.9
Jul-Sep 2008 68.1 72.4
Oct-Dec 2008 66.8 72.2
Jan-Mar 2009 64.8 71.7
Apr-Jun 2009 64.0 70.8
Jul-Sep 2009 64.5 70.6
Oct-Dec 2009 65.6 70.6
Jan-Mar 2010 65.9 70.2
Apr-Jun 2010 66.3 70.4
Jul-Sep 2010 66.2 70.7
Oct-Dec 2010 65.9 70.4
Jan-Mar 2011 66.9 70.5
Apr-Jun 2011 67.7 70.5
Jul-Sep 2011 67.3 70.1
Oct-Dec 2011 67.6 70.2
Jan-Mar 2012 67.4 70.5
Apr-Jun 2012 67.0 70.9
Jul-Sep 2012 67.3 71.1
Oct-Dec 2012 67.1 71.4
Jan-Mar 2013 66.4 71.2
Apr-Jun 2013 66.3 71.3
Jul-Sep 2013 67.0 71.7
Oct-Dec 2013 67.6 72.0
Jan-Mar 2014 67.7 72.5
Apr-Jun 2014 68.3 72.8
Jul-Sep 2014 68.4 73.0
Oct-Dec 2014 67.7 73.2
Jan-Mar 2015 68.2 73.4
Apr-Jun 2015 67.8 73.4
Jul-Sep 2015 67.9 73.8
Oct-Dec 2015 68.7 74.1
Jan-Mar 2016 69.2 74.1
Apr-Jun 2016 69.2 74.4
Jul-Sep 2016 70.1 74.4
Oct-Dec 2016 69.8 74.6
Jan-Mar 2017 68.4 74.8
Apr-Jun 2017 69.4 75.1
Jul-Sep 2017 68.3 75.0
Oct-Dec 2017 68.6 75.2
Jan-Mar 2018 69.8 75.6
Apr-Jun 2018 69.6 75.5
Jul-Sep 2018 69.4 75.6
Oct-Dec 2018 70.3 75.8
Jan-Mar 2019 71.3 76.1
Apr-Jun 2019 72.2 76.1
Jul-Sep 2019 72.3 76.0
Oct-Dec 2019 72.4 76.5
Jan-Mar 2020 71.8 76.3
Apr-Jun 2020 69.9 75.7
Jul-Sep 2020 69.9 74.9
Oct-Dec 2020 68.2 74.6
Jan-Mar 2021 67.9 74.7
Apr-Jun 2021 68.7 75.0
Jul-Sep 2021 68.1 75.3
Oct-Dec 2021 68.8 75.5
Jan-Mar 2022 70.6 75.6
Apr-Jun 2022 69.7 75.5
Jul-Sep 2022 70.1 75.5
Oct-Dec 2022 71.9 75.6
Jan-Mar 2023 72.0 75.9
Apr-Jun 2023 71.4 75.7


Figure 4 shows that, over the last 15 years, the NI employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in NI between 2008 and 2009 (by almost 5pps) was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. Similarly, the fall between 2019 and 2021 was steeper for NI than the UK as a whole, following peak rates recorded for both towards the end of 2019. For the most recent period, the NI employment rate was 0.9pps below the pre-pandemic rate of 72.4% recorded in October-December 2019, while the UK rate was 0.7pps below the rate of 76.5% recorded in October-December 2019.

The most recent NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period April-June 2023 was estimated at 71.4%. This was:

  • a decrease of 0.6pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • an increase of 1.7pps over the year (not statistically significant);

The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 867,000, which was:

  • down 9,000 from last quarter; and
  • up 14,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) included:

  • the male employment rate (74.7%) increased by 1.3pps over the year; and
  • the female employment rate (68.2%) increased by 2.2pps over the year.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 71.4% was 4.3pps below the overall UK rate of 75.7%; and
  • the lowest of the twelve UK regions.

