Northern Ireland Quarterly Index of Services
Introduction
The quarterly Index of Services (IOS) provides a timely indicator of change in the volume of output within the private sector services industries in Northern Ireland (NI). Included in this publication is the Retail Sales Index (RSI) which is an official statistic in development and refers to SIC 47 (Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles). It is a subset of IOS.
Output estimates are calculated from the IOS aspect of the Quarterly
Business Survey (QBS). The IOS has a sample size of approximately 3,700
businesses, covering all private sector services businesses with 100 or
more employees and a representative sample of smaller businesses. The
latest quarterly estimates are compared to revised Quarter 1 2026 and
Quarter 2 2025 estimates.
Key Points
-
The NI IOS increased by 0.8% over the quarter (April - June) to reach a series high, increased by 0.7% over the year and increased by 0.9% on a rolling four quarter basis.
-
The UK IOS increased by 0.5% over the quarter (April - June) to reach a UK series high, increased by 1.6% over the year and increased by 1.3% on a rolling four quarter basis.
-
Over the quarter, the Business services and finance sector increased by 1.3%, the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector increased by 1.2%, and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector increased by 1.1%. This was partly offset by a 0.8% decrease in the Other services sector.
- Over the year the Business services and finance sector increased by 4.3%, and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector increased by 2.4%. Conversely, the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector decreased by 0.4%, and the Other services sector decreased by 0.3%.
- The NI RSI decreased by 1.0% over the quarter, decreased by 2.0% over the year, and increased by 1.3% on a rolling four quarter basis.
Summary of Index of Services
Change in Index of Services
The seasonally adjusted estimate for the NI IOS for Quarter 2 2026
showed:
-
an increase of 0.8% over the quarter from the Quarter 1 2026 revised estimate;
-
an increase of 0.7% over the year from the Quarter 2 2025 revised estimate; and
- an increase of 0.9% when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters.
Commentary
NI services sector output increased by 0.8% over the quarter, while UK services sector output increased 0.5% over the same period. Over the year there was an increase in NI output of 0.7% and an increase in UK output of 1.6%.
Both the NI and UK indices have followed an upward trend since Quarter 2 2013, with the exception of the COVID-19 pandemic period which began in Quarter 1 2020. Both series showed a similar level of decline and have followed a similar trend in their subsequent recovery, with the NI index now slightly outperforming the UK index.
In Quarter 2 2026 NI output reached a new series high, and is 43.0% above the series low in Q2 2020 (during the pandemic).
The NI Index of Services is now 11.7% above its pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019, and the UK IOS is 8.7% above its pre-pandemic level.
Figure 1.2 NI IOS Quarterly, Annual and Rolling Four Quarter Changes at sector level, Q2 2026
Note: Each broad sector index and the overall IOS index are seasonally adjusted independently of each other. It is not appropriate to directly compare the changes in the broad sectors to the changes in the overall IOS index.
Services Output by Sector
2.1 Business services and finance sector
(SIC 07 Section KLMN) (weight = 41.9% of IOS):
includes financial
service activities, real estate activities, specialised professional,
scientific and technical activities and a variety of activities that
support general business operations.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 1.3% over the quarter, 4.3% over the year and 2.1% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 0.4% over the quarter, 0.8% over the year and 0.6% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output in Quarter 2 2026 has reached a new ten year high.
-
NI output is now 30.4% above its pre-pandemic level in Quarter 4 2019, and 53.6% above the series low seen in Quarter 2 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Figure 2.1 Business services and finance sector, NI & UK, Q2 2016 to Q2 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023 = 100
Between Quarter 2 2016 and Quarter 2 2023, the UK index in the
Business services and finance sector generally outperformed the NI
index. NI output saw a greater decline in 2020 (during the COVID-19
pandemic) than UK output and reached a series low in Quarter 2 2020.
Subsequent recovery has seen the NI index remain volatile but mostly
outperform the UK series, reaching a ten year high this quarter.
2.2 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector
(SIC 07 Section GI) (weight = 32.0% of IOS):
includes the
wholesale and retail trade and the supply of services incidental to the
sale of merchandise as well as the repair of motor vehicles and
motorcycles. This sector also includes the provision of short-stay
accommodation for visitors and the provision of complete meals and
drinks fit for immediate consumption.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show an increase of 1.2% over the quarter, a decrease of 0.4% over the year and an increase of 0.4% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show no change over the quarter, an increase of 1.6% over the year, and an increase of 0.8% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output in Quarter 2 2026 is 0.6% lower than the series high seen in Quarter 3 2025.
