Key Points

  • In 2024 Northern Ireland’s net greenhouse gas emissions were estimated to be 18.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). This net figure is a result of an estimated 22.2 MtCO2e total emissions, offset by 3.8 MtCO2e of emissions removed through sequestration.

  • The net figure of 18.4 MtCO2e in 2024 remains similar to 2023 with a 0.04% difference. The longer-term trend showed a decrease of 29.4% compared with the base year. The base year is 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for the fluorinated gases.

  • In 2024, Agriculture was the largest emitter, responsible for 31.4% of emissions. Domestic transport followed as the second largest contributor, responsible for 21.3% of overall emissions. The Buildings and product uses sector, along with the Land use, land use changes, and forestry (LULUCF) sector, contributed 15.5% and 11.7% respectively. Additionally, the Electricity Supply sector accounted for 10.8% of emissions.

  • Between 2023 and 2024 three sectors showed a decrease in emissions. In terms of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, these decreases were in Electricity Supply (0.2 MtCO2e), Industry (0.05 MtCO2e) and Waste (0.02 MtCO2e) sectors.

  • In 2024, Northern Ireland contributed 4.9% of all UK greenhouse gas emissions, which stood at 373 MtCO2e. In the UK there has been a 52.9% reduction in emissions between the base year and 2024. During the same period, the reduction in emissions in Northern Ireland was 29.4%, compared to 55.0% in England, 52.2% in Scotland and 44.5% in Wales.

Introduction

The purpose of this statistical bulletin is to summarise the latest published estimates of greenhouse gas emissions for Northern Ireland. The tables these estimates are sourced from are available from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory website Devolved Administrations - Greenhouse Gas Reports.

This report focuses on “by source” emissions, which are allocated to the source sector in which they occur. ‘End user’ emissions, where energy supply emissions are allocated to energy users, are also available.

Territorial Emissions Statistics Sectors

Previous Northern Ireland greenhouse gas inventory statistical bulletins categorised emissions estimates into National Communication (NC) sectors. Following consultation with key stakeholders, it was proposed1 that the emissions estimates be categorised into Territorial Emissions Statistics (TES) sectors in order to better meet users’ needs. A summary of how emissions sources from NC sectors have been reallocated to TES sectors is provided in the diagram below. See Replacement of National Communication sectors with Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors for further information.

Northern Ireland Summary

Figure 1: Greenhouse gas emissions

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024

MtCO2e



In 2024, Northern Ireland’s net greenhouse gas emissions2 were estimated to be 18.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). This has remained largely the same since 2023, with only a minor decrease of 0.01 MtCO2e (0.04%).

The longer-term trend showed a decrease of 29.4% compared to the base year3 estimate of 26.0 MtCO2e. The base year is 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for the fluorinated gases4.

Figure 2: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas type

Northern Ireland, 20245



Carbon dioxide accounted for 61.5% of all greenhouse gas emissions in Northern Ireland (11.3 MtCO2e) in 2024. The proportions of other greenhouse gases were methane 29.5%, nitrous oxide 8.0%, and hydrofluorocarbons 0.9%.

Northern Ireland contributed 4.9% of total UK greenhouse gas emissions, whilst accounting for 2.8% of the UK’s population in 20246. Based on the latest available estimates (2023), Northern Ireland accounted for around 2.3% of UK’s economic output (Gross Value Added)7. Equivalent 2024 UK estimates were not yet available at time of publication.

In terms of emissions per capita, Northern Ireland produced the equivalent of 9.5 tonnes of CO2 per person compared with a UK figure of 5.4 tonnes of CO2 per person.

Methane emissions attributable to Northern Ireland made up 9.8% of all UK methane emissions. Similarly, nitrous oxide emissions attributable to Northern Ireland made up 7.1% of all UK nitrous oxide emissions.

Due to the relative importance of agriculture in the Northern Ireland economy (2.0% of GVA, compared to 0.6% for UK8), agricultural sources accounted for a higher proportion of emissions in Northern Ireland (31.4%) compared to other parts of the UK. The proportion for England, Wales and Scotland stands at 10.1%, 17.4% and 20.5% respectively.