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Self-employment:

  • In April-June 2023, there were 100,000 self-employed, 3,000 less than a year ago, and 34,000 lower (25.2%) than the pre-pandemic figure in October-December 2019.
  • The proportion who were self-employed (11.6%) remains below the pre-pandemic proportion (15.3% recorded in October-December 2019).

Employment by Age:

  • In April-June 2023, those aged 35 to 49 had the highest employment rate (81.5%), whilst those aged 16 to 24 had the lowest (54.5%). These rates are similar to the pre-pandemic rates in October-December 2019 (83.1% and 55.7% respectively).

3.2 Total weekly hours

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Key findings

  • The total number of weekly hours worked in April-June 2023 was estimated at 28.7 million hours per week.
  • This was a decrease of 0.8% on the previous quarter and an increase of 2.9% on the same period last year.

Figure 5: Hours worked similar to pre-pandemic levels

Total weekly hours worked (Age 16 and over), Apr-Jun 2008 to Apr-Jun 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Total weekly hours
Apr-Jun 2008 27.7
Jul-Sep 2008 26.5
Oct-Dec 2008 26.1
Jan-Mar 2009 25.7
Apr-Jun 2009 25.8
Jul-Sep 2009 24.3
Oct-Dec 2009 25.4
Jan-Mar 2010 25.8
Apr-Jun 2010 26.2
Jul-Sep 2010 24.5
Oct-Dec 2010 24.7
Jan-Mar 2011 26.7
Apr-Jun 2011 26.6
Jul-Sep 2011 25.3
Oct-Dec 2011 25.3
Jan-Mar 2012 26.5
Apr-Jun 2012 26.4
Jul-Sep 2012 26.1
Oct-Dec 2012 26.2
Jan-Mar 2013 26.6
Apr-Jun 2013 26.7
Jul-Sep 2013 26.5
Oct-Dec 2013 26.4
Jan-Mar 2014 27.2
Apr-Jun 2014 27.6
Jul-Sep 2014 27.2
Oct-Dec 2014 27.1
Jan-Mar 2015 27.8
Apr-Jun 2015 27.1
Jul-Sep 2015 26.1
Oct-Dec 2015 25.9
Jan-Mar 2016 27.5
Apr-Jun 2016 28.4
Jul-Sep 2016 26.5
Oct-Dec 2016 27.5
Jan-Mar 2017 28.0
Apr-Jun 2017 28.0
Jul-Sep 2017 26.7
Oct-Dec 2017 27.6
Jan-Mar 2018 28.3
Apr-Jun 2018 28.8
Jul-Sep 2018 27.6
Oct-Dec 2018 28.3
Jan-Mar 2019 29.3
Apr-Jun 2019 29.6
Jul-Sep 2019 28.9
Oct-Dec 2019 29.1
Jan-Mar 2020 28.5
Apr-Jun 2020 22.9
Jul-Sep 2020 25.4
Oct-Dec 2020 24.6
Jan-Mar 2021 25.1
Apr-Jun 2021 26.6
Jul-Sep 2021 26.1
Oct-Dec 2021 26.3
Jan-Mar 2022 28.0
Apr-Jun 2022 27.8
Jul-Sep 2022 26.5
Oct-Dec 2022 27.9
Jan-Mar 2023 28.9
Apr-Jun 2023 28.7


Figure 5 illustrates that, like many labour market indicators, total weekly hours worked shows a seasonal pattern. Outside of these seasonal variations, a trend of increasing weekly hours worked can be seen between 2009 and the end of 2019, prior to a sharp fall between January-March 2020 and April-June 2020. From early-2021 onwards, the increasing trend has returned, and at a steeper rate than before the pandemic. In the latest results, total hours worked are similar to the pre-pandemic levels and not quite at the peak levels seen in mid 2019. Hours worked in April-June 2023 were 3.3% below the peak of 29.6 million hours in April-June 2019.

The total number of weekly hours worked in NI in April-June 2023 was estimated at 28.7 million hours, this was:

  • a decrease of 0.2 million hours (0.8%) on the previous quarter;
  • an increase of 0.8 million hours (2.9%) from the same period last year (not statistically significant); and
  • 0.5 million hours, or 1.7%, below the pre-pandemic (October-December 2019) figure.

