1. Overview

This summary provides key labour market results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the year ending 31st December 2021. Headline employment, unemployment and economic inactivity estimates are included.

1.1 Key points

The Northern Ireland (NI) unemployment rate (aged 16 and over) in 2021 was estimated at 3.7%. The unemployment rate increased from the previous year (2.9%) by 0.8 percentage points (pps), and was 1.2pps higher than the low point in 2019 (2.6%). The annual change was statistically significant.

2. Unemployment
The 2021 employment rate (proportion of those aged 16 to 64 in work) in NI was estimated at 70.2%. The NI employment rate increased from the previous year (69.8%) by 0.4 percentage points (pps). The 2021 rate was 1.7pps below the peak employment rate for NI in 2019 (71.9%). The annual change was not statistically significant.

3. Employment
The 2021 economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working nor seeking or available to work) in NI was estimated at 27.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points (pps) over the year. The annual change was not statistically significant.

4. Economic inactivity

1.2 Context

This report provides the first release of annual data for 2021 from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). This report provides updated economic headline estimates and includes trends over time, with comparisons made with the year before or over the decade. The LFS is the largest regular household survey in Northern Ireland.

The Use of Economic and Labour Market Business and Household Surveys page provides recent examples of how data collected from the Labour Force Survey is used to inform, develop and monitor evidence-based policies. A Labour Market Outputs consultation in summer 2019 Labour Market Statistics User Engagement page showed labour market statistics are also used in academic and private sector research. Significant non-governmental users of labour market statistics include the media, banks, academics, private consultants, and the general public. User requested analysis is published on the NISRA website.

1.3 Things users need to know

Today’s publication marks the first release of the LFS Annual Summary Report in HTML format, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP). We welcome feedback from users on the new format (see Contacts).

This publication contains the first release of 2021 annual data for headline economic indicators, following the recent reweighting of the Labour Force Survey data using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data (impacting LFS datasets back to January 2020). As a result, data for January to December 2020 has been reweighted in this release alongside the first estimates of 2021 data. See the LFS revisions section for more detail.

The Labour Force Survey Tables for Local Government Districts have also been updated today, including the first release of 2021 data and revised 2020 data following the latest reweighting of the LFS.

Further breakdowns of annual data are planned for the November and users will be kept informed in due course.

The Labour Market Statistics User Group took place online on Thursday 29th September 2022. All NISRA presentations are available on the Labour Market Statistics User Group 2022 page of the NISRA website. Other documents relating to the meeting will be added to this page in due course.


2. Unemployment

LFS unemployment: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployed as those aged 16 and over without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Key findings

  • The unemployment rate (16 and over) in NI for 2021 was estimated at 3.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points (pps) over the year and a decrease of 3.5pps over the decade.
  • Following a general decline in the unemployment rate between 2013 and the record low in 2019 (2.6%), the unemployment rate has increased over the last two years to 2021.
  • The number of unemployed persons aged 16 and over in 2021 was estimated at 33,000, an increase of 7,000 over the year and a decrease of 29,000 over the decade.
  • The unemployment rate (16 and over) for males in 2021 was estimated at 4.3% and the female rate was estimated at 3.1%.

Of those aged 16 and over who were unemployed in 2021, 60% (20,000) were male and 40% (13,000) were female. The changes by gender included:

  • The male (16 and over) unemployment rate (4.3%) increased by 1.4pps over the year.
  • The female (16 and over) unemployment rate (3.1%) increased by 0.1pps over the year.

Figure 1: Following a general decline in the unemployment rate between 2013 and the low point in 2019, the rate has increased over the last two years

Northern Ireland unemployment rate (16 and over), Jan to Dec 2011 to Jan to Dec 2021

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Figure 1 shows the unemployment rates for NI, males and females over the last 10 years, where the unemployment rate for females has been lower than males for the majority of this period. The gap between between males and females decreased in recent years, to a minimal difference in 2020 (0.1pps), before widening to a 1.2pps difference in 2021.


3. Employment

LFS employed: people aged 16 or over who did at least one hour of paid work in the reference week (whether as an employee or self-employed); those who had a paid job that they were temporarily away from; those on government-supported training and employee programmes and those doing unpaid family work.

Key findings

  • The 2021 employment rate (16 to 64) in NI was estimated at 70.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the year. The 2021 rate was 1.7pps below the peak employment rate for NI in 2019 (71.9%).
  • The number of persons in employment (16 to 64) was estimated at 817,000.
  • The estimated employment rate (16 to 64) was 72.4% for males and 68.1% for females.

Of those aged 16 to 64 who were employed, 51% (417,000) were male and 49% (400,000) were female. The changes by gender included:

  • The male (16 to 64) employment rate (72.4%) decreased by 2.2pps over the year
  • The female (16 to 64) employment rate (68.1%) increased by 2.8pps over the year

Figure 2: Employment rate for males has been consistently higher than females, but the gap decreased in 2021

Northern Ireland employment rate (16 to 64), Jan to Dec 2011 to Jan to Dec 2021

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Figure 2 presents the employment rates for NI, males and females over the last 10 years, which shows that the employment rate for males has been consistently higher than for females over this period, and both have generally followed the same trend. The difference in the male and female employment rate decreased to around 4pps in 2021 (previously 7-10pps difference), following an increase in the female employment rate and a decrease in the male employment rate over the year.


4. Economic inactivity

Economically inactive: People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

Key findings

  • The 2021 economic inactivity rate (16 to 64) in NI was estimated at 27.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points over the year.
  • The number of persons who were economically inactive (16 to 64) in 2021 was estimated at 314,000.
  • The estimated economic inactivity rate (16 to 64) was 24.2% for males and 29.7% for females.