Emissions by Sector

Figure 3: Greenhouse gas emissions by sector (%)

Northern Ireland, 2024

Table 1a: Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, change in MtCO2e

Northern Ireland; Base year, 2023, 2024

Sector BaseYear 2023 2024 Change Base Year to 2024 Change 2023 to 2024
Agriculture 5.2 5.7 5.8 0.5 0.1
Buildings and product uses 4.5 2.7 2.8 -1.6 0.1
Domestic transport 3.6 3.9 3.9 0.3 0.0
Electricity supply 5.3 2.2 2.0 -3.3 -0.2
Fuel supply 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Industry 3.3 1.1 1.0 -2.3 0.0
LULUCF 2.6 2.1 2.1 -0.5 0.0
Waste 1.5 0.7 0.7 -0.8 0.0
Total 26.0 18.4 18.4 -7.7 0.0

Table 1b: Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, % change

Northern Ireland; Base year, 2023, 2024

** Due to the small tonnages estimated for the Fuel supply sector, percentage change is not an appropriate measure to communicate the change between years.
Sector BaseYear 2023 2024 % change Base Year to 2024 % change 2023 to 2024
Agriculture 5.2 5.7 5.8 10.0 0.9
Buildings and product uses 4.5 2.7 2.8 -36.7 5.0
Domestic transport 3.6 3.9 3.9 9.2 0.8
Electricity supply 5.3 2.2 2.0 -62.6 -8.3
Fuel supply 0.0 0.0 0.0 ** 24.9
Industry 3.3 1.1 1.0 -69.4 -4.4
LULUCF 2.6 2.1 2.1 -18.2 0.7
Waste 1.5 0.7 0.7 -52.9 -2.1
Total 26.0 18.4 18.4 -29.4 0.0



The largest sectors in terms of emissions in 2024 were Agriculture (31.4%), Domestic transport (21.3%), Buildings and product uses (15.5%) and Land use change (11.7%). The remaining emissions were produced by Electricity supply (10.8%), Industry (5.5%) and Waste (3.8%). Fuel supply accounts for a negligible share of emissions (less than 0.1%).

Between 2023 and 2024 Electricity Supply, Industry and Waste showed a decrease in emissions. Most sectors showed a decreasing trend since the base year, but Agriculture, Domestic Transport and Fuel Supply all show an increasing trend since the base year. The trends for each sector and the factors influencing them are as follows:

Agriculture

  • In 2024, agricultural emissions increased by 0.1 MtCO2e (0.9%) compared to 2023. This increase is largely driven by an increase in emissions from manufactured fertilisers (16.9%) and agricultural NRMM (non-road mobile machinery) (16.1%). Total factor productivity increased by 1.2% between 2023 and 20249.

  • Emissions have remained largely consistent across the entire timeseries and have steadily increased by 10.0% (0.5 MtCO2e) between the base year and 2024. This can be explained by increasing livestock and agricultural combustion emissions, partly offset by reduced nitrogen fertiliser application.

Figure 4a: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Agriculture

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024
MtCO2e

Buildings and product uses

  • Emissions in this sector increased by 0.1 MtCO2e (5.0%) compared to 2023, with increased emissions from fuel combustion in residential buildings being the main contributory factor.

  • Fuel combustion in residential buildings is also the main contributory factor for the long-term 36.7% reduction in emissions in this sector (1.6 MtCO2e decrease compared to the base year). This is primarily due to a shift toward natural gas use from the late 1990s, which displaced more carbon-intensive fuels such as oil and coal.

Figure 4b: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Buildings and product uses

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024
MtCO2e

Domestic Transport

  • Domestic Transport emissions have increased compared to 2023 (0.03 MtCO2e, 0.8%). The lifting of the travel restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic caused an upwards trend of emissions between 2020 and 2021. This has begun to stabilise, and the emissions from this sector are still below pre-COVID levels.

  • Since the base year, emissions have increased by 0.3 MtCO2e (9.2%). Road transport emissions from cars and light and high-duty vehicles are the main reason for this increase, despite improvements in the efficiency of vehicles, with road transport emissions increasing by 9% over this period.

Figure 4c: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Domestic transport

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024
MtCO2e

Electricity Supply

  • Emissions decreased by 0.2 MtCO2e (8.3%) compared to 2023 for production of electricity, continuing a downward trend 3.3 MtCO2e (62.6%) since the base year. Although electricity generation from fossil fuels increased by 14% to 4.9 TWh in 2024, a shift from carbon intensive fossil fuel like coal (100% reduction) and petroleum (67% reduction) to cleaner fossil fuels such as natural gas resulted in decreased emissions10.
Figure 4d: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Electricity supply

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024
MtCO2e

Fuel Supply

  • Northern Ireland does not have any significant fuel supply infrastructure such as oil refineries. Small emissions estimated for this sector relate to leakages from the distribution network.
Figure 4e: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Fuel supply

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024
MtCO2e

Industry

  • Industry emissions decreased by 0.05 MtCO2e (4.4%) compared to 2023, driven by reductions in fuel combustion for food and drink industries and other manufacturing industries and construction stationary fuel use.