The average number of weekly hours worked in April-June 2023 was estimated at 37.6 hours for those in full-time employment, and at 17.6 hours for those in part-time employment (for main jobs only, any second jobs are excluded). By sex:

  • for those in full-time employment, the average weekly hours worked for males was 39.9 hours, whereas for females it was 34.3 hours.
  • for those in part-time employment, the average weekly hours worked for males was 18.1 hours, whereas for females it was 17.4 hours.

3.3 Employees (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Payrolled employee counts (experimental) from the HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include those who are self-employed. Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK. As employees who were “furloughed” as part of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme programme should still have had their payments reported through this system, they should feature in these data.

Key findings

  • The number of payrolled employees in NI increased by 0.4% over the month and increased by 1.9% over the year to July 2023.
  • In the UK, the number of payrolled employees increased by 0.3% over the month and increased by 1.9% over the year to July 2023.

Figure 6: Number of payrolled employees increased over the month

NI payrolled employees (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to July 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland
Jul 2014 674,107
Aug 2014 675,770
Sep 2014 676,916
Oct 2014 678,063
Nov 2014 679,541
Dec 2014 679,459
Jan 2015 684,251
Feb 2015 686,035
Mar 2015 687,728
Apr 2015 690,524
May 2015 691,434
Jun 2015 693,779
Jul 2015 695,340
Aug 2015 696,851
Sep 2015 699,456
Oct 2015 699,879
Nov 2015 700,605
Dec 2015 700,617
Jan 2016 702,179
Feb 2016 702,608
Mar 2016 703,839
Apr 2016 703,923
May 2016 704,671
Jun 2016 704,760
Jul 2016 705,280
Aug 2016 706,281
Sep 2016 707,911
Oct 2016 709,126
Nov 2016 711,456
Dec 2016 712,802
Jan 2017 711,484
Feb 2017 713,126
Mar 2017 714,413
Apr 2017 715,915
May 2017 717,507
Jun 2017 718,942
Jul 2017 719,443
Aug 2017 721,569
Sep 2017 723,053
Oct 2017 724,239
Nov 2017 725,315
Dec 2017 729,005
Jan 2018 728,429
Feb 2018 729,822
Mar 2018 730,291
Apr 2018 732,074
May 2018 733,122
Jun 2018 733,872
Jul 2018 735,041
Aug 2018 736,706
Sep 2018 738,061
Oct 2018 739,927
Nov 2018 740,576
Dec 2018 741,620
Jan 2019 742,688
Feb 2019 743,845
Mar 2019 745,213
Apr 2019 746,647
May 2019 746,634
Jun 2019 745,518
Jul 2019 747,789
Aug 2019 747,999
Sep 2019 748,468
Oct 2019 748,985
Nov 2019 750,621
Dec 2019 750,315
Jan 2020 752,223
Feb 2020 753,577
Mar 2020 753,832
Apr 2020 743,146
May 2020 742,327
Jun 2020 741,779
Jul 2020 742,885
Aug 2020 738,226
Sep 2020 738,622
Oct 2020 737,895
Nov 2020 736,470
Dec 2020 736,690
Jan 2021 738,538
Feb 2021 738,951
Mar 2021 740,485
Apr 2021 742,189
May 2021 748,429
Jun 2021 755,594
Jul 2021 761,011
Aug 2021 760,637
Sep 2021 761,664
Oct 2021 762,965
Nov 2021 765,632
Dec 2021 767,976
Jan 2022 769,494
Feb 2022 770,797
Mar 2022 772,860
Apr 2022 774,877
May 2022 776,152
Jun 2022 776,230
Jul 2022 777,851
Aug 2022 780,993
Sep 2022 780,334
Oct 2022 781,551
Nov 2022 782,820
Dec 2022 784,495
Jan 2023 783,424
Feb 2023 785,573
Mar 2023 789,505
Apr 2023 788,803
May 2023 789,100
Jun 2023 789,572
Jul 2023 792,985


Between 2014 and 2020, the number of payrolled employees had generally been increasing each month, peaking at around 754,000 in March 2020. This was followed by a sharp decrease of almost 11,000 employees (1.4%) to April 2020. Employee numbers then remained at a similar level until April 2021.