Of those aged 16 to 64 who were economically inactive, 44% (140,000) were male and 56% (175,000) were female. The changes by gender included:

  • The male (16 to 64) inactivity rate (24.2%) increased by 1.1pps over the year
  • The female (16 to 64) inactivity rate (29.7%) decreased by 3.0pps over the year

Figure 3: Female economic inactivity has been consistently higher than males, however the gap has decreased in recent years

Northern Ireland economic inactivity rate (16 to 64), Jan to Dec 2011 to Jan to Dec 2021

Note: graph has a non-zero axis


Figure 3 shows that the economic inactivity rates for females has been consistently higher than males over the last decade. Similar to the employment rate, however, the difference between male and female economic inactivity rates in 2021 (less than 6pps) was the lowest recorded in the past decade, following a decline in the female rate over the year (by 3.0pps) and an increase for males (1.1pps).


5. Further information

Background

The LFS annual dataset used for this publication is derived from four consecutive quarters of the LFS.

Individuals in each wave are interviewed in five successive quarters, such that in any quarter one wave will be receiving their first interview, one wave their second, and so on, with one receiving their fifth and final interview. The annual dataset is created by selecting the relevant cases from each quarter and combining them to create a dataset of unique cases. Selecting all wave one and five interviews allows the maximum number of respondents over a one-year period to be included whilst avoiding double counting. The resulting sample size of the 2021 dataset is approximately 9,000 individuals. This sample size remains lower than the pre-pandemic sample size in 2019 (11,000 individuals) but was higher than the achieved sample size of 2020 (8,000 individuals). Further detail on the impact of Covid-19 on the Labour Force Survey can be found in the Labour Market Report supplementary document.

The LFS collects information from a sample of the population living in households. To provide estimates for the entire population the data must be grossed. This is achieved by creating grossing factors often referred to as weights, that can be applied to each sampled individual so that grossed results match published population data in terms of age distribution, sex and region of residence. Mid-year population estimates and projections are used to ensure that the LFS is grossed to the most up to date population data available.

LFS revisions

Typically, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) would reweight the LFS every two years to take account of updated population estimates and projections.

Since the onset of the pandemic, the ONS have been monitoring the impact and as a result, there have been three LFS reweightings to improve the estimates. In June 2022, the LFS quarterly estimates were reweighted from January-March 2020 to January-March 2022 using updated PAYE Real-Time Information data and with the introduction of the non-response bias adjustment to NI data. An overview of the Impact of Reweighting on the NI quarterly estimates of unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity is available on the NISRA website. This paper also contains the detail on two previous LFS reweightings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in October 2020 and July 2021.

Following the reweighting in June, this publication is the first release of reweighted annual data to account for the updates mentioned above, impacting data back to January to December 2020.

Reporting change and sampling variability

Reported change is calculated using unrounded data and is presented to 1 decimal place. When a change is less than 0.05pps, it is rounded to 0.0pps and the data is reported as unchanged.

The LFS is a sample survey and, as such, estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability. If we drew many samples each would give a different result.The ranges shown for the LFS data in the headline tables 1.1 to 1.3 represent 95% confidence intervals i.e. we would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value. See the Estimating and Reporting Uncertainty Paper for details.

If the annual change of an estimate is larger than the ‘confidence interval around the change’, the change is statistically significant. If none of the reported changes over the year were statistically significant, then the recorded changes did not exceed the variability expected from a sample survey of this size.

Publication thresholds

Thresholds are used to determine whether LFS data are suitably robust for publication. Estimates under a cell count of 3 are disclosive and therefore suppressed. Shaded estimates are based on a small sample size. This may result in less precise estimates, which should be used with caution, in particular should not be used to make statements on relative size when compared to similar values. Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.

LFS definitions

Employment: The definition of ILO employed applies to anyone (aged 16 or over) who has carried out at least one hour’s paid work in the week prior to interview, or has a job they are temporarily away from (e.g. on holiday). Also included are people who do unpaid work in a family business and people on Government-supported employment training schemes. In this publication employment estimates are for the working age (16 to 64) population.

Employment rate: The employment rate is the percentage of all working age (16 to 64) people who are employed.

Unemployment: The definition of unemployment used in the LFS is in accordance with that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). ILO unemployed includes those without a job who were able to start work in the two weeks following their LFS interview and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained.

Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate is the percentage of economically active people (16 and over) who are unemployed.

Economic inactivity: Economic inactivity applies to those individuals who are neither in employment nor unemployed on the ILO measure.

Economic inactivity rate: The economic inactivity rate is the percentage of people of working age who are economically inactive.

6. Contacts

If you require further information about the figures contained in this publication or the accompanying tables, or would like to provide feedback on the publication content please contact the Labour Force Survey section using the details below

Holly McAteer

Email: LFS@finance-ni.gov.uk
Web: Labour Force Survey

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7. National Statistics Status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

The LFS statistics were designated as National Statistics in August 2010 following a full assessment of Labour Market Statistics for Northern Ireland against the Code of Practice for statistics. A compliance check in March 2020 of the Labour Market Report, which contained LFS statistics, recommended the continued designation of the Labour Market Report as a National Statistic. These statistics were considered as part of a wider assessment of the UK employment and jobs statistics.

Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

  • New HTML report, produced using reproducible analytical pipelines (RAP) to enhance usability and accessibility (in line with regulations) and increase automation of production;
  • Providing more context to results by setting recent changes within context of longer term trends;
  • Improved quality of the LFS data by boosting the sample size and improving precision around headline estimates (Please note, sample sizes decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to difficulty of collecting survey information from households, but are returning to pre-pandemic levels);
  • Reviewed and updated quality protocols for release for LFS data;
  • Improved accessibility of labour market statistics by changing the release dates of statistics to avoid public holidays