  • Compared to the base year, Industry emissions have decreased by 2.3 MtCO2e (69.4%). Decreased emissions from the food and drinks industry, the chemical industry, and cement are the main contributors to this reduction.

Figure 4f: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Industry

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024
MtCO2e

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

  • Northern Ireland is a net source of emissions from LULUCF activities despite some offsetting via forest land and grasslands. Total emissions are similar compared to 2023.

  • LULUCF emissions have decreased by 0.5 MtCO2e (18.2%) compared to the base year. Increased sequestration from forestland and grassland contributed to this, along with a reduction in emissions from croplands and settlements.

Figure 4g: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Land Use Change

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024
MtCO2e

Waste

  • Emissions from waste decreased by 0.02 MtCO2e (2.1%) compared to 2023 and 0.8 MtCO2e (52.9%) compared to the base year. These reductions are largely attributed to the progressive implementation of methane capture and oxidation systems in landfill management, as well as less waste being sent to landfill11.
Figure 4h: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Waste

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2024
MtCO2e

Emissions by Gas

Table 2a: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas, change in MtCO2e

Northern Ireland, Base year, 2023, 2024

Gas BaseYear 2023 2024 Change Base Year to 2024 Change 2023 to 2024
CO₂ 18.2 11.3 11.3 -6.9 0.0
CH₄ 5.9 5.5 5.4 -0.5 0.0
N₂O 1.9 1.4 1.5 -0.4 0.1
F-gases 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Total 26.0 18.4 18.4 -7.7 0.0

Table 2b: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas, % change

Northern Ireland, Base year, 2023, 2024

Gas BaseYear 2023 2024 % change Base Year to 2024 % change 2023 to 2024
CO₂ 18.2 11.3 11.3 -37.9 -0.1
CH₄ 5.9 5.5 5.4 -8.2 -0.7
N₂O 1.9 1.4 1.5 -22.2 3.6
F-gases 0.0 0.2 0.2 658.4 -7.3
Total 26.0 18.4 18.4 -29.4 0.0



Carbon dioxide has consistently been the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Northern Ireland from 1990 to 2024. Over this period, total CO2e emissions declined from 18.2 MtCO2e (70.0% of total emissions) in the base year to 11.3 MtCO2e (61.5%) in 2024. The main sectoral sources of CO2e emissions in 2024 were Domestic Transport (34.0%), followed by Buildings and Product Uses (23.5%), and Electricity Supply (17.5%).

The volume of emissions associated with methane and nitrous oxide, which come mainly from the Agriculture sector, have also shown a decrease from the base year, but these reductions have come at a slower rate. Methane emissions have shown a decrease of 0.5 MtCO2e (8.2%) whilst emissions of nitrous oxide have reduced by 0.4 MtCO2e (22.2%).

In the base year, methane made up 22.7% of total emissions and this proportion increased to 29.5% of all emissions in 2024. For nitrous oxide, the respective figures were 7.3% (base year) and 8.0% (2024).

Emissions from F-gases totalled 0.2 MtCO2e in 2024 (0.9% of the total greenhouse gases in 2024). The total volume of F-gases increased by 0.1 MtCO2e, since the base year, largely as a result of increased emissions of HFCs in the Buildings and Product Uses sector.

Table 3: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas within sector

Northern Ireland, 2024
MtCO2e

Sector CO₂ CH₄ N₂O HFCs PFCs SF₆ NF₃ All gases
Agriculture 0.3 4.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
Buildings and product uses 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
Domestic transport 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
Electricity supply 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
Fuel supply 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Industry 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
LULUCF 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
Waste 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total 11.3 5.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.4

Figure 5: Individual greenhouse gas emissions within sector

Northern Ireland, 2024 12



Carbon dioxide was the most abundant gas emitted across all sectors except for Agriculture, Waste and Fuel supply. For the Agriculture sector, methane from livestock and nitrous oxide from manures, slurries and fertilisers were more significant greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. Methane from landfill was the main greenhouse gas from the Waste sector. Methane from fugitive emissions in the gas distribution supply chain accounts for the main greenhouse gas from the Fuel supply sector.

