NI Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2023

NI Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2023

Status: Official Statistics

Publication date: 10 June 2025

Key Points

• In 2023 Northern Ireland’s net greenhouse gas emissions were estimated to be 18.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). This net figure is a result of an estimated 20.1 MtCO₂e total emissions, offset by 1.9 MtCO₂e of emissions removed through sequestration.

• The net figure of 18.2 MtCO₂e in 2023 represents a decrease of 7.1% compared with 2022. The longer-term trend showed a decrease of 31.5% compared with the base year. The base year is 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for the fluorinated gases.

• In 2023, Agriculture was the largest emitter, responsible for 30.8% of emissions. Domestic transport followed as the second largest contributor, responsible for 21.5% of overall emissions. The Buildings and product uses sector, along with the Land use, land use changes, and forestry (LULUCF) sector, contributed 13.8% and 11.8% respectively. Additionally, the Electricity Supply sector accounted for 11.7% of emissions.

• Between 2022 and 2023 all sectors (with the exception of Fuel Supply and LULUCF) showed a decrease in emissions. The largest decreases in terms of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent were in Electricity Supply (0.9 MtCO₂e), Buildings and product uses (0.4 MtCO₂e) and Agriculture (0.1 MtCO₂e) sectors.

• In 2023, Northern Ireland contributed 4.7% of all UK greenhouse gas emissions, which stood at 385 MtCO₂e. In the UK there has been a 52.7% reduction in emissions between the base year and 2023. During the same period, the reduction in emissions in Northern Ireland was 31.5%, compared to 55.1% in England, 52.7% in Scotland and 38.5% in Wales.

Introduction

The purpose of this statistical bulletin is to summarise the latest published estimates of greenhouse gas emissions for Northern Ireland. The tables these estimates are sourced from is available from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory website Devolved Administrations - Greenhouse Gas Reports.

The focus of this report is on ‘by source’ emissions, which are allocated to the source sector in which they occur. ‘End user’ emissions, where energy supply emissions are allocated to energy users, are also available.

Territorial Emissions Statistics Sectors

Previous Northern Ireland greenhouse gas inventory statistical bulletins categorised emissions estimates into National Communication (NC) sectors. Following consultation with key stakeholders, it was proposed¹ that the emissions estimates be categorised into Territorial Emissions Statistics (TES) sectors in order to better meet users’ needs. A summary of how emissions sources from NC sectors have been reallocated to TES sectors is provided in the diagram below. See Replacement of National Communication sectors with Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors for further information.

Northern Ireland Summary

Figure 1: Greenhouse gas emissions

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023

MtCO₂e

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In 2023, Northern Ireland’s net greenhouse gas emissions² were estimated to be 18.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). This was a decrease of 7.1% compared to 2022. In absolute terms this is a fall of 1.4 MtCO₂e.

The longer-term trend showed a decrease of 31.5% compared to the base year³ estimate of 26.6 MtCO₂e. The base year is 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for the fluorinated gases⁴.

Figure 2: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas type

Northern Ireland, 2023⁵

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Carbon dioxide accounted for 61.5% of all greenhouse gas emissions in Northern Ireland (11.2 MtCO₂e) in 2023. The proportions of other greenhouse gases were methane 30.2%, nitrous oxide 7.3% and hydrofluorocarbons 1.0%.

Northern Ireland contributed 4.7% of total UK greenhouse gas emissions, whilst accounting for 2.8% of the UK’s population in 2023⁶. Latest estimates show Northern Ireland accounted for 2.3% of UK’s economic output (Gross Value Added) in 2022⁷.

In terms of emissions per capita, Northern Ireland produced the equivalent of 9.5 tonnes of CO₂ per person compared with a UK figure of 5.6 tonnes of CO₂ per person.

Methane emissions attributable to Northern Ireland made up 9.6% of all UK methane emissions. Similarly, nitrous oxide emissions attributable to Northern Ireland made up 7.4% of all UK nitrous oxide emissions.

Due to the relative importance of agriculture in the Northern Ireland economy (1.4% of GVA, compared to 0.6% for UK⁸), Agricultural sources accounted for a higher proportion of emissions in Northern Ireland (30.8%) compared to other parts of the UK. The proportion for England, Wales and Scotland stands at 10.0%, 15.3% and 19.8% respectively.

Emissions by Sector

Figure 3: Greenhouse gas emissions by sector (%)

Northern Ireland, 2023

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Table 1a: Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, change in MtCO₂e

Northern Ireland; Base year, 2022, 2023

Sector	BaseYear	2022	2023	Change Base year to 2023	Change 2022 to 2023
Agriculture	5.2	5.7	5.6	0.4	-0.1
Buildings and product uses	4.4	2.9	2.5	-1.9	-0.4
Domestic transport	3.7	3.9	3.9	0.2	0.0
Electricity supply	5.3	3.0	2.1	-3.2	-0.9
Fuel supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Industry	3.3	1.2	1.1	-2.2	-0.1
LULUCF	2.6	2.1	2.1	-0.5	0.0
Waste	2.0	0.8	0.8	-1.2	0.0
Grand Total	26.6	19.6	18.2	-8.4	-1.4

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Table 1b: Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, % change

Northern Ireland; Base year, 2022, 2023

** Due to the small tonnages estimated for the Fuel supply sector, percentage change is not an appropriate measure to communicate the change between years.