Between April 2021 and March 2023, the trend in the number of payrolled employees was generally upward. This was followed by a three month plateau in numbers, however, the most recent month has seen an increase once again.

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • 793,000 people were payrolled employees in July 2023, a 0.4% increase from the previous month and a 1.9% increase over the year.
  • in the UK, there were 30,230,200 payrolled employees in July 2023, a 0.3% increase from the previous month and a 1.9% increase over the year.
  • all regions of the UK increased over the year to July 2023, where changes ranged from an increase of 1.5% in Scotland to an increase of 2.4% in London. The increase in Northern Ireland (1.9%) was the same as the increase recorded for the UK as a whole.
  • between March 2020 and July 2023, all regions of the UK recorded an increase in payrolled employees (4.3% overall). Northern Ireland recorded the largest increase (5.2%) while Scotland recorded the lowest (3.3%).

3.4 Earnings (experimental) from HMRC PAYE RTI

Median measures the amount earned by the average employee, i.e. the level of earnings at which half the population are above and half the population are below.

Key findings

  • Median monthly pay in NI was £2,103 in July 2023, unchanged over the month and an increase of 7.5% (£147) over the year.
  • UK median monthly pay decreased by 1.5% (£34) over the month to £2,274 in July 2023 and increased by 7.8% (£164) over the year.

Figure 7: Median monthly pay was unchanged over the month in NI and decreased in the UK

Median Monthly Pay (experimental) from PAYE RTI, July 2014 to July 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland UK
Jul 2014 1490 1598
Aug 2014 1488 1601
Sep 2014 1488 1601
Oct 2014 1494 1605
Nov 2014 1498 1608
Dec 2014 1514 1617
Jan 2015 1500 1620
Feb 2015 1494 1620
Mar 2015 1501 1618
Apr 2015 1500 1614
May 2015 1498 1615
Jun 2015 1492 1616
Jul 2015 1493 1620
Aug 2015 1488 1616
Sep 2015 1494 1618
Oct 2015 1496 1626
Nov 2015 1494 1630
Dec 2015 1497 1631
Jan 2016 1502 1638
Feb 2016 1508 1640
Mar 2016 1516 1646
Apr 2016 1516 1652
May 2016 1514 1652
Jun 2016 1516 1654
Jul 2016 1520 1659
Aug 2016 1526 1659
Sep 2016 1527 1664
Oct 2016 1523 1663
Nov 2016 1530 1666
Dec 2016 1528 1668
Jan 2017 1533 1668
Feb 2017 1535 1677
Mar 2017 1546 1686
Apr 2017 1542 1689
May 2017 1544 1691
Jun 2017 1556 1694
Jul 2017 1555 1693
Aug 2017 1560 1699
Sep 2017 1563 1704
Oct 2017 1565 1706
Nov 2017 1572 1713
Dec 2017 1576 1721
Jan 2018 1570 1724
Feb 2018 1590 1728
Mar 2018 1586 1731
Apr 2018 1592 1730
May 2018 1604 1750
Jun 2018 1613 1756
Jul 2018 1612 1751
Aug 2018 1619 1771
Sep 2018 1620 1761
Oct 2018 1631 1767
Nov 2018 1635 1778
Dec 2018 1632 1772
Jan 2019 1647 1782
Feb 2019 1688 1791
Mar 2019 1660 1801
Apr 2019 1669 1810
May 2019 1680 1817
Jun 2019 1678 1812
Jul 2019 1680 1819
Aug 2019 1682 1824
Sep 2019 1685 1819
Oct 2019 1691 1825
Nov 2019 1688 1830
Dec 2019 1672 1835
Jan 2020 1702 1850
Feb 2020 1710 1860
Mar 2020 1743 1847
Apr 2020 1656 1793
May 2020 1665 1801
Jun 2020 1717 1829
Jul 2020 1742 1859
Aug 2020 1747 1880
Sep 2020 1767 1896
Oct 2020 1777 1911
Nov 2020 1779 1913
Dec 2020 1784 1924
Jan 2021 1784 1927
Feb 2021 1791 1942
Mar 2021 1797 1950
Apr 2021 1813 1965
May 2021 1808 1967
Jun 2021 1835 1976
Jul 2021 1878 1979
Aug 2021 1820 1987
Sep 2021 1849 2002
Oct 2021 1855 2010
Nov 2021 1858 2016
Dec 2021 1903 2034
Jan 2022 1935 2047
Feb 2022 1914 2053
Mar 2022 1931 2078
Apr 2022 1933 2080
May 2022 1944 2091
Jun 2022 1956 2104
Jul 2022 1956 2110
Aug 2022 1971 2120
Sep 2022 1964 2139
Oct 2022 1979 2148
Nov 2022 2011 2191
Dec 2022 2010 2188
Jan 2023 2036 2193
Feb 2023 2051 2207
Mar 2023 2116 2218
Apr 2023 2057 2232
May 2023 2083 2266
Jun 2023 2104 2308
Jul 2023 2103 2274