Figure 6: Gas by sectoral breakdown

UK and Republic of Ireland Comparisons

  • The trends in greenhouse gas emissions vary across the different parts of the UK between the base year and 2024. It should be noted that the regional estimates are less certain than the overall UK estimate. Estimates for the UK are available in Tables 6 and 7 of the data tables that accompany this report.

    • UK has reduced emissions by 52.9%

    • England has reduced emissions by 55.0%

    • Scotland has reduced emissions by 52.2%

    • Wales has reduced emissions by 44.5%

    • Northern Ireland has reduced emissions by 29.4%.

  • Note that the UK greenhouse gas emissions publication uses a 1990 base year for all gases (including fluorinated gases) which results in a reduction of 52.9% by 2024.

  • In the above list, for consistency with Northern Ireland methodology, the figures for Scotland and Wales, derived as part of the UK estimate, do not include international aviation and shipping. However, the Scottish and Welsh Government include international aviation and shipping in greenhouse gas statutory targets.

  • The Republic of Ireland greenhouse gas emissions were estimated to be 56.4 MtCO2e in 2024, which is 2.6% lower than emissions in 2023, and 9.1% lower than the 1990 base year13.

  • The annual change in greenhouse gases emitted by the Republic of Ireland between 2023 to 2024 is detailed below:

    • Agriculture: -0.3 MtCO2e (↓1.3%)

    • Transport: -0.2 MtCO2e (↓1.3%)

    • Energy industries: -0.7 MtCO2e (↓8.8%)

    • Residential: 0.3 MtCO2e (↑4.8%)

    • Manufacturing: 0 MtCO2e (↓0.1%)

    • LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry): -0.5 MtCO2e (↓15.2%)

Table 4 Comparative Insights: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2024)

Metric United Kingdom Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland
Total GHG MtCO₂e 373.4 56.4 18.4
% Change from 2023 -2.7 -2.6 -0.0
2024 Per capita emissions tonnes/person MtCO₂e 5.4 10.5 9.5
Sector share
Agriculture 12.5% 36.2% 31.4%
Electricity Supply / Energy (RoI) 10.1% 12.7% 10.8%
Domestic Transport / Transport (RoI) 29.6% 20.9% 21.3%
% change since 1990
Agriculture -15.4% -0.6% 10.0%
Electricity Supply / Energy (RoI) -81.5% -36.8% -62.6%
Domestic Transport / Transport (RoI) -11.1% 129.1% 9.2%

While both the UK and the Republic of Ireland compile their greenhouse gas inventories in accordance with IPCC guidelines, caution should be exercised when comparing the data due to methodological and reporting differences.

End user emissions

The end user inventory reallocates the emissions by source depending on where the end user activity occurred. For example, when reporting on a by source basis, the carbon dioxide produced by a power station is allocated to the energy supply sector. On an end user basis, these emissions are reallocated to the users of the electricity, such as domestic homes and industry.

In 2024, total greenhouse gas emissions for Northern Ireland in the end user inventory were 18.5 MtCO2e. Agriculture accounted for 31.4% of these end user emissions. The Domestic transport, Buildings and product uses, and LULUCF sectors were the next biggest contributors to end user emissions, at 23.3%, 20.1% and 11.6%, respectively.

End user emissions do not take account of emissions “embedded” within manufactured goods and services which the UK imports and exports. Embedded emissions capture what is sometimes referred to as the “carbon footprint”. Such a calculation would be on a “consumption” basis, reporting on emissions embedded in goods and services across international borders, and is considerably more challenging.

Statistics on the UK’s Carbon Footprint are available from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs UK’s carbon footprint.

Global Warming Potentials

The emissions estimates in this report cover seven greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). Depending on their molecular weights, radiative properties and residence times in the atmosphere, each greenhouse gas has a different capacity to cause global warming.

Global warming potentials (GWPs) are used to estimate the climate change impacts of various greenhouse gas emissions and express them in a single unit – carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e). As such the GWP for each gas is defined as its warming influence relative to that of CO2 over a given time period, typically 100 years.

