Northern Ireland Carbon Intensity Indicators 2025

Key Points

Gross Value Added (GVA) is used to measure NI’s economic output, since 1998 it has grown substantially, while greenhouse gases have declined. The ratio of total greenhouse gas emissions to GVA, in NI, decreased 76% from 1998 to 2023 .
In 2023, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity for NI was estimated at around 0.32 kilograms of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent per £ of GVA. In 1998 this figure stood at 1.34 kilograms.
GHG emissions per capita decreased 43% from 16.6 tonnes CO2 equivalent per person in 1990 to 9.5 tonnes in 2023. The population increased by 20% over this period, while greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 31%.
GHG emissions per unit of electricity generated decreased 66% from 658 grams CO2 equivalent per kWh in 2004 to 222 grams in 2023. This has been driven by the growth of renewable energy generation in NI, a shift away from coal use towards gas for electricity generation, and improvements in energy efficiency.
Residential GHG emissions per household have decreased 34% from 3.70 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per household in 2008 to 2.45 tonnes in 2023. Fuel switching to natural gas from more carbon-intensive fuels such as coal and oil has reduced emissions, but more households create greater demand for energy.
The average CO2 emissions from licensed cars has declined over the years from 149.8 g/km in 2014 to 128.8g/km in 2024.
Total emissions (excluding sequestration) related to milk production decreased from an average of 1,927 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilogram of Energy Corrected Milk (ECM) in 1990 to 1155 grams in 2022. Whilst milk production in the dairy sector has expanded by 85% since 1990, the total number of dairy cows over this period has increased by only 13%, meaning this improvement in carbon footprint has been driven by substantial increases in milk yield per cow.
Waste management emissions per capita have decreased 68% from 1,226 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per person in 1990 to 398 kilograms in 2023. The population increased by 20% over this period while greenhouse gas emissions from waste management fell by 61%, due in a large part to the introduction of methane capture and oxidation systems at landfill sites.

Introduction

To complement the emissions data available from the historic GHG Inventory and the Northern Ireland (NI) GHG Projections and to help Government track the effectiveness of carbon reduction policies, a set of local Carbon Intensity (CI) indicators were developed during the work programme of the then Cross Departmental Working Group on Climate Change. The indicators will continue to inform the work of the Green Growth Strategy and NI Climate Action plan.

Rather than measuring absolute emissions levels, emissions intensity is concerned with capturing the amount of CO2 equivalent generated per unit of output or per capita, e.g., power sector emissions per unit of electricity generated or total NI emissions per head of population.

The value of taking such an approach is that, whilst overall emissions might be seen to be increasing for a particular sector in line with an expanding economy, the carbon intensity might be decreasing which could still be viewed as a positive outcome. The CI indicators are therefore another way of measuring progress made in NI towards reducing GHG emissions in terms of intensity as opposed to absolute emissions.

Estimated absolute emissions for NI are available in the Northern Ireland Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990 to 2023

The CI indicators are supplemented by a set of associated proxy indicators which, whilst not intensity indicators as such, are logically linked to emissions and/or emissions intensity levels. Consideration of proxy indicators allows a greater range of indicators to be monitored as there are less data constraints. It can also be easier to see how indicators are linked to various policy initiatives. Examples here could be the proportion of travel undertaken by sustainable means such as walking or cycling, or the energy efficiency of the building stock.

This report presents a series of indicators, for each of the key emissions sectors, with each section generally beginning with an intensity indicator (where available), supplemented by proxy indicators. For ease of reference, the intensity indicators have been highlighted in blue in Table 1 to distinguish them from supporting proxy indicators.

Trend data are presented as graphs, from as far back as practical to collect up to the latest year available. Separate tables with full time-series data are available on the Northern Ireland Carbon Intensity Indicators 2025 page. For some indicators, data may only recently have become available. In such cases, the current year will be the base year with the trend building from that point onwards. The intention is to update indicators on an annual basis.

A User Guidance document has been produced to support this report, which will develop over time. Users are strongly encouraged to refer to the Northern Ireland Carbon Intensity Indicators User Guidance 2025 when considering particular indicators. This will ensure a proper understanding of what each indicator measures, its significance in terms of emissions and intensity, and any notable limitations.

Summary of changes to indicators since previous publication

When the report is reviewed, some additional indicators may be added and in some instances indicators may need to be removed.

Table 3.5 - Due to delays in the NIHE House Conditions Survey, we have included data from the NISRA Continuous Household Survey (CHS). The CHS is a Northern Ireland-wide household survey administered by the Central Survey Unit (CSU) of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). It is based on a systematic random sample of addresses selected from the NISRA Address Register. The survey has been running since 1983 and is designed to provide a regular source of information on a wide range of social and economic issues relevant to Northern Ireland.This data is shown in table 3.5.2.