Sector	BaseYear	2022	2023	% change base year to 2023	% change 2022 to 2023
Agriculture	5.2	5.7	5.6	8.0	-1.6
Buildings and product uses	4.4	2.9	2.5	-43.2	-12.4
Domestic transport	3.7	3.9	3.9	4.8	-0.3
Electricity supply	5.3	3.0	2.1	-60.0	-28.8
Fuel supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	**	10.1
Industry	3.3	1.2	1.1	-65.9	-4.4
LULUCF	2.6	2.1	2.1	-18.7	0.2
Waste	2.0	0.8	0.8	-61.0	-3.2
Total	26.6	19.6	18.2	-31.5	-7.1

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The largest sectors in terms of emissions in 2023 were Agriculture (30.8%), Domestic transport (21.5%), Buildings and product uses (13.8%) and Land use change (11.8%). The remaining emissions were produced by Electricity supply (11.7%), Industry (6.2%) and Waste (4.2%), with less than 0.0% of emissions from Fuel supply.

Between 2022 and 2023 the majority of sectors, with the exception of Land use change and Fuel supply, showed a decrease in emissions. Most sectors also showed a decreasing trend since the base year. The trends for each sector and the factors influencing them are as follows:

Agriculture

• In 2023, agricultural emissions fell by 0.1 MtCO₂e (1.6%) compared to 2022. This reduction is largely attributed to a 14% decrease in the purchase of manufactured fertilisers and a 4% decline in beef cattle numbers. Emissions from manufactured fertilisers and beef cattle dropped by 14% and 2% respectively. These changes reflect both reduced fertiliser use and a smaller beef herd. Additionally, total factor productivity declined by 4.6% between 2022 and 2023⁹.

• Emissions have remained largely consistent across the entire timeseries and have steadily increased by 8% (0.4 MtCO₂e) between the base year and 2023. This can be explained by increasing livestock and agricultural combustion emissions, partly offset by reduced nitrogen fertiliser application.

Figure 4a: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Agriculture

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023
MtCO₂e

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Buildings and product uses

• Emissions in this sector decreased by 0.4 MtCO₂e (12.4%) compared to 2022, with reduced emissions from fuel combustion in residential buildings as the main contributory factor.

• Fuel combustion in residential buildings is also the main contributory factor for the long-term 43.2% reduction in emissions in this sector (1.9 MtCO₂e decrease compared to the base year). This is primarily due to a shift toward natural gas use from the late 1990s, which displaced more carbon-intensive fuels such as oil and coal.

Figure 4b: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Buildings and product uses

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023
MtCO₂e

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Domestic Transport

• Domestic Transport emissions have slightly reduced compared to 2022 (0.01 MtCO₂e, 0.3%). The lifting of the travel restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic caused an upwards trend of emissions between 2020 and 2021. This has begun to level off, and the emissions from this sector are still below pre-COVID levels.

• Since the base year, emissions have increased by 0.2 MtCO₂e (4.8%). Road transport emissions from cars and light and high-duty vehicles are the main reason for this increase, despite improvements in the efficiency of vehicles, with road transport emissions increasing by 9% over this period.

Figure 4c: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Domestic transport

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023
MtCO₂e

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Electricity Supply

• Emissions decreased by 0.9 MtCO₂e (28.8%) compared to 2022 for production of electricity, continuing a trend where they have fallen 3.2 MtCO₂e (60.0%) since the base year. Electricity generation from fossil fuels fell by 19% in 2023¹⁰. This can be explained by the closure of Kilroot Power Station’s coal-fired units in September of 2023 and an increase in generation from renewable sources¹¹.

Figure 4d: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Electricity supply

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023
MtCO₂e

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Fuel Supply

• Northern Ireland does not have any significant fuel supply infrastructure such as oil refineries. Small emissions estimated for this sector relate to leakages from the distribution network.

Figure 4e: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Fuel supply

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023
MtCO₂e

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Industry

• Industry emissions decreased by 0.1 MtCO₂e (4.4%) compared to 2022, with a reduction in emissions from food and drink, and chemical industries (6.1% reduction, 0.05MtCO₂e) and cement production (3.4% reduction, <0.01MtCO₂e).

• Compared to the base year, Industry emissions have decreased by 2.2 MtCO₂e (65.9%). Decreased emissions from the food and drinks industry, the chemical industry, and cement and nitric acid production are the main contributors to this reduction.