Median employee pay in NI and the UK increased overall between mid-2015 and early 2020. In NI, a sharp increase of 1.9% in median pay was recorded between February and March 2020, followed by a decrease of 5.0% between March and April 2020. The UK also saw a decrease between March and April 2020 of 2.9%. These monthly decreases coincided with decreases in the number of paid employees recorded in April 2020.

From April 2020, median employee pay has shown an upward trend, however in recent months some volatility has been seen in the NI results. An increase of 3.2% was recorded in March 2023, followed by a decrease of 2.8% in April 2023. These changes were driven by a backdated local pay award paid in March 2023, which caused a significantly large increase (29.4%) in March 2023 and significantly large decrease (22.7%) in April 2023 in Health and social work sector earnings. Whilst May and June 2023 saw increases (1.3% and 1.0% respectively), the most recent month saw no change. The latest earnings (£2,103) are now 20.7% higher than the pre-pandemic level recorded in March 2020 (£1,743).

Data from the latest HMRC PAYE RTI show that:

  • NI had a median monthly pay of £2,103 in July 2023, which was unchanged from the previous month and an increase of 7.5% from July 2022.
  • UK had a median monthly pay of £2,274 in July 2023, which was a decrease of 1.5% on the previous month and an increase of 7.8% from July 2022.
  • NI had the fourth lowest annual increase of the 12 UK regions, and has the lowest median monthly pay in the UK. London had the highest median pay (£2,732).
  • Since March 2020, earnings in NI have increased by 20.7%, 2.5pps lower than the increase in the UK (23.1%) and lowest of all the UK regions.


4. Economic inactivity

4.1 LFS Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The economic inactivity rate increased over the quarter and decreased over the year to 26.6%.
  • The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.9%.

Figure 8: NI economic inactivity consistently above UK average

Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (Aged 16 to 64), Apr-Jun 2008 to Apr-Jun 2023
Chart