-
NI output is now 7.8% above its pre-pandemic level in Quarter 4 2019 and 36.3% above the series low seen in Quarter 2 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Figure 2.2 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector, NI & UK, Q2 2016 to Q2 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023 = 100
The NI and UK indices followed a similar trend in this sector
until Quarter 1 2020 when the UK series saw a greater decrease than the
NI series. Subsequent recovery has seen the series diverge slightly
after Quarter 4 2023, with the NI index outperforming the UK index.
2.3 Other services sector
(SIC 07 Section PQRS) (weight 15.2% of IOS):
includes other
activities not covered elsewhere - education, health & social work,
arts, entertainment and recreation and other services.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show a decrease of 0.8% over the quarter, a decrease of 0.3% over the year, and no change on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output in Quarter 2 2026 is 0.8% below the ten year high seen in Quarter 1 2026.
-
NI output is now 9.2% above its pre-pandemic level in Quarter 4 2019 and 82.8% above the series low seen in Quarter 2 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Figure 2.3 Other services sector, NI, Q2 2016 to Q2 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023 = 100
The UK
does not publish results on the same basis as NI so there are no UK
results to compare against.
The NI index followed a gentle downward trend in this sector
between Quarter 2 2016 and Quarter 4 2019. The index fell to a series
low in Quarter 2 2020 (during the COVID-19 pandemic) and has since
recovered. In recent years, the series has shown more stability,
reaching a ten year high in Quarter 1 2026.
2.4 Transport, storage, information and communications sector
(SIC 07 Section HJ) (weight 11.0% of IOS):
includes the provision
of passenger or freight transport and associated activities, postal and
courier activities, the production and distribution of information and
cultural products, as well as data or communications, information
technology activities and the processing of data and other information
service activities.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 1.1% over the quarter, 2.4% over the year and 2.2% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 2.1% over the quarter, 5.3% over the year and 4.6% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output in Quarter 2 2026 is 1.1% below the series high seen in Quarter 1 2022.
-
NI output is now 13.0% above its pre-pandemic level in Quarter 4 2019 and 43.3% above the ten year low seen in Quarter 2 2020 (during the COVID-19 pandemic).
Figure 2.4 Transport, storage, information and communications, NI & UK, Q2 2016 to Q2 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023 = 100
The NI index followed an upward trend until Quarter 2 2018,
while the UK index continued to increase until Quarter 4 2019. Both
indices experienced a sharp decline in Quarter 2 2020 (during the
COVID-19 pandemic). Since then both indices have recovered with the NI
index reaching a series high in Quarter 1 2022, and the UK index
continuing to increase to reach a new series high in Quarter 2 2026.
Retail Sales Index
The quarterly RSI provides a timely indicator of change in the
volume of output within the private retail service industries in
Northern Ireland (NI). The retail sales sector refers to SIC 47 (Retail
trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles) and is a subset of the
Index of Services (IOS) aspect of the Quarterly Business Survey (QBS).
The Northern Ireland RSI is an “official statistic in development”,
previously called an “Experimental Statistic”, as it continues to be
reviewed and undergo development.
Key Points
-
The NI RSI saw a decrease of 1.0% over the quarter (April - June), a decrease of 2.0% over the year and an increase of 1.3% on a rolling four quarter basis.
-
The GB RSI saw an increase 0.3% over the quarter, an increase of 2.6% over the year and an increase of 2.0% on a rolling four quarter basis.
-
The NI RSI is now 2.1% above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while the GB RSI is 0.5% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
- The NI RSI output reached a series high in Quarter 3 2020 (which included the period between the first and second COVID-19 lockdown in NI).
- The NI RSI is now 13.0% higher than the series low in Quarter 1 2021 (a quarter which overlapped with the third COVID-19 lockdown in NI).
Summary of the Retail Sales Index
-
The seasonally adjusted estimate for the NI RSI for Quarter 2 2026 shows a decrease of 1.0% over the quarter, a decrease of 2.0% over the year and an increase of 1.3% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The seasonally adjusted estimate for the GB RSI for Quarter 2 2026 shows an increase of 0.3% over the quarter, an increase of 2.6% over the year and an increase of 2.0% on a rolling four quarters basis.