The GWPs commonly used in greenhouse gas reporting are defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a primary authority on climate change science. The values for GWPs have been revised on a number of occasions, with each update incorporating the results of advances in scientific knowledge. In November 2021 during the Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), the international community agreed that greenhouse gas emissions reporting, under the Paris Agreement transparency framework, should use the 100-year GWPs (without climate feedback14) that are set out in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment report (AR5). For that reason, estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in this year’s publication arebased on AR5 GWPs100.

Revisions to the Northern Ireland Greenhouse Gas Inventory

In line with the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory revision process, estimates of emissions for Northern Ireland are reviewed each year and the whole historical data series is revised, where necessary, to incorporate methodological improvements, changes to international reporting guidelines, or new data. Table 5 demonstrates the impact of these revisions on the base year and for the year 2023, the latest year available for both the previous and current year’s emission estimates.

Full details of the methods used to produce the latest greenhouse gas emissions estimates are published in the UK’s National Inventory Report (NIR)15.

Changes are applied back through the time series to 1990 in order to ensure that the trend in emissions from 1990 to the latest year is based on a consistent method. Therefore, it is not appropriate to compare the emissions time series from one year with that from another. However, the latest inventory represents a single consistent data series going back to 1990, and this therefore allows year-on-year comparisons to be made.

Table 5: Revisions in the NI Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2024, TES Sectors

Northern Ireland, Base year and 2023
MtCO2e

Sector Base Year (1990-2023) Base Year (1990-2024) Base Year Change 2023 (1990-2023) 2023 (1990-2024) 2023 Change
Agriculture 5.2 5.2 0.0 5.6 5.7 0.1
Buildings and product uses 4.4 4.5 0.0 2.5 2.7 0.2
Domestic transport 3.7 3.6 -0.1 3.9 3.9 0.0
Electricity supply 5.3 5.3 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.0
Fuel supply 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Industry 3.3 3.3 0.0 1.1 1.1 -0.1
LULUCF 2.6 2.6 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.0
Waste 2.0 1.5 -0.5 0.8 0.7 -0.1
Total 26.6 26.0 -0.6 18.2 18.4 0.2


Table 6: Revisions in the NI Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2024, Key CRT Categories

Northern Ireland, Base year and 2023
ktCO2e

CRT Category Description Base Year (1990-2023) Base Year (1990-2024) Base Year Change 2023 (1990-2023) 2023 (1990-2024) 2023 Change
Managed anaerobic waste disposal sites 1,844.2 1,381.0 -463.1 569.9 511.2 -58.8
Transport 3,506.8 3,375.2 -131.6 3,793.8 3,777.9 -15.9
Stationary fuel use 3,723.1 3,789.3 66.2 2,027.3 2,218.0 190.7
Other sectors fuel use 4,649.7 4,685.6 35.9 2,620.0 2,779.7 159.7
Enteric Fermentation and Manure Management 3,869.1 3,902.4 33.3 4,500.7 4,535.4 34.7
International Navigation 127.0 102.9 -24.0 158.6 139.0 -19.7
Commercial/Institutional stationary fuel use 677.4 655.3 -22.1 340.2 334.4 -5.8
Domestic wastewater treatment and discharge 80.0 58.8 -21.2 92.0 73.2 -18.8
Other manufacturing industries and construction stationary fuel use 1,371.7 1,388.3 16.6 394.4 352.4 -42.1
Industrial wastewater treatment and discharge 24.8 31.8 7.0 37.2 62.2 25.1

Table 7: Revisions in the NI Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2024, LULUCF Subsectors

Northern Ireland, Base year and 2023
MtCO2e

Source category Base Year (1990-2023) Base Year (1990-2024) Base Year Change 2023 (1990-2023) 2023 (1990-2024) 2023 Change
Forestry -0.50 -0.50 0.00 -0.58 -0.58 0.00
Peatland 2.50 2.47 -0.02 2.33 2.31 -0.02
Cropland mineral soils under LUC 0.92 0.92 0.00 0.84 0.84 0.00
Grassland mineral soils under LUC -1.10 -1.10 0.00 -1.12 -1.12 0.00
Settlement 0.81 0.81 0.00 0.68 0.68 0.00
Bioenergy crops * 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other LULUCF 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00

*There were no emissions from Bioenergy crops in the Base Year. In 2023 (for both the current and previous submissions), Bioenergy crops was a very small net sink.