Note: graph has a non-zero axis

Table
Date Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Apr-Jun 2008 28.5 22.9
Jul-Sep 2008 28.9 23.0
Oct-Dec 2008 29.5 22.9
Jan-Mar 2009 30.8 22.8
Apr-Jun 2009 31.5 23.1
Jul-Sep 2009 30.6 23.3
Oct-Dec 2009 30.1 23.4
Jan-Mar 2010 29.2 23.6
Apr-Jun 2010 28.9 23.5
Jul-Sep 2010 28.8 23.2
Oct-Dec 2010 28.3 23.5
Jan-Mar 2011 27.8 23.4
Apr-Jun 2011 26.8 23.3
Jul-Sep 2011 27.3 23.4
Oct-Dec 2011 27.2 23.2
Jan-Mar 2012 27.6 23.1
Apr-Jun 2012 27.3 22.8
Jul-Sep 2012 27.0 22.7
Oct-Dec 2012 27.2 22.4
Jan-Mar 2013 27.7 22.6
Apr-Jun 2013 28.3 22.5
Jul-Sep 2013 27.5 22.3
Oct-Dec 2013 27.0 22.3
Jan-Mar 2014 27.0 22.2
Apr-Jun 2014 26.8 22.2
Jul-Sep 2014 27.0 22.2
Oct-Dec 2014 28.0 22.3
Jan-Mar 2015 27.1 22.1
Apr-Jun 2015 27.4 22.1
Jul-Sep 2015 27.6 22.0
Oct-Dec 2015 26.9 21.8
Jan-Mar 2016 26.1 21.8
Apr-Jun 2016 26.4 21.6
Jul-Sep 2016 25.6 21.7
Oct-Dec 2016 26.1 21.6
Jan-Mar 2017 27.6 21.6
Apr-Jun 2017 26.8 21.3
Jul-Sep 2017 28.8 21.6
Oct-Dec 2017 28.4 21.3
Jan-Mar 2018 27.9 21.1
Apr-Jun 2018 27.6 21.2
Jul-Sep 2018 27.7 21.1
Oct-Dec 2018 26.8 20.9
Jan-Mar 2019 26.5 20.8
Apr-Jun 2019 25.5 20.7
Jul-Sep 2019 25.8 20.8
Oct-Dec 2019 25.8 20.5
Jan-Mar 2020 26.4 20.4
Apr-Jun 2020 28.0 21.0
Jul-Sep 2020 27.5 21.1
Oct-Dec 2020 29.0 21.2
Jan-Mar 2021 29.2 21.4
Apr-Jun 2021 28.1 21.2
Jul-Sep 2021 28.7 21.2
Oct-Dec 2021 28.9 21.3
Jan-Mar 2022 27.5 21.4
Apr-Jun 2022 28.3 21.4
Jul-Sep 2022 27.7 21.6
Oct-Dec 2022 26.3 21.4
Jan-Mar 2023 26.1 21.0
Apr-Jun 2023 26.6 20.9


Figure 8 shows that, over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in NI has been consistently higher than the UK average with more variability in economic inactivity in NI than the UK. Economic inactivity in NI peaked during this time-period in 2009 at over 31%, compared to the lower peak in the UK rate of almost 24% at the beginning of 2010.

During the ten years to 2019, the trend for both the UK and NI economic inactivity rates was generally downward. From the onset of the COVID pandemic, both UK and NI economic inactivity rates increased. Although both NI and UK rates remain higher than the pre-pandemic period (October-December 2019), by 0.7pps and 0.4pps respectively, NI has seen a decrease of 1.8pps over the year, whilst the UK rate has seen a smaller decrease of 0.6pps over the year.

The economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for April-June 2023 was estimated at 26.6%, which was:

  • an increase of 0.4pps over the quarter (not statistically significant); and
  • a decrease of 1.8pps over the year (not statistically significant).

The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in NI was estimated at 596,000, which was:

  • up 9,000 from last quarter; and
  • down 9,000 from the same period last year.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) included:

  • a decrease of 1.7pps over the year in the male economic inactivity rate to 22.5%; and
  • a decrease of 1.8pps over the year in the female economic inactivity rate to 30.5%.

UK regional comparison:

  • The NI economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 26.6% was 5.7pps above the overall UK rate of 20.9%; and
  • the highest of the twelve UK regions.

Please note that the following estimates are not adjusted for seasonality.

Reasons for inactivity:

  • In April-June 2023, the most common reason for economic inactivity among the working age population was ‘long-term sick’. There were 124,000 ‘long-term sick’, accounting for 39.6% of the total economically inactive (aged 16 to 64), or 10.5% of the working age population. This was 3,000 (+2.2%) higher than the same period last year and 20,000 (+19.0%) higher than the pre-pandemic figure in October-December 2019.
  • Compared to the pre-pandemic figures in October-December 2019, there has been an increase in the number of ‘long-term sick’ (+20,000) and ‘student’ (+4,000), however the totals for ‘family and home care’ (-9,000) and ‘retired’ (-4,000) have decreased.

