Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI)

Status: Official Statistics in Development

Publication date:
24 September 2026

Next publication date:
14 January 2027

1. Key points

  • Economic activity in Northern Ireland increased by 1.0% in real terms over the quarter to reach a new series high in Quarter 2 2026. Compared to Quarter 2 2025, NI output has increased by 2.3%, and is now 12.7% above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019. When assessing annualised change, NI output increased by 2.0%.

  • The increase this quarter was mainly driven by increased activity in the Services sector (0.4 percentage points (pps)) and the Production sector (0.4 pps).

  • NI Private sector output as measured by the NICEI, increased by 1.0% over the quarter and increased by 2.2% over the year. NI Public sector output as measured by the NICEI, increased by 0.9% over the quarter and increased by 2.5% over the year.

  • Although the measures are not produced on a fully equivalent basis, UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.4% over the quarter and increased by 1.2% over the year to Quarter 2 2026. UK GDP is now 6.3% above its pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.

Bar chart - Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index, quarter on quarter change (%), last 8 quarters. +0.7% change over the quarter


Table 1: Quarterly, annual, pre-pandemic and annualised changes in the NICEI and Public and Private sectors, Q2 2026

Quarterly Annual Pre-pandemic1 Annualised2
NICEI 1.0% 2.3% 12.7% 2.0%
Private Sector 1.0% 2.2% 13.1% 2.0%
Public Sector 0.9% 2.5% 11.2% 2.0%

1 We have included the pre-pandemic change (i.e. Q2 2026 compared with Q4 2019) to illustrate the impact relative to the last quarter before the pandemic.

2 Annualised change: Q3 2024 to Q2 2025 compared with Q3 2025 to Q2 2026.

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2. Introduction

The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) is a quarterly measure of economic activity in NI based on available official statistics. Published quarterly indices (Index of Services, Index of Production and Quarterly Construction Enquiry), public sector employee jobs data from the Quarterly Employment Survey, plus agricultural output data from the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs are weighted using the ONS Regional Accounts Gross Value Added (GVA) data and combined to provide a proxy measure of total economic output. The NICEI statistics in this release are official statistics in development3, which are still undergoing evaluation and are subject to revision (please refer to the Official Statistics in development section for further information).

The NICEI is broadly equivalent to the output measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and is used to measure the performance of the NI economy. NISRA is currently working to develop a quarterly measure of GDP for NI which builds upon the NICEI.

In line with guidance detailed in the UK National Accounts Blue Book 2025 (published on 31 October 2025), figures in this publication have been weighted using the Northern Ireland 2023 Gross Value Added (GVA) figures published in April 2025. The base year is now 2023.

This report covers the period 1 April to 30 June 2026 (Quarter 2 2026).

3 Official statistics in development (previously known as experimental statistics) are official statistics that are undergoing a development; they may be new or existing statistics, and will be tested with users, in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

3. Contribution of sectors to overall NICEI4

Chart 2: Sector Contributions

Quarterly

Annual

Annualised

Chart 2: Sector Contributions written

The NICEI increased by 1.0% over the latest quarter. The increase was mainly driven by increased activity in the Services (0.4 pps) and the Production sectors (0.4 pps).

Over the year, the NICEI increased by 2.3% to Quarter 2 2026. This increase was mainly driven by increased activity in the Production sector (1.1 pps). The Public sector (0.6 pps), the Services sector (0.4 pps) and the Construction sector (0.3 pps) also made positive contributions to growth.

The 2.0% annualised increase in the NICEI (i.e. average of the four quarters to Quarter 2 2026 compared with the previous four quarters) was mainly driven by increased activity in the Production sector (0.8 pps). The Public sector (0.5 pps), the Services sector (0.5 pps) and the Construction sector (0.3 pps) also made positive contributions to growth.

4 After a seasonal adjustment review conducted in April 2026, the Agriculture series is now seasonally adjusted in line with IOS and IOP. The Construction (excluding the Public sector) series does not have seasonal variation and therefore does not require seasonal adjustment.

5 Figures may not sum due to rounding.

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4. Long-term NICEI

NI economic output is now 36.2% higher than the series low point recorded in Quarter 2 2020.

Chart 3: NICEI, Q1 2006 to Q2 2026

5. Economic commentary

Output reached a new series high in Quarter 2 2026, increasing by 1.0%. The largest contribution to change in the latest quarter came from increased activity in the Services sector (0.4 pps) and the Production sector (0.4 pps).