Figure 4f: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Industry

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023
MtCO₂e

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Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

• Northern Ireland is a net source of emissions from LULUCF activities despite some offsetting via forest land and grasslands. Total emissions are similar compared to 2022.

• LULUCF emissions have decreased by 0.5 MtCO₂e (18.7%) compared to the base year. Increased sequestration from forestland and grassland contributed to this, along with a reduction in emissions from croplands and settlements.

Figure 4g: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Land Use Change

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023
MtCO₂e

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Waste

• Emissions from waste decreased by 0.03 MtCO₂e (3.2%) compared to 2022 and 1.2 MtCO₂e (61.0%) compared to the base year. These reductions are largely attributed to the progressive implementation of methane capture and oxidation systems in landfill management.

Figure 4h: Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Waste

Northern Ireland, 1990, 1995, 1998-2023
MtCO₂e

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Emissions by Gas

Table 2a: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas, change in MtCO₂e

Northern Ireland, Base year, 2022, 2023

Gas	BaseYear	2022	2023	Change base year to 2023	Change 2022 to 2023
CO₂	18.3	12.4	11.2	-7.1	-1.2
CH₄	6.4	5.6	5.5	-0.9	-0.1
N₂O	1.9	1.4	1.3	-0.5	0.0
‘F-gases’	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0
Total	26.6	19.6	18.2	-8.4	-1.4

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Table 2b: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas, % change

Northern Ireland, Base year, 2022, 2023

Gas	BaseYear	2022	2023	% change base year to 2023	% change 2022 to 2023
CO₂	18.3	12.4	11.2	-38.9%	-10.0%
CH₄	6.4	5.6	5.5	-13.4%	-1.9%
N₂O	1.9	1.4	1.3	-29.1%	-2.5%
‘F-gases’	0.0	0.2	0.2	711.4%	-4.5%
Total	26.6	19.6	18.2	-31.5%	-7.1%

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Carbon dioxide has consistently been the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Northern Ireland from 1990 to 2023. Over this period, total CO₂e emissions declined from 18.3 MtCO₂e (69.0% of total emissions) in the base year to 11.2 MtCO₂e (61.5%) in 2023. The main sectoral sources of CO₂e emissions in 2023 were Domestic Transport (34.2%), followed by Buildings and Product Uses (20.7%), and Electricity Supply (18.9%).

The volume of emissions associated with methane and nitrous oxide, which come mainly from the Agriculture sector, have also shown a decrease from the base year, but these reductions have come at a slower rate. Methane emissions have shown a decrease of 0.9 MtCO₂e (13.4%) whilst emissions of nitrous oxide have reduced by 0.5 MtCO₂e (29.1%).

In the base year, methane made up 23.9% of total emissions and this proportion increased to 30.2% of all emissions in 2023. For nitrous oxide, the respective figures were 7.1% (base year) and 7.3% (2023).

Emissions from F-gases totalled 0.2 MtCO₂e in 2023 (1.0% of the total greenhouse gases in 2023). The total volume of F-gases increased by 0.2 MtCO₂e, since the base year, largely as a result of increased emissions of HFCs in the Buildings and Product Uses sector.

Table 3: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas within sector

Northern Ireland, 2023
MtCO₂e

Sector	CO₂	CH₄	N₂O	HFCs	PFCs	SF₆	NF₃	All gases
Agriculture	0.3	4.3	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.6
Buildings and product uses	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5
Domestic transport	3.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9
Electricity supply	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1
Fuel supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Industry	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1
LULUCF	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1
Waste	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8
Total	11.2	5.5	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	18.2

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Figure 5: Individual greenhouse gas emissions within sector¹²

Northern Ireland, 2023

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Carbon dioxide was the most abundant gas emitted across all sectors except for Agriculture, Waste and Fuel supply. For the Agriculture sector, methane from livestock and nitrous oxide from manures, slurries and fertilisers were more significant greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. Methane from landfill was the main greenhouse gas from the Waste sector. Methane from fugitive emissions in the gas distribution supply chain accounts for the main greenhouse gas from the Fuel supply sector.

UK and Republic of Ireland Comparisons

• The trends in greenhouse gas emissions vary across the different parts of the UK between the base year and 2023. It should be noted that the regional estimates are less certain than the overall UK estimate. Estimates for the UK are available in Tables 6 and 7 of the data tables that accompany this report.

  • UK has reduced emissions by 52.7%

  • England has reduced emissions by 55.1%

  • Scotland has reduced emissions by 52.7%

  • Wales has reduced emissions by 38.5%

  • Northern Ireland has reduced emissions by 31.5%.