Reasons for revisions to the Northern Ireland data include the following:

Agriculture

In agriculture, a number of updates have been made to improve the accuracy of the estimates. These mainly reflect better data becoming available and corrections to earlier assumptions. For example, fuel use figures have been revised following improvements in national energy data, which affects how fuel use was estimated in earlier years. Changes have also been made to livestock emissions, including updated information on milk production, animal weights and how animals are managed. These changes affect how much methane and other gases are estimated to be produced. There have also been updates to how manure emissions are calculated, reflecting improved understanding of how waste is produced and treated. In addition, a significant revision has been made to fertiliser use in 2023, replacing an earlier estimate with new survey data. This has led to a noticeable change in emissions for that year.

Buildings and product uses

For buildings and product use, the recalculations are mainly due to improved energy data and updates to how this data is assigned to different locations. Changes to fuel use estimates, particularly for gas and oil, have been applied across the time series. These reflect improvements in how energy data is collected and interpreted. There have also been updates to how emissions are distributed geographically within Northern Ireland. This includes improved mapping for domestic fuel use, especially oil. In addition, there has been a specific revision to how peat use was estimated for 1990, using more appropriate assumptions about its energy content and carbon emissions.

Domestic transport

The largest change in transport relates to shipping emissions. The method used to estimate these emissions has been significantly improved by using newer data and a different approach. This includes using more recent information on ship movements and updated assumptions about fuel use. As a result, shipping emissions have been recalculated across the time series. For road transport in Northern Ireland, updated data has been used, but this mainly affects how emissions are allocated between fuel types rather than the overall level of emissions.

Electricity supply

Emissions for electricity supply have been recalculated using updated gas use data.

Fuel supply

Changes in this area relate to improvements in how emissions from the oil and gas sector are recorded. In some cases, reported data from operators has been used instead of earlier estimates, leading to a more accurate split between different types of emissions.

Industry

In the industry sector, recalculations mainly reflect improved energy data and corrections to earlier inconsistencies. Historical fuel use data has been reviewed and adjusted to create a more consistent picture over time. There have also been updates to specific industrial processes, such as iron and steel production, using improved assumptions about emissions. In Northern Ireland, additional updates have been made to how industrial emissions are mapped geographically, particularly for food and drink industries and machinery use. These changes improve how emissions are distributed across different areas but do not fundamentally change total emissions.

LULUCF

Updates in this sector reflect improvements in land use data and modelling. This includes better information on forests, grassland and wetlands, as well as how carbon is stored and released in soils and vegetation. For Northern Ireland, additional historical data on tree planting has been included, improving estimates for earlier years.

Waste

In the waste sector, recalculations are mainly due to updated models for landfill and wastewater emissions. These models now use improved data and methods, resulting in revised estimates across the time series. There have also been updates specific to Northern Ireland and other devolved areas, including improved data on methane flaring and landfill gas. In addition, the way wastewater emissions are distributed geographically has been updated to use more detailed information rather than relying on population as a proxy. This provides a more accurate representation of where emissions occur.

Replacement of National Communication sectors with Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors

Earlier greenhouse gas bulletins for Northern Ireland (before the 2022 inventory) grouped emissions by National Communication (NC) sectors. After consulting stakeholders, it was decided to switch to Territorial Emissions Statistics (TES) sectors to better meet user needs.

A detailed breakdown of how emissions sources from NC sectors have been reallocated to TES sectors is provided below.