Over the year economic activity increased by 2.3%, with positive contributions from the Production sector, the Public sector, the Services sector and the Construction sector.

Looking at the longer-term trend, NI economic activity increased gradually between 2013 and 2019, following the prolonged downturn after the 2007 financial crisis. However, the onset of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic brought about a sharp downturn in output, with the NICEI reaching a series low in Quarter 2 2020. Since the pandemic, economic activity in NI has recovered substantially, reaching a series high in Quarter 2 2026. Output is now 36.2% above the series low point in Quarter 2 2020. Economic activity in Northern Ireland has increased in 22 of the last 40 quarters.

6. Sectoral insights

Further detailed information on the factors driving changes in each sector are available from the following publications.

On 17 September 2026, a new Index of Production (IOP) was published.

On 17 September 2026, a new Index of Services (IOS) was published.

On 24 September 2026, a new Quarterly Construction Enquiry (QCE) was published.

Users should also note that changes between publications may reflect both underlying economic developments and revisions arising from updated source data and methodological improvements. These revisions may consequently affect the trends shown in the NICEI.

7. Comparison with measures of GDP

NICEI is 12.7% above the pre-pandemic position seen in Quarter 4 2019 and is outperforming both the Scottish and UK economies in this regard. Ireland’s GDP is now 40.9% above the pre-pandemic level after rising sharply post pandemic. Ireland’s Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) which removes the distorting effects of globalisation is now 26.0% above the pre-pandemic level.

Chart 4: NICEI⁶, comparison with selected GDP measures Q1 2006 to Q2 2026⁷

6 The NICEI methodology has been shown to provide a close short-term approximation to the UK GDP series, readers are advised that due to differences in the underlying methodologies the measures presented here should not be considered as precisely like-for-like.

7 Ireland’s GDP figure has been volatile over recent years, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) highlights the impact Globalisation had on Ireland’s GDP figures.

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Chart 4 above indicates that, over the time period, NI, Scotland and UK output all fell to their lowest level in Quarter 2 2020 while in contrast Ireland’s GDP lowest level recorded was in Quarter 4 2009 and Ireland’s MDD lowest level was recorded in Quarter 3 2011.

The NICEI reached a new series high in Quarter 2 2026. The NI output series is now 6.3% higher than the peak seen in Quarter 3 2007, prior to the economic downturn.

In contrast, UK GDP is now estimated to be 21.5% higher than its pre-economic downturn high point seen in Quarter 1 2008. This suggests that the UK has had a shorter downturn since the 2008 recession and a faster recovery.

Over the last 10 years, the UK has reported increases in GDP in 33 of the last 40 quarters while the NICEI has reported increases in economic activity in 22 of the last 40 quarters.

Chart 4 shows Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) for Ireland. The impact of globalisation activities on economic statistics, as seen in Ireland’s GDP 2015 results, presented significant measurement and communication challenges for the Central Statistics Office (CSO), particularly around indicators of domestic performance. MDD is a domestically focused indicator developed by CSO to remove the distorting effects of globalisation.

Table 2 provides a summary of changes over the quarter, year, pre-pandemic and rolling four quarters for the NICEI and other selected GDP measures.

Table 2: Quarterly, annual, pre-pandemic and annualised change in the NICEI and selected GDP measures, Quarter 2 2026.

Quarterly Annual Pre-pandemic⁸ Annualised⁹
NICEI 1.0% 2.3% 12.7% 2.0%
UK 0.4% 1.2% 6.3% 1.0%
Scotland 0.7% 1.1% 3.6% 0.9%
Ireland 10.2% -0.4% 40.9% -2.4%
Ireland MDD -0.8% 1.4% 26.0% 4.0%

8 We have included the pre-pandemic change (i.e. Q2 2026 compared with Q4 2019) to illustrate the impact relative to the last quarter before the pandemic.

9 Annualised change: Q3 2024 to Q2 2025 compared with Q3 2025 to Q2 2026.

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Comparing economic activity in both NI and UK, NI economic activity increased over the quarter by 1.0%, while activity in the UK grew by 0.4% over the same period. NI had stronger growth over the year (2.3% vs 1.2%) and over the rolling annual average period (2.0% vs 1.0%). Comparing against the pre-pandemic quarter (Quarter 4 2019) economic activity in NI has shown stronger growth than the UK (12.7% vs 6.3%).