Table 6.6 - This report introduces a new metric: Soil Phosphorus Balance. This indicator measures the difference between phosphorus inputs (manufactured feed and fertiliser) and outputs (crop and livestock products). The indicator provides a high-level measure of potential environmental pressure, particularly the risk of nutrient losses that contribute to water quality degradation. While phosphorus does not directly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, efficient nutrient management reduces losses to water bodies, supporting sustainable land use and indirectly complementing climate mitigation strategies. By complementing the Soil Nitrogen Balance, this metric contributes to a more complete understanding of nutrient management efficiency across the agricultural sector and strengthens the evidence base for environmental monitoring and policy development.

Table 6.5 - Previous publications sourced data from Forest Research. To ensure consistency with the NI Environmental Statistics report, the source was changed to the NI Forest Service in 2024.

Where future changes occur they will be included here. Some of the data in this publication have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In some instances, data collection was disrupted and data are not available. In other instances the impacts of travel restrictions are apparent e.g. in transport data. Where data have been impacted, detail will be provided in the notes section for the relevant indicator.

Summary of indicator trends

Trend Summary Table

The table below summarizes both the long-term and recent trends for each Carbon Intensity (CI) indicator (highlighted in blue) and associated proxy indicators. Changes in trend are colour-coded for clarity:

Green – Positive change
Red – Negative change
Amber – No change or unclear change (For example, an increase in total kilometers travelled is not necessarily negative if a greater proportion of travel is by walking, cycling, or public transport rather than by car.)

Definitions:

Long-term trend: From the first year data are available to the most recent year.
Recent trend: Between the current year and the previous year.

Please Note:

The time period covered by long-term and recent trends varies by indicator.
Full time-series data tables are available on the Northern Ireland Carbon Intensity Indicators 2025 page.

Table 1 Summary of indicator trends

Indicator	Long term trend	Recent trend
CROSS-CUTTING INDICATORS
1.1 Ratio of greenhouse gas emissions to gross value added	Positive	Positive
1.2 Greenhouse gas emissions per capita	Positive	Positive
POWER SECTOR INDICATORS
2.1 Emissions per unit of electricity generated	Positive	Positive
2.2 Electricity generation by fuel type - Coal	Positive	Positive
2.2 Electricity generation by fuel type - Oil	Positive	Positive
2.2 Electricity generation by fuel type - Gas	Positive	Positive
2.2 Electricity generation by fuel type - Renewables	Positive	Positive
BUILDING SECTOR INDICATORS
3.1 Residential greenhouse gas emissions per household	Positive	Positive
3.2 Housing stock with energy efficiency measure - Full Cavity wall	Positive	No Change
3.2 Housing stock with energy efficiency measure -Loft insulation	Positive	Positive
3.2 Housing stock with energy efficiency measure -Full double-glazing	Positive	Positive
3.3 Standard Assessment Procedure ratings for residential buildings	Positive	Positive
3.4 Affordable Warmth Scheme grants processed - Insulation	Positive	Positive
3.4 Affordable Warmth Scheme grants processed - Heating	Positive	Negative
3.5 Primary energy source for heating of residential buildings - Oil	Negative	No Change
3.5 Primary energy source for heating of residential buildings - Gas	Positive	Positive
3.5 Primary energy source for heating of residential buildings - Solid fuel	Positive	Positive
INDUSTRY SECTOR INDICATORS
4.1 Number of participants in the Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme	Negative	No Change
4.2 CO2 emissions from participants in the Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme	Positive	Positive
TRANSPORT SECTOR INDICATORS
5.1 Average CO2 of Licensed cars	Positive	Positive
5.1 Licensed cars by C02 emissions 0-100 g/kg	Positive	Positive
5.1 Licensed cars by C02 emissions Over 170g/kg	Positive	Positive
5.2 Road transport emissions per vehicle kilometre travelled	Positive	Positive
5.3 Average distance travelled per person per year by mode of transport - All modes of transport	Positive	Negative
5.3 Average distance travelled per person per year by mode of transport - Walking/cycling	Positive	Negative
5.4 Mode of transport - Car, motorcycle, private taxis	Positive	Negative
5.4 Mode of transport - Walking/cycling	Positive	Negative
5.4 Mode of transport - Public transport	Negative	Negative
5.5 Bus operating kilometres	Negative	Positive
5.6 NI Rail operating kilometres	Negative	No Change
5.7 Plug-in cars, vans and quadricycles licensed	Positive	Positive
AGRICULTURE SECTOR INDICATORS
6.1 Emissions intensity of milk production	Positive	Positive
6.2 Area of new forest and woodland plantings	Positive	Positive
6.3 Soil nitrogen balance	Positive	Positive
6.4 Average daily carcase gain of steers	Positive	Negative
6.4 Average daily carcase gain of heifers	Positive	No Change
6.5 Metabolic energy from grass silage	Negative	No Change
6.6 Phosphorus balance	Positive	Negative
WASTE SECTOR INDICATORS
7.1 Greenhouse gas emissions from waste management per capita	Positive	Positive
7.2 Local authority collected municipal waste - Arisings	Positive	Negative
7.2 Local authority collected municipal waste - Recycling (including composting)	Positive	Positive
7.2 Local authority collected municipal waste - Energy Recovery	Positive	Positive
7.2 Local authority collected municipal waste - Landfill	Positive	Positive