• Note that the UK greenhouse gas emissions publication uses a 1990 base year for all gases (including fluorinated gases) which results in a reduction of 50.2% by 2023. In the above list, for consistency, the figure for Scotland and Wales, derived as part of the UK estimate, does not include international aviation and shipping. However, the Scottish and Welsh Government include international aviation and shipping in greenhouse gas statutory targets.

• The Republic of Ireland greenhouse gas emissions were estimated to be 58.8 MtCO2e in 2023, which is 6.0% lower than emissions in 2022, and 3.3% lower than the 1990 base year. This is the first time emissions have fallen below base year levels over the course of the timeline¹³.

• The annual change in greenhouse gases emitted by the Republic of Ireland between 2022 to 2023 is detailed below:

  • Agriculture: 20.7 MtCO₂e (↓4.9%)

  • Transport: 11.8 MtCO₂e (↑0.3%)

  • Energy industries: 7.9 MtCO₂e (↓21.4%)

  • Residential: 5.3 MtCO₂e (↓7.1%)

  • Manufacturing: 4.2 MtCO₂e (↓4.7%)

  • LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry): 3.9 MtCO₂e (↑6.5%)

Table 4 Comparative Insights: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2023)

Metric	United Kingdom	Republic of Ireland	Northern Ireland
Total GHG MtCO₂e	385.0	59.0	18.2
% Change from 2022	-4.9%	-6.0%	-7.1%
2023 Per capita emissions tonnes/person MtCO₂e	5.6	10.4	9.5
Agriculture share
Agriculture	12.1%	35.2%	30.8%
Electricity Supply / Energy (RoI)	11.4%	13.4%	11.7%
Domestic Transport / Transport (RoI)	29.0%	20.1%	21.5%
% change since 1990
Agriculture	-14.3%	0.7%	8.0%
Electricity Supply / Energy (RoI)	-78.5%	-30.7%	-60.0%
Domestic Transport / Transport (RoI)	-13.5%	129.4%	4.8%

While both the UK and the Republic of Ireland compile their greenhouse gas inventories in accordance with IPCC guidelines, caution should be exercised when comparing the data due to methodological and reporting differences.

End user emissions

The end user inventory reallocates the emissions by source depending on where the end user activity occurred. For example, when reporting on a by source basis, the carbon dioxide produced by a power station is allocated to the energy supply sector. On an end user basis, these emissions are reallocated to the users of the electricity, such as domestic homes and industry.

In 2023, total greenhouse gas emissions for Northern Ireland in the end user inventory were 18.2 MtCO₂e. Agriculture accounted for 31.1% of these end user emissions. The Domestic transport, Buildings and product uses, and LULUCF sectors were the next biggest contributors to end user emissions, at 23.8%, 19.7% and 11.8%, respectively.

End user emissions do not take account of emissions “embedded” within manufactured goods and services which the UK imports and exports. Embedded emissions capture what is sometimes referred to as the “carbon footprint”. Such a calculation would be on a “consumption” basis, reporting on emissions embedded in goods and services across international borders, and is considerably more challenging.

Statistics on the UK’s Carbon Footprint are available from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs UK’s carbon footprint.

Global Warming Potentials

The emissions estimates in this report cover seven greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF₃). Depending on their molecular weights, radiative properties and residence times in the atmosphere, each greenhouse gas has a different capacity to cause global warming.

Global warming potentials (GWPs) are used to estimate the climate change impacts of various greenhouse gas emissions and express them in a single unit – carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂e). As such the GWP for each gas is defined as its warming influence relative to that of CO2 over a given time period, typically 100 years.

The GWPs commonly used in greenhouse gas reporting are defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a primary authority on climate change science. The values for GWPs have been revised on a number of occasions, with each update incorporating the results of advances in scientific knowledge. In November 2021 during the Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), the international community agreed that greenhouse gas emissions reporting, under the Paris Agreement transparency framework, should use the 100-year GWPs (without climate feedback¹⁴) that are set out in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment report (AR5). For that reason, estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in this year’s publication are based on AR5 GWPs₁₀₀.

Revisions to the Northern Ireland Greenhouse Gas Inventory

In line with the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory revision process, estimates of emissions for Northern Ireland are reviewed each year and the whole historical data series is revised, where necessary, to incorporate methodological improvements, changes to international reporting guidelines, or new data. Table 4 demonstrates the impact of these revisions on the base year and for the year 2023, the latest year available for both the previous and current year’s emission estimates.

Full details of the methods used to produce the latest greenhouse gas emissions estimates are published in the UK’s National Inventory Report (NIR)¹⁵.

Changes are applied back through the time series to 1990 in order to ensure that the trend in emissions from 1990 to the latest year is based on a consistent method. Therefore, it is not appropriate to compare the emissions time series from one year with that from another. However, the latest inventory represents a single consistent data series going back to 1990, and this therefore allows year-on-year comparisons to be made.