Figure 3.1 RSI, NI & GB, Q1 2014 to Q2 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023=100
The NI RSI
series begins in 2014
Commentary
The NI and GB Retail Sales Indices followed the same general
upward trend (from Quarter 1 2014) until Quarter 2 2019, before
demonstrating a similar pattern of highs and lows during the COVID-19
pandemic and subsequent two years. In Quarter 1 2024, the two series
began to diverge with the NI RSI increasing more rapidly than the GB
RSI. The NI RSI is now 2.1% above its pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter
4 2019, while the GB RSI is 0.5% below its pre-pandemic level.
Figure 3.2 NI and GB RSI Quarterly, Annual and Rolling Four Quarter Changes
Background Notes
Further Information
Data published within this bulletin is available to download from our
website
and the NISRA Data
Portal.
Detailed
background
documents,
methodology
information and
information
on quality and revisions have been published online for users to
refer to for more detailed information on the IOS.
Each quarter estimates for the previous four quarters are revised to
include late returns and more accurate data. Additional quality
assurance was carried out in Quarter 2 2026. This has resulted in
further late returns being included in previous quarters to reduce
sampling error and the revisable period being extended by two quarters
(to Quarter 4 2024).
Changes to recent releases
| Quarter | Change | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter 3 2025 | Updated 2023 GVA Reference Year and 2023 rebase | The UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2025 was published on 31 October 2025. In line with Blue Book 2025, we have moved the GVA reference year on to 2023 as part of our production process. The sector weights are now based on this Northern Ireland 2023 GVA. At the same time the index figures have been re-referenced to 2023 = 100 which results in a change to the level of services output but maintains growth rates. |
| Quarter 1 2026 | Seasonal Adjustment Review | Following the seasonal adjustment review conducted in April 2026, changes have been made to some regressors and models used to seasonally adjust time series using X13 ARIMA SEATS. |
Index of tables
More detailed analysis are available in the IOS tables.
1.1 IOS, NI & UK
2.1 Business services and finance – SIC07
Sections K-N, NI and UK
2.2 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of
motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service – SIC07
Sections G & I, NI and UK
2.3 Other services – SIC07 Sections
P-S, NI only
2.4 Transport, storage, information & communication
– SIC07 Sections H & J, NI and UK
3.1 IOS percentage change, NI
and UK
3.2 IOS percentage change by Broad Industry Group, NI
3.3
Business services and finance percentage change, NI and UK
3.4
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles;
accommodation and food service percentage change, NI and UK
3.5
Other services percentage change, NI only
3.6 Transport, storage,
information & communication percentage change, NI and UK
3.7 IOS
– Quarterly, Annual and Rolling Annual average changes by sector, NI
3.8 NI IOS by Broad Sectors – Annual Average
4.1 Retail Sales Index,
NI and GB
4.2 NI Retail Sales index and Index of Services
4.3
Retail Sales Index percentage change, NI and GB
4.4 NI Retail Sales
Index - Quarterly, annual and rolling annual average change
4.5 NI
Retail Sales Index - Annual Average
Accredited Official Statistics and Official Statistics in Development
Accredited
official statistics are official statistics that have been
independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) and
confirmed to comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and
value in the
Code
of Practice for Statistics. Producers of accredited official
statistics are legally required to ensure they maintain compliance with
the Code. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics
in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.
The Index of Services (IOS) statistics were independently reviewed by
OSR in January 2011 as part of the
Assessment
of the Northern Ireland Index of Production (IOP) and Index of Services
(IOS) with
accreditation
confirmed in August 2011. They comply with the standards of
trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice and should be
labelled National Statistics (or ‘accredited official statistics’).
The quarterly Retail Sales Index (RSI) is an “official statistic in
development” and therefore is not an accredited official statistic.
Official
statistics in development (previously called Experimental
Statistics) are official statistics that are undergoing a development,
and may be new or existing official statistics. They are published to
involve users and stakeholders in their development and as a means to
ensure they will meet user needs going forward. The methodology and
quality assurance are still in development and are subject to change.
Feedback on these statistics is particularly welcome from users and
will be used to further develop the statistics. Our contact details are
included below.
Our statistical practice is regulated by OSR. It set the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards using the contact details below. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.
Contact Details
Published by: Economic and Labour Market Statistics Branch
Lead Statistician: Jude Curran
Email: economicstats@nisra.gov.uk
Accessibility contact
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