Comparing economic activity in both NI and Scotland, NI economic activity was stronger over the quarter (1.0% vs 0.7%), over the year (2.3% vs 1.1%) and over the rolling annual average period (2.0% vs 0.9%). Comparing against the pre-pandemic quarter (Quarter 4 2019) economic activity in NI has also shown stronger growth than Scotland (12.7% vs 3.6%).

Ireland’s GDP increased by 10.2% over the latest quarter and has recorded the strongest growth since pre-pandemic (40.9%) using the GDP measure. Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) which removes the distorting effects of globalisation, experienced shrink of 0.8% over the quarter and a growth of 26.0% since the pre-pandemic quarter.

8. Background notes

Data published in this bulletin is available to download from our website and the new NISRA Data Portal. Detailed background information and methodology have been published online.

We welcome feedback on this release, in particularly on its content, format and structure. If you wish to receive regular NICEI updates via email or join the NICEI Expert User Group please contact economicstats@nisra.gov.uk.

Table 3: Changes to recent releases
Quarter Change Detail
Quarter 3 2025 Updated 2023 GVA Reference Year and 2023 rebase The UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2025 was published on 31 October 2025. In line with Blue Book 2025, we have moved the GVA reference year on to 2023 as part of our production process. At the same time the index figures have been re-referenced to 2023 = 100.
Quarter 1 2026 Seasonal Adjustment Review Following the seasonal adjustment review conducted in April 2026 for Agriculture data.
Quarter 2 2026 Agriculture in 2023 prices Agriculture data received from DAERA is now in 2023 prices compared to 2005 prices previously. This provides weights that are more representative of current economic activity in agriculture.

9. List of tables

Data accompanying this bulletin are available from the NISRA website in both Open Document and Excel formats. The spreadsheet includes the following tables.

Table 1: NICEI and component indices by quarter, Q1 2006 to Q2 2026 (2023 = 100) Table 2: NICEI and component indices by year, 2006 to 2026 (2023 = 100) Table 3: Data for Chart 1: Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI), quarter on quarter change (%), Q1 2006 to Q2 2026 Table 4: Breakdown of NI businesses and employees by country of ownership, 2026 Table 5: Proportion of NI Regional GVA by sector, 2023 Table 6: Data for Chart 2: NICEI, contribution to quarterly, annual and annualised growth to Q2 2026 Table 7: Data for Chart 3: Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI), Q1 2006 to Q2 2026 Table 8: Data for Chart 4: NICEI, comparison with selected GDP measures Q1 2006 to Q2 2026 Table 9: Data for Table 1: Quarterly, annual, pre-pandemic and annualised change in the NICEI and Private and Public sectors to Q2 2026 Table 10: Data for Table 2: Quarterly, annual, pre-pandemic and annualised change in the NICEI and selected GDP measures to Q2 2026 Table 11: Comparison of the NICEI series quarter on quarter change at Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 Table 12: NICEI sector contributions to quarterly change, Q3 2016 to Q2 2026 (2023 = 100)

10. Official statistics in development

Official statistics in development (previously called experimental statistics) are official statistics that are undergoing a development and may be new or existing official statistics. They are published to involve users and stakeholders in their development and as a means to ensure they will meet user needs going forward. As these statistics are still in development, they are subject to retrospective revision in any future releases. The methodology and quality assurance are still in development and are subject to change.

In October 2018, the Methodology Advisory Service (MAS) in the ONS completed a review into the NICEI, which made a number of recommendations to enhance the robustness of the measure of output for the NI economy. These include improvements to the measure of Public Sector Output (i.e. Health, Education and Collective Public Services) and some Private Sector additions (i.e. Imputed Rents and Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM)).

NISRA is currently working on implementing the MAS recommendations, with a view to producing a quarterly measure of GDP for NI, which builds upon the NICEI. It is our goal that the new quarterly measure of GDP will undergo assessment by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) to ensure compliance with the standards of the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.

Feedback on these statistics is particularly welcome from users and will be used to further develop the statistics. Please email economicstats@nisra.gov.uk.

11. Contact details

Published by: Economic and Labour Market Statistics Branch

Lead Statistician: Suzanne Bradley

Telephone: 028 90 529505

Email: economicstats@nisra.gov.uk

Accessibility contact

Please contact Dissemination Branch for assistance with accessibility requirements or alternative formats. Contact details are:

Email:

Telephone: +44 (0)300 200 7836

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