Table 5: Revisions in the NI Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2023,

Northern Ireland, Base year and 2022
MtCO₂e

Sector	Base Year (1990-2022 GHGI)	Base Year (1990-2023 GHGI)	Base year change	2022 (1990-2022 GHGI)	2022 (1990-2023 GHGI)	2022 Change
Agriculture	5.4	5.2	-0.2	6.2	5.7	-0.5
Buildings and product uses	4.6	4.4	-0.2	3.3	2.9	-0.4
Domestic transport	3.6	3.7	0.1	3.9	3.9	0.1
Electricity supply	5.3	5.3	0.0	3.0	3.0	0.0
Fuel supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Industry	5.3	3.3	-2.0	2.1	1.2	-0.9
LULUCF	2.7	2.6	-0.1	2.2	2.1	0.0
Waste	2.0	2.0	-0.1	0.8	0.8	0.0
Grand Total	29.2	26.6	-2.6	21.6	19.6	-2.0

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Table 6: Changes to emissions estimates: CRT Category,

Northern Ireland, Base year and 2023
ktCO₂e

CRT Category	CRT Category Description	Previous submission Base year	Previous submission 2022	Current submission Base year	Current submission 2022
1B1	Active Deep Coal Mines Methane Emissions	NA	0.1	NA	0.1
1A2	Manufacturing industries and construction	4,562	1,815.0	2,547	932.0
1A4a	Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion	871	600.0	676	360.0
1A4b	Residential Fuel Combustion	3,707	2,522.0	3,731	2,368.0
1A4cii	Agricultural Offroad Vehicles	380	541.0	174	165.0
2C1	Iron and Steel Production	NA	NA	NA	NA
2F1	Refrigeration and Air Conditioning	2	144.0	2	147.0
3B	Manure Management	751	995.0	758	1,007.0

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Table 7: LULUCF Changes to emissions estimates ,

Northern Ireland, Base year and 2023
MtCO₂e

Source category	Previous submission Base year	Previous submission 2022	Current submission Base year	Current submission 2022
Forestry	-0.423	-0.561	-0.504	-0.564
Peatland	2.489	2.339	2.498	2.327
Cropland mineral soils under LUC	0.919	0.826	0.919	0.826
Grassland mineral soils under LUC	-1.104	-1.120	-1.104	-1.120
Settlement	0.807	0.652	0.807	0.652
Bioenergy crops	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Other LULUCF	0.028	0.023	0.027	0.023

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Reasons for revisions to the Northern Ireland data include the following:

Agriculture

• Recalculation occurred due to recalculations to agricultural stationary combustion, related to improvement of burning oil distribution by DUKES.
• Incorporation of new agricultural offroad (i.e. non-road) fuel use mapping from 2005-2023, resulted in a decrease across the entire timeseries.
• For later years bottom-up recalculations and revisions to Defra agricultural statistics resulted in decreases to agricultural non-road mobile machinery (NRMM) emissions at a UK level.
• The storage mitigation activity data for cattle in Northern Ireland was revised across the entire timeseries, affecting emissions from manure spreading.
• Inclusion of new data, saw emissions from fertilisers to be lower than previous modelled/calculated.
• Northern Ireland 2022 recalculations to 3D1a and 3D2ai, driven by the replacement of grass and arable fertiliser data not available in time for the previous inventory are now included.

Buildings and product uses

• Revisions to the Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) burning oil values for pre-1998 (driving base year changes) and from 2009 (driving 2022 changes), resulting in lower emissions across the time series for commercial and public sector combustion than previously reported.
• Revisions to residential combustion values to include new data sources, as well as revisions to historical assumptions for this category.
• Methodology for estimating f-gas emissions from commercial refrigeration was changed to use the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) analysis rather than Gross Domestic Production (GDP).

Domestic transport

• Methodology for calculating emissions from Military aviation changed to use Gross Value Added (GVA) rather than GDP.
• Recalculations were made to the road transport model within the UK inventory.
• Higher DERV consumption was estimated in cars in the last few years of the timeseries.

Electricity supply

• Minor UK level recalculations to the Pollution Inventory (PI) data in later years of the timeseries.

Fuel supply

• No changes made that affect Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Industry

• The majority of changes in this sector are driven by recalculations to emissions from Other industrial combustion, which fall under CRT Category 1A2. These recalculations reflect significant methodological improvements and data updates, including:
  • Redistribution of DUKES burning oil values: The Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) data was revised to better reflect actual fuel use patterns. This included redistributing burning oil values using more accurate sub-national data,
  • Integration of EPCs and DECs: Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) and Display Energy Certificates (DECs) were incorporated into the model. These provided a more accurate indication of where oil and solid fuels were used across Northern Ireland,
  • Improved fuel use allocation: The methodology for distributing oil, gas, and petroleum use was refined, increasing the accuracy of emissions estimates,
  • Updated spatial mapping grids: Mapping grids used to allocate emissions geographically were updated across the Devolved Administrations. For Northern Ireland, this improved the precision of emissions allocation by sector and location.
• These updates led to a substantial downward revision in Northern Ireland’s industrial emissions estimates, with 2022 emissions under CRT 1A2 revised from 1,815 ktCO₂e to 932 ktCO₂e—a reduction of nearly 49%.