TES Sector Emissions Sources in Scope According to Their NC Sector Allocation
Agriculture The coverage of the Agriculture sector is unchanged. However, there have been some changes to the categories within the Agriculture sector.
Buildings and Product Uses Business – Includes emissions from combustion on commercial sites previously allocated to the Business sector. Also includes emissions from product uses in Business such as nitrous oxide (N2O) use as an anaesthetic, or stationary refrigeration and air conditioning.
Public – Includes all emissions previously allocated to the Public sector.
Residential – Includes emissions from residential fuel combustion and product uses such as recreational N2O use, aerosols, and metered dose inhalers previously allocated to the Residential sector.
Industrial Processes – Includes emissions from the use of N2O in industry previously allocated to the Industrial Processes sector.
Domestic Transport Transport – Includes all emissions previously allocated to the Transport sector.
Business – Includes F-gas emissions from mobile air conditioning and transport refrigeration previously categorised as part of the Business sector.
Electricity Supply Energy Supply – Includes emissions from power stations previously allocated to the Energy Supply sector.
Fuel Supply Energy Supply – Includes emissions from fuel production and fuel supply activities such as mining, refining, manufacturing, and distributing fuels previously allocated to the Energy Supply sector.
Industry Business – Most Industry sector emissions carry over from the Business sector. These comprise of emissions from manufacturing and construction, as well as industrial refrigeration and air conditioning.
Industrial Processes – Most emissions previously categorised as part of the Industrial processes sector have been reallocated to the Industry sector.
Energy Supply – Emissions from coke production previously categorised as part of the Energy Supply sector are now included in the Industry sector as energy from coke production is primarily used in the iron and steel industry.
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) LULUCF – The coverage of the LULUCF sector is unchanged. However, there have been some substantial changes to the categories within the LULUCF sector to align better with land use policy. Key changes include the separation of forestry and peatlands related emissions into their own sub-sectors, as well as the creation of new categories within forestry and peatlands that better describe the emissions and removals.
Waste Waste Management – Includes all emissions previously allocated to the Waste Management sector.
Business – Includes emissions from accidental fires previously allocated to the Business sector.
Residential – Includes emissions from household composting, small-scale waste burning, and accidental fires previously allocated to the Residential sector.

Overview of Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors

Sector Description
Agriculture Emissions from agricultural machinery and fuel combustion, livestock (enteric fermentation and manure management) and agricultural soils (excluding carbon stock changes which are included in the LULUCF sector).
Buildings and Product Uses Emissions from fuel combustion in residential, public, and commercial buildings, largely for heating. Also includes emissions from house and garden mobile machinery, anaesthetics, F-gases from air conditioning, refrigeration, heat pumps, aerosols as well as other product uses. Excludes emissions from industrial buildings which are instead included in the Industry sector.
Domestic Transport Emissions from road vehicles, domestic aviation and shipping (including military), fishing vessels, and railways. Also includes emissions from transport related mobile machinery (e.g. at airports and ports) and F-gases from mobile air conditioning and refrigeration. International aviation and shipping emissions are not included in the national total, though are reported separately.
Electricity supply Emissions from power stations for electricity generation, including incinerators generating energy from waste. Excludes emissions from organisations generating their own electricity (autogeneration) even when exported to the electricity grid. These emissions are instead included in the sector in which they occur.
Fuel Supply Emissions from the supply of fuels, e.g. oil, gas and coal. Includes activities such as extraction, production, venting, flaring, processing (e.g. oil refining) and distribution. Excludes emissions from coke production which are instead included in the Industry sector as coke is primarily used in the iron and steel industry.
Industry Emissions from fuel combustion in the manufacturing and construction industries, industrial processes, and F-gases from industrial refrigeration. Emissions from coke production are included in this sector as coke is primarily used in the iron and steel industry. Includes emissions from organisations generating their own electricity and heat (autogeneration) even when exported to the electricity grid or used in heat networks.
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Includes emissions and removals of CO2 from changes in the carbon stock in forestland, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements and harvested wood products, and emissions of other greenhouse gases from drainage (excl. croplands and intensive grasslands) and rewetting of soils, nitrogen mineralisation associated with loss and gain of soil organic matter, and fires. As impacts of carbon stock changes are included in this sector, CO2 emissions of biogenic origin (e.g. burning biomass for energy) are excluded from other sectors to avoid double counting.
Waste Emissions from the treatment and disposal of waste, such as landfill, composting, incineration without energy recovery and wastewater handling. Excludes emissions from incinerators generating energy from waste as these are reported in the Electricity Supply sector.

Monitoring Progress

NI Climate Change Act

The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) which came into operation on 7 June 2022 establishes a legally binding framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Northern Ireland. The Act mandated that:

  • The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for the year 2050 is at least 100% lower than the baseline.

  • The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for carbon dioxide for the year 2050 is at least 100% lower than the baseline for carbon dioxide.

  • This does not require the net Northern Ireland emissions account for methane for the year 2050 to be more than 46% lower than the baseline for methane.

  • The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for the year 2040 is in line with the target for the year 2050.

  • The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for the year 2030 is at least 48% lower than the baseline.

Additional legislation has also been approved by the Northern Ireland Executive that delivers further on key statutory requirements of the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022.

