Northern Ireland Quarterly Index of Production
Introduction
The quarterly Index of Production (IOP) provides a timely indicator
of change in the volume of output of the production industries in
Northern Ireland (NI). Output estimates are calculated from the IOP
aspect of the Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). The IOP has a sample size
of approximately 1,200 covering all production businesses with 40 or
more employees and a representative sample of smaller businesses. The
latest quarterly estimates are compared to revised Quarter 4 2025 and
Quarter 1 2025 estimates.
Key Points
-
The NI IOP increased by 2.1% over the quarter (January - March) and increased by 7.6% over the year.
-
The UK IOP increased by 0.2% over the quarter and increased by 0.1% over the year.
-
When the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, the NI production sector increased by 4.3% while the UK production sector decreased by 0.3%.
-
The NI IOP is 10.3% above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019, while the UK IOP remains 7.0% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
-
Over the quarter, the increase in NI production output was driven by a rise in three main sectors - Manufacturing (1.6%), Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (6.1%) and Mining and quarrying (10.4%). Offset by a fall in Water supply, sewerage and waste management (inc. recycling) (1.5%).
- Over the year the increase in NI production output was driven by a rise in three main sectors – Manufacturing (9.1%), Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (7.4%) and Mining and quarrying (1.3%). This was offset by a fall in Water supply, sewerage and waste management (inc. recycling) (6.0%).
Summary of Index of Production
Change in IOP
The seasonally adjusted estimate for the NI IOP for Quarter 1 2026 showed:
-
an increase of 2.1% over the quarter from the Quarter 4 2025 revised estimate;
-
an increase of 7.6% over the year from the Quarter 1 2025 revised estimate; and
- an increase of 4.3% when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters.
Commentary
Output in the NI Production sector increased by 2.1% in real
terms over the first quarter of 2026. The UK Production sector increased
by 0.2% over the same period. Over the year there was an increase in NI
output of 7.6% and an increase in UK output of 0.1%.
NI output
has seen increases in six of the last eight quarters to Quarter 1 2026.
The NI and UK series have followed broadly similar trends,
although the NI index saw a steeper decline over the COVID-19 pandemic
period. The NI IOP fell to its series low in Quarter 2 2020 but has
since recovered to be 10.3% above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter
4 2019. In contrast, the UK index remains 7.0% below its pre-pandemic
level.
In Quarter 1 2026 NI output is 40.1% above the series low seen in Q2 2020 but remains 0.8% below the series high seen in Q4 2007.
Figure 1.2 NI IOP Quarterly, Annual and Rolling Four Quarter Changes at sector level, Q1 2026
Note: Each broad sector index and the overall IOP index are seasonally adjusted independently of each other. It is not appropriate to directly compare the changes in the broad sectors to the changes in the overall IOP index.
The Production sector is dominated by Manufacturing, which accounts
for approximately 78.8% of total production Gross Value Added (GVA) at
2023 prices. It is comprised of six subsectors, as shown in Figure 1.3.
Figure 1.3 IOP sector split (based on 2023 GVA)
Note: All GVA weights for sectors and subsectors are shown as
a percentage of total IOP.
Further information on these subsectors is available in the IOP Tables.
Production Output by Sector
2.1 Manufacturing
Manufacturing sector (SIC07 Section C) (weight = 78.8% of IOP)
Manufacturing involves the transformation of materials into new
products (outputs).
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 1.6% over the quarter, 9.1% over the year and 4.9% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 0.8% over the quarter, 0.5% over the year and a decrease of 0.5% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output has reached a new ten year high in Quarter 1 2026.
-
NI output is 43.2% above the series low recorded in Q2 2020.
Figure 2.1 Manufacturing sector, NI & UK, Q1 2016 to Q1 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023 = 100
The UK and NI indices have had a broadly similar trend in the
Manufacturing sector since Quarter 3 2017 before starting to diverge in
Quarter 2 2025. Since then, the NI index has outperformed the UK index,
reaching a new ten year high in Quarter 1 2026.
2.2 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (SIC07 Section D)
(weight = 11.0% of IOP)
This sector includes the activity of
providing electric power, natural gas, steam, hot water and the like
through a permanent infrastructure (network) of lines, mains and pipes.
Also included is its distribution in industrial parks or residential
buildings. Therefore, the operation of electric and gas utilities are
included.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 6.1% over the quarter, 7.4% over the year and 1.7% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The seasonally adjusted figures for the UK show an increase of 0.5% over the quarter and decreases of 0.3% over the year and 0.4% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output is 18.4% below the series high recorded in Q4 2021.
-
NI output is 7.4% above the series low recorded in Q1 2025.
Figure 2.2 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, NI & UK, Q1 2016 to Q1 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023 = 100
The NI index remained relatively stable between Quarter 1 2016
and Quarter 2 2019 while, during the same period, the UK index showed
greater variation. NI output has fallen since the ten year high in
Quarter 4 2021, but has remained relatively stable since Quarter 1
2023.