Additional improvements include:

• Revisions to non-road mobile machinery (NRMM): Updates were made across the timeseries due to gas oil reconciliation improvements, bottom-up updates for forklifts, and changes to other industry NRMM use.
• F-gas estimation methodology: For industrial refrigeration, the estimation method was improved by replacing GDP-based allocation with Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) data, enhancing sectoral accuracy.

LULUCF

• Updates to the CARBINE model (a carbon accounting model developed by Forest Research) drove the small changes seen in this sector. Revisions were made to the estimations of early growth, a fix to the dead branch decay rate and incorporation of carbon from dead branches into soil.
• Fixes were made to improve the estimation of harvest intensity for private forests in Northern Ireland.
• Deforestation estimations were updated based on rewetting data for Northern Ireland.
• Recalculations to emissions from grassland organic soils due to updated data regarding peatland restoration areas.

Waste

• Changes were made to the delay time for decay in the model used to calculate landfill emissions, resulting in decreases in emissions earlier in the timeseries and an increase in later years.

Replacement of National Communication sectors with Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors

Earlier greenhouse gas bulletins for Northern Ireland (before the 2022 inventory) grouped emissions by National Communication (NC) sectors. After consulting stakeholders, it was decided to switch to Territorial Emissions Statistics (TES) sectors to better meet user needs.

A detailed breakdown of how emissions sources from NC sectors have been reallocated to TES sectors is provided below.

TES Sector	Emissions Sources in Scope According to Their NC Sector Allocation
Agriculture	The coverage of the Agriculture sector is unchanged. However, there have been some changes to the categories within the Agriculture sector.
Buildings and Product Uses	Business – Includes emissions from combustion on commercial sites previously allocated to the Business sector. Also includes emissions from product uses in Business such as nitrous oxide (N2O) use as an anaesthetic, or stationary refrigeration and air conditioning. Public – Includes all emissions previously allocated to the Public sector. Residential – Includes emissions from residential fuel combustion and product uses such as recreational N2O use, aerosols, and metered dose inhalers previously allocated to the Residential sector. Industrial Processes – Includes emissions from the use of N2O in industry previously allocated to the Industrial Processes sector.
Domestic Transport	Transport – Includes all emissions previously allocated to the Transport sector. Business – Includes F-gas emissions from mobile air conditioning and transport refrigeration previously categorised as part of the Business sector.
Electricity Supply	Energy Supply – Includes emissions from power stations previously allocated to the Energy Supply sector.
Fuel Supply	Energy Supply – Includes emissions from fuel production and fuel supply activities such as mining, refining, manufacturing, and distributing fuels previously allocated to the Energy Supply sector.
Industry	Business – Most Industry sector emissions carry over from the Business sector. These comprise of emissions from manufacturing and construction, as well as industrial refrigeration and air conditioning. Industrial Processes – Most emissions previously categorised as part of the Industrial processes sector have been reallocated to the Industry sector. Energy Supply – Emissions from coke production previously categorised as part of the Energy Supply sector are now included in the Industry sector as energy from coke production is primarily used in the iron and steel industry.
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)	LULUCF – The coverage of the LULUCF sector is unchanged. However, there have been some substantial changes to the categories within the LULUCF sector to align better with land use policy. Key changes include the separation of forestry and peatlands related emissions into their own sub-sectors, as well as the creation of new categories within forestry and peatlands that better describe the emissions and removals.
Waste	Waste Management – Includes all emissions previously allocated to the Waste Management sector. Business – Includes emissions from accidental fires previously allocated to the Business sector. Residential – Includes emissions from household composting, small-scale waste burning, and accidental fires previously allocated to the Residential sector.