Notes:

Indicator 2.2: Whether an increase/decrease in gas/oil use is good or bad with respect to greenhouse gas emissions will depend on the electricity source in the absence of the gas/oil.

Indicator 5.1: Caution should be applied when making comparisons because of breaks in time series.

Indicator 6.6: Phosphorus balance trend update: For this release, the long‑term trend for the phosphorus balance indicator has been reclassified as favourable, reflecting the sustained reduction in phosphorus surplus over the full time series. The short‑term trend remains classified as unfavourable, as recent year‑on‑year changes show a slight increase in the balance. These updates relate only to the interpretation of trends; the underlying data and methodology remain unchanged.

1. Cross cutting Indicators

1.1 Ratio of greenhouse gas emissions to gross value added

Sources: Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland: 1990-2023 Regional Gross Value added (balanced) per head and income components, ONS

Notes: GVA (Income Approach) at current basic prices

Figures for greenhouse gas emissions and gross value added are updated annually due to ongoing improvements to data collection or estimation techniques

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1.2 Greenhouse gas emissions per capita

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Sources: Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland: 1990-2023 NISRA, 2023 mid-year population estimates

Notes: Figures for greenhouse gas emissions are updated annually due to ongoing improvements to data collection or estimation techniques

2. Power Sector

2.1 Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated

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Sources: Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990-2023

BEIS Energy Trends Special Feature

Notes: Figures for greenhouse gas emissions are updated annually due to ongoing improvements to data collection or estimation techniques

2.2 Electricity generation by fuel type

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Source: BEIS Energy Trends Special Feature

Notes: Includes generation from both Major Power Producers (MPP) and other generators

Whether an increase/decrease in gas use is positive or negative with respect to greenhouse gas emissions will depend on the electricity source in the absence of the gas. For example, burning less coal and more natural gas would help reduce emissions because natural gas results in lesser emissions than coal

3. Building Sector

3.1 Residential greenhouse gas emissions per household

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Source: Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990-2023

NI Annual Housing Stock Statisitcs Notes: Housing stock figures include vacant properties.

Figures for greenhouse gas emissions are updated annually due to ongoing improvements to data collection or estimation techniques.

3.2 Housing stock with energy efficiency measure

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Source: House Condition Survey

Notes: No further update, The Northern Ireland House Condition Survey (NIHCS) took place in 2023. However at the time of this publication the results were yet to be announced.

3.3 Mean Standard Assessment Procedure rating for dwelling stock

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Source:House Condition Survey

Notes: No further update, The Northern Ireland House Condition Survey (NIHCS) took place in 2023. However at the time of this publication the results were yet to be announced.

3.4 Grants processed for energy efficiency measures

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Source: Department for Communities, Strategic Planning & Resources Branch

Notes: The Warm Homes Scheme ended on 31 March 2015 and has been replaced by the Affordable Warmth Scheme. The heating options for these schemes are quite different, so they cannot be directly compared. The Affordable Warmth Scheme started in September 2014, however the numbers between then and March 2015 are too small to report.

Insulation measures includes loft, cavity wall and solid wall insulation.

Numbers for 2020/21 likely to be affected by COVID-19, during lockdown the NIHE Grants Offices were only able to address emergency cases (those without heating).

3.5.1 Primary energy source for heating of residential buildings

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Source: House Condition Survey

Notes: No further update, The Northern Ireland House Condition Survey (NIHCS) took place in 2023. However at the time of this publication the results were yet to be announced.

3.5.2 Primary energy source for heating of residential buildings

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FIGURE 3.5.XLSX (7kB)

Source: Continuous Household Survey Heat and Insulation Results 2024/25

Notes: 1. Electric Heating includes Electric Storage Heaters (e.g. Economy 7), Electric Fire/ Heater and Dimplex Radiators.

Primary heating method respondent options included Other and None. The counts for these options are less than one percent or zero and have been excluded from the chart. Therefore, totals may not add to 100%.
The 2015/16 response options for primary heating method included Range and Gas Fire. The counts for these have been included in the figure for Open/Closed Fire or Stove. These options were not available in other years.
This chart includes error bars, which represent the range in which we are 95% confident the true value lies.