Inactivity by Age:

  • In April-June 2023, those aged 65 and over (286,000) made up the highest proportion (47.8%) of the total economically inactive (age 16 and over), with those aged 25 to 34 (43,000) making up the lowest proportion (7.2%) across the age groups.
  • Those aged 65 and over had the highest economic inactivity rate (90.5%), whilst those aged 35 to 49 had the lowest (17.3%). These rates are similar to the pre-pandemic rates in October-December 2019 (90.1% and 15.3% respectively).


5. Further Information

General Information

The Labour Market Report is a monthly overview of key labour market statistics for NI. It includes figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), claimant count, redundancies counts, and HMRC PAYE statistics. The LMR also contains an overview from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in March, June, September and December. More information about the data sources can be found in the LMR Supplementary Document.

New Labour Market Report (LMR) format

The September 2022 LMR publication marked the first release in HTML format, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP). The content and format of the report and monthly tables changed to make them more user friendly and interactive, enhancing accessibility, and increasing automation in their production. As the tables changed, a mapping document (please note, this link will automatically download the file) was created showing the relationship between the old and new tables.

In addition, the LMR, data tables and supplementary documents are now available on one webpage. Individual data source pages contain links directing users to the most recent data on the LMR publication page.

We welcome feedback from users on the Labour Market Report (see Contacts).

Comparison between data sources

Although the broad concepts are similar across sources contained within this release, differences in reference periods, definitions, and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics. Additional information can be found in the LMR supplementary document, including comparisons between:

  • LFS unemployment and experimental claimant count
  • LFS employment and the number of paid employees from HMRC PAYE RTI
  • LFS employment and QES employee jobs
  • HMRC PAYE RTI and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
  • Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and HMRC PAYE RTI

More information is also available in the comparison of labour market data sources article by ONS.

Seasonal adjustment

All estimates discussed in this report are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar and allows comparison over months or quarters.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a sample survey. Estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability which means if we drew many samples, each would give a different result. The sampling variability of the Northern Ireland estimates can be found in Table 2.49 of the LFS monthly tables, published alongside this report on the NISRA website. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value.

Alternative release time

The NI Labour Market Report is released at 7am. This is an ‘alternative release time’ agreed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and differs from the standard 9.30am release time for the majority of statistical reports.

Labour Force Survey

Response rates

The total eligible sample for April to June 2023 consisted of 3,820 addresses (1,172 chosen at random from the Land and Property Services (LPS) list of domestic properties and 2,648 carried forward from the previous quarter). A random start, fixed interval sampling technique of the addresses, which are ordered by Council Area and Ward, is used. This ensures a proportional representation across the Council Areas in Northern Ireland. Only private household addresses are eligible and every selected address is interviewed on five successive occasions over five quarters. This means there is an 80% sample overlap between quarters. The achieved sample size has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Table 1 is updated on a quarterly basis – additional information can be found in the supplementary document.

Table 1: Response rates, April-June 2023

Statistic Figure
Fully and partially responding 2,590
Eligible sample 3,820
Response rate (%) 67.8%

LFS revisions

LFS microdata are routinely revised to incorporate the latest population estimates. The population totals used for the latest LFS estimates use projected growth rates from RTI data for UK, EU and non-EU populations based on 2021 patterns. The total population used for the LFS therefore does not take into account any changes in migration, birth rates, death rates etc. since June 2021 and hence levels estimates may be under- or over-estimating the true values and should be used with caution. Estimates of rates will, however, be robust.

In June 2022, the LFS estimates were reweighted from January-March 2020 to January-March 2022 using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data. An overview of the impact of reweighting on the NI estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website. This webpage also contains the detail on two previous LFS reweightings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in October 2020 and July 2021.