Overview of Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors

Sector	Description
Agriculture	Emissions from agricultural machinery and fuel combustion, livestock (enteric fermentation and manure management) and agricultural soils (excluding carbon stock changes which are included in the LULUCF sector).
Buildings and Product Uses	Emissions from fuel combustion in residential, public, and commercial buildings, largely for heating. Also includes emissions from house and garden mobile machinery, anaesthetics, F-gases from air conditioning, refrigeration, heat pumps, aerosols as well as other product uses. Excludes emissions from industrial buildings which are instead included in the Industry sector.
Domestic Transport	Emissions from road vehicles, domestic aviation and shipping (including military), fishing vessels, and railways. Also includes emissions from transport related mobile machinery (e.g. at airports and ports) and F-gases from mobile air conditioning and refrigeration. International aviation and shipping emissions are not included in the national total, though are reported separately.
Electricity supply	Emissions from power stations for electricity generation, including incinerators generating energy from waste. Excludes emissions from organisations generating their own electricity (autogeneration) even when exported to the electricity grid. These emissions are instead included in the sector in which they occur.
Fuel Supply	Emissions from the supply of fuels, e.g. oil, gas and coal. Includes activities such as extraction, production, venting, flaring, processing (e.g. oil refining) and distribution. Excludes emissions from coke production which are instead included in the Industry sector as coke is primarily used in the iron and steel industry.
Industry	Emissions from fuel combustion in the manufacturing and construction industries, industrial processes, and F-gases from industrial refrigeration. Emissions from coke production are included in this sector as coke is primarily used in the iron and steel industry. Includes emissions from organisations generating their own electricity and heat (autogeneration) even when exported to the electricity grid or used in heat networks.
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)	Includes emissions and removals of CO2 from changes in the carbon stock in forestland, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements and harvested wood products, and emissions of other greenhouse gases from drainage (excl. croplands and intensive grasslands) and rewetting of soils, nitrogen mineralisation associated with loss and gain of soil organic matter, and fires. As impacts of carbon stock changes are included in this sector, CO2 emissions of biogenic origin (e.g. burning biomass for energy) are excluded from other sectors to avoid double counting.
Waste	Emissions from the treatment and disposal of waste, such as landfill, composting, incineration without energy recovery and wastewater handling. Excludes emissions from incinerators generating energy from waste as these are reported in the Electricity Supply sector.

Monitoring Progress

NI Climate Change Act

The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) which came into operation on 7 June 2022 establishes a legally binding framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Northern Ireland. The Act mandated that:

• The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for the year 2050 is at least 100% lower than the baseline.

• The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for carbon dioxide for the year 2050 is at least 100% lower than the baseline for carbon dioxide.

• This does not require the net Northern Ireland emissions account for methane for the year 2050 to be more than 46% lower than the baseline for methane.

• The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for the year 2040 is in line with the target for the year 2050.

• The Northern Ireland departments must ensure that the net Northern Ireland emissions account for the year 2030 is at least 48% lower than the baseline.

Additional legislation has also been approved by the Northern Ireland Executive that delivers further on key statutory requirements of the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022.

• The Climate Change (Carbon Budgets 2023-2037) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2024 provide for a maximum total amount for the net Northern Ireland emissions account for the first three carbon budget periods as required by section 23(1) of the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022.

• The carbon budget for the 2023-2027 budgetary period is an annual average of 33% lower than the baseline.

• The carbon budget for the 2028-2032 budgetary period is an annual average of 48% lower than the baseline.

• The carbon budget for the 2033-2037 budgetary period is an annual average of 62% lower than the baseline

• The Climate Change (2040 Emissions Target) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2040 sets an emissions reduction target of 77% against 1990 greenhouse gas levels.

UK Climate Change Act

At the UK level, the Climate Change Act 2008 sets a legally binding target for net zero emissions by 2050, supported by five-year carbon budgets¹⁶. These budgets, which run through to 2037, guide emissions reductions across all UK administrations, including Northern Ireland¹⁷. The UK met its first three budgets, with emissions 50% lower than 1990 levels by 2022, as confirmed in the final statement for the third carbon budget¹⁸. The current (fourth) budget runs from 2023 to 2027, with targets of 51% by 2025, 57% by 2030, and 78% by 2035.

Programme for Government Indicator

Greenhouse gas emissions estimates are included in the Programme for Government 2024-2027 framework as an indicator under the outcome “Protecting Lough Neagh and the Environment”. This framework emphasises the importance of sustainability and environmental protection as key priorities for the Northern Ireland Executive. The Programme for Government outlines a comprehensive approach to tackling climate change, improving water quality, and ensuring a fair and balanced transition to a net zero society.

Further information

Further information

1. This is the sixteenth release of the Northern Ireland greenhouse gas inventory statistical bulletin. It will continue to be updated annually. The data were produced by a consortium led by Ricardo Energy and Environment, on behalf of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), the Scottish Government, the Welsh Assembly Government and the Northern Ireland Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA).

2. Emissions in this bulletin are reported according to the Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors. This is in accordance with international reporting guidelines from the UNFCCC. Descriptions of each sector are available in the above section “Overview of Territorial Emissions Statistics sectors”.

3. The Kyoto Protocol, a 1997 addition to the UNFCCC treaty, committed countries, including the UK, to monitor emissions and report on an emission reduction target over the period 2008 to 2012. In December 2012, the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol was adopted for a second commitment period, 2013 to 2020, with new reduction targets agreed for industrialised countries and economies in transition. Assessments of the fulfilment of these targets is in its final stages.