4. Industry Sector

4.1 Number of participants in the Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme

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Table 4.1 Number of Participants in the Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme

Source: UK Environment Agency, Carbon reduction Commitment Annual report publication

Notes: Taken from the spreadsheet by filtering on those where ‘NI Environment Agency’ is the Regulator. No further updates available, scheme closed in March 2019

4.2 CO2 emissions from participants in the Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme

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Source: UK Environment Agency, Carbon reduction Commitment Annual report publication

Notes: Due to changes to the Carbon Reduction Commitment energy efficiency scheme, it is not possible to directly compare 2010/11 - 2011/12 with 2012/13 - 2013/14 or 2014/15 - 2018/19

Reductions in emissions should be treated with caution due to the loss of participants because of mergers, site closures and the economic downturn

These figures were revised in October 2020 to maintain consistency with the figures published in the annual report, these may be revised as a result of internal review or audit

No further updates available, scheme closed in March 2019

5. Transport Sector

5.1 CO2 emissions of licenced cars

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Source: Department for Transport, Licensed Cars (VEH206) ,Vehicle Excise Duty

Notes: [b] Break in series due to various factors. As a result, figures in each period are not directly comparable with other periods

2017 Q2: Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) bands are changed for cars registered for the first time

2018 Q3/Q4: Cars registered prior to September 2018 reported a NEDC figure; those between September 2018 and December 2018 reported either a NEDC or an e-NEDC figure

2019 Q1: Cars registered from January 2019 to March 2020 reported an e-NEDC figure

2020 Q2: Cars registered from April 2020 onwards reported a WLTP figure. Whilst the e-NEDC figure was designed to be broadly ‘equivalent’ with an NEDC figure, the new WLTP figure is typically about 20% higher for petrol and diesel cars

More information on VED is available at: Refer to Vehicle Licensing Statistics documentation

More information on the NEDC and WLTP measurements is available at: Vehicle Licensing Statistics- Notes and Definitions

Data are presented where over half of licensed cars have available CO2 emissions data

5.2 Road transport emissions per vehicle kilometre travelled

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Sources: Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland: 1990-2023,

Northern Ireland Road Safety Strategy to 2020 Annual Statistical Report 2022; Table 5,

Travel Survey for Northern Ireland

Notes: Figures for greenhouse gas emissions are updated annually due to ongoing improvements to data collection or estimation techniques. The 2023 figures may be reviewed on further published data.

The vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) for 2020 is calculated using data from the Travel Survey for Northern Ireland (Department for Infrastructure). Normally 3 years of data are combined as sample size is relatively small, however, the 2020 data is reported as a single year in the Travel Survey. This is due to methodological changes and because 2020 was an exceptional year with travel restrictions in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

5.3 Average distance travelled per person per year by mode of transport

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Source: Travel Survey for Northern Ireland headline report 2021

Notes: There were a number of significant changes to the survey methodology in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These changes, and the fact that 2020 was an exceptional year, mean that data is reported as a single year and not directly comparable to previous years.

5.4 Mode of transport

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Source: Travel Survey for Northern Ireland headline report 2021

5.5 Bus passengers, distanced travelled

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Sources: Public Transport Statistics Northern Ireland

Notes: These data are supplied by Translink and should be viewed as management information rather than Official Statistics

CityBus became Metro with effect from 2005. Glider was introduced in September 2018 Whether a decrease in passenger journeys by bus is good or bad for greenhouse gas emissions will depend on why the journeys have decreased

For example, if it is a result of more car journeys then this would mean higher greenhouse gas emissions, whereas cycling would result in lower emissions

During 2020/21 there were movement restrictions in place across NI due to COVID-19

5.6 NI Rail service passengers, distance travelled

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Sources: Northern Ireland Transport Statistics

Notes: These data are supplied by Translink and should be viewed as management information rather than Official Statistics

There has been a discontinuity in this series due to a methodological change. Figures for 2013/14 and onwards cannot be compared with earlier years

During 2020/21 there were movement restrictions in place across NI due to COVID-19

5.7 Plug-in cars, vans and quadricycles licensed

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Source: Department for Transport, Vehicle Licensing Statistics, Table VEH0141

Notes: Figures include all models identified as being battery electric, plug-in hybrid electric, or range-extended electric, most but not all of these will be models eligible for the Department for Transport Plug In Car or Van grants

For more details, see: Low-emission vehicles eligible for a plug-in grant

The location of the registered keeper is based on the contact address held by DVLA, and does not necessarily reflect where the vehicle is kept

6. Agriculture Sector

6.1 Emissions intensity of milk production

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Source: Greenhouse Gas Emissions on NI Dairy Farms, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs

Notes: Due to minor updates to the Dairy Greenhouse Gas calculator used to calculate figures for this indicator, caution should be applied when making comparisons between 2015 and the previous five years - see user guidance document for further details.