UK Climate Change Act

At the UK level, the Climate Change Act 2008 sets a legally binding target for net zero emissions by 2050, supported by five-year carbon budgets16. These budgets, which run through to 2037, guide emissions reductions across all UK administrations, including Northern Ireland17. The UK met its first three budgets, with emissions 50% lower than 1990 levels by 2022, as confirmed in the final statement for the third carbon budget18. The current (fourth) budget runs from 2023 to 2027, with targets of 51% by 2025, 57% by 2030, and 78% by 2035.

Programme for Government Indicator

Greenhouse gas emissions estimates are included in the Programme for Government 2024-2027 framework as an indicator under the outcome “Protecting Lough Neagh and the Environment”. This framework emphasises the importance of sustainability and environmental protection as key priorities for the Northern Ireland Executive. The Programme for Government outlines a comprehensive approach to tackling climate change, improving water quality, and ensuring a fair and balanced transition to a net zero society.

Further information

Further information

  1. This is the seventeenth release of the Northern Ireland greenhouse gas inventory statistical bulletin. It will continue to be updated annually. The data were produced by a consortium led by Ricardo, on behalf of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), the Scottish Government, the Welsh Assembly Government and the Northern Ireland Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA).

  2. Emissions in this bulletin are reported according to the Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors. This is in accordance with international reporting guidelines from the UNFCCC. Descriptions of each sector are available in the above section “Overview of Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors”.

  3. The Kyoto Protocol, a 1997 addition to the UNFCCC treaty, committed countries, including the UK, to monitor emissions and report on an emission reduction target over the period 2008 to 2012. In December 2012, the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol was adopted for a second commitment period, 2013 to 2020, with new reduction targets agreed for industrialised countries and economies in transition. Assessments of the fulfilment of these targets is in its final stages.

  4. The reduction in emissions for the UK is set against a baseline of emissions in 1990 (for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) and 1995 (for the F gases, i.e., hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride). The sum of these emissions in 1990 and 1995 is called the base year emissions.

  5. Beyond the reduction targets of the Doha Agreement, 196 countries, at the Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the UNFCC in Paris in 2015, signed up to an international treaty to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. This ‘Paris Agreement’ requires countries to submit climate action plans, referred to as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. Each successive NDC is expected to be increasingly ambitious. The UK’s reporting obligations under the Paris Agreement are now governed by the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF), which standardises how countries track and communicate progress on their climate commitments.

  6. The greenhouse gas emission estimates are based on a wide range of data sources and sources of uncertainty include statistical differences, assumptions, proxy datasets and expert judgement. In addition, the natural variability in the processes that are being modelled introduce uncertainty. For example, carbon content of fuels and farming practices under different climatic conditions and soil types. Therefore, when using the statistics in this bulletin, users should be mindful of the uncertainty around the published estimates. These uncertainties are presented as confidence intervals, and the width of the interval provides a measure of the accuracy of the estimate.

  7. Uncertainty estimates for Northern Ireland emissions are available for the base year, the latest year 2024 and for the percentage change between these two years. For the base year, a close approximation of the 95% confidence interval is ±6%, and for 2024 it is ±5%. For the percentage reduction between the base year and 2024, the 95% confidence interval ranges from 24% to 36%. There remains greater uncertainty around emissions in Northern Ireland compared to other parts of the United Kingdom due to the relative importance of methane and nitrous oxide emissions in the Agriculture sector. Emissions of these gases are more difficult to estimate than carbon dioxide, and the Agriculture sector makes up a larger share of Northern Ireland’s emissions than in other parts of the UK. In addition, the fuel activity data for Northern Ireland is more uncertain than other devolved administrations, due to the greater use of solid fuels and oils.

  8. Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing or via the OSR website.

  9. The UK greenhouse gas inventory National Statistics user guide provides a simple guide to the origins and use of data in the compilation of the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory. This guide can be accessed through the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) website An introduction to the UK’s greenhouse gas inventory.

  10. A summary of the quality issues relating to statistics on UK territorial greenhouse gas emissions is available within the UK Background Quality Report and the methodology used to compile the UK national inventory is described in The National Inventory Report

Contact Details

Published by: Statistics and Analytical Services Branch, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs

Lead Statistician: Hugh McNickle

Telephone: 028 90 765878

Email: branch.stats@daera-ni.gov.uk

Accessibility contact

Please contact Dissemination Branch for assistance with accessibility requirements or alternative formats. Contact details are:

Email:

Telephone: +44 (0)300 200 7836

Dissemination Branch
NISRA
Colby House
Stranmillis Court
BELFAST
BT9 5RR