4. The reduction in emissions for the UK is set against a baseline of emissions in 1990 (for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) and 1995 (for the F gases, i.e., hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride). The sum of these emissions in 1990 and 1995 is called the base year emissions.

5. Beyond the reduction targets of the Doha Agreement, 196 countries, at the Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the UNFCC in Paris in 2015, signed up to an international treaty to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. This ‘Paris Agreement’ requires countries to submit climate action plans, referred to as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. Each successive NDC is expected to be increasingly ambitious. The UK’s reporting obligations under the Paris Agreement are now governed by the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF), which standardises how countries track and communicate progress on their climate commitments.

6. The greenhouse gas emission estimates are based on a wide range of data sources and sources of uncertainty include statistical differences, assumptions, proxy datasets and expert judgement. In addition, the natural variability in the processes that are being modelled introduce uncertainty. For example, carbon content of fuels and farming practices under different climatic conditions and soil types. Therefore, when using the statistics in this bulletin, users should be mindful of the uncertainty around the published estimates. These uncertainties are presented as confidence intervals, and the width of the interval provides a measure of the accuracy of the estimate.

7. Uncertainty estimates for Northern Ireland emissions are available for the base year, the latest year (2023) and for the percentage change between these two years. For the base year, a close approximation of the 95% confidence interval is ±8%, and for 2023 it is ±7%. For the percentage reduction between the base year and 2023, the 95% confidence interval ranges from 20% to 37%. There remains greater uncertainty around emissions in Northern Ireland compared to other parts of the United Kingdom due to the relative importance of methane and nitrous oxide emissions in the Agriculture sector. Emissions of these gases are more difficult to estimate than carbon dioxide, and the Agriculture sector makes up a larger share of Northern Ireland’s emissions than in other parts of the UK. In addition, the fuel activity data for Northern Ireland is more uncertain than other devolved administrations, due to the greater use of solid fuels and oils.

8. Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.

9. The UK greenhouse gas inventory National Statistics user guide provides a simple guide to the origins and use of data in the compilation of the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory. This guide can be accessed through the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) website An introduction to the UK’s greenhouse gas inventory.

10. A summary of the quality issues relating to statistics on UK territorial greenhouse gas emissions is available within the UK Background Quality Report and the methodology used to compile the UK national inventory is described in The National Inventory Report

Contact Details

Published by: Statistics and Analytical Services Branch, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs

Lead Statistician: Hugh McNickle

Telephone: 028 90 765878

Email: branch.stats@daera-ni.gov.uk

Accessibility contact

Please contact Dissemination Branch for assistance with accessibility requirements or alternative formats. Contact details are:

Email: info@nisra.gov.uk

Telephone: +44 (0)300 200 7836

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1. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/63e145ac8fa8f50e805a3e52/national-communication-sector-replacement-proposal-user-feedback.pdf ↩︎

2. Net emissions refer to total emissions minus removals of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by carbon sinks in the land use change sector. The land use change sector is the only sector that consists of emissions and removals. Net emissions exclude emissions from international aviation and shipping. ↩︎

3. The base year is 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for the fluorinated gases. ↩︎

4. Given the small differences involved, all references to ‘1990’, within tables and figures, refer to ‘base year’ estimates as provided by the Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Please see ‘Further Information’ section for more details. ↩︎

5. There are zero amounts of PFC and NF3 and a minimal amount of SF6 recorded in Northern Ireland and, as such, these gases are not included in the chart above. ↩︎

6. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2023#data-on-population-estimates ↩︎

7. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/regionalgrossdomesticproductallnutslevelregions ↩︎

8. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/24.25.095%20Stats%20Review%202023%20final.PDF ↩︎

9. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/24.25.095%20Stats%20Review%202023%20final.PDF ↩︎

10. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6762f0be3229e84d9bbde81a/Electricity_generation_and_supply_in_Scotland_Wales_Northern_Ireland___England_2019_to_2023.pdf ↩︎

11. https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/news/electricity-consumption-and-renewable-generation-northern-ireland-year-ending-december-2023 ↩︎

12. There are zero amounts of PFC and NF₃ as well as a minimal amount of SF₆ recorded in Northern Ireland and, as such, these gases are not included in the chart above. ↩︎

13. https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring--assessment/climate-change/air-emissions/irelands-final-greenhouse-gas-emissions-1990-2023.php ↩︎

14. The AR5 report presents two sets of GWP values, one that takes into account climate feedbacks, which measures the indirect effects of changes in carbon storage due to changes in climate, and one that does not. (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/) ↩︎

15. Previous UK NIRs can be found at The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory Reports. The latest NIR covering 1990-2022 emissions were submitted to the UNFCCC on 14th March 2024. (http://naei.beis.gov.uk/reports/) ↩︎

16. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents↩︎

17. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/carbon-budgets↩︎

18. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/664356ef4f29e1d07fadc6e9/third-carbon-budget-statement.pdf↩︎