2.3 Water supply, sewage and waste management (inc. recycling)
Water supply, sewerage, and waste management (inc. recycling) (SIC07
Section E) (weight = 8.4% of IOP)
This sector covers activities
related to the management (including collection, treatment and disposal)
of various forms of waste, such as solid or non-solid industrial or
household waste, as well as contaminated sites. Activities of water
supply are also grouped in this sector since they are often carried out
in connection with, or by units also engaged in, the treatment of
sewage.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show decreases of 1.5% over the quarter, 6.0% over the year and an increase of 0.2% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show a decrease of 0.5% over the quarter and increases of 1.8% over the year and 3.9% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The NI estimate is 12.1% below the series high seen in Q1 2022.
-
NI output is 44.9% above the ten year low recorded in Q2 2020.
Figure 2.3 Water supply, sewage and waste management (inc. recycling), NI & UK, Q1 2016 to Q1 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023 = 100
The UK index has generally been outperforming the NI index in
this sector during the last ten years. NI output saw a substantially
larger decrease in 2020 (during the COVID-19 pandemic) than UK output
but subsequently recovered to reach a series high in Quarter 1 2022,
outperforming the UK index. Since then, NI output in this sector has
decreased dropping below the UK index in Quarter 2 2024.
2.4 Mining and Quarrying
Mining and quarrying (SIC07 Section B) (weight = 1.8% of IOP)
This sector covers the extraction of minerals occurring naturally
as solids (coal and ores), liquids (petroleum) or gases (natural gas).
Extraction can be achieved by different methods such as underground or
surface mining, well operation, seabed mining, etc.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 10.4% over the quarter, 1.3% over the year and 10.7% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show decreases of 4.5% over the quarter, 5.0% over the year and 2.4% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output is 23.5% below the series high recorded in Q1 2021.
-
NI output is 54.4% above the ten year low seen in Q2 2020.
Figure 2.4 Mining and quarrying, NI & UK, Q1 2016 to Q1 2026
Figures are indexed to 2023 = 100
Both the NI and the UK indices have shown volatility in the
Mining and quarrying sector with an overall downward trend since Quarter
3 2020 for the UK series and Quarter 2 2021 for the NI series.
Background Notes
Further Information
Data published within this bulletin is available to download from our
website
and the NISRA Data
Portal.
Detailed
background
information documents and
methodology
information have also been published online for users to refer to for
more detailed information on the IOP.
Changes to recent releases
| Quarter | Change | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter 3 2025 | Updated 2023 GVA Reference Year and 2023 rebase | The UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2025 was published on 31 October 2025. In line with Blue Book 2025, we have moved the GVA reference year on to 2023 as part of our production process. The sector weights are now based on this Northern Ireland 2023 GVA. At the same time the index figures have been re-referenced to 2023 = 100 which results in a change to the level of services output but maintains growth rates. |
| Quarter 1 2026 | Seasonal Adjustment Review | Following the seasonal adjustment review conducted in April 2026, changes have been made to some regressors and models used to seasonally adjust the time series using X13 ARIMA SEATS. |
Index of tables
More detailed analysis and subsector indices are available below in IOP tables.
1.1 IOP, NI & UK
2.1 Manufacturing sector output, NI &
UK
2.2 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, NI &
UK
2.3 Water supply, sewerage and waste management (inc. recycling),
NI & UK
2.4 Mining and quarrying output, NI & UK
3 Index
of Production percentage change by Broad Industry Group, NI
4.1
Engineering and allied industries, NI & UK
4.2 Total Other
Manufacturing, NI & UK
4.3 Food products, beverages and tobacco,
NI & UK
4.4 Basic and fabricated metal products, NI & UK
4.5 Manufacturing of chemical and pharmaceutical products, NI &
UK
4.6 Textiles, leather and related products, NI & UK
5 NI
Market Sector Goods
6.1 IOP by Market Sector Goods (annual data)
6.2 IOP by Market Sector Goods percentage change, NI
6.3 IOP –
Quarterly, annual and rolling annual average changes by sector, NI
6.4 NI Manufacturing Index – Quarterly
6.5 NI Manufacturing Index -
Annual Average
6.6 NI IOP by Manufacturing Broad Sub-sectors –
Quarterly
6.7 NI IOP by Manufacturing Broad Sub-sectors - Annual
Average
Accredited Official Statistics
Accredited
official statistics are official statistics that have been
independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) and
confirmed to comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and
value in the
Code
of Practice for Statistics. Producers of accredited official
statistics are legally required to ensure they maintain compliance with
the Code. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics
in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.
These
accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by OSR in
January 2011 as part of the
Assessment
of the Northern Ireland Index of Production (IOP) and Index of Services
(IOS) with
accreditation
confirmed in August 2011. They comply with the standards of
trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice and should be
labelled National Statistics (or ‘accredited official statistics’).
Our statistical practice is regulated by OSR. It set the standards
of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for
Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.
You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we
meet these standards using the contact details below. Alternatively, you
can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the
OSR
website.
Contact Details
Published by: Economic and Labour Market Statistics Branch
Lead Statistician: Stephanie Bruce
Email: economicstats@nisra.gov.uk
Accessibility contact
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