LFS comparisons

Estimates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity are derived from the LFS. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates over separate three-month periods, commonly known as 3 month rolling averages. For example, estimates relating to April-June 2023 should be compared with the estimates for January-March 2023. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for March-May 2023, as the April and May data are included within both estimates. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the NI population over a three-month period, not for a single month period.

Suppression and shading

Estimates based on fewer than 3 events are suppressed to prevent disclosure. In tables, shading is used to draw attention to lower statistical quality/precision of estimates that are based on a smaller sample size. Shaded estimates still provide the best estimate of the size of a group but comparison across time or between groups with similar values should be avoided. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

Due to the small sample sizes and the effect this may have on the precision of the figures, estimates for long-term unemployment, youth unemployment and annual changes in unemployment by sex have not been included in this bulletin this month.

Claimant Count

Experimental claimant count

This measure is categorised as experimental as the statistics are in the testing phase and not yet fully developed. ONS have produced a useful Guide to Experimental Statistics, and an FAQ document explaining the difference between the previous measure and this experimental measure is available on the changes to the claimant count page.

Claimant count revisions

Seasonally adjusted estimates are revised on a regular basis. Each month the previous estimate is revised in line with the current seasonal adjustment model, giving the best estimate of change for the latest period.

Also, a seasonal adjustment review takes place once a year. Typically, the last 3 years are revised and this takes the most recent year of data into account when determining the seasonal adjustment model. These revisions affect only the seasonally adjusted data.

Claimant count undercount correction note

A number of claims across the UK to the UC element of the Claimant Count were coded to incorrect locations for data relating to December 2018 to November 2019. This has been corrected for December 2019 onwards, but previous periods remain affected. The impact of the revision on NI for December 2019 was an increase of fewer than 1,000 cases.

Percentage of workforce

The number of claimants as a percentage of workforce jobs plus claimants. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs, self-employment jobs, HM Forces, and government-supported trainees. This measure is only available at the NI level.

Redundancies

To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the NISRA website.

HMRC PAYE Real Time Information

Age breakdowns are published in January, April, July and October, and industry sector breakdowns published in February, May, August and November. Data are subject to revisions.

Further information on UK monthly pay, UK pay distribution, methodology, data source, collection, and coverage of PAYE RTI data, as well as information on imputation and revisions can be found on the Earnings and employment from PAYE page.


The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for their co-operation in agreeing to take part in the surveys and for facilitating the collection of the relevant data.


6. Contacts

For further information contact:

Labour Force Survey, Claimant Count, and Redundancies

Mark McFetridge
Email:

HMRC PAYE

Ashleigh Warwick
Email:


Web: Labour Market and Social Welfare
Twitter: NISRA

National Statistics logo

7. National Statistics Status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics were designated as National Statistics in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for statistics. A compliance check in March 2020 recommended the continued designation of the report as a National Statistic. These statistics were considered as part of a wider assessment of the UK employment and jobs statistics.

Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

  • New HTML Labour Market Report and monthly tables, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP) to enhance usability and accessibility (in line with regulations) and increase automation of production;
  • Providing more context to results by setting recent changes within context of longer term trends;
  • Removed pre-release access to enhance trustworthiness, and brought forward the publication date as a result;
  • Improved timeliness of quarterly labour force survey tables (ranging from 1 week to 3 months) by incorporating quarterly tables in the main Labour Market Report Publication;
  • Improved quality of the LFS data by boosting the sample size and improving precision around headline estimates (Please note, sample sizes decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to difficulty of collecting survey information from households, but have since returned to pre-pandemic levels);
  • Reviewed and updated quality protocols for release for LFS data;
  • Improved accessibility of labour market statistics by changing the release dates of statistics to avoid public holidays;
  • Included additional administrative sources of labour market data to provide a fuller picture of the labour market;
  • Changed the timing of release in line with change in ONS release practices in response to COVID-19 where the exemption has now been transferred to an alternative release time of 7am as agreed by the OSR.